信贷紧缩、企业价值与最优贷款利率

本文创新性地将银行的断贷决策视为一项实物期权,并用几何布朗运动刻画企业现金流的不确定性,考察贷款利率、银行断贷决策与企业价值之间的关系。研究发现,在企业现金流存在不确定性且企业破产不可逆的条件下,企业价值与贷款利率之间呈"倒U型"关系,使企业价值最大化的最优贷款利率是对企业融资成本和银行贷款激励的最优权衡。尽管较低的贷款利率有利于节约企业的融资成本,但当贷款利率低于"最优贷款利率"时,银行的信贷支持将缺乏包容性,企业反而可能因"节约"了融资成本而面临资金链断裂的风险。本文不仅为不确定环境下的银企合作问题提供了新的理论框架,还为中小企业"融资贵"现象提供了新的解释。     

利率调整对我国居民住房按揭贷款产生的影响及政策建议

在我国居民住房按揭贷款负担已经比较高的情况下,面对利率的上升,贷款人的供房负担进一步上升。在我国居民收入水平没有大幅提高以及信用体系还不完善的体制下,银行面临着借款人被迫违约和理性违约的风险。文章针对利率调整对我国居民住房按揭贷款产生的影响及政策建议进行了分析。     

银企关系对制造业中小企业贷款利率的影响研究——来自江苏徐州和广西柳州典型样本的证据

通过对江苏徐州和广西柳州典型样本的调研发现,在中小企业贷款中,实际上存在着"绑定效应",当中小企业在银行的贷款占自己资金缺口的比重较大时,出于风险控制和攫取更多剩余的目的,银行会提高贷款利率;当中小企业的融资渠道较多时,银行贷款利率反而因为中小企业的融资需求旺盛而提高。用中小企业与银行的合作年限、中小企业在该银行贷款比重等进行衡量的银企关系深度越强,中小企业银行贷款利率反而越高,而用中小企业在银行开办的其他业务数量来衡量的银企关系的广度越强,中小企业贷款的利率则会越低。     

抵押贷款法律适用若干问题

抵押贷款是按《中华人民共和国担保法》规定的抵押方式,以借款人或第三人的财产作为抵押物发放的贷款,是担保贷款的一种方式。在实践中,根据《贷款通则》及《商业银行法》的规定,贷款人发放贷款时,可发放信用贷款或担保贷款,但信用贷款一方面借款人较难取得,要经过贷款人审查、评估,确认借款资信良好,确能偿还贷款的,才可获得;另一方面,贷款人承担的风险较大,一旦借款人在贷款到期不能还本付息,银行的贷款将面临收不回来的风险,严重影响贷款的安全性。因此,贷款人在发放贷款时,是以发放担保贷款为原则的。抵押素有“担保之…     

贷款利率无“下限”

近年来,随着利率市场化的推进,银行也在加强定价能力。银行贷款利率在很少情况下有下浮,有些银行甚至声称其贷款没有一笔利率是下浮的。取消贷款利率下限不过是央行对商业银行＂温柔的一刀＂,象征意义重于实际。中国的利率市场化改革又进一步。7月20日,央行宣布＂进一步推进利率市场化改革措施＂,包括放开贷款利率下限,取消票据贴现利率管制,对农信社放开贷款利率上限,同时维持个人住房贷款利率浮动区间不变。央行称,全面放开贷款利率管制有利于降低企业融资成本,提升银行服务水平,更好发挥金融支持实体经济的作用。     

当前我国中小企业融资环境现状及存在的问题

我国资本市场对中小企业上市，门槛较高。大多数中小企业的经营规模和管理能力不能达到要求，他们难以参与发行股票或债券这些社会直接融资方式。银行贷款是我国中小企业融资的主要渠道，但融资依然困难重重：一是中小企业自有资金少，经营风险较大，抵押财产有限；二是我国银行以国有独资银行为主，由于利率没有市场化，而且中小企业贷款额小而分散，造成银行的贷款资金管理成本高。     

