能源价格与中国碳排放量的调节

利用直接效用模型与岭回归分析方法,以1989—2009年的年度数据为样本,以能源价格为解释变量,碳排放量为被解释变量,能源消费、能源效率和经济发展为中间变量,初步探究能源价格波动对中国碳排放量的调节作用。结果表明：无论是能源价格变量单独作用还是与其他变量联合作用,能源价格都会对碳排放量产生不同程度的调节作用,调节程度的强弱主要取决于引入变量与碳排放量之间的相关性。     

新能源成本不确定下能源最优开采研究

随着全球气候变暖和环境的恶化,低污染高效率的新能源成为各国能源政策的主要发展对象,因此新能源取代传统能源是大势所趋。针对未来新能源对传统能源的替代趋势,本文通过建立基于社会和企业总效益最大化的能源最优开采的动态模型,分析了新能源成本不确定性和社会风险偏好的差异对能源耗竭速度的影响,并提出了提高社会总收益的合理方案。分析表明：在替代品出现之前能源的开采量随着新能源替代品成本不确定性的增加而增加;而社会风险厌恶倾向于减少社会的最优开采,但是会增加竞争性企业的的开采量;对T时刻之前的能源开采征收额外的税收可以减缓能源耗竭速度,增加社会总收益。最后,本文提出了T时刻之前的能源开采征收额外的税收,或者是对T时刻之后的能源开采进行补贴来实现我国能源最优开采,提高能源利用效率的建议。     

Renewable Energy Policy Instruments and Market Power

Markets for green certificates allow generators with market power to squeeze the margins of their competitors, as a generator that is vertically integrated into network activities might do. We analyze this issue in a stylized electricity industry in which a dominant producer of both conventional and renewable energy is facing a competitive fringe of renewable‐energy producers. We demonstrate that whether or not a dominant firm is vertically integrated into network activities, it can disadvantage the fringe producers by distorting certificates prices, thereby inducing cost inefficiency in the generation of renewable energy. We compare green certificates to a system of feed‐in tariffs, where a similar margin squeeze is not possible.     

资源税的价格效应分析

2011年11月1日实施的资源税改革将原油和天然气由原来的从量计征改为从价计征,税率均为销售额的5％-10％,其他的资源税税日依旧是从量计征。这次的资源税改革使社会上普遍关注资源税税改后导致的资源性产品价格上涨．进而对居民消费价格指数CPI产生很大压力。文章采用实证分析方法分析资源税是否会严重影响CPI,研究结果表明资源税对CPI影响不大。     

Energy price shocks and milk price adjustments

Much previous research on energy price transmission sheds light on the relationship between oil prices and aggregate commodity prices, such as for agricultural products, or food price indexes. This letter uses data from 12 U.S. cities between 2001 and 2011 to examine how energy prices are transmitted to fluid milk products at the retail level. Results indicate the existence of an asymmetric energy pass-through (a rise is transmitted faster than a fall in prices) and that private label milk products are more insulated from energy price shocks and adjust at similar rate with national manufacturer brands.     

Energy price disparity and public welfare

The differences in the price of energy to economic sectors are linked to a number of system parameters and to public welfare. There are large disparities in energy prices within states when comparing residential and industrial prices although neoclassical economics predicts one price in markets. The large disparities between the two sectors across states negatively affects the efficiency of resource allocation, creates subsidies for those getting the cheap energy and results in unequal access to energy. These in turn lead to inefficient partitioning of energy between products and waste, higher pollution, leakage of wealth and poorer energy use efficiency, i.e. high energy intensity. States with large energy price disparities between sectors have statistically higher poverty, lower incomes, more pollution and use more energy but with less efficiency. Higher energy price disparities also result in higher throughput per unit of output thus reducing the chances for sustainability and lower public welfare.     

