欧元挑战美元:失去的机会

早在10年前,在欧元创立之初,欧元的国际地位就被提上了国际议程。随着全球金融危机的爆发,对美元的全球角色的质疑日渐增多,欧元受到了进一步关注。然而,当美元的国际地位备受审查时,欧盟及其货币还没有承担起任何积极主动的角色。本文探讨的是,欧元是否能逐渐成为国际货币,不仅在欧盟及其他国家的贸易中,还要在第三国之间的贸易中被使用,即欧元是否能挑战美元的当前地位,在国际货币体系中成为主要储备货币。     

国际储备货币欧元与美元的比较

现行的国际货币体系已然不如从前稳定,金融危机的爆发触动了美元的霸主地位,欧元的崛起似乎对其地位产生了更大威胁.作为重要的国际储备货币,欧元虽然已经具备一些优势,然而要撼动美元的霸主地位,其实力还显得不足.不过改革现行的国际货币体系已成为必然,改变美元独大的外汇储备格局已成为必然,欧元的出现将加快全球外汇资产继续向其他货币分散部署的步伐,在一定程度上改善了美元的单极储备格局.     

欧元危机的成因分析及其影响

随着全球三大评级公司标准普尔、穆迪和惠誉于陆续调降欧元区国家希腊、西班牙、葡萄牙、爱尔兰和意大利的主权债务评级,促使其主权债务融资环境日趋恶化,导致市场对欧元前景看空,欧元汇率大幅下跌,欧元危机愈演愈烈。本文深入探讨了欧元危机的成因,并对其影响进行分析,对于我们把握欧元危机未来的发展,建立国际经济新秩序提供了重要的参考。     

美元与欧元国际储备地位之比较分析

在目前的国际储备货币体系中，美元在国际储备货币体系中的比例为64．5％，而欧元的比例为14．6％．远远低于在欧元启动时人们的预期。欧元目前的地位是否反映了欧元在国际储备货币中应有的地位?本文试图从国际贸易需求的比较，币值稳定性的对比，以及货币收益率的对比来解析欧元目前在国际储备货币体系中的地位及其应有的位置。     

货币竞争下的美元与欧元国际货币地位比较分析

当前存在明显的国际货币竞争态势,突出表现为美元与欧元的竞争。从决定国际货币地位的经济总量、金融市场发达程度及币值稳定性等因素看,欧元已取得与美元一较高下的资格,但在网络外部性与政治因素上,美元明显优于欧元。欧元与美元在国际货币职能上仍存在较明显的差距,特别是在交易媒介、价值贮藏职能上美元优势明显,相对而言二者的计价单位职能地位较接近。     

欧元的“死穴”

在最新的欧洲经济展望报告中,花旗银行将矛头对准了塞浦路斯和希腊,称它们的主要债务重组措施,将会使那些苦苦挣扎的欧元区国家考虑退出单一货币区。事实上,欧元区解体的危机并非第一次出现。自欧元流通以来,关于欧元区的诅咒就从未停止。从传统的货币理论看,欧元就是一种怪胎——没有统一的政府信誉为后盾,流通国没有铸币权,甚至政府在整个货币政策上都没有自主权。但欧元不仅存活下来,而且在危机前表现得还非常抢眼。欧元进入国际金融市场流通后不久,便以三成市场份额成为仅次于美元的第二大储备货币,兑美元也处于长期升值的状态。之所以成立欧元区,主要是考虑在欧洲内部     

欧元的启动与我国的金融对策

本文介绍了欧元的由来及其产生后的发展态势，论述了欧元对全球金融体系所产生的影响，它不仅有利于推动全球金融体系的建立，促进国际资本的合理流动，同时也利于降低世界各国的货币储备成本，提出了欧元运作后我国应采取的金融对策     

债务危机冲击欧元储备货币地位

国际货币基金组织最近公布的"外汇储备货币组合"最新报告显示,发展中国家更为青睐美元储备,而对欧元储备则持续减持。这凸显出欧洲主权债务危机对欧元在全球金融体系中的地位所造成的损害。2012年,发展中国家持有的欧元外汇储备资产为6770亿欧元,共抛售448亿欧元,减持欧元资产6.2%。欧     

