国际干散货航运市场发展趋势研究——基于主变量-自回归模型的分析

文章建立基于主变量分析法为特征的波罗的海干散货指数(Baldic Dry Index,BDI)自回归模型,并通过寻找各同期主要变量之间及序列前后期主要变量间的回归关系,建立联立方程模型以推演国际干散货航运市场供需变化及BDI指数发展走势.同时通过观察当前市场存量运力的船龄与载重吨分布,对更长期的市场发展趋势作出方向性判断.研究发现:2020年已轻微失衡的供需基本面给后续几年的市场发展带来压力,而在2022年左右将逐步进入缓慢发展周期.直至2030-2035年,预计会有总计超过2.5亿载重吨的海岬型及巴拿马型老旧运力集中拆解,供需结构得到改善而迎来下一个繁荣周期.     

2019年水路运输市场发展状况及2020年市场展望

2020年3月6日,交通运输部发布2019年水路运输市场发展情况和2020年市场展望,全文如下:一、2019年水路运输市场发展情况(一)国内沿海航运市场总体平稳1.干散货运输市场:市场供需矛盾持续,新增运力消化缓慢。2019年,全球经济增速放缓,不稳定、不确定因素增多,国内经济下行压力较大,对大宗散货运输需求增速下降,煤炭沿海运输需求回落。     

危机影响显现相关措施发力——2009年上半年新亚欧大陆桥运营喜忧参半

全球金融危机爆发以来,我国外贸运输需求大幅下降,业务量急剧减少,物流业尤其是航运业面临前所未有的困难和挑战。据统计,自去年10月以来,国际集装箱综合运价指数累计降幅22％（其中,欧洲航线降幅高达44％）。据权威部门预测,2009年集装箱市场可能会持续下行。     

经济风暴来临 航运市场盛宴已过？

随着近期美国五大投资银行相继倒台，金融危机迅速向实体经济扩散，并席卷全球各个角落，成为自上世纪30年代全球经济大萧条以来最严重的“金融海啸”。作为世界贸易的最主要载体——全球航运市场受害程度更是灾难性的，特别是罔际干散货、集装箱运输市场深受其害。由于无货可运，有些集装箱船、干散货船已开始封船抛锚，航运公司股价纷纷跳水。往年10月份正是国际大宗货物和集装箱出货旺季。而2008年的10月改写了自2003年进入航运繁荣期来10月份运价一路上行的历史，是世界航运史上最黑暗的月份。     

华能将投资5亿进军航运业

据了解，五大发电集团之一的华能集团旗下一二级子公司，拟投资5亿元筹建航运公司从事国内运输一事，已获交通运输部审批。交运部水运司有关人士表示，该申请确已被获批，目前正在进行有关手续的办理。无论从全球集运的期租运价指数还是中国出口集装箱的运价指数来看，由于欧美消费需求短期内难以走出低谷，中国出口和集装箱吞吐量增速的继续放缓。明年集装箱市场供过于求的下行周期已经确立。     

中国航运金融衍生品研究——作用、现状分析、发展策略

航运金融衍生品是基于金融衍生品,结合航运市场特点产生的一种衍生品工具。它对于航运企业有效地借助工具,科学地防范风险以及推进上海国际金融和国际航运双中心建设都具有非常重要的意义。但是航运金融衍生品的发展现状不容乐观,存在着品种少、风险控制意识薄弱、理论研究不够等诸多方面的问题。通过详细地论述航运金融衍生品的内涵、作用以及发展现状和发展策略,希望投资者能理性投资,合理运用衍生工具规避风险、创造收益。     

我国铁路货物运价管理体制及定价策略的研究

一、问题的提出铁路货物运输在运输市场所占份额逐年下降 ,其原因是多方面的 ,然而货运价格管理体制的不合理及铁路运输企业在价格决策方面存在的问题是其中的重要原因。二、中国铁路货物运价的沿革货物运价是运输生产过程中所消耗的社会必要劳动量———运输价值的货币表观 ,是运输产品的销售价格。我国铁路货物运价管理的权限自建国以来 ,一直实行计划经济体制下高度集中统一管理 ,定价权限集中在国务院 ,直至 1998年运价管理权限才有所松动。从建国至今的 5 0多年间 ,我国铁路运价及其管理制度经历了统一运价和多次调价 ,现归纳如下 :①…     

