彩票号码选择的行为经济学分析

本文对彩票购买者在购买彩票时选择投注号码的行为是否有悖于经济理性进行了分析,并利用中国福利彩票"3D游戏"2006年全年357期的开奖数据对国内彩票购买者的选择号码的行为模式进行了统计分析.分析显示,国内彩票购买者在进行投注时确实在按照一些特定的模式进行投注号码选择.这些模式包括:赌徒谬误、幸运号码偏好、大号码偏好、相同号码偏好、日历号码偏好等.这些模式可能是由于彩票购买者具有共同的社会和文化背景造成的,也可能是部分购买者不具有经济理性的反映.这些模式的存在为进一步研究彩票市场上可能存在的非理性行为提供了必要的基础.     

房地产市场噪声交易行为分析——基于进化博弈理论的视角

噪声交易是房地产市场长期存在的一种现象,理性交易者与噪声交易者也长期并存于房地产市场。本文运用进化博弈理论研究房地产市场噪声交易者行为,分析噪声交易行为的复制动态,得到了理性投资者不可能利用投机行为把噪声交易者逐出市场的结论,同时给出了当博弈达到稳定均衡时选择理性交易策略和噪声交易策略的比例。     

交易活动中机会主义行为的集群治理

威廉姆森主要考察了不同特征的交易活动所适用的治理机制,但通过改变交易约束条件(不确定性、有限理性和专用性资产)来避免机会主义的情况没被考虑.作为协调交易的一种经济组织形式,集群采取了不同的思路和制度安排,可以解决交易中可能出现的机会主义.主要理由有两点:一是集群改变了交易者所面对的交易约束条件,使机会主义行为失去存在的前提;二是集群改变了交易者的博弈支付结构,即通过增加"敲竹杠"行为的机会成本,削弱了机会主义行为的实施动机.适用于集群来治理的交易活动主要有两种:一是交易各方的资产都具有专用性;二是具有规模经济的第三方治理.     

期房交易中房地产开发商和业主的动态博弈

中国房地产市场上期房交易频繁,开发商的诚信问题是广大消费者关注的重点。文章通过建立一个两阶段完全非完美信息博弈模型,对期房交易合同签订以后开发商和消费者的行为进行分析,并评价了政府在抑制房地产开发商不诚信行为中所起的作用。     

药品价格的博弈:药价虚高的成因与对策

药价虚高的原因来自于医疗机构的"内部人控制"现象。医疗机构和医生通过处方权垄断着药品分销的终端市场,利用自身的信息优势,同政府、患者进行三方博弈。医疗机构同政府的博弈使代理人有开高价药的偏好和可能,而医患之间的博弈使高档药的交易得以实现。前者问题的解决依赖于恰当的激励约束手段,后者问题的解决需要完备的制度来保障医生良好的职业行为。     

供需双方信息不完全、交易费用差异与火车票市场扭曲——对“倒票”行为的交易费用分析

本文不认为供求不均衡是“黄牛”倒票现象存在的根本原因。本文针对火车票市场套利行为屡禁不止的热点问题构造动态博弈模型，论证了交易费用与套利行为之间的关系。模型通过对需求方购票的交易费用进行比较，逐层深入地分析了增加产品供给、增加购买渠道和差别定价等途径的效果，发现此类举措并不能有效遏制“黄牛”行为，反而还损害了低收入消费者的福利。研究表明，即使在供需均衡的情况下，供需双方信息的不完全，尤其是需求群体内部的信息不完全程度存在差异，会造成需求群体交易费用的差异，进而导致需求群体内部的资源配置被扭曲，而这才是“黄牛”群体长期顽固存在的根本原因。本文选取2002—2016年火车票贩票情况的真实数据进行了实证分析，印证了博弈模型的结论。而降低这种扭曲程度的同时降低需求方交易费用之间的差距，才是解决此类产品市场上资源配置无效率问题最有效的办法。     

诚信数据库:对委托代理模型的改进

在我国,信用缺失使交易各方往往将交易看作是一次性博弈行为,造成交易各方经营成本大幅度攀升和社会资源的无效配置.所以,建立一套完整的对失信者行为具有普遍"记忆力"和"约束力"且功能长久的动态诚信数据库系统,将是解决这一问题的重要措施.本文在分析传统的委托代理模型存在缺陷的基础上,通过增加诚信度约束条件,使改进后的委托代理模型更能合理解释经济现实.     

企业并购风险的博弈分析

企业并购活动一般牵涉到并购企业、目标企业、其他相关企业和政府等多个利益主体,是一种多方博弈活动.企业并购交易的博弈模型,包括完全信息动态的讨价还价博弈和不完全信息动态博弈模型.进一步运用博弈模型并结合信息不对称、有限理性等因素,深入分析和探讨现实中企业并购风险的成因,着重指出经济利益主体的策略性行为和行为的交互作用使并购交易充满变数和不确定性程度增大,并购风险进一步被放大.最后,提出企业并购风险的分析框架.     

建设信用制度的博弈论分析

博弈是大千世界的生存法则,是人们在相互的经济交往中的策略选择行为.文章尝试分析信用交易双方的博弈关系,并运用博弈论中的"囚徒困境"模型,阐述了建设信用制度的重大意义.     

格莱明银行模式:基于关联博弈的分析

从关联博弈角度对格莱明银行模式进行了分析,认为格莱明银行小组贷款模式实现了贷款博弈与社会资本博弈的紧密结合,正是这种紧密关联博弈克服了成员贷款中的 "搭便车"行为.由于重复博弈的存在,社会资本成为一种可置信的威胁,保证了贷款协议的执行,成功克服了合约中产生的代理问题.格莱明银行模式对我国小额信贷激励机制的建立具有重要的参考价值.     

