Contracting out refuse collection

In this paper we seek an explanation for the reservations of local authorities towards contracting out. Although empirical evidence suggests that contracting out results in a significant cost decrease, a majority of Dutch municipalities provides for waste collection services themselves. Based on theoretical insights we model the choice between private, public, in-house, and out-house refuse collection. The models are estimated using a database comprising nearly all Dutch municipalities. We find evidence that the number of inhabitants, the transfer by central government, and interest group arguments are important explanations. Interestingly, ideology seems to play a minor role.  Compared to earlier studies we estimate more general models. Although the same qualitative results are found for parametric and semiparametric models, we find strong statistical evidence that a parametric specification is far too inflexible. Differences between the parametric and the semiparametric marginal effects are substantial. Thus, more attention is needed for the implications of model specification. First version received: November 2000/Final version received: May 2002 We thank two anonymous referees for their comments on an earlier version.     

An Empirical Test of Environmental Kuznets Curve for Water Pollution

The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) on water pollution was investigated with both semiparametric and parametric models using watershed level data for the state of Louisiana, USA. The parametric model indicated the turning points within the range $10241–$12993, $6636–$13877, and $6467–$12758 for nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and dissolved oxygen (DO), respectively. However, only the parameters associated with N EKC were found to be significant. Model specification tests rejected parametric models in favor of semiparametric specification for P but not for N and DO.     

Fiscal policy and private consumption behaviour: The Spanish case

In this article we analyse whether the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis is a valid approximation for Spains economic reality or whether there exist deviations from that situation which would be more in line with the conventional Keynesian perspective of the effects of debt on private consumption-savings decisions.Our aim is to contribute to the rather sparse empirical literature on the subject for the Spanish case. The analysis is based on annual aggregate data for Spain covering the years 1955 to 2000, and uses both the structural and the Euler equation approaches to test the neutrality proposition, and is thus to be considered as a generalization of foregoing work on the Spanish economy.The findings indicate that support for Ricardian equivalence is mixed, while we also find very little support for the Keynesian specification of consumption and fiscal policy.First revision received: March 2003 / Final version received: October 2003The authors wish to thank M. Ferré, J.M. González-Páramo, A. Marchante, P. Meguire, F. Pedraja, J.L. Raymond, J. Salinas and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions on this paper. We also thank the participants in the V Encuentro de Economía Aplicada (Oviedo, Spain, June 2002) and the XVII Simposio de Análisis Económico (Salamanca, Spain, December 2002) for their comments. Any remaining defects are our responsibility. We also are grateful to the Institute for Fiscal Studies of Spain (Ministerio de Hacienda, Secretaría de Estado de Hacienda) for its financial support.     

Cross-country catch-up in the manufacturing sector: Impacts of heterogeneity on convergence and technology adoption

We analyze how technology transfer from a leading economy affects followers productivity growth in manufacturing sectors and Gross Domestic Product. Allowing for heterogeneous technology levels we explore how this impacts rates of catch-up in labor productivity across manufacturing sectors and GDP for 16 OECD nations. Our results indicate that aggregate studies bias downward the estimated rates of catch-up. These rates of catch-up, as well as efficiency levels, also differ across countries. We find that institutional factors such as bureaucratic efficiency are important determinants of the estimated catch-up rates.First version received:October 2001/Final version received:September 2003Earlier versions of this paper have been presented under the titles of Cross-Country Catch-up in Manufacturing and Heterogeneous Rates of Catch-up in Manufacturing Industries. The authors would like to thank participants of the North American Productivity Conference, June 2000, at Union College, N, Y., and the Associate Editor for helpful comments and criticisms.     

The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects

We argue that the proper specification of a panel gravity model should include main (exporter, importer, and time) as well as time invariant exporter-by-importer (bilateral) interaction effects. In a panel of 11 APEC countries, the latter are highly significant and account for the largest part of variation. First version received: February 2001/Final version received: June 2002 RID="*" ID="*"  We are grateful to two anonymous referees and Robert Kunst for their helpful comments.     

