Welfare and Integration

This article argues that the terms‐of‐trade and volume‐of‐trade taxonomy from the theory of tariffs constitutes an attractive alternative to Viner's trade diversion and creation effects for the analysis of preferential trading arrangements. In applications of the alternative approach, the article establishes that results by Lipsey and Riezman on large versus small preunion trade flows for choice of partners are not ‘contradictory’ and that under some conditions a small country's optimal strategy is to seek membership of multiple free‐trade areas.     

Successful movies: A preliminary empirical analysis

Our findings lend further support to existing, informal evidence that the characteristics of successful films have changed over the past forty years. Moreover, they also suggest that it may well be possible to develop empirical models relating a film's attributes to the likelihood of consumer demand. Unfortunately, such analysis cannot be undertaken without access to more detailed information on the performance and features of individual movies. Given the interesting characteristics of movies as ideal examples of differentiated products and of the institutional arrangements governing their production and distribution, such increased data availability would make this an exceptionally attractive area for applied micro‐economic research.     

Reforms and Entry: Some Evidence from the Indian Manufacturing Sector

Traditional research in the context of product market entry has explored the strategic reactions of incumbent firms when threatened by the possibility of entry, and have identified industry-specific factors that affect entry rates. However, following de Soto (1989 ), there has been increasing emphasis on regulatory and institutional factors governing entry rates, especially in the context of developing countries. Using three-digit industry-level data from India, for the 1984–97 period, we examine the phenomenon of entry in the Indian context. Our empirical results suggest that during the 1980s industry-level factors largely explained variations in entry rates, but that, following the economic federalism brought about by the post-1991 reforms, variations in entry rates during the 1990s were explained largely by state-level institutional and legacy factors. Past productivity growth affects net entry rates as well.     

上市公司董事会治理与绩效倒U形曲线关系研究

董事会治理是公司治理的核心,董事会治理状况的改善对公司绩效的提高至关重要。从不同的角度对我国上市公司董事会治理状况与公司绩效之间的关系进行的实证分析表明,公司治理绩效与董事会治理水平之间呈现一种倒U形曲线关系。该结论的政策含义是,在当前董事会治理缺乏外部治理机制、大股东治理弱化、内部董事间的相互监督和经理人持股的激励效应都不强的情况下,董事会治理改革的关键是引入战略投资者,完善董事会专业委员会的制度建设,强化内部治理机制。     

Regional Integration in East Asia: Achievements and Future Prospects

Economic integration in East Asia has been largely market driven. Attempts in the late 1980s to establish an East Asian regional economic grouping failed to materialize for a number of reasons. The financial crisis in 1997–1998 has strengthened the realization of regional countries that they need to have some self‐help mechanisms to overcome that crisis and to prevent future crises. This led to the development of several functional integration programs, including the network of bilateral swap arrangements known as the Chiang Mai Initiative. However, progress remains slow. The question that has arisen is how far these efforts need to be supported by institutional integration. Should the ASEAN Plus Three, the main regional cooperation process in East Asia involving the 10 South‐East Asian countries plus China, Japan, and South Korea, be deepened institutionally? Meanwhile, the region has seen the establishment of a new process, the East Asia Summit, involving the above 13 countries plus Australia, India, and New Zealand. How will these different arrangements contribute to East Asia's economic dynamism and prosperity as well as peace and political stability?     

Regulating Exclusion from Financial Markets

We study optimal enforcement in credit markets in which the only threat facing a defaulting borrower is restricted access to financial markets. We solve for the optimal level of exclusion, and link it to observed institutional arrangements. Regulation in this environment must accomplish two objectives. First, it must prevent borrowers from defaulting on one bank and transferring their resources to another bank. Second, and less obviously, it must give banks the incentive to make sizeable loans, and to honour their promises of future credit. We establish that the optimal regulation resembles observed laws governing default on debt. Moreover, if debtors have the right to a "fresh start" after bankruptcy then this must be balanced by enforceable provisions against fraudulent conveyance. Our optimal regulation is robust, in that it can be implemented in a way that does not require the regulator to have information about either the borrower or lender. Our results isolate the way in which specific institutions surrounding bankruptcy–namely rules governing asset garnishment and fraudulent conveyances–support loan markets in which borrowers have no collateral.     

