Chinese firm and industry reactions to antidumping initiations and measures

China has been the subject of large numbers of both antidumping initiations and measures. This article explores the reactions of Chinese firms and industries to these actions by using dynamic system GMM estimator and industrial panel data on all Chinese firms in the industry, foreign firms operating within China and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) for aggregated firms group between 1997 and 2007. We find that antidumping actions by developed and developing countries negatively impact industrial profits and employee and firm numbers and also exports, but improve labour productivity. We also find that different kinds of firms show different responses. All firms together in an industry react to antidumping the most, and foreign and SOE firms show a much smaller response. Further, antidumping effects from different countries are different. Developed countries’ antidumping actions have more negative impact than developing countries’ actions; the effects of US actions are different from the European Union’s.     

生产者服务对制造业出口的影响——基于行业面板数据的实证分析

本文分析作为制造业中间投入的生产者服务对我国制造业出口的影响.首先,基于2000-2007年投入产出数据,我们计算了我国制造业出口的国内生产者服务增值份额,结果表明我国制造业单位产品出口中直接和间接的生产者服务投入处于波动中上升的趋势.其次,利用2004-2007年25个行业的数据,我们建立面板数据模型分析生产服务对制造业出口的影响,结果显示:生产者服务对我国制造业出口的增长起促进作用;与金融、保险等高端生产者服务相比较,制造业出口对批发零售、运输仓储等低端生产者服务依赖度较大.最后,论文基于上述研究结论给出了相应的政策建议.     

Antidumping and heterogeneous quality adjustment of multi-product firms: Evidence from Chinese exporters

This paper investigates the effect of antidumping on multi-product firms’ adjustment in export quality using highly disaggregated Chinese exports data at the firm-product-country level for the period 2000–2014. In response to antidumping, firms tend to upgrade the quality of their exports for targeted products in affected markets by product adjustment, with this effect being more pronounced for firms with ex ante higher product quality. Antidumping induces resource reallocation across firms for a product such that higher-quality firms upgrade the quality while lower-quality firms are unaffected, and reallocation across products within a firm with the quality of products of higher competency increasing more substantially under antidumping policy. Our paper contributes to our understanding on how a multi-product firm adjusts by reallocating resources across products in the face of trade policy shocks.     

影响中国电子行业出口决定因素的经验分析

本文利用中国电子工业子行业面板数据实证分析1999—2002年期间该行业出口的决定因素,特别是外商直接投资(FDI)的作用。我们发现FDI尤其是来自港澳台的FDI和规模经济对出口有正向作用。我们同时发现国有资本份额与出口负向相关,而资本密集度、研发和人力资本并不是影响中国电子行业出口的重要因素,表明中国的电子企业大多仍处于国际产品分工链的低端。本文有两个原创性贡献:第一是区分不同国别(地区)FDI对中国电子产品出口影响的差异,并发现港澳台地区资本较西方国家资本对中国电子产品出口影响更大;第二是发现劳动力成本水平因素影响FDI对出口作用程度的大小。这些结果具有重要的政策涵义。     

Sanitary and phytosanitary measures in Chinese agricultural exports: the role of trade intermediaries

We study the effect of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures on Chinese agricultural exports and the role of trade intermediaries in this process following China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. While both agricultural exports and SPS regulations have grown, the use of trade intermediaries has declined sharply. We develop a model of heterogeneous producer-level decisions about choice of export mode that is consistent with this trend. In our econometric analysis, we analyse the effects of SPS measures and trade intermediaries on Chinese fruit and vegetable exports using transaction-level customs data. In contrast to much of the literature, we find some evidence of positive relationships among SPS measures, trade intermediaries and exports.     

The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade

This paper studies the great collapse in value added trade using a structural decomposition analysis. We show that changes in vertical specialization accounted for more than 40% of the great trade collapse. Second, we find that the drop in the overall level of demand accounted for roughly a quarter of the decline in value added exports while just under one third was due to compositional changes in final demand. Finally, we demonstrate that the dichotomy between services and manufacturing sectors observed in gross exports during the great trade collapse is not apparent in value added trade data.     

THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES ON CHINA'S LABOUR-INTENSIVE MANUFACTURING EXPORTS

Abstract.  Chinese policy-makers fear that an RMB appreciation will reduce low technology exports. We investigate this issue using data on China's exports to 30 countries. We find that an appreciation of the RMB would substantially reduce China's exports of clothing, furniture and footwear. We also find that an increase in foreign income, an increase in the Chinese capital stock, and an appreciation among China's competitors would raise China's exports. Because Europe is the second leading exporter of labour-intensive manufactures behind China, these results indicate that the appreciation of the euro relative to the RMB since 2001 has crowded out European exports.     

Vertical specialization in the EU and the causality of trade

We use a novel classification scheme to identify three stages of production in the manufacturing sector: parts, components and final goods. In particular, we offer evidence on the revealed comparative advantage of the EU-27 countries concerning the three vertically separated stages of production. Moreover, we investigate whether, and if so how, imports of parts, and components can work as a predictor for the exports of final goods. We find that countries specialize at different stages of production, and that components are Granger causal for the export of final goods in many countries with a lag of 3 months.     

Dumping And Double Crossing: The (In)Effectiveness Of Cost‐Based Trade Policy Under Incomplete Information*

We argue that the rise of antidumping protection and the proliferation of voluntary export restraints (VERs) are fundamentally interrelated. We show that both can be explained by a cost‐based definition of dumping when the domestic government has incomplete information about the foreign firm's costs. Given that its costs are only imperfectly observed and knowing the government's incentives to protect, efficient foreign firms will voluntarily restrain their exports prior to the antidumping investigation. In turn, the VER distorts the government's perception of the foreign firm's efficiency and leads to undesirably high duties regardless of the foreign firm's efficiency.     

反倾销被诉贸易效应的实证分析与比较——基于1998-2008年动态面板数据模型的SYS-GMM估计

在整理全球反倾销案件的基础上,通过收集相关贸易数据,利用1998-2008年被诉反倾销案件为样本建立动态面板数据模型,实证分析了12个主要国家和地区被诉反倾销的贸易破坏效应和贸易转移效应,通过SYS-GMM估计进行回归估计得到稳健性结果。实证结果表明,反倾销措施对贸易额和出口市场份额的影响远大于关税措施的影响,成为多数国家限制进口、保护本国国内产业的主要贸易政策。反倾销对中国、日本、中国台湾和俄罗斯的负面影响较大。最后考察反倾销对产业竞争力的影响发现,反倾销申诉和反倾销措施对申诉方的产业竞争力有显著的提升作用,并且反倾销措施的影响远大于反倾销申诉的影响。     

Trade liberalization, antidumping, and safeguards: Evidence from India's tariff reform

This paper is the first to use product-level data to examine empirically whether countries use antidumping and safeguard exceptions to unwind commitments to lower tariffs in the face of domestic political-economic pressure. We focus on the case of India, a country that underwent a major exogenous tariff reform program in the early 1990s and subsequently initiated substantial use of safeguard and antidumping import restrictions. We first estimate structural determinants of India's import protection using the Grossman and Helpman (1994) model and provide evidence from its pre-reform tariff data of 1990 that is consistent with the theory. We then re-estimate the model on the Indian tariff data after the trade liberalization is complete and find that the model no longer fits, a result consistent with theory and evidence provided in other settings that India's 1991-1992 IMF arrangement can be interpreted as resulting in an exogenous shock to India's tariff policy. However, when we re-estimate the model on data from 2000-2002 that more completely reflects India's cross-product variation in import protection by including both its post-reform tariffs and its additional non-tariff barriers of antidumping and safeguard import protection, the significance of the Grossman and Helpman model determinant estimates is restored. We interpret these combined results as evidence that India unwound its commitment to reduce tariffs through use of antidumping and safeguard protection in the face of political-economic pressure. The estimates are also economically important and provide one explanation for separate results in the literature that the magnitude of import reduction associated with India's use of antidumping is similar to the initial import expansion associated with its tariff reform. Finally, we interpret the implications of our results for the burgeoning research literature examining the effects of liberalization on India's micro-level development.     

