Direct Foreign Investment and Welfare in the Transforming Economies: The Case of Central Asia

This paper studies the welfare effects of foreign investment into an economy with a trade regime of export taxes and/or import subsidies. This regime is characteristic of the Central Asian economies but has received no consideration in previous literature. We show that in many circumstances, foreign investment into an economy with a Central-Asian-type trade regime reduces welfare. In particular, we find that foreign investment is most likely to immiserize when it is directed toward nondistorted traded sectors or free trade zones.J. Comp. Econom.,June 1997,24(3), pp. 297–312. University of Miami, P.O. Box 248126, Coral Gables, Florida 33124.     

Quality of Imports Relative to Exports,and the Transmission of Sustained Growth through the Terms of Trade

Abstract

This paper shows that an economy can import sustained growth, in spite of not possessing mechanisms to absorb foreign knowledge. To do that, it develops a two-country model of exogenous growth with investment-specific technological change. In autarky, one country sustainably grows while the other economy remains stagnant. In the trade situation, the quality-adjusted terms of trade become increasingly favourable to the second economy, which results in the transmission of growth. The continuous improvement in the quality of imported capital goods relative to exported consumption goods is the reason why this occurs. Moreover, this mechanism leads to convergence in per capita income if trade involves incomplete specialisation.     

Specialization in a dynamic trade model: An overlapping generations case

Abstract

We explore a small open economy with overlapping generations to show that demographic structure is an important factor for the determination of a production pattern in the dynamic trade theory. In the representative agent model, Baxter (1992) shows that even if there are two commodities and two production factors, there is a Ricardian implication that opening up to trade leads to perfect specialization in a small open economy. In contrast, using the overlapping generations model, we find that the heterogeneity of the economic agents generally makes imperfect specialization occur. We also find that whether the stability condition holds or not is crucial for the determination of the long-run production pattern.     

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Poland's Trade with the European Union

Over 75% of FDI in Poland originates from the EU. The EU also predominates in the exports and imports of FDI companies. The objective of this article is to examine whether FDI is likely to replace trade or to create new trade flows. In particular, the article shows the influence of FDI on Poland's trade with the EU. The FDI impact on Polish trade can be seen as its contribution to export creation. Moreover, externalities caused by trade and FDI inflow are influencing Polish specialisation patterns, which is important in the process of integrating the economy into the world market.     

Revisiting the Relevance of International Trade Theory

Probably one of the most controversial contributions to the literature of international trade theory was offered by the late social economist John Culbertson. In his view, low wage competition among corporations in a world characterized by capital mobility and massive trade deficits undermines the foundation trade theory based on David Ricardo’s celebrated notion of comparative advantage. Instead, there are several good reasons to believe that international trade with China, India, Vietnam, etc. will be governed by absolute advantage. The current essay is dedicated to the virtually ignored work of Culbertson, and it is meant as an invitation for social economists to critically evaluate the argument and in the process make an attempt to point out where it goes wrong.

The Role of Non-monetary Trade in Russian Transition

The appearance of significant non-monetary trade in the Russian transition of 1992-98 has been differently interpreted by analysts and observers. Some have seen barter as a symbol of passive resistance to reforms while others have blamed reformist policies for its development. We argue that non-monetary trade is best understood as a natural response of companies to market imperfections remaining from Soviet times. We provide an overview of market institutions that existed at the onset of the transition and conclude that market infrastructure was under-developed (especially trade and finance-related institutions). This fact became obvious after the liberalisation of trade in 1992. When the Central Bank of Russia stopped issuing direct credit to enterprises, newly established commercial banks were unable to fill the gap. Firms had to develop alternative means of financing trade and non-monetary trade was one of them. In our opinion barter, while an inefficient mode of trade, also played a positive role in the transition. Its high transaction costs offered ample opportunities to earn profits from trade and financial intermediation. The latter mushroomed as a result and at the time of the 1998 default the Russian economy had sufficiently developed trade, financial and legal systems to afford a switch from barter to money trade.     

Political economy of virtue: civil economy,happiness and public trust in the thought of Antonio Genovesi

Abstract

Amid the growing literature in English on the work of the Neapolitan political economist Antonio Genovesi (1713–1769), this paper focuses on his conception of civil economy (economia civile) as a theory of government. By contrast with existing interpretations, the argument is that for Genovesi virtue is a significant ordering device of the polity: virtue mediates between passions and reason, and the human capacity for virtue helps individuals better to realise their different talents. This, in turn, means that virtue is central to the division of labour and the right proportions between different activities, including the balance between consumption and trade.     

