Foreign direct investment, regional market conditions and regional development

This paper uses regional panel data to investigate the mechanism whereby foreign direct investment (FDI) has contributed to China's regional development through quantifying regional marketization levels. It is found that FDI inflow generates a demonstration effect in identifying regional market conditions for investment in fixed assets and hence affects industrial location. In addition, its effects on regional export and regional income growth have varied across east, central and west China since the second half of the 1990s, depending on differences in FDI orientation between different regions. In east China, geographical advantage in exports attracts FDI inflow and FDI promotes exports. In addition, the rise of the FDI–GDP ratio increases east China's share in national industrial value added. These effects contribute positively to regional income growth in east China although there is a direct crowding‐out effect between FDI and domestic investment (as input) in growth. In contrast, the negative impact of FDI inflow on regional export orientation in central China weakens its contribution to regional income growth. Furthermore, the contribution of the improvement in the market mechanism to regional development is evidenced in attracting FDI, in promoting export and directly contributing to regional income growth.     

Human capital, economic growth, and regional inequality in China

We show how regional growth patterns in China depend on regional differences in physical, human, and infrastructure capital as well as on differences in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. We also evaluate the impact of market reforms, especially the reforms that followed Deng Xiaoping's “South Trip” in 1992 those that resulted from serious hardening of budget constraints of state enterprises around 1997. We find that FDI had a much larger effect on TFP growth before 1994 than after, and we attribute this to the encouragement of and increasing success of private and quasi-private enterprises. We find that human capital positively affects output and productivity growth in our cross-provincial study. Moreover, we find both direct and indirect effects of human capital on TFP growth. These impacts of education are more consistent than those found in cross-national studies. The direct effect is hypothesized to come from domestic innovation activities, while the indirect impact is a spillover effect of human capital on TFP growth. We conduct cost-benefit analysis of hypothetical investments in human capital and infrastructure. We find that, while investment in infrastructure generates higher returns in the developed, eastern regions than in the interior, investing in human capital generates slightly higher or comparable returns in the interior regions. We conclude that human capital investment in less-developed areas is justified on efficiency grounds and because it contributes to a reduction in regional inequality.     

外国直接投资对国内投资的影响及区域差异——基于省级面板数据的广义矩法估计

利用我国1985~2005年的经济数据,以各个省市为观测对象建立面板数据模型,并采用广义矩方法对模型进行估计,在此基础上检验外国直接投资对我国国内投资的动态影响及区域差异。研究表明,对全国整体而言,外国直接投资对我国国内投资的影响表现为挤入效应,但在局部地区如东部地区,已经出现了较明显的挤出效应。     

人民币实际有效汇率对地区经济增长差异的影响研究

本文基于凯恩斯宏观经济模型,对人民币实际有效汇率波动对我国各地区经济增长产生的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明:人民币实际有效汇率上升通过影响进出口、外商直接投资和原始货币供应量三个途径,对我国各地区经济增长普遍存在着抑制效应;但对不同地区的影响程度有所差异,其中东部地区最大,西部地区最小;这表明人民币实际有效汇率上升对于缩小近年来不断拉大的地区经济增长差距具有积极作用。虽然缩小地区经济发展差距是现阶段我国构建和谐社会的重要内容,但人民币汇率政策依然应该将实现内外均衡作为自己的核心目标,以避免目标多样化而弱化政策效应。     

信任及其解释:来自中国的跨省调查分析

“信任”被普遍认为是除物质资本和人力资本之外决定一个国家经济增长和社会进步的主要社会资本。华人社会在许多跨文化研究中被认为是低信任度的社会 ,而在国内 ,许多学者已用“信任危机”概括人与人关系的现状。本文试图通过中国跨省的信任调查数据 ,揭示信任对一个地区的经济绩效 ,例如企业规模、企业发展速度、引进外资等的影响 ,进一步分析影响信任的因素。我们的发现表明 ,一个地区能否被人们所信任与地域文化并不紧密相关 ,更重要的是跟人们之间的交易被重复的可能性、交易的发达程度、教育水平等因素有关。这些证据支持了经济学理论中关于重复博弈导致信任的基本假说。     

The role of Provincial Government Spending Composition in growth and convergence in China

China’s development policy since 1978 has differed across regions. With rapid aggregate growth has come widening regional inequality. The fiscal decentralisation reforms in 1994 shifted political pressure onto provincial officials to boost local growth through local public investments. These investments affect regional convergence by counteracting regulatory frictions in factor accumulation, and can also determine steady-state growth. However, the effect of public spending allocations across physical and human capital on growth and convergence processes is empirically unexplored for Chinese provinces. We take provincial time-series data on public spending by category, finding local public spending and its components augment convergence rates differently across regions. Spending on education and health contributes significantly more to growth and convergence than capital spending, confirming that the public capital-spending bias is not a local growth-optimising strategy. We suggest a policy of aligning local government promotion incentives to human capital targets to correct local resource misallocation.     

