STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME BY SIZE: THE CASE OF INDIA

The interrelation between changes in the economic structure, i.e., industrial distribution of income and labor force, and the size distribution of income is studied in this paper in a case study of India (1951–1960).
The change in the size distribution of income is the sum of changes due to (1) inter-sectoral factors and (2) intra-sectoral factors. The need for this distinction is emphasized by the result obtained for India, that 85% of the changes in the size distribution may be assigned to inter-sectoral factors, and only 15% to intra-sectoral factors. Since the inter-sectoral factors are significantly influenced by changes in the industrial distribution of income and labor force, our result points out a relation between economic growth and the size distribution which quite often is overlooked in studies of the size distribution.
The results obtained in this paper support several cross-section results of Professor Kuznets. In particular some of these are: (a) inter-sectoral inequality in the economic structure widened with economic growth, (b) the inequality in the size distribution of India widened, (c) the level of inequality in India is higher than in any of the eight developed countries considered.     

Profitability in business cycle theory and forecasting

Given the Important connections among profitability, investment, and economic activity, a profitability indicator can be used to assess where the economy is in the business cycle. Rising profitability suggests that the economy is on a secular growth path, while a peak or fall in profitability suggests that growth is slowing and the economy is headed for recession. One measure of profitability is to divide total business sector profit by total wages paid to labor. Let this variable be called the PW ratio.This paper's research shows that the PW ratio leads recessions, and that it takes two to six quarters of decline in PW before the onset of recession. PW clearly peaks in stage three of the business cycle. The evidence demonstrates that the PW ratio compares favorably with other indicators used by forecasters. The paper concludes that wages are not responsible for squeezing profits until stage seven on average, and fluctuations in profit over the cycle exceed that of wages and the gap grows in late expansion.     

AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE SOURCES OF CHANGES OVER TIME IN THE JOB FINDING RATE USING RESERVATION WAGES AND REJECTED WAGE OFFERS*

We consider a structural dynamic job search model where nonstationarity originates from the change over time in the benefit level, the job offer arrival rate, and the wage offer distribution. The model is estimated on the French sample of the ECHP taking advantage of direct observation of reservation wages, rejected job offers, and associated rejected wages. We find that the offered wages deteriorate rapidly (13.8% over six months, 19.2% over one year, and 30% over two years) and that changes in the wage offer distribution are the unique source of negative duration dependence in the hazard.     

THE EFFECTS OF RECENT STRUCTURAL, POLICY AND EXTERNAL SHOCKS TO THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY, 1996/97–2001/02

The period 1996/97–2001/02 was characterised by rapid economic growth and substantial structural change. This paper analyses this period in detail, relying on results from historical and decomposition simulations with the MONASH model. Changes in the level and composition of economic activity are traced to the effects of a number of government policies, external shocks, and domestic structural changes. The influence of policies such as the GST and tariff reduction proves small, with much of the change in the size and structure of economic activity attributable to technical change.     

Inequality and the Phases of Capitalism

We live in a capitalist world characterized by economic inequality. Inequality is a real curse, but it does not have to always increase. In different phases of capitalism, it may be increasing, constant, or decreasing, depending on the dominant type of technical progress (capital-using, capital-neutral, or capital-saving), on the organizational capacity of the workers, on the competition from other countries with lower wages, and on the prevailing degree of democracy. But distribution faces an economic constraint: the expected profit rate must remain attractive to business entrepreneurs. From the mid-twentieth century, we would expect technological progress to change from neutral to capital-saving, which would allow wages to increase at a faster rate than productivity. Indeed, this happened in the Golden Years of capitalism, but such progress stalled in the succeeding neoliberal years, dominated as they were by a class coalition of rentier capitalists and financiers.     