Do sunspots matter under complete ignorance?

In a two-period, sunspot, pure-exchange economy we analyse the case in which agents do not assign subjective probabilistic beliefs to the ‘sunspot activity’. Two generations, each of which is made up of identical agents, populate this economy. Participation in the Arrow securities market is restricted and the generation, which is allowed to trade in assets, can alternatively face uncertainty via two distribution-free decision rules under ‘complete ignorance’ (axiomatized by Milnor [Milnor, J., 1954. Games against nature. In: Thrall, R. Coombs, C., Davis, R. (Eds.), Decision Processes. John Wiley, London, pp. 49–60]): the ‘minimax regret criterion’ [Savage, L.J., 1954. The Foundations of Statistics. Wiley, New York, ch. 9] and the ‘maxmin return criterion’ [Wald, A., 1950. Statistical Decision Functions. Wiley, New York]. When the former is used, then sunspots can matter. In particular, we prove that, if the economy admits two Walrasian equilibria, then a unique sunspot equilibrium always exists. We pin down this equilibrium, determine the prices of the Arrow securities and show that, at these prices, no trade in securities takes place. In the same framework we prove that, with agents using the maxmin return criterion, sunspots do not matter.     

The debate over grain in the 1750s. A cliometric point of view

Abstract

During the 1750s the grain debate agitated French opinion and contributed to the creation of the new science of political economy. It was notable as a confrontation between those who defended the regulation of commerce and partisans of free trade. In this paper we test some of the arguments made at that time, using cliometric techniques which we apply to existing data as well as to new, reconstituted data.     

The Economic Sustainability of Post-conflict Kosovo

Kosovo is currently operating as an independent economic state, having severed the majority of economic links with the former Yugoslavia. This article explains why the Yugoslav dinar was replaced by the DM (in turn replaced by the Euro) as the new national currency of post-conflict Kosovo. Use of the DM, coupled with a relatively open trade policy, has resulted in a severe visible trade deficit. The stock of DM is continuously being replenished by the inflow of money both from the various international agencies operating in Kosovo and from remittances from Kosovars working abroad. The article argues that, even with the current low level of export earnings, the economy of Kosovo is economically sustainable, since the international presence in Kosovo is partly responsible for the high demand for imports. However, in the absence of a competitive export sector, the economy is still highly reliant upon the inflow of remittances, without which Kosovo would be unable to meet the costs of vital imports.     

Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy

This paper examines the influence of monetary aggregates shocks in the U.S., China and the Euro area on Japan. China's monetary expansion has significant effects on Japan's economy that are quite different from those of the U.S. and Euro area. In line with the implications of the Mundell–Fleming model when there are capital controls in place, Chinese monetary expansion is found to primarily affect Japan through trade. The income absorption effect of China's monetary expansion is substantial for Japan. China's monetary expansion results in significant increases in Japan's industrial production, exports and inflation, and decreases in the trade-weighted yen. After 24 months, monetary shocks in China forecast 20% of the variation in Japan's real trade balance. In contrast, U.S. monetary expansion results in contraction in Japan's industrial production, exports and trade balance (expenditure-switching). Monetary expansion in the Euro area does not significantly affect Japan. Structural vector error correction models and a factor-augmented model are estimated to establish robustness of results.     

On the Causality between Trade Credits and Imports: Evidence and Possible Implication for Trade Penalties on Debt Defaults

Abstract

This study investigates the association between trade credits and imports of developing countries. Made available by its creditors, the main function of trade credits is to facilitate cross-border transactions of goods and services. This study finds that the reliance of imports on trade credits varies across regions and income: towards the end of the 1990s, the trade credits to imports ratio ranged from 0.20 for East Asia & the Pacific to 0.87 for Africa, and from 0.24 for high-income countries to 0.79 for low-income countries. Applying panel and cross-country estimation, we find that past trade credits help predict current imports, but past imports do not alter the future path of trade credits. Further, the positive association between trade credits and imports is larger for countries more dependent upon trade credits. The findings support the notion that countries make debt repayments to avoid any potential disruption on the line of trade credits. We also find that the trade credits penalty could materialize within less than two quarters.     

Will America create a Cold War with China

ABSTRACT

American policy towards China is now up for grabs, with hardliners and soft-liners battling for the upper hand. The hardliners view China as an existential threat to American security and interests. The soft-liners regard China as a powerful counterpart, on occasion friend, competitor, or adversary, but not an existential threat. In my view, the hardline approach – to be pursued through protectionist trade policies and aggressive technology policies — would prove disastrous, weakening the world economy and creating a self-fulfilling grave risk of future conflict.     

