The use of Delphi methodology in agrifood policy development: Some lessons learned

Developing policy in the agrifood area is an inexact process, usually relying upon effective integration of opinions from multiple experts from different disciplines, organisational types, and regions/countries. Delphi would appear to have the potential to overcome some of the typical limitations related to soliciting expert opinion and identifying consensus on future activities or options, particularly where relevant experts are dispersed geographically, and international consensus is required, as is the case in this domain. Three case studies, focused on the application of Delphi to emerging policy needs in international or European agrifood policy, are presented here to exemplify the utility of the technique. A number of practical recommendations are drawn from these case studies that may be applicable to other major policy making arenas. Among these recommendations are; that an exploratory workshop to refine round one Delphi questions is essential; that the implementation of “cascade” methodology (utilizing the personal contacts of researchers or members of existing policy networks) appears to increase response rates in subsequent Delphi rounds; and that the policy issue under discussion should be particularly relevant to stakeholders in order to increase participation rates. Further research might usefully focus on developing ways to incorporate measurements of uncertainty associated with stakeholder judgement into quantitative responses, and on establishing how best to utilise such information in feedback in subsequent Delphi rounds. Ensuring how best to inform policy uptake of the outputs of Delphi merits further research in particular.     

A dissensus based online Delphi approach: An explorative research tool

This paper presents an adapted Delphi methodology that is, contrary to the classical Delphi design is not aiming to minimize expert estimation variance, but to maximize the range of expert opinions inputted sequentially into an online system. After discussing the traditional Delphi approach and its dissensus based derivatives, the author opens the case for a dissensus Delphi based explorative research tool with special consideration of the Delphi aim, the expert sample and the Delphi design. The proposed online Delphi process is then presented conceptually. Next, the proposed tool is demonstrated based on a prototype, exploring the barrier factors to the adoption of mobile data services. A discussion on the theoretical design and practical R&D experience of the dissensus based online Delphi approach concludes the paper.     

A fuzzy multiple criteria comparison of technology forecasting methods for predicting the new materials development

New materials have been recognized as key drivers for corporate profitability and growth in today's fast changing environments. To predict correctly the development of the new materials becomes a critical issue. However, little has been done in discussing the selection of technology forecasting methods for the new materials development. Accordingly, this study adopted the fuzzy AHP method to obtain professional's opinions on this issue. The efforts result in seven evaluation criteria with one, the “data validity” having the highest weight, followed by “method adaptability” and “technology predictability”. Delphi method and case study method are the two most applicable technology forecasting methods for predicting the new materials development.     

Review of Delphi-based scenario studies: Quality and design considerations

For meaningful scenarios, creative input concerning possible future trends is crucial. Herman Kahn, the father of modern scenario planning, underlined the importance of “thinking the unthinkable” in a significant scenario study. “Blessed with high intelligence, an assertive personality and the research capabilities of the RAND Corporation,” he could rely on genius forecasting. But how can this foresight be creative as well as simultaneously credible and objective if one does not possess Kahn's genius? In this article, we assess the incorporation of expert knowledge via the Delphi technique into scenario planning as a promising option. We discuss possible combinations and identify the span of design alternatives in the existing body of Delphi-based scenario studies through a systematic research review and provide recommendations on how a Delphi-based scenario study should be designed to ensure quality. We recommend focusing on the integration of the Delphi technique only in one phase of the scenario approach. In this way, the design options can be intentionally adjusted to the particular function. We further offer recommendations on how to accomplish this.     

A Delphi-based risk analysis — Identifying and assessing future challenges for supply chain security in a multi-stakeholder environment

Identifying and assessing the potential impact and likelihood of future events, which might evolve into risks, are a prerequisite to identify future security challenges. In particular, risks associated with global supply chains are special since they involve a multitude of international stakeholders with different perspectives on security needs and measures. Therefore, it is essential to determine which techniques and instruments are best suited for risk assessment in complex and multi-organizational environments. The Delphi expert survey technique has proven to be a valuable instrument for long-term decision making support as well as foresight, and has a potential value for risk assessment. We contribute to this research strand and conduct a Delphi-based risk analysis. Our research concentrates on man-made risks in global supply chains which are particularly uncertain in terms of type, location, and affected supply chain partners and can therefore be classified as inherently “wicked” issues, i.e. issues that are multidimensional with often unpleasant outcomes. We illustrate that Delphi research makes a fivefold contribution to risk analysis by: (1) identifying and quantifying risks; (2) analyzing stakeholder perceptions and worldviews; (3) stimulating a global communication process; (4) identifying weak signals, outlier opinions, and wildcards; (5) and facilitating risk scenario development.     

