Beyond Balanced Growth

Balanced growth models are commonly used in macroeconomics because they are consistent with the well-known Kaldor facts regarding economic growth. These models, however, are inconsistent with one of the most striking regularities of the growth process-the massive reallocation of labour from agriculture into manufacturing and services. This paper presents a simple model consistent with both the Kaldor facts and the dynamics of sectoral labour reallocation.     

Porter model of economic development at the back of an envelope

The Porter model of economic development links the phases of development with national competitiveness. His model lies at the heart of the Global Competitiveness Index. It appears, curiously enough, that there is nowhere in the economics literature a concise explanation of the Porter model of economic development. This paper not only fills this gap but also draws the line of separation between formal economic models and narrative economic models; provides a rigorous presentation of Porter model of economic development; distinguishes between the Porter development path and Porter's law of economic development; strips Porter model to its bare essentials in a single picture; and finally, shows that the Porter model satisfies the condition known as the way the world works (www) constraint.     

Kaldor and Robinson on money and growth

Post-Keynesian theory was developed as an alternative to mainstream neoclassical economics. However, post-Keynesians have not succeeded in getting their message through, partly because of the difficult and controversial economic issues upon which they embarked, partly because they emphasized, both in their monetary and growth analysis, theories that do not radically depart from the mainstream of economics. This paper therefore argues that post-Keynesian economics got off on the wrong foot. Rather than having emphasized the works of Minsky and (the early) Kaldor in money, post-Keynesians should have considered the contributions of Robinson and Kahn. Also, rather than having emphasized the work of Robinson and Harrod on growth, they ought to have given greater emphasis to Kaldor's demand-oriented growth theory. Hence, as a simplification, post-Keynesians should have considered Robinson on money, not Kaldor; and Kaldor on growth, not Robinson.     

Unemployment and output dynamics in CIS countries: Okun’s law revisited

Okun’s law is a well-known relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and output growth. The main objective of this article is to provide a rigorous econometric analysis of Okun’s law for several CIS countries using different models and theoretically justified econometric methods. The traditional approach to Okun’s law estimation using OLS regressions does not account for possible endogeneity of regressors and the implied inconsistency of the estimates obtained. These problems point out to incorrectness of applications of the standard OLS estimation techniques. Our study addresses these issues by using econometrically justified instrumental variable regression methods. The article provides the results and discussions on practical use of Okun’s relationships for evaluation of average effects of economic growth on the unemployment rate, and vice versa; importance of accounting for confidence intervals in applications of Okun’s models to economic development analysis and cross-country comparisons and evaluation of effects of crises and other structural shocks on the economies considered. We also discuss in detail the results of formal econometric tests and economic motivation for validity of instrumental variables used in the study. The formal econometric tests, together with economic arguments, allow us to determine the most appropriate Okun-type models for each of the CIS countries under consideration.     

经济国有化与行政垄断制度的发展——基于制度变迁理论的经济史研究

文章在新制度经济学的理论框架下,对新中国的经济国有化和行政垄断制度的发展历程进行了经验研究。研究结果表明,行政垄断与国有经济存在很强的共生关系。当今中国的行政垄断是以法律法规形式存在的社会正式规则,它与国有经济、市场经济长期稳定共存,是转轨时期中国经济制度的一大特色。     

Economic Education in Schools and Universities in England

The authors review three aspects of economic education in England. They examine trends in undergraduate economics in England, principally in terms of recruitment and outcomes and connections with economics in schools. They also review formal instruction in schools through so-called “advanced level” courses for 16–19-year-old students and the role of the academic community in recent research in England on economic education.     

Nicholas Kaldor on Adam Smith and Allyn Young

ABSTRACT

Nicholas Kaldor was much influenced by the Smith-Young view of increasing returns. The objective of this paper is to critically examine Kaldor’s interpretation of Smith and Young. In particular, five questions are addressed: (1) Does Smith’s Wealth of Nations have nothing much to contribute in terms of disequilibrium theory or increasing returns after the middle of chapter four? (2) Did Smith and Young have a sectoral view of increasing returns in the sense that they saw increasing returns being confined to manufacturing only? (3) Does the Youngian growth mechanism need to be supplemented with Keynesian aggregate demand so that growth does not fizzle out? (4) What are the important policy differences between Kaldor and the Smith-Young analysis of increasing returns? (5) Finally, what explains Kaldor’s interventionist bent of mind and his dirigiste approach to policy making?     

