嘉兴市旅游客源市场开发与营销对策

随着旅游业的发展,旅游客源市场的开发与营销已成为一个地区旅游业可持续发展的关键。文章在分析嘉兴市旅游客源市场规模、空间分布规律和游客行为特征的基础上,对嘉兴旅游客源市场的竞争机制和开发定位进行了研究,提出了嘉兴市旅游业客源市场可持续发展的营销对策。     

内蒙古入境旅游客源市场格局及对策——基于2004—2012年面板数据动态分析

对旅游客源市场演化特征和内在机制进行分析,是促进旅游业健康发展的前提和条件之一。文章依据《中国旅游统计年鉴》(2005—2013年)数据,应用亲景度和竞争态模型,利用统计软件,对2004—2012年内蒙古入境旅游客源市场进行了分析,揭示了其变化轨迹,进而对拓展该客源市场提出了对策和建议,以为内蒙古旅游业实现可持续发展提供学术支撑和理论依据。     

城市水源地旅游市场特征及开发战略研究--以首都水源地密云县为例

城市水源地是城市水资源供给的地区，城市可持续发展有赖于城市水资源的可持续供给，水源地有其独特的区域发展规律。旅游开发是调整、优化水源地产业结构和提高居民生活水平的重要措施，对于水源地可持续发展具有重要意义。本文以首都水源地密云县为例，分析了城市水源地生态环境保护与旅游业发展的辩证关系，并依据客源市场特征及市场开发背景的分析，从旅游市场定位、旅游产品开发、旅游形象、旅游促销四个方面提出了密云旅游市场开发战略，以期促进密云旅游业的持续发展和首都水源地的保护，并为同类型旅游地的发展提供借鉴。     

福建省旅游海外客源市场的特征与开发战略

本文通过福建省与广东省旅游海外客源市场现状对比,概括了福建省旅游海外客源市场的现状特征,分析了福建省海外旅游业落后于广东省的原因,提出了进一步开拓海外客源市场的战略构想。     

台湾旅游客源市场的结构与开发浅谈

自1987年以来，台湾旅游客源市场在中国大陆旅游业日渐显示其重要性。该市场具有总量增长快，散客比例高，中青年化，商务旅游比重高等特点。针对这些特点，祖国大陆的旅游企业应该相应采取不同的措施，以加快加大对台湾客源市场的开发。     

澳门博彩旅游业客源“内地化”趋势的研究

博彩旅游业是澳门经济发展的重要战略平台。自2003年内地开放自由行以来，澳门博彩旅游客源市场的“内地化”趋势日益明显，澳门博彩旅游客源市场的这种内地化倾向给澳门经济发展带来了许多隐忧。从澳门在国际旅游体系的角色及城市功能地位出发，澳门博彩旅游客源市场的未来发展应在加强区域旅游合作的基础上，走“多元化”的发展道路。为此，应采取相应措施，推动澳门博彩旅游客源市场向多元化方向发展。     

开封国外旅游客源市场分析

利用旅游客源市场空间结构地理集中指数分析法，对近年开封国外旅游客源数据的分析表明，开封国外旅游市场在区域上没有显示出明显的集中性，旅游经营较为稳定。开封应通过优化旅游业发展的软、硬环境，开发具有中原文化特色、自然景观特色浓郁的“开封”专题项目，形成以日、韩和港澳台地区为中心，东南亚、欧美为两翼的旅游客源市场格局。     

河南省旅游市场分析及客源目标市场选择

河南省拥有丰富的旅游资源,但近年来旅游业绩却一直徘徊在全国中下游水平,强大的资源优势并没有转化为相应的经济优势。其根本原因之一是旅游市场拓展不力,影响了旅游品牌的建立和竞争力的提高。文章运用市场分析模型和数理统计方法对入境和国内旅游市场进行了深入细致的分析,总结了入境和国内客源市场的特点,划分了入境和国内旅游的三级客源目标市场,力图从旅游市场拓展方面为旅游业的发展做出有益的探索。     