THE INFLUENCE OF VOLUNTEERS, DONATIONS AND PUBLIC SUBSIDIES ON THE WAGE LEVEL OF NONPROFIT WORKERS: EVIDENCE FROM AUSTRIAN MATCHED DATA

ABSTRACT ** :  In this article we add to the literature analyzing wages in the nonprofit sector by estimating a wage function based on employer-employee matched data for Austria. We concentrate on the influence of voluntary contributions on the wage level of paid workers. By using a quantile regression approach we find that the existence of volunteers reduces the wages of paid employees in nonprofit organizations. The number of volunteers does not have an influence on the wage level. Donations have a small but positive effect for higher income groups only. Public subsidies increase wages of all paid workers in a nonprofit organization.     

LABOR INCOME DIFFERENTIALS WITHIN THE LATIN AMERICAN FREE TRADE AREA (LAFTA)

This article considers the major results of a study of relative wage structures in the LAFTA region. It first discusses the nature and methodology of the study, which was undertaken for ECIEL. Data on the size of labor income differences are introduced, and an attempt is made to determine the causes of such differences, and to relate them to various wage differentials. The main findings of the study are then summarized, with discussions of inter-country, intra-country, and occupational labor income differentials and their causes. Finally, the results of the study are updated to the end of 1970, and some conclusions are derived regarding the inter-temporal behavior of wages in LAFTA.     

THE EFFECTS OF U.S.-CHINA TRADE ON EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES IN THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER REGION

This article investigates the impact of foreign competition from China on employment and wages in four U.S.-Mexico Border counties: Santa Cruz, Arizona; San Diego, California; El Paso, Texas; and Webb, Texas. Using disaggregated industry-level data between 1992 and 2006, we find that increased trade with China is associated with significantly lower county-industry employment and wages. In contrast, and as expected, increased imports from Mexico are positively related to increased employment and wages in U.S.-Mexico border counties. The results indicate that the U.S.-Mexico supply-chain relationship related to the maquiladora industry is significantly affected by Chinese competition. Implications for policy include an increased focus on federal programs that are intended to diversify the border economy . ( JEL F13, F43, F23)     

THE SIZE OF FISCAL MULTIPLIERS AND THE STANCE OF MONETARY POLICY IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

Implementing fiscal programs during monetary policy expansions seems to improve significantly their economic stimulus. We find this result by estimating the effect of government consumption shocks on gross domestic product (GDP) using a panel of 23 developing economies. Our goal is to better understand the reasons for the low fiscal multipliers found in the literature by performing estimations for alternative exchange rate regimes, business‐cycle phases, and monetary policy stances. In addition, we perform counterfactual simulations to analyze the possible gains from fiscal‐monetary policy coordination. Our results also show lower multipliers in developing economies with flexible regimes, especially during economic slowdowns. (JEL E62, E63, F32)     

ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF LABOR MARKET AND DETERRENCE VARIABLES ON CRIME RATES IN MEXICO

Many studies examine the relationship between crime rates and various economic and/or sociodemographic variables in high income countries, but similar efforts for middle and low income countries are less common. Utilizing an 8‐year panel data sample for all 32 states in Mexico, this study assesses the impact of Mexican labor market and deterrence variables on various Mexican crime rates. The principal results indicate that: (1) State gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has ambiguous effect on crime rates under different conditions. Both wages and unemployment rates are negatively linked with crime rates. (2) Although the Mexican judicial and public security systems are widely believed to be ineffective, increased federal police forces and incarceration rates are associated with lower crime rates, but higher public security expenditure per capita is associated with higher crime rates. (3) The impacts from labor market and deterrence variables presented in (1) and (2) continue to hold under the Fox administration as well as for non‐border states. Their respective impacts diminish, however, under the Calderon administration as well as for border states because of the small number of observations. Overall, the results indicate that increasing average wages, federal police forces, and incarceration rates would have significant impacts on reducing crime rates in Mexican states. (JEL O54, K42)     

城市科技企业孵化器网络形成与演变研究

城市科技企业孵化器网络是基于城市范围内的各类科技企业孵化器和高校院所、科技中介机构、政府相关部门、各种投融资机构等相关主体相互结网形成的一种战略性服务型经济组织,它是科技企业孵化器发展到一定阶段后的一种具体表现形态。城市科技企业孵化器网络的形成与演变是一个动态的连续发展过程,一般经历孕育生成期、快速发展期、成熟稳定期等三个发展阶段。其发展与演化不是偶然的,而是存在于网络内部和外部的各种驱动因素相互作用的结果,各种驱动因素在不同发展阶段的影响作用和效果都有所差异。     

