Foresight with Delphi Surveys in Japan

Foresight activities are conducted in many countries, but the Japanese were the most active in this field for many years. Most of their activities are based on the Delphi methodology. They published their first Delphi study in 1971 and repeated studies every five years. There is more knowledge available on more than 30 years of foresight with the Delphi approach in Japan. This provides an excellent opportunity to examine the established foresight system with the use of some examples. The forecast of the fax machine as an example of success, and the earthquake warning as a failure are illustrated in more detail, and the question is raised why—in spite of this mixed picture—foresight with the Delphi method is regarded as useful in Japan.     

Foresight with Delphi Surveys in Japan

Foresight activities are conducted in many countries, but the Japanese were the most active in this field for many years. Most of their activities are based on the Delphi methodology. They published their first Delphi study in 1971 and repeated studies every five years. There is more knowledge available on more than 30 years of foresight with the Delphi approach in Japan. This provides an excellent opportunity to examine the established foresight system with the use of some examples. The forecast of the fax machine as an example of success, and the earthquake warning as a failure are illustrated in more detail, and the question is raised why—in spite of this mixed picture—foresight with the Delphi method is regarded as useful in Japan.     

Exploring the application of the Delphi method as a forecasting tool in Information Systems and Technologies research

The Delphi method has been used widely in clarifying decision-making based on the opinions of experts in all research areas. This study focuses on Information Systems and Information Technology (IS/IT) research area. Its aim is to explore the use of the Delphi method in topics related to IS/IT as a forecasting tool. A sizeable amount of research has been examined about IS/IT using the Delphi method. This work proposes a guideline for applying the Delphi method in IS/IT studies based on a literature review of high impact IS/IT papers that apply Delphi with a view to answering forecasting questions. This guideline defines the most relevant aspects which should be considered when applying this method. Previously, the authors conducted a literature review of 2502 articles from different research topics to obtain evidence about the diffusion of the Delphi method in IS/IT compared to other areas.     

Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences

The Delphi method is a popular technique for forecasting and an aid in decision-making based on the opinions of experts, which has been in existence for over half a century. This work evaluates its methodology and reviews its validity in the present day, especially in the area of Social Sciences. Three recent applications in this field are also explained, professional in nature, which have some characteristics that are not frequent with respect to other Delphi studies published. The main aim of two of these studies was to provide input for economic or statistical quantitative models, using the judgement of expert groups, while the third study aimed to analyse a complex social reality by means of a Policy Delphi in order to obtain reliable information before taking a policy decision. These applications highlight how this technique may be adapted to different social realities and requirements, making a positive contribution to social progress, provided it is applied with the necessary methodological rigour and with a good knowledge of the social medium in which it is being applied. Finally, there is an explanation of a number of lessons learned from the theory and aforementioned experiences, which may contribute to the successful outcome of a Delphi exercise.     

The decision Delphi

If Delphi is used as a prognostic tool in the social sciences, it runs the danger of producing a self-fulfilling prophecy. In a Delphi application conducted at the Austrian Academy of Sciences about the present situation and future developments of the scientific-technical information and documentation system in Austria, an attempt was made to apply this principle intentionally.A group of actual decision makers in this field were included in a Delphi panel and were therefore confronted with problems and possible future developments in a field which is considerably influenced by their own actions. The Delphi method was therefore used to structure the decision-making process and to help to “create” the future in reality rather than just predicting it. In this way, an attempt was made to transfer an important field of socioeconomic development from a pattern of accidental development through uncoordinated decisions toward a pattern of broad discussion among all involved social groups and thus toward goal-oriented and well-considered management.It seems that this study represents a further variant of the well-known Delphi technique, a variant which has fundamental differences from the classical and the policy Delphi. For a Delphi application of this type the expression “Decision Delphi” is suggested.     