河南省开展小微企业集群融资的必要性、可行性和保障措施分析

小微企业已成为河南省经济社会发展的重要支撑力量,但融资难仍是制约小微企业发展的突出问题.鉴于直接融资市场尚不成熟、互联网融资相关法律法规仍不完善,银行贷款是河南省小微企业融资的首要选择.由于银行风险控制要求与小微企业信用担保能力差、经营风险大之间的矛盾,银行贷款业务的逐利性与小微企业贷款规模不经济之间的矛盾,以及小微企业制度建设不规范导致的信息不对称,河南省银行机构小微企业贷款增长乏力.集群融资可以降低信息不对称程度,提高小微企业信用担保水平,降低银行贷款风险和贷款成本,因此,集群融资是河南省缓解小微企业贷款难、贷款贵的可行选择.在推广集群融资过程中,需要采取有效措施,以规避集群融资风险.     

如何防范个人住房贷款风险

个人住房贷款是指贷款人向借款人发放的用于购买自用的普通住房的贷款。个人住房贷款,对百姓、银行、政府,都有积极作用。但由于诸多原因发放个人住房贷款还存在一些风险。为更好地发挥个人住房贷款的积极作用,需采取切实可行的措施防范、化解风险。一、个人住房贷款的风险1信用风险。银行在发放住房消费贷款过程中会面临许多风险,仅借款给银行带来的信用风险就很大。住房消费信用风险是指在贷款合同期内,借款人可能由于某种原因而引起贷款无力偿还的风险。由于我国缺乏健全的个人信用制度,对个人财务收支状况难以确定,借贷人有无负债和不良…     

信息垄断与市场结构:IPO如何影响银行贷款利率

企业首次公开募股(IPO)之后,银行信息垄断的打破会降低银行贷款利率,但大型国有银行贷款利率下降的程度要小于中小股份制银行,而且垄断性市场结构的信息垄断比竞争性市场结构更难打破,此外,大型国有银行偏好大型企业和贷款.针对中国金融市场改革本文提出的建议是:优化金融市场融资结构,推进利率市场化改革,提高信贷市场竞争程度,以及健全中小企业融资机制等.     

银行业税制结构与企业融资方式的选择

基于现代金融中介理论来考察税收对融资方式选择的影响,其结果表明:在完全竞争条件下,当银行为客户提供的交易服务成本很低时,以较低的税率对储蓄利息开征利息所得税不会影响储户(或投资者)在储蓄和直接投资之间的选择;对银行贷款利息收入开征营业税,则会引起税收转嫁,提高贷款利息率,使部分企业选择直接融资方式而不是从银行贷款;银行业所得税也会提高贷款利率,减少贷款需求量。     

经典利息理论及其蕴含的贷款定价思想

影响金融机构贷款定价的因素是多维度的,而贷款利率的决定则是其基础。但是,当代西方经济学家在研究贷款定价时却往往忽略贷款利率的决定基础,模型设计里未能反映贷款定价的一些基本要素。与此同时,上世纪50-60年代业已发展成熟的经典利息理论回答了利率如何被决定这一重要问题,蕴含了丰富的贷款定价思想。本文通过回顾与利率决定相关的经典利息理论,指出贷款定价必须重视贷款项目的收益与风险,必须考虑银行的资产结构、市场基准利率和贷款期限,且贷款定价的研究方法应采用局部均衡的非综合模型,重点考虑微观因素。而非宏观因素。     

中国银行业存贷利差偏低抑或过高之辨

人们普遍有这样一个认识,为了补贴相对低效率的银行业,中国政府通过利率管制等手段长期维持着一个较高的存贷利差。但研究表明,中国银行业存贷利差在国际范围内其实处于相对较低的水平。本文讨论了利差偏低的原因及影响,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

Credit union loan rate determinants in the United States

ABSTRACT

Credit union participation in the consumer lending market continues to grow as an increasing number of consumers and small businesses become members and open accounts. This study investigates the determinants of credit union loan rates during a period of economic expansion in the United States using fourth quarter 2015 data for 5,942 credit unions. Five different interest rate categories are analysed using nine potential loan rate determinants. Results indicate that loan rates tend to be lower as credit union size increases, while high ratios for net charge-offs and operating costs cause interest rates to increase. Opposite to what is expected, loan rates are positively correlated with regional unemployment rates. A possible explanation for this outcome is that weak labour markets are associated with elevated loan delinquency rates and, therefore, greater default risks resulting in higher interest rates.     