Wage setting in the Colombian manufacturing industry

We show that wage setting in the Colombian manufacturing industry is not fundamentally driven by labour productivity in contrast to the standard theoretical prediction. On the contrary, internal institutional arrangements – payroll taxation, the minimum wage or the price wedge between manufacturing and consumption prices – together with a higher exposure to international trade – connected to the increasing globalization of the Colombian economy – appear as the crucial drivers. These findings lead us to question the political strategy followed to attain cost competitiveness in a context of growing exposure to international trade. Implementation of a true wage bargaining system is suggested as a critical policy target to prevent the disruptive economic consequences of the current wage‐setting mechanism and help rebalance the trade deficit.     

新能源汽车产业化的制度安排及有效性分析

“十二五”规划纲要提出要培育和发展战略性新兴产业,而作为其中之一的新能源汽车,尽管在这几年得到了中央和地方政府的大力支持,但是新能源汽车的产业化进程并不尽如人意。通过对我国新能源汽车产业制度有效性的分析,得出现行的制度安排不利于新能源汽车产业化的结论,然后分析了在新能源汽车产业发展初始阶段,制度创新是如何影响新能源汽车产业化的。最后,分析了政府在促进新兴产业发展中的作用,并结合我国实际,提出了推进新能源汽车产业化的制度安排和政策建议。     

SELF‐REPORTED ECONOMIC CONDITION AND HOME PRODUCTION: INTRA‐HOUSEHOLD ALLOCATION IN ITALY

This paper applies a collective model of intra‐household welfare distribution using individual self‐reported data. The model accounts for household production, and self‐reported information on economic condition is used to identify the sharing rule governing the bargaining process in the family. The theoretical framework implies a broad concept of full income, which includes household production as time allocated to domestic activities. We find that self‐reported data on economic status are useful in recovering individual shares of household income and that both wages and non‐strictly‐economic individual variables play an important role in the bargaining process determining the sharing rule in Italy.     

Transboundary Pollution in the Black Sea: Comparison of Institutional Arrangements

This paper analyses the transboundary pollution between Romania and Ukraine, coastal states along the Black Sea, and studies the welfare consequences of institutional arrangements for controlling this problem. To achieve this goal, we use a dynamic and strategic framework. We compare in terms of total welfare for two countries a first-best case with three different institutional arrangements: the non-cooperative game of countries, the uniform emission policy and the constant emission policy as proposed by the Black Sea Commission. Our findings indicate that the non-cooperative game provides a better level of total welfare than the other rules.     

Financing enterprise development in sub-Saharan Africa

This paper examines some critical gaps in the financial infrastructurein sub-Saharan Africa, which have contributed to the poor performanceof productive investment by private agents. It first analysesthe performance of financial systems, encompassing both formaland informal financial sectors, in relation to the changingpolicy environment, and key features of the financial marketstructure. It then identifies those gaps in financial servicesthat have been particularly detrimental to private investment,enterprise growth and transformation. Finally, the paper considerspolicy implications drawn from East Asian experiences with respectto financial policies, institutional arrangements and marketintegration measures for financing enterprise development.     

The Treatment of Smith's Invisible Hand

Adam Smith used the metaphor of an invisible hand to represent the instincts of human nature that direct behavior. Moderated by self-control and guided by proper institutional incentives, actions grounded in instincts can be shown to generate a beneficial social order even if not intended. Smith's concept, however, has been diluted and distorted over time through extension and misuse. Common misperceptions are that Smith unconditionally endorsed laissez-faire markets, selfish individualism, and Pareto efficiency. The author draws upon recent literature to clarify Smith's meaning and to discuss ways of improving its classroom presentation. The author argues that the invisible hand operates within a variety of institutional settings and that a number of arrangements are compatible with economic progress.     

Is Tinkering with Institutional Quality a Panacea for Firm Performance? Insights from a Semiparametric Approach to Modeling Firm Performance

There is a large and growing literature on the impact of institutional quality on economic performance and the broad consensus is that “good” institutions facilitate better economic performance. The literature that provides micro‐level support for the policy discourse about institutional quality does not, however, account for significant intra‐country variation in reactions of firms to changes in business environments, even within the same industry, and it generally ignores the possibility that the impact of institutional quality on firm performance may not be neutral. In this paper, we analyze the impact of institutions on firm performance using an approach that enables us to overcome these problems with the stylized approach. Using cross‐country firm‐level data, we demonstrate that not only does the marginal impact of institutional quality vary significantly within countries, but also that the impact is economically significant only at the two extremes of the distribution. We view this as prima facie evidence that policies that tinker with institutional quality on the basis of the popular wisdom about the impact of these institutions on the average firm may not have the desired or expected impact, at least at the micro level.     