全球制造业工资停滞之谜*——来自进口中间产品质量视角的经验证据

本文从快速增长的中间产品贸易及其质量视角研究了全球制造业工资停滞现象。首先，基于DS垄断竞争框架和Koch & Smolka(2019)的研究，本文重新构建开放条件下的工资决定模型，发现进口中间产品质量影响各国劳动工资。其次，借鉴Feenstra & Romalis(2014)的研究，本文构建全新的测度产品—行业—国家层面进口中间产品质量GEKS 指数法，估算1995—2011年37个国家从248个出口市场进口的制造业四位码中间产品质量指数，发现全球制造业进口中间产品质量上升趋势明显但分化严重，中等和低等收入国家质量指数持续上升，高等收入国家质量指数持续下降。最后，本文从跨国—行业层面定量识别进口中间产品质量对进口国制造业工资的具体影响，发现：(1)进口中间产品质量对全球制造业的劳动工资有显著负向影响，对中等收入国家、中级技术密集型行业、高技能劳动者以及进口矿物类中间产品制造业的工资降低效应最大；(2)进口中间产品质量通过“就业破坏效应”和“研发激励效应”两种机制造成全球制造业工资下降；(3)进口中间产品质量变化造成制造业工资下降是全球化中的市场性经济规律和暂时性“全球冲击波”。上述发现解释了全球制造业工资停滞之谜，并启示各国须尊重全球化的市场规律，加强国际合作，共同应对冲击，提高民众福祉，携手共建人类命运共同体。     

THE SIZE AND DISTRIBUTION OF THE POVERTY GAP IN CANADA: A MICRO ANALYSIS OF VARIATIONS AMONG DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS

Poverty is a much used term by politicians, economists, sociologists, the media and interest groups. Although there is some common consensus that the word poverty means some type of deprivation, there is a lack of comprehensive measures to quantify this term. Although deprivation can relate to a number of areas such as health and education, the focus in policy development has been aimed at economic deprivation or more specifically, income adequacy. Even in this perspective, the availability of comprehensive measures are limited. The United States is the only major industrial nation that has an official poverty line. Several unofficial poverty lines have been developed in Canada, but the poverty measures have not gone beyond head counts of people who fall below these lines. In an environment where the goal is to further progressive social development constrained by inadequate public resources, the emphasis has been on first directing scarce resources to those "most in need". To get a better perception of economic need, this paper provides a micro analysis of the size and distribution of the poverty gap so that meaningful comparisons can be made between demographic groups. The results of this analysis yield some interesting findings. For example, there are virtually no poor elderly couples and although there are a large number of poor single elderly, their income shortfalls are relatively small and are highly concentrated near the poverty line; the poverty rate among families with children is quite low but their incomes on average fall well below the poverty line and are widely dispersed; and single parents fare badly on all measures.     

THE WAGE IMPACT OF TEACHERS UNIONS: A META‐ANALYSIS

The literature examining the impact of teachers unions on education is very large and diverse. We meta‐analyze the literature on the wage impacts of teachers unions to try to draw out general findings, the importance of empirical model specification, and samples. A key finding of this study is that the average wage impact estimated by the included papers is modest, around 2%–4.5%. Our findings also suggest that the quality of an empirical strategy significantly affects the size of the estimated impact. We find that teachers union wage impacts have varied over time. The largest impacts appear to be following the rapid expansion of teacher unionism in the 1970s. Finally, we gain new insight into the goals of teachers unions by using the increased statistical power of meta‐analytic techniques to show that unions increase the wages of new teachers and not just senior teachers. (JEL J51, I21, I30)     

THE INCOME UNIT AND THE ANATOMY OF INCOME DISTRIBUTION*

This paper focuses on a neglected aspect of the treatment of the income unit in the construction of size distributions of income. If the size distribution is to be an indicator of the distribution of economic welfare, and if the economic welfare of each individual in society is to count equally, then conventional distributions are inconsistent with individualistic welfare functions. We estimate size distributions with each person's welfare weighted equally, and contrast these results with those weighting each household unit's welfare equally. The choice of weights is shown to affect both the level and the trend in income inequality.     