A dynamic panel analysis of the profitability of Australian tax entities

This paper investigates the determinants of profitability of Australian tax entities using data for 91 different industries over the period 1991/92 to 1996/97. A simple oligopoly model is augmented with lagged profitability to allow for persistence of profitability shocks. The Wansbeek-Bekker estimator is used to control for endogeneity of this lagged dependent variable, whilst simultaneously controlling for observed and unobserved entity heterogeneity. Aggregate results suggest that profitability in the previous year, capital intensity, and barriers to entry have the expected positive association with current profitability. Market share—and to a lesser extent concentration—have a U shaped relationship with profitability.This paper is the result of work being undertaken as part of a collaborative research program entitled The Performance of Australian Enterprises: Innovation, Productivity and Profitability. This project is generously supported by the Australian Research Council and the following collaborative partners: The Australian Tax Office, Commonwealth Office of Small Business, IBIS Business Information Pty Ltd, Productivity Commission, and Victorian Department of State Development. The views expressed in this paper represent those of the authors and not necessarily the views of the collaborative partners. We are grateful to Badi Baltagi, David Prentice, John Creedy and two anonymous referees for helpful comments.First version received: December 2001 / Final version received: December 2003     

EU-Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and Russia Integration

This paper examines the economic effects of the opening of the Russian Federation. The analysis carried out in the paper is twofold. First we simulate the impact of the eastern enlargement of the EU and, second, we analyse how deeper integration between the EU and Russia contributes to this. The analysis is carried out with GTAP, a computable general equilibrium model. We find that there is a trade-off between the two roads of European integration arrangements. Eastern enlargement seems, even in its very deep form, be beneficial for all EU regions without causing substantial welfare losses outside the Union. EU–Russia integration, on the other hand, has different impact. To be beneficial for Russia free trade between the EU and Russia requires improved productivity in the latter, which may be due to better institutions or increased FDI. This might make the negotiations of the agreement cumbersome and if agreed its implementation difficult.This study stems from a project Opening of Russia in which the authors participated at RECEP in Moscow. This paper is substantially revised and updated version of Sulamaa, P. and Widgrén, M. (2003): EU Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and CIS Integration, CEPR Discussion Papers 3768. The authors thank Peter Havlik and Risto Vaittinen and an anonymous referee for beneficial comments on earlier drafts, Comments and discussions with Paavo Suni, Ivan Samson, Xavier Richet and Xavier Greffe are also gratefully acknowledged. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Subjective well-being and the family: Results from an ordered probit model with multiple random effects

The previous literature on the determinants of individual well-being has failed to fully account for the interdependencies in well-being at the family level. This paper develops an ordered probit model with multiple random effects that allows to identify the intra-family correlation in well-being. The parameters of the model can be estimated with panel data using Maximum Marginal Likelihood. The approach is illustrated in an application using data for the period 1984–1997 from the German Socio-Economic Panel in which both inter-generational and intra-marriage correlations in well-being are estimated.First version received: May 2003/Final version received: August 2004I would like to thank Andrew Clark, Daniel S. Hamermesh, seminar participants at Tilburg University, and three anonymous referees for helpful comments.     

The purchasing power parity puzzle is worse than you think

The ‘‘purchasing power parity puzzle’’ is the difficulty of reconciling very high short-term volatility of real exchange rates with very slow rates of mean reversion. The strongest evidence of slow mean reversion comes from least squares estimates of first-order autoregressive models of the long-horizon dollar-sterling real exchange rate. Using median-unbiased estimation methods, we show that these methods underestimate the half-lives of PPP deviations, and thus overestimate the speed of mean reversion. When the specification is amended to allow for serial correlation, the speed of mean reversion falls even further. This makes resolution of the purchasing power parity puzzle more problematic.First version received: May 2003/Final version received: July 2004We thank Lutz Kilian, James Lothian, Mark Taylor, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions.     

A model of technology adoption and growth

Summary We construct a model of economic growth in which firms adopt more advanced technologies. In order to advance its technology, a firm must make an investment. The size of this investment depends on the size of the technology adoption barriers in the firm's country Assuming a Markov chain for these barriers, we examine the amount of variation and persistence in the chain for which the model matches the observed output disparity across countries and the mobility of nations. Our calibration suggests a range for the size of these barriers of a factor five, and the presence of a barrier trap.The author is grateful to V. V. Chari, Larry Christiano, Javier Díaz-Giménez, David Johnson, Edward C. Prescott, Richard Rogerson, James Schmitz, and Javier Vallés for their comments. An earlier version of this paper circulated under the title of Economic Institutions and External Factors: Implications for the Replacement of Inferior Technologies and Growth.     

Equilibrium with nonconvex technologies

Summary We provide an elementary proof of the existence of equilibrium in a general equilibrium model allowing for non-convex production sets. It is shown that when firms follow upper hemicontinuous and convex-valued pricing rules with bounded losses, a price vector and an allocation exist, such that all agents are in equilibrium and all markets clear.The existence result presented in this paper is a particular case of that one in Bonnisseau & Cornet (1988, Th. 2.1). In this respect our contribution consists of presenting an alternative proof which turns-out to be simpler and more intuitive.Thanks are due to Carmen Herrero and two anonymous referees for very helpful comments. Financial support from theDirection General de Investigación Cientiflca y Ténica, under project PS89–0066, is gratefully acknowledged.     