江西省海外客源市场空间结构研究

旅游地客源市场空间结构对旅游业发展具有重要影响。通过研究2001-2010年江西省海外主要客源市场数据,分析了海外客源市场的集聚程度,得出江西省海外旅游市场所呈现的一些规律;探讨了江西海外旅游市场是否具有稳定性,并提出江西省在发展海外市场的一些对策。     

澳门博彩旅游客源市场“内地化”趋向的分析

博彩旅游业是澳门经济发展的战略平台。自2003年内地开放自由行以来,澳门博彩旅游客源市场的＂内地化＂趋势日益明显,澳门博彩旅游客源市场的这种内地化倾向给澳门经济发展带来了许多隐忧。从澳门在国际旅游体系的角色及城市功能地位出发,澳门博彩旅游业的未来发展应在加强区域旅游合作的基础上,走＂国际化＂的发展道路。为此,应采取相应措施,推动澳门博彩旅游客源市场向国际化方向发展。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

How chaebol restructuring after the 1997 crisis has affected corporate decision and performance in Korea: debt financing,ownership structure,and investment

ABSTRACT

Korean chaebol firms, characterized by excessive debt financing and overinvestment, experienced restructuring after the 1997 crisis. By reducing debt financing and thus overinvestment, they tried to reorganize financing structure and ownership structure. Chaebols’ debt reduction turns out to have improved performance. However, polarization between chaebol and non-chaebol firms has become more significant. Even after the crisis, firms that give higher cash flows to a controlling shareholder take more capital investment, indicating that agency problems still exist within chaebols. Chaebol-affiliated firms continue to be more active in R&D than non-chaebol firms. However, the pattern is limited to the group of top 10 chaebols after the crisis.

Abbreviations: KFTC: Korea Fair Trade Commission     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.     

A Humean theory of choice of which rationality may be one consequence

For the reader who considers economic theory of choice as a special case of a more general theory of action, Hume's discussion of the determinants of action in the Treatise of Human Nature (1739?–?40), in the Enquiry on Human Understanding (1748) and in the Dissertation on Passions (1757) deserves attention. However, according to some modern commentators, Hume does not seem to have given any evidence that would favour what nowadays we would consider as the kind of rationality involved in modern theories of rational choice. On the contrary, this paper arrives at the conclusion that consistency between preferences and choice, like the usual properties of completeness and transitivity, may be considered as outcomes of a mental process, described by means of a decision algorithm that aims to represent Hume's theory of choice.     

The concept of freedom and its relation to economic development--a critical appreciation of the work of Amartya Sen

Following a brief review of the conception of freedom as employedin economic discourse, this paper focuses on the evolution ofthe concept of freedom in the work of Amartya Sen. It tracesthe development of Sen's thought from the capability analysisof the late 1970s to his more recent separation of freedom intoits opportunity and process aspects. While broadly appreciativeof Sen's development of the concept of positive freedom, thepaper identifies some difficulties arising from his definitionof capability as a set of options as well as from his separationof the opportunity and process aspects of freedom. Aspects ofthe relationship between Sen's conception of freedom and thatof Marx are discussed briefly in the context of Sen's recentdiscussion of the market as a source of freedom.     

Types of technology

Technology is a concept rife with confusion. Here, I argue that technologies can be distinguished as a combination of type of producer and an idealized artefact life history. Using this definition, a number of technologies are identified. The first technology historically, in the Protostomes, was the production of individual or family dwellings. Next came objects such as spider webs for trapping prey. Stigmergy followed, with the social insects, as a collective endeavour to construct a mega-structure using simple rules of accretion. Some birds and primates began to make tools, or simple technological objects whose function is closely related to their form. Humans are distinguished by their ability to make machines. Traditional technology took place once people voluntarily organised into groups with specialised knowledge to produce more complex objects and structures. Monumental objects like ceremonial pyramids came with the command economies of the early agrarian societies, which also resulted in a new category of artefact, the network. Finally, with modern civilizations came ad hoc accretion, or population-level adding-on, to make truly complex technological systems. Developing a theoretical framework within which artefacts, production processes and ways of interacting with them are identified should help the study of technology to become more scientific.