我国的能源结构调整与能源安全

我国20世纪90年代成为石油净进口国。随着经济和能源结构调整，21世纪我国石油、天然气的消费比重上升和对国外油气依存度的加大已是必然趋势。鉴于世界石油价格大幅波动，能源问题又是国际政治的一个重点，有必要对我国能源战略与能源安全展开深入研究。     

Fuel Efficiency Improvements: Feedback Mechanisms and Distributional Effects in the Oil Market

We study the interactions between fuel efficiency improvements in the transport sector and the oil market, where the efficiency improvements are policy-induced in certain regions of the world. We are especially interested in feedback mechanisms of fuel efficiency such as the rebound effect, carbon leakage and the “green paradox”, but also the distributional effects for oil producers. An intertemporal numerical model of the international oil market is introduced, where OPEC-Core producers have market power. We find that the rebound effect has a noticeable effect on the transport sector, with the magnitude depending on the oil demand elasticity. In the benchmark simulations, we calculate that almost half of the energy savings may be lost to a direct rebound effect and an additional 10% to oil price adjustments. In addition, there is substantial intersectoral leakage to other sectors through lower oil prices in the regions that introduce the policy. There is a small green paradox effect in the sense that oil consumption increases initially when the fuel efficiency measures are gradually implemented. Finally, international carbon leakage will be significant if policies are not implemented in all regions; we estimate leakage rates of 35% or higher when only major consuming regions implement fuel economy policies. Non-OPEC producers will to a larger degree than OPEC producers cut back on its oil supply as a response to fuel efficiency policies due to high production costs.     

天然气分布式冷热电联供系统节能减排技术经济分析模型

分析了我国天然气能源供需情况及能源价格情况,构建了天然气分布式冷热电联供系统的经济效益分析模型。利用相关数据,分析了该系统的经济效益,并对影响经济效益的主要因素进行了敏感性分析,构建了天然气分布式冷热电联供系统节能减排效益分析模型,并对该系统的减排效益进行分析。结果表明:天然气分布式冷热电联动系统具有显著的经济效益,可大大降低污染物的排放量。     

A mark-up pricing model for price simulations

This paper develops an input/output model of pricing using a mark-up pricing formula. The connection between mark-up pricing and competitive pricing is analyzed through the determination of sectoral equilibrium profit mark-up rates as a function of the profit rate and the capital intensity of each sector. The model is used to analyze the effects on relative prices and the aggregate price level of exogenous changes in the nominal wage rate, tax rates, the exchange rate and world prices. Exogenous changes in the prices of domestically produced commodities are modelled via the imposition of ad valorem tax rates, which yield a measure of the net effect of the exogenous changes. Simulations are carried out under passive price adjustment as well as adjustment with price ceilings. In this last instance the model calculates the endogenously determined reduction in profit mark-ups. Lastly, empirical results of various simulations are presented using data from the Mexican economy.     

Oil Price Instability and Domestic Energy Substitution for Imported Oil*

This paper considers the effects of unstable world oil prices on domestic firms seeking substitutes for imported oil. Price instability manifested as price uncertainty is shown to inhibit domestic potential competitors' substitution activities, being analogous to a tax imposed on domestic firms by the dominant oil-exporters. This tax analogue of price uncertainty is in distinction to the mutual gain scenario of stochastic limit pricing when there is price variability but no uncertainty.     

EXCHANGE RATE PROBLEMS IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTING OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES*

