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1.
中国的经济运行没有像奥肯定律所描述的那样:高经济增长带来失业率的大幅降低,其原因,一是中国的宏观经济政策推动了经济增长,但没有促进就业;二是我国经济转轨时期,隐性失业显性化;三是由经济增长与就业弹性的结构性差异所引起。所以,应该确立以就业优先为中心的经济发展战略,调整产业结构,大力发展第三产业和中小企业,以扩大劳动总需求,降低失业率。  相似文献   

2.
丁承学  李雪军  王洁 《当代经济》2007,(15):102-105
中国的经济运行没有像奥肯定律所描述的那样:高经济增长带来失业率的大幅降低,其原因,一是中国的宏观经济政策推动了经济增长,但没有促进就业;二是我国经济转轨时期,隐性失业显性化;三是由经济增长与就业弹性的结构性差异所引起.所以,应该确立以就业优先为中心的经济发展战略,调整产业结构,大力发展第三产业和中小企业,以扩大劳动总需求,降低失业率.  相似文献   

3.
隐性失业影响中国就业增长与经济增长的关系吗   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
以有关城乡隐性失业研究为依据,计算所得1978—2009年各种情形下中国就业弹性的取值及其变动趋势较稳健地证明了中国经济增长就业带动能力弱。隐性失业仅提高某些年份的就业弹性,不能改变中国就业增长与经济增长的长期关系。就业弹性暂时提高的原因是隐性失业劳动力真正失业后以很快的速度再就业。而经济增长就业带动能力弱的根本原因是就业基数较大的农业、国有与集体单位就业吸收能力不足,以及其他经济单位就业吸收能力下降。  相似文献   

4.
孙鸣浦 《经济研究导刊》2011,(25):140-143,149
科技进步有助于经济增长,而经济增长可带动就业增长。运用理论模型推导分析科技进步条件下经济增长对就业的效应关系。科技进步对就业的影响是错综复杂的,一方面由于引进技术使规模经济迅速扩大,增加了对劳动力的需求;另一方面科技进步使边际就业弹性下降,从而减少经济增长对劳动力需求的拉力,不可避免地带来技术性失业、结构性失业与摩擦性失业以及隐性失业的显性化等问题。  相似文献   

5.
为了促进就业增长,减缓失业对社会稳定的冲击,我国政府相继实施了再就业工程、积极的宏观经济政策、让部分劳动者提前退休、鼓励非公有制经济的发展等一系列措施。这些政策的实施,对干缓和我国就业矛盾、促进就业增长起到了积极作用。但由干经济条件的限制、政策本身的局限或者政策实施者主观方面的失误,导致政策实施过程中产生了一些负面影响。  相似文献   

6.
中心城市促进就业的策略与路径探析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
本文论述了中心城市促进就业的重大宏观政策取向。即全面认识就业形势,调整宏观经济政策目标,改善经济增长方式;调整经济结构,拓展就业空间;建设和规范灵活就业制度等。并多层次、多角度地探讨了中心城市治理失业,促进就业的基本路径和策略问题。  相似文献   

7.
胡志红  汪雷 《技术经济》2007,26(12):83-86
1998年至今我国经济呈现出GDP高速增长的态势,但是这种经济的高速增长伴随着的是宏观经济运行的两大不稳定因素,一是物价持续上涨,二是就业形势日益严峻,宏观经济呈现出菲利普斯曲线失灵的特点。本文在运用GDP增长率、失业率和通货膨胀率等相关指标来论证、描述和解析我国菲利普斯曲线失灵现象的基础上,主要对近几年我国政府在应对菲利普斯曲线失灵时所采取的相关反失业财政政策及其就业效应进行了分析,从而为我国政府今后如何继续完善和实施治理失业的财政政策起到一个抛砖引玉的作用。  相似文献   

8.
缓解劳动力就业压力是我国当前和今后一段时期面临的重大问题,也是构建社会主义和谐社会的重大课题.随着我国经济的高速增长,我国在解决劳动力就业方面取得了举世瞩目的成就,但庞大的劳动力失业数量仍居高不下.本文从经济增长与劳动力就业的基本关系出发,在分析影响我国就业弹性深层次原因的基础上,提出了协调经济增长与扩大劳动力就业之间关系的政策建议.  相似文献   