LUCC模型研究的动态与趋势

国际地圈—生物圈计划(IGBP)和全球环境变化中的人文领域计划(IHDP)于1995年联合提出的LUCC研究已经成为目前全球变化研究的前沿和热点课题。建立模型是LUCC研究的重要手段,文章根据是否考虑空间、经济以及人类行为等因素将LUCC模型分为:空间非经济模型、经济非空间模型、空间经济模型、空间经济结构模型,并对此进行了论述,指出建立空间经济结构模型是LUCC模型研究的趋势,具体表现为数据的综合、方法的综合和理论的综合。     

Productivity growth of the cities of Jiangsu province,China: a Kaldorian approach

This paper considers the determinants of economic growth of the cities of Jiangsu province, China, adopting a Kaldorian approach. It is found that there is a close correlation between the growth of non-industry and industry (Kaldor’s first law) that provides indirect evidence for the export-base theory. The paper discusses two competing explanations of the foundations of the Verdoorn law (Kaldor’s second law), which, in its simplest form, is the relationship between industrial productivity and output growth. It also considers the static–dynamic Verdoorn law paradox. This arises from the fact that estimating the Verdoorn law in log-levels often gives statistically insignificant estimates of the Verdoorn coefficient while the use of growth rates gives significant values of around one half. The results show that this does not occur when data for the cities are used. A plausible explanation for the paradox is that it results from spatial aggregation bias. It is also found that inter-province urban productivity disparities first increase, but subsequently decrease over the period considered.     

From profit margins to income distribution: Joan Robinson's odyssey from marginal productivity theory

The point of departure for this paper is a 1941 Note on profit margins co-authored by Joan Robinson and Nicholas Kaldor that remained unpublished until 2000. Robinson's reviews of Henry Clay's The Problem of Industrial Relationships, Bresciani Turroni's The Economics of Inflation, and Roy Harrod's Towards a Dynamic Economics, along with her 1965 Cambridge Inaugural Lecture, may be interpreted as analogous documents that develop her critique of neoclassical wage theory and identify the money wage as the economy's ‘key’ price. These publications were critical steps toward the wage mark-up hypothesis and Post-Keynesian support of incomes policy to contain inflation. Robinson's Harrod review anticipated her later ideas about economic growth. With Kalecki's notion of ‘the degree of monopoly’ and her own concept of neo-mercantilism (from the Inaugural Lecture), these themes are nascent in the Robinson–Kaldor Note on profit margins.     

Investment behavior and investment aggregates during China’s economic transition

In view of the peculiar patterns of investment ownership structure and special investment phenomena in China, the paper sets up formal dynamic investment behavioral models for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-state-owned enterprises (NSOEs) under the background of full-dimensional and gradual economic transition. The models are based on two key points: entrepreneurs of SOEs have dual and changing operational objectives as the result of property-rights reformation; and dual-track approach of price liberalization process and reformation of financing system alters the actual user costs of capital goods. Analytical solutions are provided and it is shown that there exists a normative and unified explanation of the peculiar phenomena such as “investment deficiency” of NSOEs, “investment thirst”, “investment inefficiency,” and dual shrinkage of SOEs in both investment and output. Our research also sheds lights on evaluation of preceding reforms, understanding of SOEs’ losses and bad bank loans. The paper partially justifies the property-rights-oriented reformation of SOEs. __________ Translated from the China Economic Quarterly (经恎学季刊),2005, (7) (in Chinese)     

非正规金融发展的区域差异及其经济增长效应

中国非正规金融发展呈现出明显的区域差异,这与商业文化发达程度、正规金融对民营企业金融支持力度、民间资金丰裕度等因素有关.利用区域宏观经济数据在新古典经济增长理论框架下对金融发展的经济增长效应进行实证检验,文章发现非正规金融发展的区域差异对经济增长的区域差异具有显著的解释力.通过对金融发展水平指标的重新构建,文章认为正规金融与非正规金融均有显著的经济增长效应.     