A NOTE ON THE NONLINEAR EFFECT OF MINIMUM WAGE INCREASES

We use a labor search model with worker experience to assess the effects of minimum wage increases. Minimum wages can have nonlinear effects on unemployment as higher minimum wages become binding for larger portions of the underlying productivity distribution. The model is used to assess the increases proposed by the Obama Administration from $7.25 an hour to $9.00 and then to $10.10 per hour. We find that minimum wage increases have large effects on youth unemployment. These large effects cast doubt on using past empirical estimates of the effects of minimum wages that do not account for potential nonlinearities. (JEL E24, J08, J24, J64)     

THE ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE ELDERLY: BEWARE OF THE MEAN*

Current discussion contains widely contradictory statements about the economic status of the elderly in the United States. One can read that poverty among the elderly has been eliminated, and that it remains one of the most serious problems facing the country today. This paper discusses different ways of measuring economic status, and attempts to show how authors can reach such divergent conclusions, and support them with readily available data. The U.S. Census data on personal income generally exclude in-kind benefits, and treat family size in a straightforward though unsophisticated manner. This paper shows that alternative treatments of these issues can have significant effects on indices of the economic status of the elderly. Whether or not in-kind benefits are included in the definition of income, which in-kind benefits are included and how they are valued change the conclusions dramatically. Even more important is whether the income data are presented by household or per capita (or with some intermediate divisor, using equivalency scales), since elderly households are the smallest of any age category. This paper makes 3 points. One is that there has been significant progress in the economic status of the elderly over the past several decades, although the extent of the improvement is subject to debate. But the second is that summary statistics about the elderly, such as the above, may conceal more than they reveal. The diversity of the elderly is key. Beware of the mean. Finally, there is no one correct way to measure well-being. Different methodological approaches can be chosen and justified, and the choices made alter the conclusions significantly.     

The “Business Climate” and Economic Inequality

“Business climate indexes” characterize state economic policies, and are often used to try to influence economic policy debate. However, they are also useful in research as summaries of a large number of state policies that cannot be studied simultaneously. Prior research found that business climate indexes focused on productivity and quality of life do not predict economic growth, while indexes emphasizing taxes and costs of doing business indicate that low‐tax, low‐cost states have faster growth of employment, wages, and output. In this paper, we study the relationship between these two categories of business climate indexes and the promotion of equality or inequality. We do not find that the productivity/quality‐of‐life indexes predict more equitable outcomes, although some of the policies underlying them suggest they might. We do find, however, that the same tax‐and‐cost‐related indexes that are associated with higher economic growth are also associated with increases in inequality.     

Wages in the East German Transition Process: Facts and Explanations

We analyze wage developments in the East German transition process both at the macro- and at the microeconomic level. At the macroeconomic level, we draw special attention to the important distinction between product and consumption wages, describe the development of various wage measures, labor productivity and unit labor costs in East Germany in relation to West Germany, and relate these developments to the system of collective wage bargaining. At the microeconomic level, we describe changes in the distribution of hourly wages between 1990 and 1997 and analyze the economic factors determining these changes by way of empirical wage functions estimated on the basis of the Socio-Economic Panel for East Germany. The paper also draws some conclusions on the likely future course of the East–West German wage convergence process.     

北京市商品交易市场的分布特征与发展趋势

本文对改革开放后北京市商品交易市场的分布和发展进行了实证研究。从市场个数,规模,投资成本,成交额等方面总体分析了市场布局,并对分类市场的分布特点进行了较为全面的剖析。在此基础上对市场成交额总量,不同地区成交额和典型市场的成交额进行了分析预测,并对市场选址提出相关建议。最后,结合国外商品交易市场的发展变化,对北京市商品交易市场未来发展提出了自己的看法。