Loan price modelling for local governments using risk premium analysis

Previous studies have highlighted the question of government loan interest as one of great current importance. Government borrowing levels are high, and reducing interest payments would generate savings to meet other spending needs and/or to lower taxation, thus supporting the sustainability of public finances. However, no previous study has presented a method for a local government to calculate its own credit risk and thus be in a position to negotiate lower interest rates on its borrowing. This article defines a financial model that enables local governments to estimate the interest rate payable on a bank loan, based on their credit risk premium, in accordance with the Basel II rules and the findings of our empirical study of large local governments.     

CREDIT CONSTRAINTS IN THE MARKET FOR CONSUMER DURABLES: EVIDENCE FROM MICRO DATA ON CAR LOANS*

We investigate the significance of borrowing constraints in the market for consumer loans. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey on auto loan contracts we estimate the elasticities of loan demand with respect to interest rate and maturity. We find that, with the exception of high income households, consumers are very responsive to maturity and less responsive to interest rate changes. Both elasticities vary with household income, with the maturity elasticity decreasing and the interest rate elasticity increasing with income. We argue that these results are consistent with the presence of binding credit constraints in the auto loan market.     

THE NEW THEORY OF COMMERCIAL BANKING AND BANK LENDING BEHAVIOR

This paper studies the bank's lending decision, based on three observed phenomena: banks earn substantial profits from off‐balance sheet activities and services, which they take into account in their lending decisions. Secondly, the critical point in the customer relation is the loan decision: the probability of the customer staying with the bank is a function of the loan extended each time one is applied for. Third, what is at stake in the loan decision is the expected value of the entire customer relation, which is the probability times the present value of expected future profits. The bank is a maximizer of this expected present value, while making decisions on individual loan applications. It is shown that the bank is in a corner solution with respect to its good customers, and other customers often have an incentive to get to a corner. Therefore, corner solutions may be the rule rather than the exception in the bank's customer relations, and there is no mechanism making the bank indifferent, at the margin, between lending to different customers. It can be optimal to extend loans to (present and expected future) good customers at an interest rate loss. A rationed customer with a concave enough probability function can receive a larger loan by asking for less. Loyalty increases the customer's value to the bank but improves its loan terms only if the customer makes it conditional on the loan extended.     

物价稳定与房价：货币政策视角

住房价格变化是货币政策需要关注的重要指标。本文在梳理现有文献的基础上,研究了物价稳定与房价变动的关系,发现房价是物价变动的重要原因,而M1和贷款利率是房价变动的格兰杰原因。通过进一步建立结构性VAR模型,我们发现房价受到贷款利率影响最大,而物价受到货币供应量的影响最大。针对房价与物价变动的三个场景可以采取不同的货币政策操作：1、房价过快增长,物价保持稳定。此时为了避免房价对未来物价的冲击,又不影响到当前物价的稳定,可以提高贷款利率,并保持相对宽松的货币供给以对冲房价下跌对物价的不利影响,达到抑制房价而不影响物价的效果。2、房价和物价双双过快增长。此时,应调整贷款利率、准备金率和货币供应量,三管齐下加以治理。3、物价过快增长,而房价较为稳定。为了避免打压房价,可以不调整贷款利率、准备金率,仅控制货币供应量。     

中国利率市场化达到什么程度

中国利率市场化在曲折中前进,实现了货币市场与债券市场的市场化改革,然而具有决定性意义的存贷款利率市场化程度相对滞后。包括商业银行、国有企业在内的微观主体的市场化程度对中国利率市场化改革的未来具有决定性作用。对于中国这样一个仍处于转轨中的大国来说,所谓"利率的充分市场化"殊不可取,改革必须行渐进之路。     

国有商业银行与股份制商业银行的长期贷款特征差异研究——基于我国上市公司长期借款数据

选择2009年上市公司的银行贷款为研究样本,将其分为仅获得国有商业银行和仅获得股份制商业银行贷款的两组相对立的样本,对其进行独立样本T检验,研究两种性质银行在选择贷款客户、贷款定价上的差异。以期对我国金融政策的完善方面提供有益的借鉴。