FDI与产业结构升级:西部的实证分析

FDI对区域经济增长的影响,需要依靠区位优势在产业结构升级中体现,FDI对区域经济增长的产业结构调整具有明显的资源补充和产业引导功能。西部地区的开发要实现增长方式的转变,要充分发挥FDI的作用,引进外资和技术实现产业结构整合和区位优势。针对我国西部地区经济增长的产业发展现状,如何实现FDI与区位产业发展优势的有效结合,引导FDI的溢出绩效和产业收敛效应成为中西部地区经济增长与政策制定的关键。以陕西区域经济增长数据为背景,分析了FDI对产业结构的影响。结果表明,在西部区域经济发展中,FDI的作用还需要在产业结构升级换代中不断强化,在政策上进行有效调整和引导。     

中国省区TFP测算及影响因素分析

本文依据1998 -2007年中国28个省区的相关数据,采用修正索洛模型和随机前沿模型测算了中国省区历年的全要素生产率水平和增长率,并利用静态和动态面板数据模型检验了R&D、人力资本、进口、出口以及外商直接投资对我国省区全要素生产率的影响.结果显示,我国省区全要素生产率水平总体呈上升趋势,而增长率则趋于下降,并且地区差距明显.地区间R&D、出口、人力资本对我国省区全要素生产率水平的提高具有显著的正向作用,而外商直接投资和进口的正向作用并不明显;出口对中国省区全要素生产率增长率的提高有明显促进作用,而进口则对其具有明显的阻碍作用,R&D、人力资本及外商直接投资对全要素生产率增长率的提高虽有促进作用,但它们在静态和动态面板数据模型中的显著性则有所差异;另外,研究还发现,中国省区全要素生产率具有显著的“滞后效应”.     

人口集聚能促进区域技术创新吗

基于2005-2014年中国省级面板数据,使用固定效应、随机效应和系统广义矩估计方法,通过区分一般人口集聚和人才集聚两个指标,研究了人口集聚对区域技术创新的影响,并分析了不同区域之间两者关系的异同。研究结果表明：一般人口集聚和区域技术创新之间呈“正U型关系”,同时人才集聚显著促进了区域技术创新。在不同区域层面,一般人口集聚在东部和西部地区均存在“正U型”关系,且对于西部地区技术创新的作用比东部地区更大,但在中部地区,两者关系并未呈现“U型”关系,而是呈持续负向影响。此外,相比东部地区,人才集聚对于中部和西部地区技术创新的作用更强。     

Trade and Inequality with Limited Labor Mobility: Theory and Evidence from China

Does globalization increase inequality in developing countries, and if so, how? In a theoretical model of a regionally heterogeneous economy, we show how different regional rates of technical progress due to trade and FDI interact with constraints to unskilled labor mobility. As favored regions benefit more from trade, their growing demand for skills drains skilled workers from disadvantaged areas, and average incomes in the former grow faster than in the latter. Moreover, this unbalanced regional growth may also raise inequality within each region. It could even reduce absolute income per capita in the less favored region. We test these predictions with Chinese data from the Open Door era. Results confirm that different regional growth rates have increased both interregional and intraregional inequality. Moreover, growth of skills‐based export industries in coastal regions is associated, other things equal, with lower incomes for the poor in inland provinces.     

How does FDI affect China? Evidence from industries and provinces

Using the latest panel data from 19 industries and 30 provinces in China, we found it is not true that more FDI necessarily brings about more output growth across the board. Local industries without foreign participation lose while those with some participation gain from the inflow. Provinces in western and central regions lose while those in the eastern and coastal regions appear to be the major beneficiaries. While the net effect of FDI is still positive, the regional disparity has been growing. It casts doubt on the rationale of haphazard and lavish policies to compete for FDI in China. Journal of Comparative Economics 35 (4) (2007) 774–799.     

国际人才流入是否影响我国FDI区位选择

根据相关经验研究及理论模型可知,国际人才流入可通过降低国际贸易壁垒提高贸易自由度。利用2006-2013年中国内地29个省市面板数据,实证分析了国际人才流入对FDI区位分布的影响。结果显示,国际人才流入与地区FDI水平显著正相关,但国际人才流入对FDI区位分布的影响存在一定区域差异。同时,国际人才流入与企业经营环境及地理集聚水平之间存在某种替代效应,即国际人才流入能够在一定程度上弥补由于企业经营环境缺失和地理集聚水平低下带来的负面影响。此外,良好的企业经营环境和较高的地理集聚水平也对FDI区位分布具有重要影响。上述结论对于我国进一步提升外商直接投资国际竞争力及促进我国FDI区域分布平衡具有重要理论参考价值,同时也对其它新兴发展中国家具有启示作用。     

地区间接融资的金融市场和外商直接投资的正溢出效应

利用我国各省市1985—2004年面板数据分析FDI在地区经济发展中的贡献差异,结果发现,FDI和经济增长没有必然的正相关关系,但是间接融资市场发展比较好的省市,FDI对当地经济的增长有很明显的正溢出效应。因此,加快地区间接融资市场发展,增强FDI的产业后向关联,对于提高FDI对我国地区经济增长的正溢出效应十分重要。     