The Role of the Business Cycle in Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Finland

In this paper we investigate whether exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) responds nonlinearly to economic activity along the business cycle. Using quarterly data spanning the period 1975:1 to 2011:1, we explore the existence of nonlinearities in ERPT to CPI inflation for the Finnish economy. Within a logistic smooth transition framework, our investigations reveal a strong regime-dependence of pass-through, depending positively on economic activity. Besides, point estimates indicate that the long-run pass-through coefficient is equal to 0.15 % (weakly significant) when GDP growth is below a threshold of 3 %. However, when the Finnish economy’s growth rate speeds up—above the threshold of 3 %—ERPT elasticity increases to 0.47 %. These results provide some useful guidance on how policymakers should act over different phases of the business cycle. More specifically, monetary policy should factor in the nonlinear mechanism of ERPT over the business cycle in order to prevent exchange rate movements from fueling a continuous inflationary process.

     

试析人民币对外升值与对内贬值并存

Since 2002, RMB has shown a phenomenon which is the co-existence of the external appreciation and the domestic inflation. This new monetary phenomenon has been strengthened in the context that US dollar depreciates internationally and that domestic economy is overwhelmed with excessive liquidities. The new monetary phenomenon is the reflection of the real economy that continuing trade surplus, triggered robustly by the export-driven economy, which brings a huge amount of foreign exchange reserve and accelerates sequentially the expansion of domestic money supply. Furthermore, a refrained appreciation of RMB tends to deteriorate the domestic inflation, which is not simply a traditional concept of CPI but a broad inflation parameter including a variety of asset prices. It is sure that the new phenomenon is becoming a new challenge to the macroeconomic equilibrium as well as the decision maker of monetary policy. __________ Translated from Jingji yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2007, (9): 32–48     

Greece’s Potential Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Approach

This paper attempts to access whether Greece’s low openness is a reflection of its low trade integration primarily as a result of the country’s relatively poor goods export performance. The analysis estimates potential trade flows for Greece through a gravity model using a panel of cross-country data, which cover bilateral trade flows concerning the EU member states. These flows are then derived by applying the estimated parameters to the Greek economy. The results show that actual Greek exports fall short of potential ones, while the opposite is true with respect to imports. This becomes more profound when the extent of intra-industry trade is included in the analysis. The findings for the Greek exports differ considerably from the corresponding ones for Portugal, a country with similar characteristics, manifesting the limited convergence of Greece’s trade patterns towards the EU average as well as its unique geographical location relatively to the other EU countries.

Gender Effects of Trade Openness in Sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT

More than thirty years into the modern era of globalization, scholars are now in a position to evaluate the distributive effects of the policy shifts that have led to greater economic integration. One region of the world for which little robust empirical evidence exists on gendered employment effects is Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To identify whether there is an impact of economic and trade structure on women's relative access to work, this contribution empirically explores these issues for thirty-eight SSA countries, and for two subgroups. Panel data for the period 1991–2010 is examined using fixed effects, random effects and two-stage least-squares estimation techniques. Findings suggest that trade liberalization has gendered employment effects, with the direction depending on the structure of the economy. However, the more robust finding is that a country's infrastructure has played a determining role in gendered labor market outcomes in SSA since the early 1990s.     

The Local Economy Movement: An Alternative to Neoliberalism?

The economic turmoil of the last 2 years has shown that hyper-globalized capitalism is inherently crisis prone, and that it has been unable to create sustainable prosperity. Unfortunately, the left has failed to convincingly refute Margaret Thatcher’s assertion that “there is no alternative.” There is, however, a growing social movement that aims to promote small, locally-scaled enterprises. This essay argues that the local economy movement can potentially provide a unifying principle for a new progressive agenda. However, localizers must take seriously the possible loss of gains from trade. In addition, it is important to resist a naive localism that romanticizes the local while ignoring action at other scales.     

Heterogeneous firms,trade liberalization and agglomeration

Abstract In this study, we develop an economic model to examine agglomeration of heterogeneous firms following trade liberalization. In a closed economy, we show that high‐productivity firms are more likely to agglomerate because they benefit more from agglomeration than their low‐productivity counterparts. However, trade liberalization, especially with a high‐productivity partner, favours partial agglomeration; that is, low‐productivity firms relocate away from the region where high‐productivity firms agglomerate. Consequently, the welfare gap between the domestic regions of an economy narrows following trade liberalization. The latter result suggests that trade liberalization promotes regional economic development.