我国房地产投资信托发展途径选择

近几年伴随着房地产业的发展，我国房地产投资信托发展较快，但在发展过程中存在诸多问题。分析我国房地产投资信托可供选择的模式，并对完善房地产投资信托的途径进行探讨具有现实意义。     

Property Right and Organizational Characteristics of Producer‐owned Firms and Organizational Trust

Abstract ** :  We examine how organizational characteristics of producer‐owned firms are correlated with the level of perceived trust among cooperative members, using survey data from a sample of U.S. agricultural cooperatives. Our results indicate trust is correlated with property right and organizational structures previously identified in the literature as significant for cooperative performance. We find that the norm of equality and the homogeneity of member interests are key correlates of organizational trust in producer‐owned firms. We also find that some property right structures that improve organizational trust are counterproductive for member investment incentives .     

Do better institutions offset the adverse effect of a financial crisis on investment? Evidence from East Asia

We extend the neoclassical investment theory to capture the deviation of current institutional quality from its ideal level. We show that an improvement in institutions increases the speed of adjustment towards desired capital stock and the marginal product of capital and hence enhances the investment demand. Next, we apply our theoretical model to East Asia. Using Generalized Method of Moments, we estimate a dynamic panel data model to investigate the effect of alternate measures of institutional quality on investment dynamics in this region. Our findings underline the role of institutions as a deep determinant of investment. We also conclude that the East Asian countries with better institutional quality are less prone to the adverse effects of financial crises on their fixed capital formation. Our results are robust to the estimation methods and changes in institutional measures and hence might have important policy implication for policymakers and investors in East Asia.     

DOES BIG GOVERNMENT HURT GROWTH LESS IN HIGH‐TRUST COUNTRIES?

Social trust is linked to both public sector size and to economic growth, thereby helping to explain how some countries combine high taxes with high levels of economic growth. This paper examines if social trust insulates countries against the negative effects of public sector size on growth, documented in several studies. We note that the effect is theoretically ambiguous. In panel data from 66 countries across 40 years, we find no robust evidence of insulation effects: when excluding countries with uncertain trust scores, our results suggest that big government hurts growth also in high‐trust countries, and that the mechanism is by lowering private investments. (JEL H10, O11, P16, Z10)     

Does competition foster trust? The role of tournament incentives

Members of organizations are often called upon to trust others and to reciprocate trust while at the same time competing for bonuses or promotions. We suggest that competition affects trust not only within dyads including direct competitors, but also between individuals who do not compete against each other. We test this idea in a trust game where trustors and trustees are rewarded based either on their absolute performance or on how well they do relative to players from other dyads. In Experiment 1, we show that competition among trustors significantly increases trust. Competition among trustees decreases trustworthiness, but trustors do not anticipate this effect. In Experiment 2, we additionally show that the increase in trust under competition is caused by a combination of increased risk taking and lower sensitivity to non-financial concerns specific to trust interactions. Our results suggest that tournament incentives might have a “blinding effect” on considerations such as betrayal and inequality aversion.     

Can trust effects on development be generalized? A response by quantile

While the beneficial effects of social trust on economic performance have been largely recognized, we analyze whether these effects can be generalized for economies at different stages of economic development. Contrary to previous studies on this issue based on average effects (mostly considering ordinary least squares estimations), we follow a quantile regression approach that enables us to capture heterogeneous effects of trust for different development levels. By considering data for 80 countries, and using trust indicators from five different waves of the World Values Survey (WVS), our results by quantile indicate that trust is not relevant for the poorest economies, showing the existence of a social poverty trap. In addition, results suggest that the impact of trust on income decreases as an economy becomes richer. This would suggest not only that trust benefits cannot be generalized for all countries, as some previous studies have proposed, but also that the extent of its implications are heavily dependent on the level of development.     

外商直接投资、区域创新与城市化发展研究

基于2000—2017年省际面板数据,运用静态面板与门限面板模型,通过建立以政府干预、市场化进程为门限变量的回归模型,实证分析了外商直接投资与区域创新对我国城市化发展的影响。研究结果表明:外商直接投资、区域创新对城市化发展有积极的带动作用,同时,外商直接投资对区域创新的作用由替代效应向互补效应转变;政府干预对外商直接投资存在双重门限效应,对区域创新存在单一门限效应;市场化对外商直接投资存在单一门限效应,但对区域创新存在双重门限效应。基于以上结论,进一步提出促进城市化发展的建议。     

Do community-driven development projects enhance social capital? Evidence from the Philippines

We explore the social capital impacts of a community-driven development project in the Philippines in which communities competed for block grants for infrastructure investment. The analysis uses a unique panel data set of about 2100 households, aggregated at the village-level, collected in 66 treatment and 69 comparison communities. We provide both difference-in-differences and propensity score matching estimates. We find that the project increased participation in village assemblies and the frequency with which local officials meet with residents and had a negative impact on collective action. There is also more limited evidence of a positive impact of the project on bridging (i.e., generalized) trust and of a negative impact on group membership.     