INVESTMENT IN HOSPITAL CARE TECHNOLOGY UNDER DIFFERENT PURCHASING RULES: A REAL OPTION APPROACH

Quality of health care is the product of several factors as the literature has long recognized. In this paper we focus on the relationship between quality and investment in health technology by analysing the optimal investment decision in a new health care technology of a representative hospital that maximizes its surplus in an uncertain environment. The new technology allows the hospital to increase the quality level of the care provided, but the investment is irreversible. The paper uses the framework of the real option literature to show how the purchaser might influence the quality level by setting a quality‐contingent long‐term contract with the hospital.The investment in new technology is in fact best incentivated within a long‐term contract where the number of treatments reimbursed depends on the level of investment made when the technology is new. In this way, asymmetry of information does not affect the outcome of the contract. In our model in fact the purchaser can verify the level of the investment only at the end of each period but the purchasing rule has an anticipating effect on the decision to invest.     

拟成果购买制架构中研究项目成果研究

拟成果购买制是一种以科研成果为依据而投入资金的新型科研资金投入体制。在这种体制下,其研究项目成果与现行科技项目成果既有联系,又存在差异。研究了拟成果购买制架构中的研究项目成果及其特点、购买者和定价。     

房地产业预售制度下的行为选择理论研究

本文从房地产开发商和购房者的行为选择角度探讨了房地产业的预售制度,明确回答了预售制度对于我国当前房地产业发展的重要性,认为对房地产预售制度调控的关键在于严厉打击房地产开发商和投机者的恶意炒作行为,促进合理市场预期的形成,建立合理的观测指标监控房地产业,通过对结构参数和预售融资比例的调整来调控企业行为,确保房地产业健康持续发展。     

Cross-Border Shopping: A Survey

The aim of this paper is to undertake a review of the most important literature on the phenomenon of fiscally induced cross-border shopping. Following the presentation of the principal theoretical models, the study concentrates on applied literature. Firstly, the elements common to the diverse applications are described, and then, a detailed analysis of the research undertaken into cross-border shopping for alcoholic drinks, tobacco, fuel, and lotteries is provided, concluding with a reference to the interaction between cross-border purchases and those effected over the internet. The results achieved by the empirical research coincide and support the principal result of the theoretical literature: the tax differentials between neighboring territories induce consumers to purchase in the territory where taxation is lower, on the condition that the tax saving compensates for the transport costs associated with the travel made by the purchaser in order to take advantage of the lower taxation.     

Manipulation and auditing of public sector contracts

We model purchaser–provider contracts when providers can inflate reimbursable activity through manipulation. Providers are audited and fined upon detected fraud. We characterise the optimal price and audit policy both in the presence and absence of commitment to an audit intensity. Under ‘non-commitment’ the audit intensity increases in reported activity, allowing the provider to soften it by reducing activity together with the underlying service quality and manipulation. The purchaser then faces a trade-off between offsetting this tendency by raising price and committing to a low audit intensity by reducing price. We identify circumstances under which the two forces balance out.     

Cost-effective health care: new data

The key to health care programs that meet their goals is to integrate data, coordinate care and ensure a patient-centered not cost-centered, focus. Then the purchaser can achieve the desired decrease in cost of care, increase in quality of care, improvement in quality of life, improvement in job performance, decrease in disability and decrease in absenteeism.     

Integrating Tax Distortions and Externality Theory

Tax distortions are interpreted as fiscal externalities. By purchasing a taxed commodity, the individual generates tax revenue that is a benefit external to the purchaser. Behaving noncooperatively, the individual chooses a quantity that is less than the efficient level. The excess burden is interpreted as the benefit of choosing quantities cooperatively. The analysis clarifies the difference between the marginal cost of funds and the marginal excess burden, and explains the presence of compensated demands in the Harberger Triangle, in the Index of Discouragement, and in the Ramsey Equations.     

上市公司财务失败的资产流动性因子分析

财务失败界定为由于财务状况异常而被退市风险誓示进入特殊处理版块。上市公司的资产流动性可通过12个变量指标。分别反映短期偿债能力、长期偿债能力、资产周转能力和现金流量运行情况。运用因子分析法建立模型。分析资产流动性可对财务失败起到一定的警示作用。     

Do Survey Probabilities Match Financial Market Beliefs?

This article considers whether survey respondents' views regarding the likelihood of stock index returns exceeding specific thresholds are comparable to market views indicated by index options with strikes at analogous thresholds. It is motivated by the observation that the wording used to elicit subjective beliefs in surveys about expected future returns resembles the question a purchaser of a call option might ask. Building on this association, the authors document a similarity between the views of survey respondents and those of financial market participants as measured through call options, although the association is not 1-for-1. They find a closer association for those demonstrating a better understanding of the laws of probability, suggesting that numeracy affects the accuracy of an elicited response.     

On a master-slave Bertrand game model

A master-slave Bertrand game model is proposed for upstream and downstream monopolies owned by different parties, in which the upstream monopolist's output is used as the main factor of production by the downstream monopolist who is a small purchaser of the upstream monopolist's output. The bifurcation of the Bertrand-Nash equilibrium is analyzed with Schwarzian derivative. Numerical simulations are employed to show the model's complex dynamics by means of the largest Lyapunov exponents (LLEs), bifurcation, time series diagrams and phase portraits. With the modified straight-line stabilization method, chaos control is used to improve the aggregate profits of the two oligopolists. Lastly the welfare impacts of price fluctuations and chaos controls are briefly discussed.