Aid,Environment and Climate Change

Aid and aid institutions constitute an important element of the global response to interlinked global developmental and environmental challenges. As such, these institutions are now being drawn into new arenas beyond the traditional focus on improving the livelihoods of poor people in low‐income countries. Development aid, by itself, cannot “save the planet.” Nevertheless, development aid and development institutions do have the potential to become important catalytic actors in achieving developmental and global environmental objectives. This requires bold reforms and political action. Without appropriate restructuring of the international institutional architecture to confront the new development context combined with the necessary complementary policy frameworks, future aid, including aid for environmental objectives, risks substantially under‐performing.     

Evaluation Bias and Incentive Structures in Bi- and Multilateral Aid Agencies

Evaluation is generally considered as an important tool to ensure the effective use of development aid, but it is itself subject to distortions. To derive institutional conditions conducive to effective evaluation, we develop a multi‐level principal‐agent model focusing on the interests of the different actors involved in the evaluation process. The model highlights two central problems: (i) the aid agencies’ conflicting objectives of transparency and self‐legitimization, and (ii) the potential collusion between the evaluator and the project manager. Evidence for the World Bank and different German donor agencies reveals concrete institutional requirements for a reduced evaluation bias and increased transparency.     

日本人力资源管理模式在中国环境下的挑战与变迁——以日本在华企业为例

为了适应来自外部劳动力市场、文化差异等方面的挑战,日本在华企业放弃了以终身雇佣、年功序列为核心的日本式人力资源管理,转向寻求一种市场导向和业绩导向的人力资源管理模式。日本在华企业人力资源管理模式的这种变迁为探索全球化背景下不同人力资源管理模式的融合提供了一个可供观察的视角,并且对中国企业如何构建高效能的人力资源管理系统具有一定的指导意义。     

Quantal-response equilibrium models of the ultimatum bargaining game

This paper investigates the implications of quantal response equilibrium (QRE) models [McKelvey and Palfrey, 1995, Games Econ. Behav. 10, 6–38; 1998, Exper. Econ. 1, 9–41] in the ultimatum bargaining game. It is shown that, in a normal-form QRE (NQRE), each bargainer's decision depends critically on the anticipated behavior of the other, and there is a NQRE in which the proposer makes any offer between zero and equal split as a strict best response. The application of NQRE to the experimental data [Slonim and Roth, 1998, Econometrica 66, 569–596] suggests that the history dependence observed in the experiment is a result of the strategic interactions between bargainers.     

Comments on “The Corporate State,Economic Performance,and Social Policy”

This paper provides an introduction to the Minsky-Veblen Cycles as a specific example of pluralist economic thinking in the context of the recent global economic crisis. It illustrates how pluralism can be applied to economic research. Specifically, the Minsky-Veblen Cycles combine three elements of institutional and post-Keynesian thought to explain key features of the current crisis. These elements are (1) John Maynard Keynes's postulate of effective demand, (2) Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis, and (3) Thorstein Veblen's concept of conspicuous consumption. In this paper, we have a two-fold approach to them: First, we systematize the connection between the Minsky-Veblen Cycles as a theoretical argument and the epistemological rationale of a pluralist approach to economics. Second, we contrast the implications of our approach for incorporating behavioral assumptions in macroeconomic arguments to mainstream claims for a "microfoundation" of macroeconomic theory.     

新兴市场企业追赶战略:一个文献综述

新兴市场企业通过不懈追赶实现快速崛起,引起越来越多学者的强烈关注,其追赶战略的形成在很大程度上受本国制度环境的影响。新兴市场国家处于从计划经济到市场经济的转型进程之中,在这一制度变迁背景下,企业面临诸多市场机遇,同时必须建立适应制度变化的能力以保证企业战略的动态性。从技术追赶和市场追赶两方面构建新兴市场企业追赶战略,技术追赶遵循改进型模仿、资源整合、自主创新的路径,市场追赶则主要利用成本领先和差异化优势提升市场份额,技术追赶与市场追赶相互促进,企业国际化既是追赶目的也是追赶手段。     

RIGHT ON TARGET: EXPLORING THE FACTORS LEADING TO INFLATION TARGETING ADOPTION

This paper examines which economic, fiscal, external, financial, and institutional characteristics of countries affect the likelihood that they adopt inflation targeting (IT) as their monetary policy strategy. We estimate a panel binary response model for 60 countries and two subsamples consisting of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and non‐OECD countries over the period 1985–2008. The findings suggest that past macroeconomic performance of a country, its fiscal discipline, exchange rate arrangements, as well as the structure and development of its financial system have a significant impact on the likelihood to adopt IT. However, the factors leading to IT adoption differ significantly between OECD and non‐OECD countries. (JEL E42, E52)