非正式制度与中国农村经济体制改革

进一步推进中国的农村经济体制改革,是中国市场经济体制改革过程中迫切需要解决的问题。由于中国农村社会的“乡土社会”的性质,因此非正式制度在农村社会中发挥的作用比在城市社会中更为重要,在推进农村经济体制改革的过程中必须考虑非正式制度的因素,非正式制度与正式制度是不可分割、相互依存、互为补充的, 二者共同发挥着作用。     

经济学向何处去——金融危机以来的经济学反思

自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来,经济学界有关经济学的反思一直不断。理论方面,宏观经济理论和模型以及“有效市场假说”的有效性成为争论的焦点;政策领域,关于财政政策的有效性和通胀目标的设定出现了重大分歧;研究方法上,围绕着数学与经济学之间的关系以及经济学模型化方法纷争不断。然而,反思中也呈现出共识因素,从而揭示了经济学未来可能的发展方向。理论上,金融因素及更为现实的市场缺陷和摩擦因素将更多地被纳入经济学理论和模型中进行讨论,并且处理这些因素的模型也将更趋多元化;政策上,亟须发展出一套理论框架为财政政策和更为广泛的货币政策提供理论依据,货币政策将回归到数量工具、价格工具和其他工具并用的传统;方法上,超越数学的更为广泛意义上的多样化技术工具将积极发挥作用,模型会向更具现实性因而也更为复杂化的方向发展。除了危机的外部冲击外,经济学的这种路径转向可能还需要该学科内部制度性激励结构的相应变革。     

Cultural and economic integration of immigrant minorities: Analytical framework and policy implications

The cultural diversity that new immigrants bring to the host economy is potentially beneficial for the productivity of both immigrants and natives, but immigrants must assimilate to some extent for these benefits to be realized. In general, immigrants assimilate more slowly than natives would like, as they ignore the external material benefits of assimilation for natives and their resistance to foreign cultural influences. We develop a formal framework that highlights the complementarity between immigrants' cultural assimilation, economic integration, and investment in human capital, indicating the scope for mutually beneficial policies, offering immigrants material incentives to assimilate more rapidly.     

External debt and economic reform: does a pain reliever delay the necessary treatment?

Recent literature argues that conflict in shifting adjustment costs between different socioeconomic groups delays necessary reforms and finds that such reforms often follow economic crises. This paper expands these models by including external borrowing by the private sector and shows that this may lead to a further delay in economic reform. Empirical evidence based on a large panel of developing and emerging economies supports this argument and shows that the result is slower economic growth. External financing sometimes acts like a “pain reliever”, postponing the much needed “treatment” of a “sick” economy by reform.     

Credit money and Kaldor’s ‘institutional’ theory of income distribution

This paper combines two major contributions by Kaldor: the view that the supply of money, ensuing mainly from bank credit, is endogenous, and the framework which assigns a crucial role to the saving and investment behaviour of corporations in determining the general rate of profit (the neo‐Pasinetti theorem). Bank loans are introduced as another means of financing investment by firms, in addition to retained profits and the new issuance of shares. The proposed model provides a convenient framework in which two different approaches in the money‐endogeneity view are classified. Kaldor’s neo‐Pasinetti theorem is shown to hold for only one of these approaches and is then extended to include the influence of banks.     

中国二元经济结构演变与经济增长的实证分析

中国作为最大的发展中国家,具有典型的二元经济结构特征。为了使中国经济在整体上稳步前进,就要通过农村制度建设与创新、提高农民收入、实现城市化、工业化与现代化协调发展等途径来实现农村的全面进步和中国二元经济向一元经济的彻底转化。     

A Feminist Comparative Economic Systems

Abstract

This study proposes that feminist research be integrated into the field of comparative economic systems (CES) and that CES return to its traditional institutionalist methodologies to facilitate more complete analyses of economic systems and feminist alternatives to these systems and institutions. The study describes the evolution of CES, drawing attention to an increasing reliance on econometric modeling that reflects a shift in focus away from systems. An inventory of research on women and gender that has appeared in CES journals and textbooks finds little on topics other than formal labor markets in transition economies. The study contrasts this literature on women and gender in transition economies to research on this topic by women from transition economies, a literature that CES journal authors do not reference. It concludes by proposing a feminist economics approach that focuses on gender-differentiated impacts of economic systems, analyses of households, and equity as a measure of progress.     

Comment on the specification of structure-performance relationships

This paper contains a brief discussion of the limitations of reduced form estimation as a technique for testing models of industrial organization. It also reviews methodologies by which empirical models of industrial organization can be derived from economic theory, and concludes that models developed by reference to the literature should not be considered invalid simply because they are not given a formal mathematical presentation.