Is diversity in Delphi panelist groups useful? Evidence from a French forecasting exercise on the future of nuclear energy

This paper further enhances the analytical power of Delphi methodology by identifying the advantages, disadvantages and challenges presented by increasing diversity among panel groups. Using Delphi survey data on the future of nuclear energy in France, we analyze the origins of the variety of judgments within and between two panels: one of experts and one of laypeople. We investigate the determinants of the stability of those opinions both in one given round and over several rounds of opinion-formation. We reach an apparently paradoxical conclusion: that non-expert judgment is less stable, but not necessarily less accurate, than that of experts, judgments on the part of experts sometimes being clouded by self-interest. Apart from highlighting some factors underlying the controversy over nuclear power, our paper calls for greater participatory democracy in Delphi panels, but also demonstrates the limits of such an extension.     

EFTE: An interactive Delphi method

A new expert opinion technique is developed and applied to estimate the impact of information technologies on clerical work. EFTE stands for estimate, feedback, talk, estimate—the sequence of steps involved in this variant on the Delphi approach. EFTE offers advantages in obtaining expert opinions on complex tasks where social interaction poses little problem.     

The UK technology foresight programme: An assessment of expert estimates

Since the early 1990s, ‘Technology Foresight’ exercises with special emphasis on the use of Delphi surveys have played an important role in science and technology (S + T) policy across Europe in an effort to focus resource allocation. Yet, none of the estimates made in the European Delphi surveys have been formally assessed in retrospect, while this process has been incorporated into the Japanese surveys since 1996. Taking the UK Technology Foresight Programme, this research sets out to assess the estimates of three of the fifteen panel Delphi surveys. Whilst on average 2/3 of Delphi statements were predicted to be realised by 2004, it will be shown that only a fraction of these statements had been realised by 2006. Based on the evidence collected from the published panel reports, the ‘Hindsight on Foresight’ survey conducted by OST in 1995 and interviews with panel members, it will be argued that the overwhelming majority of estimates were overly optimistic. While optimism and strategic gaming of experts is the most convincing explanation for these results, process factors were also explored, including the quality of expert panels used, the Delphi statements and the respondents of the Delphi questionnaire. It is argued that at least the issue of short-range optimism and strategic gaming of experts should be addressed in future Delphi exercises, as decision makers relying on expert advice cannot deal with this issue alone.     

Valuation of environmental goods: A shadow value perspective

This paper proposes a shadow value-based methodology for the economic valuation of environmental goods. The proposed method derives from a “cost of production perspective”. This type of approach represents advantages with respect to usual methods linked with “demand perspective”, when the interests of future generations is under consideration. The computational procedure is simple and the required information easy to obtain. We explain how the methodology works with the help of a forestry example.     

RT Delphi: An efficient, “round-less” almost real time Delphi method

The authors have recently developed a new approach to performing a Delphi study that does not involve the use of sequential “rounds” and as a result, greatly improves the efficiency of the process and shortens the time to perform such studies. This paper describes this process, RT Delphi, and illustrates its use in a decision-making application drawn from the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University. The illustrative application involves setting priorities among strategies for dealing with anticipated terrorist activities that might be initiated by a single deranged individual.     

Arbitrage-free valuation of interest rate securities under forward curves with stochastic speed and acceleration

Arbitrage-free models for valuing interest rate securities posit that stochastic changes in spot or forward interest rates (forward rate “speed”) follow a diffusion process. This paper extends the Heath, Jarrow and Morton [Bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates: a new methodology for contingent claims valuations, Econometrica 60 (1992) 77-105], HJM framework by allowing diffusive shocks to both the “speed” and “acceleration” of forward rates. The arbitrage-free restriction on forward rates is identified and involves volatilities of the speed and acceleration dynamics and their correlation. Although the extended forward rates remain in the diffusive framework and evolve continuously, they may exhibit large changes over short intervals (as with jumps) due to stochastic acceleration. Comparisons of bond prices show that the proposed model generates more complex and intricate shapes for the restricted forward curve with the same number of stochastic factors and volatility.     

Personal attitudes in the assessment of the future of science and technology: A factor analysis approach

In 1996, the second German Delphi study (“Delphi '98”) was started. The Delphi '98 is a two-round Delphi expert survey being conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Education, Research, Science, and Technology (BMBF). The study was published in February 1998, and is now getting into its implementation phase. Its inherent focus is on the development of science and technology in 12 thematic fields in the next 30 years. To arrive at a better understanding of the influence of personal attitudes towards general developments in natural environment and society, the respondents were asked in the first round of the Delphi survey for their personal opinion towards several megatrends concerning the natural environment, economic, sociological, and political developments. Over 2,300 answers led to a very solid database, which gives insights into the general attitudes of the German R&D experts. On some topics, there is a high consensus, whereas in others, opposite opinions coexist. These results may serve as the database for a factor analysis leading to the identification of five different expert types. This paper examines the crucial question of whether different patterns in assessing the future development in science and technology by expert types can be observed. In general, it turned out that differences in personal attitudes towards megatrends do not influence the estimation of developments in science and technology. However, differences exist in specific topics and the distribution of the five experts types among the respondents differs significantly in the 12 fields.     