Investment in Swedish manufacturing: Analysis and forecasts

This paper uses a neoclassical investment model extended with installation costs for capital, agency costs for investment financing, and the possibility of the firm being output constrained as a framework for an empirical analysis of investment behaviour in the Swedish manufacturing industry. The theory is implemented within a multivariate error-correction approach on data covering the time period 1951 to 1995, and we gain the following main results: (1) Tobins average Q is not the sole determinant of investment, neither in the short nor in the long run, and other variables like real output and capital gearing also affect investment activity; (2) the out-of-sample forecasts of the model track the evolution of actual investment growth quite impressively, especially at short- and medium-term horizons (1–2 years); (3) a relative equity-price variable is shown to constitute a good approximation of average Q, both for empirical modelling in general and forecasting in particular.Jel classification: C32, E22, E27We would like to thank Bob Chirinko, Stefan Palmqvist, Anders Vredin, seminar participants at Sveriges Riksbank, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Thanks also to Jan Södersten, Uppsala University, who provided us with most of the data for this analysis. All correspondence to Per Jansson.First version received: July 2000/Final version received: November 2002     

Optimal audit policies with correlated types

Summary. We propose a version of Townsends [17] model of costly audits where the agents types are correlated. Audits are used because agents have a limited ability to bear risk so that the Full Surplus Extraction (FSE) scheme á la Crémer and McLean [5,6] and McAfee and Reny [13] are suboptimal. It is shown that Townsends result is a special case of our model when agent types are uncorrelated. The performed numerical simulation of the model using two agents and two types offers interesting insights into what we call the Townsend Ridge. Indeed, the optimal contract which specifies wages to be paid and the audit strategy are remarkably different from one side of the ridge to the next. The observed discontinuity at the ridge reflects a discreet change from a single to a dual audit policy.Received: 11 November 2002, Revised: 10 September 2003JEL Classification Numbers: C63, D82.Correspondence to: M. Martin BoyerWe wish to thank seminar participants at the CEA-Toronto, SCSE-Montréal and WCES-Seattle meetings for discussions and comments on an earlier version of the paper, as well as an anonymous referee for this journal. This paper was financially supported by an Emerging Scholar grant from the American Compensation Association, and by the Fonds FCAR-Québec. The continuing financial support of CIRANO is also appreciated. We remain responsible for any error.     

Short- and long-term unemployment: How do temporary layoffs affect this distinction?

In this paper, we provide new evidence on how to model unemployment durations in the presence of temporary layoffs. Two different types of econometric models are used: the multiple phase duration model and the competing risks model. Special attention is paid to the possibility of time-varying or non-proportional effects of the explanatory variables on the hazard function. The results show that instead of using the multiple phase duration model as an alternative to the competing risks model, it may be more fruitful to use it to extend the specification of the competing risks model. First version received: August 2000/Final version accepted: July 2001 RID="*" ID="*"  Financial support from the Danish National Research Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. We thank Gerard van den Berg, Per-Anders Edin, Niels Haldrup, Winfred Pohlmeier and anonymous referees for useful comments. We also thank Jens Chr. Thellesen for research assistance.     

A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU

This paper addresses the issue of measuring the NAIRU for the euro area and assessing the robustness and precision of the obtained estimates. The empirical framework adopted is based on systems combining an Okun-type relationship between cyclical unemployment and the output gap with a Phillips curve and stochastic laws of motion for the NAIRU and potential output. Such systems have been estimated using Kalman-filter techniques. The results obtained point to an estimate of the area-wide NAIRU that is robust to changes in the underlying models. This robustness is shown to hold both in terms of the mean – i.e., the shape of the resulting NAIRU – and the variance of the process. The latter is derived through bootstrap exercises using the models alone or pooled together. The evidence found suggests that the increase in the aggregate NAIRU that took place in the early part of the sample period has come to a halt and may be about to be reversed.Jel classification: C11, C15, E31, E32The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institutions they belong to. The authors are grateful to Per Jansson for providing parts of the econometric RATS code and to Gonzalo Camba-Mendez and Frank Smets of the ECB for useful comments. Comments and recommendations by two anonimous referees are also gratefully acnowledged. All the remaining errors are the authors responsibility. All correspondence to Ricardo Mestre.First version received: January 2002/Final version received December 2002     

Stability of money demand in Switzerland: A comparison of the M2 and M3 cases

Long-run parameters of money demand functions for Switzerland's M2 and M3 aggregate are estimated and their stability investigated. For both aggregates a single stable cointegrating vector is found. Around these long-run relationships a single-equation model for m2 and a single-equation model for cpi is built respectively for M2 and M3, and both estimated models are found to be stable. Testing forecast performance, the cpi model seems to be superior to the m2 model, providing some positive signs that the M3 model is stable in the sense that it does not suffer from a structural break during the period of estimation.We would like to thank Jürgen Wolters and two anonymous referees for their comments and Neil Ericsson, David Hendry, Katarina Juselius, Helmut Lütkepohl, Grayham Mizon and the other participants of the Workshop on Money Demand in Europe, Berlin, October 10–11, 1997, where an earlier version of the paper was presented, for their suggestions. The data may be obtained from the internet, http://wotan.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/oekonometrie/engl/data.html. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the Swiss National Bank.     