Developing countries which typically have import surpluses and inflationary pressures because of insufficient savings are prone to use indirect taxes on imports (Tm) and subsidization of exports (Sx) in order to prevent deterioration of the balance of trade. If these substitutes for devaluation are included in the net indirect tax component of product at current market prices (Ym) the import surplus is likely to be understated, and Ym upward biased. This distortion will be avoided if imports and exports are measured at effective exchange rates (ER), that is, at official rates (OR) plus Tm and Sx respectively, and if (Tm - Sx) is deducted from the net indirect tax component of Ym. Only in this manner become imports and exports consistent with the other uses and resources at market prices and can be articulated with them. At base-year prices the volume index of product at OR diverges from that of ER to the degree that the composition of imports and exports in regard to tax and subsidy rates computed ad valorem significantly changes. Such a case is similar to that of the price indexes of imports and exports moving in diverging proportions: the trade balance at base-year prices will differ from that at current prices. The resulting discrepancies in national accounts have led to proposals of deflating, for example, exports by the price index of imports. Suchlike approaches are incompatible with the principle of national accounting that prices are supposed already to measure substitution values. Deflating exports by import prices means reintroducing substitution values, as does, for example, deflation of incomes by a consumer price index. Correspondingly, since the trade balance at ER conceptually expresses the value of imports at domestic market prices as compared to the corresponding domestic market value of exports, and if at ER the trade balance diverges from that at OR, the former balance has an important meaning (as has the trade balance at base-year prices as compared to that at current prices) and the resulting discrepancy between the two measures should not be removed merely for the sake of accounting smoothness. In contrast to the market price approach, the measurement of product at base-year factor cost is indifferent to the measurement of the trade balance at ER and at OR. It is, therefore, proposed in countries in which part of import taxation and export subsidization substitutes for devaluation, to record imports and exports in the national accounts at effective exchange rates, and to correct the net indirect tax component of product correspondingly. Imports and exports at official exchange rates should be shown within the balance of payments, and the latter separately as a memorandum item.     

TRADE BARRIERS IN THE PACIFIC FOREST SECTOR: WHO WINS AND WHO LOSES

This study uses a global model of the forest sector to examine changes in log production, consumption, prices, and trade and discusses the impacts of changes on economic wealth transfers for log export ban and log export tax scenarios. The results indicate that trade barriers are inefficient in allocating logs to domestic processors when a supply shortage exists. The trade barrier produces economic losses that exceed the benefits to the processors. A log export ban reduces log prices in the Pacc North-west by 8.5% and reduces timber harvests by 6.7%. The logs diverted to domestic mills save 1,208 more jobs than log export job losses but at an average annual cost of £230,463 per job saved. Economic transfers benefit lumber producers in the region under the ban. However, the benefits amount to 61% of regional timber producer losses including losses in the log export price premium, 39% of the loss to Asian processors, and 55% of the global consumer losses. Globally, lumber consumers lose £733 million. A log export tax scenario produces smaller impacts on prices and harvests since it does not eliminate total log exports. The tax scenario saves no jobs, and the average economic gain per job lost is £24,251 or about two-thirds of the current average salary in the forest products sector in the region. A log tax has the ability to retain £78 million in tax revenues.     

Prices versus quantities: environmental regulation and imperfect competition

By exercising market power, a firm will distort the production, and therefore the emissions decisions, of all firms in the market. This paper examines how the welfare implications of strategic behavior depend on how pollution is regulated. Under an emissions tax, aggregate emissions do not affect the marginal cost of polluting. In contrast, the price of tradable permits is endogenous. I show when this feedback effect increases strategic firms’ output. Relative to a tax, tradable permits may improve welfare in a market with imperfect competition. As an application, I model strategic and competitive behavior of wholesalers in a Mid-Atlantic electricity market. Simulations suggest that exercising market power decreased emissions locally, thereby substantially reducing the regional tradable permit price. Furthermore, I find that had regulators opted to use a tax instead of permits, the deadweight loss from imperfect competition would have been even greater.     

An endogenous growth model with embodied energy-saving technical change

In this paper, we extend the Romer [Journal of Political Economy 98 (Part 2) (1990) S271] model in two ways. First we include energy consumption of intermediates. Second, intermediates become heterogeneous due to endogenous energy-saving technical change. We show that the resulting model can still generate steady state growth, but the growth rate depends negatively on the growth of real energy prices. The reason is that real energy price rises will lower the profitability of using new intermediate goods, and hence, the profitability of doing research, and therefore have a negative impact on growth. We also show that the introduction of an energy tax that is recycled in the form of an R&D subsidy may increase growth. We conclude that in order to have energy efficiency growth and output growth under rising real energy prices, a combination of R&D and energy policy is called for.     