The effects of cash flow and size on the investment decisions of ICT firms: A dynamic approach

This paper examines one of the fastest growing industries in our world today, the ICT industry. We assess the sensitivity of a firm’s investment to a set of financial determinants, by developing a flexible adjustment dynamic model. In particular, we examine the degree to which a firm’s liquidity influences firm investment and whether firm size and firm specialization have any additional implications. Moreover, the effect of the dot-com burst is also considered. For a panel of ICT and non-ICT US companies listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange, the results reveal the following: (1) all firms are sensitive to the availability of internal funds; (2) investment intensity decreases with firm size; (3) and leverage negatively affects investment for ICT firms.     

Gender differences in trust and reciprocity: evidence from a large-scale experiment with heterogeneous subjects

This article examines gender differences in an experimental trust game. Recent studies have shown that men trust more and that women are more reciprocal in laboratory experiments. Participants in these studies, however, are typically university students who may not be representative of the entire population. In this study, we use data from a large-scale experiment with heterogeneous subjects who are representative of the German population. We find that men exhibit not only more trusting behaviour, but also more reciprocating behaviour than women. Moreover, our results are indicative of age-dependent gender differences. For men, we find an inverse U-shaped relationship between age, on the one hand, and both trust and reciprocity, on the other; however, we do not find age effects for women.     

Trust, Reciprocity, and Social History: A Re-examination

Berg et al. (Games and Economic Behavior, 10, pp. 122–142, 1995) study trust and reciprocity in an investment setting. They find significant amounts of trust and reciprocity and conclude that trust is a guiding behavioral instinct (a primitive in their terminology). We modify the way information is presented to participants and, through a questionnaire, prompt strategic reasoning. To our surprise, none of our various treatments led to a reduction in the amount invested. Previously reported experimental results to the contrary did not survive replication. Our results suggest that those by Berg, Dickhaut, and McCabe are rather robust to changes in information presentation and strategic reasoning prompts. We discuss the implications of these findings.     

Firms’ investment decisions in response to demand and price uncertainty

We investigate the effect of demand and price uncertainty on firms’ planned and realized investment from a panel of manufacturing firms. Uncertainty measures are derived from firms’ own expectations about demand and prices and firm's sales. We find that demand uncertainty at the time of planning depresses planned and subsequent realized investment. Firms do not revise their plans due to demand uncertainty at the time of spending, suggesting that reducing demand uncertainty will only have lagged effects on investment. We do not find any effect of price uncertainty. Our results are consistent with the behaviour of monopolistic firms with irreversible capital.     

Efficiency and formation of expectations: evidence from the European investment survey

The European Commission conducts an annual survey regarding planned and realized business fixed investment across various manufacturing sectors in Euroland. In this study we investigate the predictive content of survey-based expectations on investment. In addition, we empirically test the rationality of respondents both in a time series as well as in a panel context. According to our results, based on pooling the data, efficiency is rejected since expectations are biased predictors of actual outcomes. Furthermore, expectations revisions are found to be correlated with components of the information set known at the time of decision making. Finally, our results qualify regressive expectations as the mechanism that more adequately describes the formation of expectations.     

信托对产业发展支持的有效性研究

信托与产业发展之间存在一种良性互动关系,信托对产业发展的支持可以从它的投资领域、投资方式、资金投向、期限特征等中看出。信托的可持续发展与产业发展息息相关,信托是否有效支持产业发展需要有一个评价标准进行评判。依据金融与经济相互关系的原理以及金融效率评价标准的相关理论,创值率可以作为衡量信托对产业发展支持有效度的评价标准。但统计误差、各地区经济环境差异、信息不对称等因素有可能会影响评价结果的可信度。因此,必须高度重视信托资金的合理投向、高度关注信托项目统计信息的质量和信息传递渠道的建设。     

Macroeconomic effects of government spending in China

Government spending plays an important role in determining economic performances in China. Its macroeconomic effects are analysed in this paper. We show that government spending in China Granger‐causes output, consumption and investment booms as well as inflation, and has a multiplier larger than 1. The large multiplier effects are found not only in aggregated time‐series data but also in panel data at the provincial level. We also provide a theoretical model and Monte Carlo analysis to rationalize our empirical findings. Our theoretical and Monte Carlo analyses support the large multiplier found in China but also suggest that government spending is not necessarily a free lunch in spite of the large multiplier effects.     