A methodology for science and technology planning based upon economic scenarios and Delphi techniques : The case of Mexican agroindustry

A methodology for S & T planning using Delphi panels, matrix analysis, and linear programming techniques is described. It is applied to Mexican agroindustry, thus defining priority areas, overall strategies, and policy instruments. The implications of this methodology for planning processes in underdeveloped countries are discussed.     

Oligopsony and the distribution of wages

We propose a simple model of wage dispersion arising from oligopsonistic competition in the labor market. Our model has workers who are equally able but who have heterogeneous preferences for non-wage characteristics, while employers have heterogeneous productivity characteristics. We completely and explicitly solve for the equilibrium wage distribution and show that “inside” and “outside” forces interact in wage determination. This interaction generates spillover effects of minimum wages in a manner which is consistent with the empirical evidence.     

Elicitation using multiple price list formats

We examine the properties of a popular method for eliciting choices and values from experimental subjects, the multiple price list format. The main advantage of this format is that it is relatively transparent to subjects and provides simple incentives for truthful revelation. The main disadvantages are that it only elicits interval responses, and could be susceptible to framing effects. We consider extensions to address and evaluate these concerns. We conclude that although there are framing effects, they can be controlled for with a design that allows for them. We also find that the elicitation of risk attitudes is sensitive to procedures, subject pools, and the format of the multiple price list table, but that the qualitative findings that participants are generally risk averse is robust. The elicitation of discount rates appear less sensitive to details of the experimental design. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at . JEL Classification C9, D81, D91 An erratum to this article is available at .     

GOS tree (Goal-Objective-Strategy tree) approach to strategic planning using a fuzzy-Delphi process: An application to the Indian Shrimp Industry

Setting long-term goals, specifying short-term objectives, and formulating strategies to achieve the objectives are the key elements in a strategic planning process. In this paper, we have used hierarchical relationships among these key elements to propose a Goal-Objective-Strategy (GOS) tree. We have proposed an algorithm to validate the structural relationship between two hierarchically adjacent elements of the GOS tree by getting their feasibility score rated in a five-point linguistic scale with the help of a Delphi questionnaire survey. The linguistic scores were then converted into fuzzy scores and consensus of Delphi experts' opinions on feasibility of various statements were derived mathematically using fuzzy aggregation algorithm. We have applied the GOS-tree-based approach as a tool for strategic planning for the Indian Shrimp Industry that has displayed a cyclic performance in the past and has shown signs of rejuvenation in recent times.     

Participants' response to the Delphi method: An attitudinal perspective

The processes involved in an individual's response to the Delphi method are conditioned by a number of psychological affects. This paper examines aspects of two of these processes: the basis for changing opinions, and the factors related to continued participation in subsequent Delphi rounds. The attitudinal perspective is shown to be promising in explaining an individual panelist's response in the Delphi method. Cognitive dissonance apparently has a significant role to play in bolstering the assimilation of nonconforming respondents. This is, however, complicated by the respondents' perception of the credibility of the feedback received. Careful choice of panels may reduce dropouts, presumably by selecting those with a high degree of ego involvement. Nonetheless, elements of cognitive dissonance apparently lead certain panelists to abandon the Delphi process. It is evident that numerous parallels exist between psychological explanations of attitude change and the behavior of Delphi panelists.     

Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences

The Delphi method is a popular technique for forecasting and an aid in decision-making based on the opinions of experts, which has been in existence for over half a century. This work evaluates its methodology and reviews its validity in the present day, especially in the area of Social Sciences. Three recent applications in this field are also explained, professional in nature, which have some characteristics that are not frequent with respect to other Delphi studies published. The main aim of two of these studies was to provide input for economic or statistical quantitative models, using the judgement of expert groups, while the third study aimed to analyse a complex social reality by means of a Policy Delphi in order to obtain reliable information before taking a policy decision. These applications highlight how this technique may be adapted to different social realities and requirements, making a positive contribution to social progress, provided it is applied with the necessary methodological rigour and with a good knowledge of the social medium in which it is being applied. Finally, there is an explanation of a number of lessons learned from the theory and aforementioned experiences, which may contribute to the successful outcome of a Delphi exercise.     

Gender differences in time preferences

This paper reports the results from a large online experiment in which we examine gender differences in time preferences. Subjects choose in different situations between receiving an immediate payment and receiving a different sum later. We find that more men than women are impatient and choose to receive the immediate payment, at least if the implicit interest rate of the “late” option is neither too high nor too low.     

Ecology and valuation: Big changes needed

Ecological Economics has developed as a “transdisciplinary science,” but it has not taken significant steps toward a truly integrated process of evaluating anthropogenic ecological change. The emerging dominance within ecological economics of the movement to monetize “ecological services,” when combined with the already well-entrenched dominance of contingent pricing as a means to evaluate impacts on amenities, has created a “monistic” approach to valuation studies. It is argued that this monistic approach to evaluating anthropogenic impacts is inconsistent with a sophisticated conception of ecology as a complex science that rests on shifting metaphors. An alternative, pluralistic and iterative approach to valuation of anthropogenic ecological change is proposed.