Delphi questionnaires versus individual and group interviews: A comparison case

The article reports on a methodological investigation for different types of the communication device represented by the Delphi method. Traditionally mailed or computer-mediated questionnaires are used. The Delphi method was invented to overcome undesirable effects of group interaction while retaining the positive effects of interactive group judgments. This article supplies evidence for the opposite: the superiority of face- to-face techniques (individual and group interviews) as compared to mailed questionnaires in a three-round Policy Delphi using half-structured questionnaires. Moreover, the case study proves that they might produce different results. In a field- or quasi-experimental design the three techniques were compared for their effects. The performance of 100 panel members on a large number of quality standards in the Delphi method is described. A list of pros and cons of the three techniques in a (Policy) Delphi serves as a summary.     

Opinion convergence in location: A spatial version of the Delphi method

This paper proposes a modified version of the Delphi method, starting from the assumption that in many situations the convergence of opinions can be considered in a spatial context. The Spatial Delphi we suggest is based, like the classical Delphi, on the judgments of experts, and it is useful in the consultations for decision and/or forecast purposes, provided that they concern matters of spatial location. The basis for the questionnaire is a map, on which each expert provides, as answer(s), one or more opinion-points, i.e., locations that, according to their opinion, are best for a specific purpose. We propose a method for narrowing the area of convergence along a multi-step procedure so that the final result of the consultation is a small portion of the initial territory with respect to the initial area considered. Besides a simulation study, we report also a prototype application with a panel of twelve experts.     

The Delphi method as early warning: Linking global societal trends to future radicalization and terrorism in The Netherlands

A Delphi study was performed to answer the question: Which global societal trends relate to future radicalization and subsequent terrorism in the Netherlands? An inventory of two hundred global societal trends and a literature study of radicalization together served as briefing of the participants in the Delphi study. The first two rounds were conducted in anonymous writing. The third round was a face to face focus group meeting. In the first and second round participants scored the trends, adjusted their scores relative to others and provided arguments, and in the focus group meeting, themes were discussed in which the participants remained to have strong opposite views. This approach emphasizes divergence in opinion (‘dissensus’), as opposed to convergence (‘consensus’). Consensus seeking to us seems to be the dominant application of Delphi, but we emphasize the value of seeking dissensus. We hypothesize that in those cases where the opposite views that were discussed kept their ground, this Delphi study may have found early warnings of future radicalization.The essence of this paper is that it is possible, with limited effort, to get a handle on the complex and poorly defined subject of global societal trends influencing future radicalization. Application of the Dissensus Delphi method provided a selection of early warnings that may be looked into with future research.     

Theory and applications of the Delphi technique: A bibliography (1975–1994)

Delphi is a popular, long-range, qualitative forecasting technique that has been extensively applied to a wide variety of problems in different domains. Since the method was conceived in the early 1950s at the Rand Corporation, different variations of Delphi have evolved in an effort to meet the unique forecasting needs of different decision makers. This bibliographic study surveys the literature on the methodology and applications of Delphi over a period of two decades (1975–1994). A total of 463 papers were identified out of which 254 papers treat Delphi as a primary subject while the remaining 209 papers treat Delphi as a secondary subject. The study concludes with a brief commentary on the Delphi technique that may be useful for researchers and practitioners in qualitative forecasting.     

A two-stage technology foresight model with system dynamics simulation and its application in the Chinese ICT industry

Technology foresight is a process that identifies the critical technologies a country or industry needs to develop in order to shape a desired future. In this paper, a two-stage technology foresight approach is proposed. During the first stage, critical technologies are identified and evaluated by nationwide experts through Delphi surveys. In the second stage, a system dynamics simulation model is used to estimate how critical parameter values are likely to impact the attainment of foresight goals. A detailed illustration of this two-stage process is provided by a technology foresight case study in the Chinese information and communication technologies (ICT) industry. Because it was identified by the first-stage Delphi method as a critical technology, the diffusion of 4th generation wireless telecommunication technology (4G) was simulated, and experimentation was conducted. Suggestions are provided regarding how the Chinese information industry would need to expand the IP network infrastructure in order to support technology foresight goals under different scenarios.     