欧元影响中国

随着欧元正式进入流通领域，其所占的比重将会继续上升，欧元诞生前国际商品贸易中有一半左右都是以美元结算，官方外汇储备60%左右是美元，即使在前年，欧洲货币在国际外汇储备结构中的比重还不到美元的一半，但是，欧盟与区外的贸易量占世界的比重为20.9%，还稍微超过美国的19.6%的比重，仅前年欧元区11国（希腊尚未加入）的总贸易量就达40749亿美元，占世界的32.0%，是同期美国的两倍，这种局面必将因欧元的启动和流通而改变，根据美国国际经济研究所所长伯格斯腾的计算，预计欧元在国际商品贸易结算中的份额将从16%提高到25%，相应欧元占世界外汇储备的比重也将从20%左右上升到这个水平。     

欧元与美元国际竞争力分析

尽管欧元上市后运行状况高开低走，总体上对美元疲软，但它的启动势必掀起欧元和美元的国际地位之争。欧元的真正价值决不应该仅看汇率，考察其内在价值应以欧元区物价稳定与否和经济运行状况为准。未来随着欧美差距的缩小，欧盟实力的增强，欧元区渴望扩张，而美元随着纳指下跌，股市调整，浮盘清出和美国政府采取的一系列旨在刺激美国经济的措施的实施，其通过硬度仍在保持。两大货币将在经济的融合中竞争。     

The Euro: Reflections on the first three years

In the first three years of its (virtual) existence, the euro has seen a general decline in its value (notably against the dollar). In this paper we look at this issue and reflect on the implications of the decline for the future of the euro.The paper begins by briefly reviewing some of the explanations that have been put forward for the weakness of the euro, which might be seen as temporary factors or factors that do not arise from the creation of the eurozone per se. These explanations include the decline in the value of the euro as being a reaction to previous rises, interest rate differentials as favouring the dollar and the decline in the euro as being the obverse of a rise in the value of the dollar reflecting the strength of the US economy. These explanations are found to be unconvincing, and the view is advanced that there are serious weaknesses within the eurozone itself and in the construction of the eurosystem, along with its operation, that could be undermining the value of the euro. The divergent euro area may be one of the more significant factors contributing to the euro decline.     

人民币与欧元、美元、日元之间的汇率联动分析

利用向量自回归模型和多变量GARCH模型,对人民币汇率改革以来人民币、欧元、美元和日元之间的收益溢出效应和波动溢出效应进行了研究。结果显示欧元、美元和日元对人民币存在显著的收益溢出效应和波动溢出效应,但是人民币对其他几种货币的收益溢出效应和波动溢出效应并不显著。研究结果表明,人民币汇率形成机制改革以来,人民币汇率正在融入世界主要货币汇率市场,但是人民币汇率市场尚不成熟,目前我国仍然应该实行有管理的浮动汇率制度。     

Macroeconomic News and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate

This paper investigates to what extent daily movements in the euro/dollar rate were driven by news about the macroeconomic situation in the USA and the euro area during the first two years of EMU. We examine whether market participants reacted to news in different ways depending on whether the news came from the USA or from the euro area, and whether the news was good or bad. Furthermore, we investigate whether traders' reaction to news has changed over time. We find that macroeconomic news has a statistically significant correlation with daily movements of the euro against the dollar. However, this relationship exhibits considerable time variation. There are indications of asymmetric response, but to different extents at different times. Our results also provide evidence that the market seemed to ignore good news and remain fixated on bad news from the euro area, as often claimed in market commentaries, but only for some time. Finally, we find evidence that the impact of macroeconomic news on the euro/dollar rate was stronger when news switches from good to bad or vice versa.
(J.E.L.: F31).     