Endogenous technical progress induced by CO2 reduction policies: Simulation results for Austria

Almost all model simulations of CO₂ reduction policies focus on the effects of changes in the relative price of energy compared to the other factors of production caused by various energy taxation schemes. Typical results of these simulations as reported e.g. from the GREEN model of OECD show depressing effects on real GDP and upward pressures on inflation.We propose the hypothesis that these results may be biased due to an inadequate treatment of technical progress and proceed as follows: Firstly, instead of treating technical progress as exogenous we explicitly model theprice induced change of the composition of capital stock of households and producers with its effects on energy efficiency and investment demand. Secondly, we investigate to what extent adouble dividend policy which boosts CO₂ reduction technologies by special programs funded by the additional tax revenues differs from the mere price induced technological changes.We implement these propositions within the framework of a macroeconometric model for Austria which emphasizes substitution between energy and capital in providing energy services for households and producers. The following results are obtained: Firstly, we indicate how misleading the GDP effects may be if they result from lower energy intensities but still maintain the required energy services. Secondly, we investigate the effects of various energy taxation policies under different compensation schemes. Instead of merely relying on price-induced technological change we strongly advocate compensation programs which provide additional incentives for implementing high efficiency energy technologies such as cogeneration equipment or buildings with improved thermal standards.     

Price signaling and the strategic benefits of price rigidities

We analyze trade between a perfectly informed price setting party (seller) and an imperfectly informed price taker (buyer). Differently from most of the literature, we focus on the case in which, under full information, it would be inefficient to trade goods of sufficiently poor quality. We show that the unique equilibrium surviving D1 is characterized by market breakdown, although trade would be mutually beneficial in some state of nature. This occurs independently of the precision of the information available to the buyer. The model thus implies that signaling through prices may exacerbate the effect of adverse selection rather than mitigate it. Under D1, the seller would always benefit from committing to prices that do not reveal her information. We develop this intuition by analyzing the strategic advantages of price rigidities. We show that price rigidities help restore trade and could even enhance effectiveness of prices as signals of quality.     

完善节能减排环境政策的对策建议

环境政策是减缓环境破坏、改善环境质量最重要的手段,完善节能减排环境政策具有重要的现实意义。从财政、税收、环境收费、生态补偿机制、产业结构调整、推进绿色资本市场建设、技术支撑体系、目标责任考核与激励政策八个方面提出了完善节能减排环境政策的建议。     

Land Allocation between Food and Energy

Many countries are promoting biofuels as a substitute for scarce oil. This paper develops a dynamic model of land allocation between food and energy and shows how the model can be calibrated using standard optimization techniques. Some possible implications of the trade-offs between food and energy are discussed. Specifically, we show that the effect of mandates is mainly felt through increased land conversion, which increases indirect carbon emissions Crude oil prices do not decrease significantly because of leakages.     

General Equilibrium Impacts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Welfare of Households in South Asia

Impacts of fiscal and monetary policies are assessed in an open economy two sector multi‐household general equilibrium tax model with money for South Asia. Despite impressive growth rates there is evidence for alarming gaps in the distribution of income among households that require very careful design of economic policies. Generally the impacts of fiscal expansions are positive for all categories of households under the flexible price system but the gains are much higher for households in the upper income group than for those in the bottom. In theory the equilibrium relative prices guarantee the optimal allocation of resources in such economy. Simulation results show that demand, output and employment are sensitive to the preferences of consumers, confidence of producers and sector specific production technologies. Monetary policy is super‐neutral under flexible price regime but can complement fiscal policy well when aggregate prices are made sticky. Combination of monetary and fiscal policies in this manner can have extensive impacts in efficiency and redistribution. Higher taxes distort incentives to work and investment from richer households slowing down the economy. This reduces the welfare level of both rich and poor. Flexibility in prices enhances the market mechanism and makes the fiscal policy more effective and efficient.