9.
一、什么是“高增长低就业之谜” 充分就业和经济增长都是宏观经济政策的基本目标。而这两者本身又是密切相关的。充分就业指劳动者都有机会以自己愿意的报酬参加生产的状态。当有劳动能力且愿意就业的劳动者找不到工作时,就出现了失业,其实质是劳动者不能与生产资料相结合、进行社会财富的创造,这显然是一种资源浪费。20世纪60年代,美国经济学家奥肯提出了失业变动与产出变动的经验关系。  相似文献   

10.
中国就业转型:从隐蔽失业、就业不足到效率型就业   总被引:67,自引:2,他引:65  
<正> 为了消除经济转型的中后期阶段宏观经济稳定增长的隐患,我们的经济政策不能将眼光仅仅停留在名义或公开的失业率变动上,而必须注重整体失业率的存在和变动。在现阶段,中国的整体失业率的绝大部分是由隐蔽失业率构成的。劳动力供给量减去名义就业量为名义或公开的失业量,而名义就业量减去有效就业量为隐蔽的失业量。显然,作为政府政策目标的就  相似文献   

11.
Abstract
This article, which explores various aspects of macroeconomic policy and employment growth, is prompted by the relative lack of attention given to these issues in the Green and White Papers on unemployment. The problem of hysteresis reinforces the generally recognised need to reduce the excessive volatility of output and employment growth in Australia. International comparisons presented in the article suggest that Australian output and employment growth have been more volatile than those of the three major OECD countries. Reduction in macroeconomic volatility requires more effective short-term demand management than we have had in the recent past, and in turn, means that we must know more about the strength and timing of the effects of major macroeconomic policy instruments on employment growth and unemployment. This article presents employment growth equations for Australia over the period 1979–93 which incorporate domestic macroeconomic policy effects as well as the influences of the international business cycle. We show that monetary and fiscal policy have had a significant impact on the evolution of employment in Australia and, in particular, that tight monetary and fiscal policy contributed substantially to the recession of 1990–92.  相似文献   

12.
After two decades of theoretical discussion and application of labour policies aimed at flexibility, ever-spreading unemployment in Europe has compelled some official institutions to admit that the 'rigidity' of the labour market does not suffice to account for the different trends in employment displayed by Europe and the United States. In this paper, we focus on the role played by differentials in income growth. After briefly reviewing the explanations of European unemployment based on labour market rigidity and their respective weaknesses, we look at the relationship between growth and employment, concluding that there are grounds for maintaining that the causes of Europe's higher unemployment reside mainly in its lower rate of growth.We therefore investigate the reasons that may be responsible for a more stringent macroeconomic constraint on European growth.We conclude that if a lack of growth is at the root of European unemployment, then merely dismantling labour market institutions, and replacing them with a more flexible system of industrial relations, will not only fail to produce the expected results but may also have negative effects, in both the social and productive structure.  相似文献   

13.
This paper considers the implications of four kinds of labour market policies for the 1980s rise in European unemployment: unemployment compensation, active labour market policies, employment protection legislation and taxation. It finds evidence that all have played a role in the determination of unemployment and discusses the mechanisms involved, the extent of the influence of each and the lessons learned from this experience. One of the main findings is that there is a trade‐off between wage inequality and unemployment. Policy has played a role in determining how a country responded to the negative macroeconomic shocks of the 1980s but policy alone cannot explain the full rise in European unemployment and North American wage inequality.  相似文献   

14.
15.
Since all macroeconomic policies are enacted within a certain set of distributive relations and institutional structures, the employment intensity of growth is likely to vary for men and women depending on the nature and context of output growth. I examine the gendered nature of this growth-employment nexus by analyzing the differential impacts that macroeconomic policies and structures have on growth’s employment intensity by gender for eighty countries in the period from 1990 to 2012. Such an understanding is of particular relevance to policymakers concerned with the linkages between growth and human development, as the question of whether the benefits of economic growth are broadly shared is one that centers on the capacity of economies to generate high-quality employment. Although education levels and non-agricultural sectors are associated with more employment intensive growth for men and women, policies supporting reductions in non-wage care work, prioritizing public expenditures on education, and promoting secondary school enrollment for girls are especially linked with growth that is more employment intensive for women. The results I obtain here illuminate broad trends through a very wide lens and should be applied in conjunction with more intimate knowledge of how cultural, technological, legal, political, and economic activities uniquely affect one another in particular countries.  相似文献   