外商直接投资对中国区域经济增长的影响

改革开放以来 ,我国区域经济发展呈现出典型的二元结构特征。这种二元结构的形成与外商投资分布的不平衡密切相关。本文利用 1 985— 1 999年时间序列和横断面数据 ,对外商投资对中国区域经济增长的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明 ,在这期间 ,东部发达地区与西部落后地区之间GDP增长率的差异 ,大约有 90 %是由外商投资引起的。     

环境规制约束下FDI对中国科技创新与经济高质量发展的影响——基于中介效应与门槛效应的机制检验

基于2003—2019年中国内地30个省份面板数据，运用中介效应、门槛效应模型实证检验FDI对我国技术创新与经济高质量发展的影响，并进行机制分析。研究发现：第一，在环境规制约束下，FDI技术溢出效应显著，FDI能够促进我国经济高质发展，现阶段环境规制具有“创新补偿”效应；FDI与环境规制的交互项能够显著促进经济高质量发展，环境规制对FDI发挥一定的正向筛选作用。第二，在考虑内生性后，FDI、环境规制及其交互项对经济高质量发展影响的核心结论依然成立，并且存在区域异质性。第三，两种中介效应检验结果显示，FDI通过技术创新机制作用于我国经济高质量发展。第四，整体而言，FDI通过技术创新水平这一中介路径对经济高质量发展产生负向影响，与理论预期不符。     

本土技术转移与国际技术转移效应的比较——基于省际数据的空间计量分析

技术转移与技术效率增长之间存在密切关系。文章首先应用SFA方法测度了2003～2008年的中国技术效率;其次,运用空间计量方法研究了技术转移与技术效率增长之间的关系。实证分析表明,中国地区间的技术效率在2003～2008年具有明显的空间相关性;技术转移对中国技术效率有着显著的正向影响。就整个宏观层面来看,FDI带来的技术效率提高最明显,这与FDI所带动的技术扩散溢出、制度创新密切相关;虽然国外技术直接引进对技术效率的影响在多数年份超过国内技术市场的影响,但是,近几年国内技术市场对技术效率的影响明显提高。就各地区来看,东部地区的国外直接技术引进对提升其技术效率效果最明显,而中西部地区的FDI技术转移对其技术效率提升效果最为明显。     

我国外商直接投资地区分布影响因素研究——基于空间面板数据模型

外商直接投资(FDI)在我国空间分布的显著非均衡性引发了大量有关FDI区位选择的经验研究,但相关研究往往忽视了FDI的空间依赖性对其区域分布的影响.基于此,本文选取我国1990-2004年28个省区的数据资料,从地区固定效应和时间固定效应两方面对空间面板数据模型进行估计,考察FDI的空间相关性对我国FDI地区分布的影响.研究发现,空间面板数据模型对现实FDI地区分布的拟合效果更好、解释力更强;我国各省FDI的区位分布存在正向的空间相关性,相邻地区吸引外资的增加能够带动本地区吸引更多的外商投资.     

The spatial correlation and interaction between environmental regulation and foreign direct investment

This paper uses spatial simultaneous equation models to analyze the two-way mechanism between environmental regulation and foreign direct investment (FDI). The results, based on data from 285 cities in China from 2003 to 2014, show the following. (1) Not only does environmental regulation have a significant impact on the location choice of FDI, but FDI tends to flow to a city with more relaxed environmental regulation. Environmental regulation can also trigger the near transfer effect of FDI. (2) FDI has a significant spatial spillover effect and this spatial spillover effect has an important impact on FDI and environmental regulation in a particular city. (3) Although multinationals choose a city with more relaxed environmental regulations when they invest in China, FDI inflows have increased both the number and severity of local environmental regulations, indicating that the “pollution haven” hypothesis does not hold in China. (4) Environmental regulation has a significant spatial spillover effect, and this spatial spillover effect has an important impact on both environmental regulation and FDI in cities. In China, there is also a local competitive effect of environmental regulation, albeit with significant regional differences.     

The Role of Foreign Direct Investment on Income Convergence in China after Early 1990s from a Spatial Econometric Perspective

This paper introduces foreign direct investment (FDI) as an endogenous variable based on a neoclassical model of economic growth and investigates the impact of FDI on income convergence in China using provincial panel data from 1991 to 2007. A spatial model is later exploited to further examine the effect of FDI on convergence in China in light of remarkable and positive spatial correlations among neighboring regions. Results of estimates confirm the role of FDI inflow as a significant driving force to promote conditional convergence in China after the early 1990s. They also confirm that the non‐spatial classical model underestimates the impact of FDI on regional economic growth and also underestimates the speed of convergence.     

我国FDI技术溢出效应研究述评

外国直接投资的技术溢出效应问题是一个重要的理论和实践问题,近年来我国对这一问题的研究取得了一定进展,特别是对FDI技术溢出效应的影响因素、FDI技术外溢对技术创新和经济增长的影响、区域差别对FDI技术外溢的影响以及FDI技术外溢路径等问题的研究有所创新和突破。