R&D activity in a dynamic factor demand model

The focus of this paper is an econometric analysis of the determinants of private firms' R&D activities in the context of a general dynamic factor demand model. Besides the traditional production factors we treat technological knowledge, endogenously determined by R&D expenditures, as a further input factor. While labour and materials are assumed to be variable, capital and know-how are considered as quasi-fixed. The dynamic demand equations for labour, capital investment and R&D which are derived from an intertemporal cost minimisation are estimated for a panel data set of small and medium size German firms. The data covers the period between 1978 and 1982 and includes 408 firms. It turns out that R&D activity depends on the underlying production structure as suggested by neoclassical theory. In addition, by introducing firm specific effects, we can show that firm size and market concentration influence innovative behaviour in accordance with the Schumpeterian hypotheses.Paper presented at the Industrial Organization Conference at the Annual Meeting of the Austrian Economic Association, Vienna, June 24–26, 1992, the 7th Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Dublin, August 29–31, 1992, and the 19th Annual Conference of the EARIE, Stuttgart, September 4–6, 1992. Helpful suggestions and comments were received from participants of these conferences as well as from seminar participants at Temple University, at the University of Augsburg, and at the fourth DFG workshop Marktstruktur und gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Munich. We are particularly indebted to an anonymous referee for very helpful specific comments. Finally, we would like to thank Horst Albach for providing us with the panel data set. Financial support of the DFG is gratefully acknowledged.     

Policy matters. The long run effects of aggregate demand and mark-up shocks on the Italian unemployment rate

This paper estimates a VAR including labor productivity, real wage and unemployment rate, to identify the dynamic effects of technology, demand, and mark-up shocks, respectively, on the Italian labor market. Identification is achieved by imposing recursive restrictions on the matrix of long run multipliers. Our results show that both mark up and aggregate demand shocks permanently reduce the unemployment rate. Finally, technology shocks do not significantly affect the unemployment rate in the long run. These findings convey important policy implications: expansionary aggregate demand and deregulation policies reducing the mark up permanently decrease the Italian unemployment rate.Jel classification: C32, E32, J29This paper has been produced as part of a CEPR Research Network on New Approaches to the Study of Economic Fluctuations. We would like to thank Marcello DAmato, Mario Forni, Marco Lippi and Antonio Ribba for useful comments. We are also grateful to Bernd Sussmuth for pointing out to us several significant improvements to the paper.First version received: November 2001/Final version received: October 2002     

Qualifications,discrimination, or assimilation? An extended framework for analysing immigrant wage gaps

In this paper, we analyze immigrant wage gaps and propose an extension of the traditional wage decomposition technique, which is a synthesis from two strains of literature on ethnic/immigrant wage differences, namely the assimilation literature and the discrimination literature. We estimate separate wage equations for natives and a number of immigrant groups using panel data sample selection models. Based on the estimations, we find that the immigrant wage gap is caused by a lack of qualifications and incomplete assimilation, and that a large fraction of that gap would disappear if only immigrants could find employment and thus accumulate work experience.First version received: June 2001 / Final version received: October 2003The project has been supported financially by the Danish Research Agency (the FREJA grant) and TSER. Furthermore, the first author received support from the Danish Social Science Research Council (SSF) while this work was undertaken. We are grateful for comments from the editor of Empirical Economics, Bernd Fitzenberger, two anonymous referees, several seminar and conference participants, and for the research assistance done by Thomas H. Jensen.     

Research policy and endogenous growth

This paper studies the effects of different types of research policy on economic growth. We find that while subsidies to private research, public funding of private projects, and basic research performed at public institutions have unambiguously positive effects on growth, performing applied research at public institutions could have negative growth effects. This is due to the large crowding out of private research caused by public R&D when it competes with private firms in the patent race.JEL Classification: O31, O38, O40I thank the helpful comments of Jordi Caballé, David Pérez-Castrillo and two anonymous referees. I also aknowledge the financial support of Fundaci ón Séneca project PB/3/FS/02.