The Euro: An Italian perspective

The adoption of Euro as a common currency of twelve European countries has meant a considerable change in the Italian exchange rate policy. In the past, before Italy entered the EMS and again in 1992-96 when Italy temporarily left the EMS, the Italian monetary authorities enacted a policy of managed exchange rates, aiming at keeping the dollar rate stable, while letting the Italian lira depreciate vis-à-vis the German mark. By so doing, the danger of imported inflation was reduced (the dollar area was then a major import area) and at the same time the Italian exports to Europe were made easier. In the presence of a regime of fixed exchange rates in the European area, Italian industry is trying to make its exports more competitive by means of a reduction in costs. This means moving segments of production to small or middle-size firms, located in Italy as well as in developing countries. A further help is coming from the gradual but consistent depreciation of the Euro against the US dollar. The relevance of the dollar area in Italian exports has been correspondingly increasing.     

The Impact of Euro on Sectoral Equity Returns and Portfolio Risk

This paper examines the implications of the adoption of the euro and the resulting monetary policy integration for investors in the Euro area in terms of stock market diversification. In particular, we study the difference between investment strategies based on country indices and on sector indices. In addition, we use GARCH-M to model return and volatility for the daily sectoral euro equity indices from 1992 to 2009 to analyze how and to what extent volatility in the sector equity index is driven by shocks occurring in the US, aggregate European equity index, aggregate Euro Zone equity index, and the global equity index. We find strong evidence that diversification over sectors yields more efficient portfolios than diversification over countries and that the volatility spillover of the aggregated Euro zone equity return index on the sectoral equity return index has increased after the launch of the euro.     

欧元债券成长性分析——基于债券市场的发展

在欧元引入后的几年间,欧元债券市场呈现出蓬勃的发展态势.并在市场的规模、深度及广度等各层面上产生了可观的进步,且随着市场工具不断的深化革新,市场构造的进一步完善,实现了很大程度的市场一体化.     

欧元区自救措施缺陷解析

欧元国家的自救措施目前看来虽取得了一定的效果,挽救欧元于将倾,但这些措施中具有明显的缺陷,故欧元的前景依然不甚明朗。本文认为欧元国家自救措施的缺陷有:系统风险未能分散;各国利益博弈特征明显;自救措施的指导思路存在利己性和狭隘性,使自救行动陷入进退两难境地而未能解决欧元区根本问题。     

Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model

Following the global financial crisis, the Euro Area (EA) has experienced a persistent slump and notable trade balance adjustments, but with pronounced differences across EA Member States. We estimate a multi-country structural macroeconomic model to assess and compare the main drivers of GDP growth and trade balance adjustment across Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. We find that the pronounced post-crisis slump in Italy and Spain was mainly driven by positive saving shocks (‘deleveraging’) and by an increase in investment and intra-euro risk premia. Fiscal austerity in Spain and the productivity slowdown in Italy have been additional sizable contributors to the economic downturn. The results further suggest that euro depreciation, heightened intra-euro risk premia and subdued investment had a sizable impact on the trade balance reversals in Italy and Spain, which has been offset in France by a strong increase in imports and lower exports.     

Euro Crises and Euro Scams: Trade not Debt and Deficits Tell the Tale

The euro crisis has been typically presented as excessive fiscal deficits leading to the accumulation of unsustainable public debts. This debt and deficit diagnosis applied most notably in Greece and Italy, but also in Portugal and Spain (the ‘PIGS’). Implicit in much of the analysis, and occasionally explicit, is the suggestion that these were not only profligate but also lazy PIGS that spent beyond their means and abandoned a commitment to international competitiveness. This article demonstrates that the German export-led growth strategy generated large trade and current account deficits throughout the eurozone in the 2000s. When the global financial crisis struck the continent in 2008, these trade-based deficits proved unsustainable. With the exception of Greece, neither public debts nor fiscal deficits represented a major problem among eurozone countries prior to 2008. The analysis leads to measures that could have avoided the crisis of sovereign debt entirely, as well as corrected the unsustainable trade balances in the euro zone. These policies were not seriously considered, with the result that in the second decade of the 21st century the future of the common currency is in doubt.