中国货币政策对资产价格波动反应的模拟分析

利用包含汇率波动和通胀预期的IS-Philips模型推导考虑资产价格的货币政策反应函数。在此基础上,分别以股价和房价作为资产价格的代理变量,模拟分析了资产价格波动对中国经济的影响。研究结果表明:考虑资产价格的货币政策在平抑产出和物价波动方面具有显著作用,但会增大利率波动幅度;考虑房价波动的货币政策比考虑股价波动的货币政策在平抑产出和物价波动方面具有更好的效果;与考虑股价波动的货币政策相比,考虑房价波动的货币政策对利率的冲击更小。     

利率效果区域异质性、收入跨区 影响与房价溢出效应*

本文首先构建了理论分析框架,解释了中国不同城市间房价溢出效应、收入对房价的跨区影响,以及利率调整对不同城市房价的区域异质性影响。本文利用GVAR模型对该框架进行了实证,结果显示北京等一线城市的房价波动对其他城市具有较大的溢出性,而中西部城市的房价溢出性则不明显。一线城市和东部城市的房价波动不仅受本城市人均收入变动的影响,还在很大程度上受其他城市收入变动的影响,而中西部城市的房价则主要受本城市收入变动的影响。利率变动对一线城市和东部城市的房价影响则较大,而对中西部城市的房价影响有限。本文结论具有明确的政策含义,比如政府应通过稳定一线城市房价以达到稳定全国房价的目的,促进公共产品均等化,实行地区差异化的房地产政策等。通过利率调整来调控房价也是一个可行的政策选项。     

中国房地产价格波动区域差异的实证分析

本文首先定性地比较了各地房价的波动,发现其波动具有明显的地区不平衡性。进一步,本文基于误差修正模型形式的paneldata模型讨论了房价区域波动的差异,并分析了造成各地区房价波动差异的原因,尤其是货币政策效应的区域差异。结论如下:无论是房价的长期趋势还是短期波动,信贷规模对东、西部地区影响都比较大,中部地区较小,表明政府实施的信贷政策对调控东、西部地区的房价是有效的。实际利率对各区域影响差异不大,且影响较小。人均GDP无论长期还是短期对中部地区房价影响都比较大,表明中部地区房地产市场的发展更多地依赖于该地区的经济发展状况。房价的预期变量在东部地区对房价的短期波动有较大影响。     

流动性约束与货币政策的资产价格效应

本文在新凯恩斯主义分析框架下,基于一个动态随机模型探讨了代理人消费流动性约束下的货币政策的资产价格效应,得到下列结论：资产价格波动通过财富效应影响代理人的消费。以利率为操作目标的最优货币政策应对股价、房价等资产价格波动做出反应,而其反应强度依赖于受流动性约束的代理人所占的比重。由于资产价格波动导致了流动性约束的时变性,最优利率规则对股价、房价等资产价格波动的最优权重也具有时变性。本文的实证分析表明,我国央行对房价和股价波动的利率调整具有时变性,以及此次金融危机爆发期间显现的这种时变性特征,与本文理论分析结果相吻合。     

基于时变参数和VAR模型的土地政策和货币政策对房价影响作用机制研究

笔者通过考察地价和利率对房价波动的动态影响关系,探讨土地政策和货币政策对房价的作用机制.通过构建状态空间模型,利用卡尔曼滤波进行参数估计,探讨地价和利率对房价影响的变化规律;运用VAR模型中的脉冲响应函数和方差分解,考察地价、利率、房价三者之间的相互作用情况.实证结果表明地价对房价始终有较大的正向影响,而利率对房价的影响作用不明显,房价对地价的冲击当期就会显示出来,而地价对房价的冲击滞后一期才会产生影响.     

异质有限理性预期与城市住房价格波动

本文基于异质有限理性预期,将更为广泛的有限理性预期模式纳入到房地产价格决定模型之中,并利用我国35个大中城市2002～2010年的动态面板数据分析了异质预期对于城市住房价格波动的作用.研究发现,房价并没有与经济基本面相偏离,人均可支配收入、利率和房价预期都会影响房价,但收入水平和利率的决定作用有限,房价预期对于城市住房价格波动的解释力最强.异质的预期模式对于房价波动也具有明显不同的作用,适应性预期和一般有限理性预期能够自发地调节房价,将房价波动限制在一定的范围之内并逐渐实现住房市场的稳定.     