16.
This paper examines the effect that unemployment and long-term employment relations exert on the determination of unit labour costs. The paper proceeds in three sections. Section one analyses the relationship between labour market conditions and unit labour costs by developping a simple model of a firm that relies upon dismissal threats to elicit work effort. The comparative static properties of this model suggest that a tightening of labour markets may result in an increase in unit labour costs. In addition, it is argued that the labour market disequilibrium that occurs at full employment levels of unemployment will likely result in an increase in the growth rate of unit labour costs. The second section of the paper reviews diverse theories of long-term employment relations (LTERs), each of which suggest that the presence of LTERs ought to reduce the effect that labour market conditions exert on unit labour costs. The third section of the paper presents empirical estimates of the effect unemployment and LTERs exert on unit labour costs. The central empirical findings can be briefly summarized. First, movements towards full employment increase the growth rate of wages, reduce the growth rate of labour productivity and increase the growth rate of unit labour costs. Secondly, where long-term employment relations are prevalent, the effect of unemployment on wage, labour productivity, and unit labour cost growth is diminished. The paper concludes by discussing the implications these findings have for effort regulation models and the macroeconomic foundations of microeconomic labour market structures  相似文献   

17.
This paper studies the incidence and determinants of episodes of drastic unemployment reduction, defined as swift, substantial, and sustained declines in unemployment. We identify 43 episodes over a period of nearly 3 decades in 94 rich, middle-income and transition countries. Unemployment reductions often coincide with an acceleration of growth and an improvement in macroeconomic conditions. Episodes are much more prevalent in countries with higher levels of unemployment and, given unemployment, are more likely in countries with better regulation. An efficient legal system that enforces contracts expeditiously is particularly important for reducing unemployment. The results imply that while employment is largely related to the business cycle, better regulation reduces likelihood of high unemployment and facilitates a more rapid recovery in the event unemployment builds up.  相似文献   

18.
Modern policy-makers have learned little from the Great Depression and the policy responses of the 1930s. Yet, there is a great deal to learn from the New Deal: quelling the fear and uncertainty of mass unemployment in the pragmatic, experimental process through which the tool for achieving this objective—directed government expenditure—was accepted, even though the New Deal’s public works policies and direct provision of paid employment, rather than being informed by a Keynesian theory of macroeconomic stabilization, were designed to support morale, provide relief from the suffering and uncertainty of unemployment, and serve as a bulwark against more interventionist alternatives. Countering the deep uncertainty in the real sector of the economy thus collided with Roosevelt’s commitment to rein in fiscal deficits, and the resolution of this internal conflict in favor of support for employment and incomes provides the essential, largely ignored lesson of the 1930s.  相似文献   

19.
非正规部门就业:效应与对策   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
我国当前和未来就业形势不容乐观,非正规部门就业不仅是缓解就业压力的有效途径之一,也能够促进社会经济持续稳定发展。针对非正规部门就业存在的问题,应采取鼓励非正规部门发展等措施促进非正部门就业。  相似文献   

20.
Using a flexible spatial panel VAR model for a small-scale labour market system, we investigate the dynamic interdependences between changes in the demographic structure and the labour market performance of a regional economy. With a particular focus on ageing shocks, we describe an increase in the share of elderly in regional population due to exogenous changes in the institutional context, such as pension reforms. The regional labour market implications of an ageing shock are then tested with regard to the effects on employment growth, unemployment and labour participation rate. Our results based on a sample of 71 Scandinavian regions point to negative regional labour market effects of an ageing shock implying a reduction in employment growth and a temporarily declining labour participation rate, while the unemployment rate increases. Importantly, spatial spillovers amplify these negative impacts through a marginalization of macro-regional labour markets. As a robustness check, we reverse the causal ordering and analyze the responses to a positive macroeconomic shock which initially increases employment growth. We find direct and spatially indirect adjustment patterns characterized by a reduction of the unemployment rate, an increase in the labour participation rate and a decrease in the share of elderly in the population.  相似文献   

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