我国开展国际多式联运的现状及对策研究

国际多式联运综合利用各种运输方式的优势，提高效率，节省成本，实现“门到门”服务。通过分析我国开展国际多武联运的现状，发现与发达国家相比，我国还存在着一定的差距，主要问题表现在：现有管理体制和运营机制有待完善；基础设施薄弱，信息技术应用落后；运价不合理；铁路运力紧张；环节多、单证多、流程复杂等方面。建议通过建立高效统一的管理和协调机制；加快基础设施建设，加强转运设施建设，推进信息化；调整各种运输方式运价；重视铁路运力等方面开展我国多武联运，推动其快速发展。     

打造大陆桥国际知名品牌

2013年,新亚欧大陆桥国际运输受铁路运价上调、阿拉山口路径调整、西伯利亚陆桥分流等不利因素的影响,新亚欧大陆桥国际过境运量仍然取得了新的突破,超过历史最好水平。这主要得益于习近平主席访问中亚时提出的“共建丝绸之路经济带”倡议,极大促进了陆桥经济带建设和陆桥运输的快速发展,以及霍尔果斯口岸运输的快捷通畅。同时,在广大陆桥运输企业的不懈努力下,也涌现出了一批陆桥运输突出贡献企业。     

集装箱运输重现火爆

2010年以来,集装箱运输市场增长迅速,目前马士基和中国远洋等航运巨头均调高了运价,主要国际航线都表现了出强劲的反弹.与此同时,波罗的海指数结束了连续35日的下跌后开始触底反弹.不过专家对此持谨慎乐观态度.     

A study of the relationships between the time charter and spot freight rates

A time charter contract is a shipping contract that allows for freight rate risk avoidance and hedging. Defining the relationship between time charter and spot freight rates will illuminate the fluctuation mechanism of the spot freight market. In this article, three types of dry bulk ships – Capsize, Panamax and Supramax – are chosen to investigate the relationship between time charter and spot freight rates and to analyse the price discovery function of time charter contracts. A vector error correction model is developed, and an impulse response function is used to analyse the influence of time charter rates on spot freight rates. Empirical studies indicate that there are two-way lead–lag relationships between the time charter and spot freight rates and that a time charter contract has a price discovery function. Smaller ship sizes and longer durations lead to a stronger price discovery function.     

国际货物运输代理业经营风险及其控制

国际货物运输代理业是国际商品流通过程的必然产物,也是国际贸易不可缺少的重要组成部分。国际货物运输代理业所面临的风险主要有货物损毁、员工或操作人员的错误或过失、对第三人责任、罚款与关税、费用等。根据风险控制理论与方法,国际货物运输代理业风险控制的方法主要有加强员工在职教育训练、签订完整的合同、明确约定标准交易条件、作出财产状况征信、投保责任险等。     

国际海运温室气体减排的效率机制与清洁发展机制的比较

国际海运温室气体减排政策正在谈判过程中,最终确定的减排机制可能对我国海运发展产生一定影响.国际海事组织推广的"技术、运营和市场"减排方式中,效率机制是重点研究的内容之一,在技术和运营方面,旨在提高船只效率的船只设计效率因子和船只能效管理计划是重点研究的内容,提高效率也是市场机制的重要组成部分.面对当前的国际海运减排形势,采取有效的应对措施才能为我国海运发展争取更多的发展空间.清洁发展机制是<京都议定书>中唯一与发展中国家相关的国际温室气体减排机制,通过几年的实施已经积累了较丰富的经验,文章将对清洁发展机制与国际海运温室气体减排的效率机制进行比较分析,研究如何利用清洁发展机制来分析我国海运行业对国际海运温室气体减排效率机制的应对思路.     

我国航空货运网络结构研究

选取国内空港130个、航线317条,国际空港72个、航线237条,从空港和航线两个角度探讨我国航空货运机场分布格局和网络结构,结果发现:华东区、华北区、中南区是航空货物的主来源地、目的地和中转地,上海、广州和深圳、北京构成我国航空货运的"三极",形成货运三角;航空货运主要分布在少数枢纽空港间的航线上,呈现集中状态,前五位航线的货运量之和为43.83万t,占27.33%;航空货运高度集中在人口100万以上的城市间,人口100万以下的城市间航空货运联系很弱,所占市场份额之和不足1%,中等城市之间、大城市与中等城市、小城市之间无直航航线联系;我国对外航空货运联系主要集中在北美、日韩、西欧和港澳地区,与东欧、中东和南亚地区的航空货运联系较弱,与非洲和拉美地区目前还没有直通航班。     

Identifying the dynamic relationship between tanker freight rates and oil prices: In the perspective of multiscale relevance