风险规避及投资案例

潜在风险(一)利率风险利率风险是指企业由于利率波动而引起的对未来收益、资产或债务价值的波动性或不确定性所可能导致的损失。比如利率上升引起企业支出成本的上升及资产价值的下降。     

风险规避及投资案例——潜在风险

（一）利率风险 利率风险是指企业由于利率波动而引起的对未来收益、资产或债务价值的波动性或不确定性所可能导致的损失。比如利率上升引起企业支出成本的上升及资产价值的下降。     

宏观共同因子、特质因子以及货币政策对中国各线城市房价的影响——基于FAVAR模型

运用FAVAR模型,将中国各线城市房价分离出宏观共同因子和特质因子部分,研究了各因子及货币政策对房价的影响。研究发现:大城市的房价更易受宏观共同因子和地区特质因子的影响,且变动的持续性更大;共同因子可在很大程度上解释房价变动的持续性和波动性;共同因子对房价的影响较为持久,而地区特质因子只在短期内影响房价;利率和货币供应量可以有效地影响房价;相比利率,货币供应量对一线和二线城市房价水平的影响更大,对各线城市房价波动的影响更为持久;一线城市的房价水平及其波动对货币政策冲击的敏感度较高,二线城市的敏感度居中,三线城市的敏感度较低;未发现货币政策的"价格之谜"现象,表明本文模型设定的合理性较强。     

中国房地产价格波动的动态分析

本文采用VAR模型对中国房地产市场1991年1月到2007年12月的月度数据进行分析。结果发现房地产需求、中长期贷款额增加以及证券市场的上扬会促使房地产价格上升,而房地产供给和实际利率的增加会降低房价。VEC模型则表明房地产前期价格、房地产供给、中长期贷款额和实际利率是房价短期波动的主要因素。因此增加房地产供给、严格审核中长期贷款可有效减少房价波动并降低房价。     

我国房地产税制的现状及改革构想

房地产税制是维护房地产市场公平竞争，实现国家对房地产业宏观调控的有力杠杆。然而，我国现行的房地产税制却存在税费不分、税制不统一、税制结构不合理等诸多问题。严重影响了其对房地产业应有的宏观调控作用。因此，适时地推进房地产税制的改革应是当务之急，应统一内外税制，合理界定税费的范围，建立统一、规范、合理的房地产税收体系。     

Public participation in forestry in Turkey

Recently public participation in forestry has been seriously considered in Turkey. Participation is however quite a challenge for a country with a long tradition of top-down management and a strong bottom-up dependence on public provisioning. In such a setting, it may not be surprising that the experiences with public participation in forestry in Turkey are mixed. There are some positive initiatives like the creation of farmer's cooperatives and NGOs, but their role is quite limited and small of scale. This paper is bringing together different views based on existing studies in Turkish related to Turkey's experience with implementing public participation in forestry.     

上海生态农业发展影响因素研究

文章分析了上海生态农业发展的影响因素,并利用计量模型进行检验,认为影响上海生态农业发展的主要因素有农业基础设施、农业劳动力资源、农业产业化水平、农业科技实力状况。     

Is wealth found in the soil or in the brain? Investing in farm people in Malawi

Should a typical developing country invest more in agriculture or education? At what stage of development is it optimal to invest more in each of these sectors? These are important questions that governments of developing countries grapple with when designing investment plans. In this paper, I propose a soil–human capital conceptual framework of development and use it to explain estimates of agricultural returns to schooling in Malawi. I use panel survey data for Malawi and rely on the exogenous education policy changes and spatial variation in access to schooling to identify effects of schooling on agricultural incomes. In addition, I correct for selection into income activities within a panel data and instrumental variables estimation framework. I find annual agricultural returns to schooling in Malawi of 3%–4% after correcting for selection and unobserved heterogeneity and 7% in the uncorrected specifications. I also find consistently higher returns to schooling in the nonagricultural sector for those not living in the village of birth and higher returns in the agricultural sector for those living in the village of birth. Given the size of the farm sector, wealth in Malawi is still in the soil, but that future growth in wealth depends on human capital investments.     