Future prospects of alternative agro-based bioenergy use in Finland—Constructing scenarios with quantitative and qualitative Delphi data

In this paper, the potential of bioenergy production in agriculture (preferred and probable futures) is scrutinised using the Delphi method. We present a case of northern possibilities to utilise renewable energy sources within agriculture in a form of alternative bioenergy scenarios. Altogether 20 experts participated in the Delphi process which outlines the future of bioenergy production in Finland. The first round of the Delphi study was carried out by semi-structured interviews and the second feedback round by means of a mail questionnaire. Background information of key variables was presented to the panellists who responded with their views on developments between 2004 and 2025. Alternative scenarios were then constructed from these dimensions with cluster analysis in line with the Disaggregative Policy Delphi (DPD) approach. Quantitative statements were complemented with the experts' argumentation. Five scenarios were constructed: 1) Renewable prosperity, 2) Incremental change, 3) Vision of sun, wind and wood, 4) Let's burn it all, and 5) Flood of waterpower. After the Delphi rounds, a dialogue seminar for the agri-technology experts and policy-makers was organised. These results bring to the table an agri-food technology expert community view of the future directions for Finnish agro-bioenergy use.     

Quantifying the development of agreement among experts in Delphi studies

Delphi studies are often conducted with the aim of achieving consensus or agreement among experts. However, many Delphi studies fail to offer a concise interpretation of the meaning of consensus or agreement. Whereas several statistical operationalizations of agreement exist, hardly any of these indices is used in Delphi studies. In this study, computer simulations were used to study different indices of agreement within different Delphi scenarios. A distinction was made between the indices of consensus (Demoivre index), agreement indices (e.g., Cohen's kappa and generalizations thereof), and association indices (e.g., Cronbach's alpha, intraclass correlation coefficient). Delphi scenarios were created by varying the number of objects, the number of experts, the distribution of object ratings, and the degree to which agreement increased between subsequent rounds. Each scenario consisted of three rounds and was replicated 1000 times. The simulation study showed that in the same data, different indices suggest different levels of agreement, and also, different levels of change of agreement between rounds. In applied Delphi studies, researchers should be more transparent regarding their choice of agreement index and report the value of the chosen index within every round as to provide insight into how the suggested agreement level has developed across rounds.     

Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results

In foresight activities uncertainty is high and decision makers frequently have to rely on human judgment. Human judgment, however, is subject to numerous cognitive biases. In this paper, we study the effects of the desirability bias in foresight. We analyze data from six Delphi studies and observe that participants systematically estimate the probability of occurrence for desirable (undesirable) future projections higher (lower) than the probability for projections with neutral desirability. We also demonstrate that in the course of a multi-round Delphi process, this bias decreases but is not necessarily eliminated. Arguably, the quality of decisions based on Delphi results may be adversely affected if experts share a pronounced and common desirability for a future projection. Researchers and decision makers have to be aware of the existence and potential consequences of such a desirability bias in Delphi studies when interpreting their results and taking decisions. We propose a post-hoc procedure to identify and quantify the extent to which the desirability bias affects Delphi results. The results of this post-hoc procedure complement traditional Delphi results; they provide researchers and decision makers with information on when and to which extent results of Delphi-based foresight may be biased.     

Shang inquiry as an alternative to Delphi: Some experimental findings

A new group judgment method known as Shang is presented as an alternative to Delphi. Shang is structured to avoid Delphi problems associated with convergence pressures and response commitment while incorporating Delphi advantages. The new method is evaluated through an experiment comparing it with a control method and two Delphi techniques, one using point estimates and one using distributional estimates. Findings indicate that Shang is generally superior to Delphi in producing accurate numerical estimates from the judgments of a group of experts.     

Participants' response to the Delphi method: An attitudinal perspective

The processes involved in an individual's response to the Delphi method are conditioned by a number of psychological affects. This paper examines aspects of two of these processes: the basis for changing opinions, and the factors related to continued participation in subsequent Delphi rounds. The attitudinal perspective is shown to be promising in explaining an individual panelist's response in the Delphi method. Cognitive dissonance apparently has a significant role to play in bolstering the assimilation of nonconforming respondents. This is, however, complicated by the respondents' perception of the credibility of the feedback received. Careful choice of panels may reduce dropouts, presumably by selecting those with a high degree of ego involvement. Nonetheless, elements of cognitive dissonance apparently lead certain panelists to abandon the Delphi process. It is evident that numerous parallels exist between psychological explanations of attitude change and the behavior of Delphi panelists.     