The tanker shipping market has been treated as the key extension of the world oil market and inevitably, its uncertainty is correlated to volatility of the oil market, besides supply and demand factors. Therefore, for improving operational management and budget planning decisions, it is essential to understand the inherent relevance between freight rates and crude oil prices. Taking time-dependent features into account, this paper focuses on the multiscale correlation between freight rates and oil prices. Given the complexity and mutability of tanker freight rate process, this paper first extracts the intrinsic mode functions from the original data using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition model and then reconstructs two separate composite functions: high-frequency and low-frequency components, plus the residual as the long-term trend. Secondly, correlations of the multiscale components of freight rates and oil prices are examined based on relevance structure. Empirical results show that tanker freight rates and oil prices exhibit different multiscale properties with true economic meaning and are significantly correlated in the medium and the long term when taking the relevance structure into account. These findings offer some useful information to better understand the correlations between these two markets and more importantly, propose a novel perspective to investigate the dynamic relationship between two markets.     

The trade reducing effects of restrictions on liner shipping

The costs of shipping containerized cargo on liner vessels play a pivotal role in determining a country's integration into international trade. We examine how policy governing the liner shipping sector affects maritime transport costs and seaborne trade flows. Using a novel dataset of services trade policy information, we find that restrictions, particularly on foreign investment, significantly increase maritime transport costs. The cost-inflating effect ranges from 26% to 68%, and the resultant reduction in trade flows from 48% to 77%, depending on the level of restrictiveness. We estimate the elasticity of seaborne trade flows with respect to distance to be nearly unity, and are able to disentangle the direct effect of distance from the one that is operating indirectly through higher maritime transport costs. Since the bulk of global merchandise goods trade is seaborne, the magnitude of frictions identified in this paper and their spatial distribution have ramifications for connectivity and growth.     

The China factor in recent global commodity price and shipping freight volatilities

This paper attempts an investigation of the impact of the China factor on the global commodity and ocean shipping freight volatilities in recent years. It measures China's contribution to the incremental growth in demand for selected bulk commodities and ocean shipping in the world. China's impact on price volatilities is statistically analyzed through a conventional econometric framework.     

Joint optimization of strategic fleet planning and contract analysis in tramp shipping

Maritime transportation is one of the most capital-intensive industries. Fleet planning is vital but challenging to shipowners because the industry is extremely volatile. Relatively few papers have studied strategic fleet planning in tramp shipping, which is intertwined with contract analysis and different from that in industrial or liner shipping. This article develops a mixed-integer programming model, and it is the first of its kind that jointly optimizes strategic fleet planning and the selections of long-term and spot contracts in tramp shipping. The model can be used to determine the best mix of long-term and spot contracts for a given fleet and/or to find the optimal fleet size and mix for a set of contracts. It can be used as a basis for a fleet renewal programme, informing decisions on when to sell, whether to buy old or new ships, and when to charter in or out vessels. A numerical example is given to illustrate how to use the model to evaluate different operations strategies.     

The Trade Consequences of Maritime Insecurity: Evidence from Somali Piracy

In the past decade (2000–2010), pirates from Somalia have carried out thousands of attacks on cargo ships sailing through the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, causing what others have identified as significant damage to maritime trade. In this paper, we use variations in the spread and intensity of Somali piracy to estimate its effect on the volume of international trade. By comparing trade volume changes along shipping routes located in pirate waters to those that are not, we estimate that Somali piracy reduced bulk commodities trade passing through the Gulf of Aden by 4.1% per year from 2000 to 2010. We find smaller reductions in total trade, consistent with the fact that not all goods are shipped by sea or are targets of pirate attacks. While our estimates suggest that the trade costs of piracy are much lower than what has been suggested in the existing literature, we find that they remain significant and unevenly distributed, with five countries and the EU shouldering 70% of the total costs.     

Seasonality patterns in tanker spot freight rate markets

The aim of this paper is to investigate the existence and nature of seasonality (deterministic or stochastic) in tanker freight markets and measure and compare it across sub-sectors and under different market conditions (expansionary and contractionary) for the period January 1978 to December 1996. The existence of stochastic seasonality is rejected for all freight series while results on deterministic seasonality indicate increases in rates in November and December and decreases in rates from January to April. Seasonality is found to be varying across markets depending on vessel size and market condition. Seasonality comparisons under different market conditions, an issue investigated for the first time in the econometrics literature using Markov Switching models, reveal that seasonal rate movements are more pronounced when the market is recovering compared to smaller changes when the market is falling. This is well in line with the low and high elasticity of supply expected in expansionary and contractionary periods of shipping markets. The results have implications for tactical shipping operations such as budget planning, timing of dry-docking, vessel speed adjustments and repositioning. As expected, the out-of-sample forecasting performance of these Markov Regime Switching models is lacking somewhat, a result which is thought to be a consequence of having to predict ‘states’ simultaneously with mean values.