西部地区人力资本投资与知识化发展

人力资本投资在推动知识化发展的过程中存在自增强机制，通过促进人力资本保值增值，进行人力资源合理配置，改善配置环境和配置政策、完善配套措施，有助于充分发挥这一机制的功能，从而实现西部地区知识化发展。     

Inter-enterprise arrears in economies in transition

In the context of economies in transition, the paper argues that an excessive liquidity squeeze could throw the economy into a persistent state of low economic activity. In such bad equilibrium, enterprise transactions become largely demonetized, with a chain of arrears, a form of involuntary credit, spreading over the entire system. The empirical analysis of the Romanian experience seems to support the view advanced in the paper.     

2010年黑龙江省宏观经济展望

受世界金融危机的影响,从2008年下半年起黑龙江省经济持续走低,2009年一季度跌入谷底。2009年前三季度,在国家扩大内需的政策刺激下,黑龙江省经济企稳回升,但经济运行中还存在出口下滑、物价水平较低等问题,经济下行的压力仍然存在,经济持续回升的基础尚待巩固。展望2010年,国家将继续实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,随着政策效应的逐步释放,内需对经济的拉动作用仍将十分强劲,另外,随着世界经济的复苏,黑龙江省外贸形势也将逐渐好转,在＂投资、消费、出口＂这三驾马车的共同作用下,2010年黑龙江省经济将步入全面复苏通道。     

Agricultural Roots in Intergenerational Transfers in China

Economists have been interested in the motivations of intergenerational transfers, for different motivations affect the effectiveness of anti-poverty public transfers. However, one’s motivation is largely shaped by culture and social conventions. This paper sheds light on the influence of rice cultivation in intergenerational transfers in China. This is also the first time that economists consider cultural factors in the study of intergenerational transfers. Cultivating rice requires elaborate irrigation systems and large amounts of labor input so that rice farmers have to cooperate extensively with their neighbors, which has gradually shaped people’s value to be more inter-dependent. Based on micro-level data from CHARLS and sub-national rice data from China, our empirical results show strong evidence that individuals from rice regions are more likely to provide economic support for their parents. A one-percentage point increase in the share of rice in the total grain planting area will raise transfer incidence by 0.2–0.4 percentage points, and rice region residents transfer on average 300–400 yuan more in 2011 and about 1,000 yuan more in 2013 to their parents than those from wheat regions. Meanwhile they are more inclined to rely on their adult children for elderly support. Urban citizens are less affected. Using instrumental variable estimation, we are able to prove the effect is causal. With future continued deepening of population aging in China, relying on children for old age support may become more and more unrealistic, the government needs to coordinate the relationship between public transfer and private transfer to ensure the quality of life for the elderly.     

Gender Differences in Time-Poverty in Rural Mozambique

Based on time-use data from a 2013 primary household survey, this study examines the nature and extent of time-poverty experienced by men and women in peasant households in Mozambique. The main findings indicate that while women's labor allocation to economic activities is comparable to that of men, household chores and care work are almost entirely women's responsibility. The heavy burden of responsibilities leave women significantly time-poorer compared to men. Women's time-poverty worsens when the burden of simultaneous care work is taken into account. In addition, due to multitasking, the work tends to be more taxing. The examination of determinants of time-poverty shows that common measures of individual economic power, such as assets and education, do not necessarily affect the time-poverty faced by women.     

Trade-offs in sulfur emission trading in Europe

How to implement emission trading is one question in the current negotiations on a new sulfur protocol in Europe. Whereas the current protocol stipulates a 30 percent uniform reduction, national emission ceilings included in the proposed new protocol imply differentiated reductions. In addition, emission and fuel standards are proposed. This paper examines the costs and environmental impacts of emission trading. Emission trading combined with regulations is a new element in the paper. Calculations using the RAINS (Regional Acidification INformation and Simulation) model suggest that overlaying emission trading on regulations not only reduces the cost savings but has beneficial impacts as well: ecosystem protection is not changed and significant decreases in environmental benefits for countries are largely avoided. Emission trading can also be used to decrease emissions and increase ecosystem protection. If combined with existing legislation, emission trading minimizes losses in expected environmental benefits for some countries, and most countries gain. However, the initial distribution of emission ceilings has to be used so that some countries are not confronted with higher costs. Trade-offs appear to exist between the use of emission trading to achieve cost savings on the one hand, and ecosystem protection and distributional equity on the other.