Incorporating Delphi results in system dynamics models: A case of Indian tea industry

The results of a Delphi study on the future of the Indian tea industry are presented. Most of the information obtained for the study helps in formulating and validating a system dynamics model. The model also considers the occurrence of new events as visualized by the panelists. It is shown, however, that the policies recommended by the panelists yield poor industry behavior when Delphi-predicted new events operate in the environment. This may be due to lack of comprehension of the complexity of interaction between policies proposed and new events visualized by the panelists. On the basis of this investigation, it is proposed that Delphi and system dynamics studies should complement each other in arriving at viable policy decisions.     

Methods for analyzing data from Delphi panels: Some evidence from a forecasting study

Delphi and other methods of using expert opinion to generate forecasts can be a useful tool for planning, impact assessment, and policy analysis. Unfortunately, little is known about the accuracy of forecasts produced using these methods, so their utility is limited at present. Based on the logic of the Delphi method, I suggest that: 1) forecast accuracy should increase across rounds of a Delphi iteration, 2) there is a positive correlation between a panelist's uncertainty about a forecast and his or her shift in forecast from round to round, 3) forecasts weighted by self-reported confidence will be more accurate than unweighted forecasts, and 4) the use of robust estimates of location as summaries of expert opinion yield better forecasts than nonrobust measures. A Delphi experiment provides little support to any of these hypotheses. This finding suggests that traditional assumptions about the proper methods for analyzing a Delphi study may be inappropriate.     

The Delphi method as a ritual: Inquiring the Delphic Oracle

Is Delphi just a namesake? Or does it make sense to connect the Delphi method to the ancient Delphic Oracle? To bring some elements of response to these questions, this article will present the Delphic Oracle in the first part and its actions with its prophecy seekers and the Oracle's staff, including the Pythia. This first part will show the importance of conforming to the procedure in the revelation of the Oracle and the latter's role in policy-making. The second part of the article will compare and contrast the oracular practice in Delphi with the Delphi method, and more generally with expert-based futures methods, from the characteristics of the knowledge revealed, on the one hand, and the role of the actors in this inquiring process on the other.     

Technology Forecasting Activities in Japan

Japan started its development in science and technology later than other countries but was nevertheless quite successful. Many factors contributed to this success—and one of them was the adaptation of large foresight studies at the end of the 1960s. In Japan, the Science and Technology Agency (STA), among others, in 1971 started to conduct a large study on the future of science and technology. The Delphi method was one technique used for foresight activities. This was not considered a tool of prediction but an instrument to systematically look into the long-term future. Among the aims of this type of national activity is the identification of areas of strategic research and of generic technologies most likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Although many countries stopped their national foresight activities in the 1970s, the Japanese Delphi process continued and was applied every five years. In 1997, the sixth study was finished. Yet, Japanese technology policies are less consistent than is commonly believed and involve an assortment of policy measures and actors/agencies pragmatically devised to address diverse, ever-changing, and sometimes conflicting needs embedded in a broad range of issues. Forecasting results provide the “language” to communicate among Japanese actors in science, technology, and society.     

Directions in Delphi developments: Dissertations and their quality

The general question of whether Delphi users have learned from Delphi research of the past decade is addressed in this article. Within the wider context of Delphi expansion anddevelopment, specific attention is given to examining the nature and quality of the growing number of Delphi dissertations. Although there are some signs for encouragement, the findings from the sample of dissertationsexamined might also give cause for some concern. Findings raise continuing questions related to excellencein the execution of Delphi studies and also to the concentration of applications of the technique in certain fields. It appears that the future of Delphi could be brighter if users of the technique would be more careful in implementing “quality control.”