State investment tax incentives: A zero-sum game?

Over the past four decades, state investment tax incentives have proliferated. This emergence of state investment tax credits (ITC) and other investment tax incentives raises two important questions: 1) Are these tax incentives effective in achieving their stated objective, to increase investment within the state?; 2) To the extent these incentives raise investment within the state, how much of this increase is due to investment drawn away from other states?To begin to answer these questions, we construct a detailed panel dataset for 48 states for 20+ years. The dataset contains series on output and capital, their relative prices, and establishment counts. The effects of tax variables on capital formation and establishments are measured by the Jorgensonian user cost of capital that depends in a nonlinear manner on federal and state tax variables. Cross-jurisdictional differences in state investment tax credits and state corporate tax rates entering the user cost, combined with a panel that is long in the time dimension, are key to identifying the effectiveness of state investment incentives.Two models are estimated. The Capital Demand Model is motivated by the first-order condition for a profit-maximizing firm and relates at the state level the capital/output ratio to the relative user cost of capital. The Twin-Counties Model exploits both the spatial breaks (“discontinuities”) in tax policy at state borders and our panel dataset to relate at the county level the relative user cost to the location of manufacturing establishments. Using the Capital Demand Model, we find that own-state capital formation is substantially increased by tax-induced reductions in the own-state price of capital and, more interestingly, substantially decreased by tax-induced reductions in the price of capital in competitive-states. Similarly, using our Twin-Counties Model, we find that county manufacturing establishment counts around state borders are higher on the side of the border with the lower price of capital, but the difference is economically small, suggesting that establishments are much less mobile than overall capital. Extensions of the Capital Demand Model also reveal that state capital tax policy appears to be a zero-sum game among the states in that an equiproportionate increase in own-state and competitive-states user costs tends to have no effect on own-state capital formation.     

Convergence patterns in financial development: evidence from club convergence

This article analyzes the degree of convergence of financial development for a panel of 50 countries. We apply the methodology of Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75:1771?C1855, 2007) to various indicators of financial development to assess the existence of convergence clubs. We consider ten alternative indicators of financial development that various researchers use to proxy for the degree of financial development in countries. Overall, the results do not support the hypothesis that all countries converge to a single equilibrium state in financial development. Nevertheless, strong evidence exists of club convergence. Countries demonstrate a high degree of convergence in the sense that in the majority of financial indexes they form only two or three convergence clubs, depending on the measure of financial development used. We also apply the Phillips and Sul method to two real variables, per capita output and fixed capital investment to GDP, and find strong evidence of five and four distinct convergence clubs, respectively. Finally, we compare the various convergence clubs associated with financial development indicators to those clubs for per capita output and fixed capital investment to GDP. We conclude that strong evidence supports the correspondence between the convergence clubs for financial development and those two real variables.     

Good and useless FDI: The growth effects of greenfield investment and mergers and acquisitions

We explore the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth, distinguishing between mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and “greenfield” investment. A simple model underlines that, unlike greenfield investment, M&As partly represent a rent accruing to previous owners, and do not necessarily contribute to expanding the host country's capital stock. Greenfield FDI should therefore have a stronger impact on growth than M&A sales. This hypothesis is supported by our empirical results that are based on a panel of up to 127 industrialized, emerging, and developing countries over 1990 to 2010.     

TRUST, INEQUALITY AND THE SIZE OF THE CO-OPERATIVE SECTOR: CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE

ABSTRACT:  We provide the first empirical evidence on the determinants of differences in the size of the cooperative sector around the world. Our key data have been recently released by the ICA and are integrated with other standard sources, such as data from the World Values surveys. In our empirical work we concentrate on the links between inequality and trust and cooperative incidence and undertake selectivity correction estimates as well as a series of robustness checks. Consistent with theory we find strong support for the proposition that trust plays a causal role in accounting for differences in co-operative incidence. Also consistent with theory, we find support (albeit much weaker) for the role of inequality. Further support for our findings flows from our estimates for conventional, listed firms, where we do not find that trust and inequality play similar roles in accounting for the variation in the incidence of large listed firms across countries.     

Firm performance and corporate finance in New Zealand

Low productivity growth in New Zealand has been a paradox. We study New Zealand firms’ profitability, in terms of profit margin and return on assets (ROA), from the viewpoints of productivity enablers using firm-level panel data. We find that tangible fixed investment and a research and development (R&D) tax incentive are associated with higher profitability performance. In addition, the firm size is found to be a key determinant of profit margin. By contrast, we do not find any evidence that intangible investment can improve the profitability. The global financial crisis has not changed the leverage effect on ROA in New Zealand, while the impact of R&D became more prominent after the crisis.