China's export growth and the China safeguard: threats to the world trading system?

Abstract Is there evidence from China's pre‐WTO accession period that newly imposed U.S. or EU import restrictions deflect Chinese exports to third markets? We examine this question by drawing on a newly constructed data set of U.S. and EU product‐level import restrictions on Chinese trade imposed between 1992 and 2001, and we estimate their impact on Chinese exports to alternative markets. We find no systematic evidence that the import restrictions imposed during this period resulted in Chinese exports surging to third markets. To the contrary, there is weak evidence of a chilling effect on China's exports to third markets.     

Exchange rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in Greek exports to the Euro Area,the US and Turkey: sectoral evidence

In this paper a non-linear model is applied, where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction, which we call “play” area—analogous to mechanical play. We implement an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on Greek exports is estimated based on the period from 1995Q1 to 2014Q4. Looking at some of the main export partners of Greece, the euro area, Turkey and the US, and some of its most important tradeable sectors we identify significant hysteretic effects for a part of the Greek exports. We find that Greek export activity is characterized by “bands of inaction” with respect to changes in the real exchange rate and calculate the further real depreciation needed to trigger a spurt in Greek exports. To check for robustness we (a) estimate Greek export equations for a limited sample excluding the recent financial crisis, (b) use export weight instead of deflated nominal exports as the dependent variable, (c) employ a political uncertainty variable as a determinant of the width of the area of weak reaction. Overall, we find that those specifications which take uncertainty into account display the best goodness of fit. In other words: the option value of waiting dominates the real exchange rate effect on Greek exports.     

Symbiotic Production and Optimal Export Policy

This paper constructs a two‐country trade model to examine the optimal policies relating to the export of final and intermediate products under Cournot as well as Bertrand competition when firms engage in symbiotic production internationally. The paper shows that given linear demand for the final product, the optimal export policies are to tax the exports of both the final and intermediate goods under symbiotic production, regardless of whether firms engage in Cournot or Bertrand competition in the final good market, which is contrary to the conventional wisdom.     

The Impact of Chinese Exports on Global Import Prices*

This paper evaluates the evidence bearing on the question of whether China's buoyant export growth has led to significant changes in the import prices, and thus inflation performance, of its trading partners. This evidence suggests that the impact of Chinese exports on global import prices has been, while non‐ negligible, fairly modest. We identify a statistically significant effect of US imports from China on US import prices, but given the size of this effect and the relatively low share of imports in US GDP, the ultimate impact on US consumer prices has likely been quite small. Moreover, imports from China had little apparent effect on US producer prices. Finally, using a multi‐country database of trade transactions, we estimate that, since 1993, Chinese exports lowered annual import inflation in a large set of economies by 0.25 percentage point or less on average.     

Learning and the time interdependence of Costa Rican exports

Exports may enhance learning through production-induced learning by doing, learning to export by doing, and flows of information from customers. We provide evidence on the learning effects of export destination for Costa Rica for 1955 through 1980. We examine Granger-causality results and export trends to determine relationships between exports to the Central American Common Market (CACM), the rest of the South, and the North. Increasing exports to the CACM appear to promote learning in machinery, leather, and intermediate manufactures. We also find that the CACM redirects some exports away from Northern markets, probably with damaging consequences.     

The new goods margin in new markets

We analyze the role of the new goods margin in the Baltic countries’ exports and imports growth during the 1995–2008 period. Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013), we define the set of least-traded goods as those that account for the lowest 10% of total exports and imports in 1995, and then trace its growth in several markets including the Baltics’ main trade partners, the European Union and Russia. We find that, on average, by 2008 least-traded goods accounted for nearly 50% of total Baltic exports to their main trade partners. Moreover, we find that increases in the share of least-traded exports coincided with the timing of the trade liberalization reforms implemented by the Baltic countries. Least-traded imports also grew at robust rates, but their growth was lower than that of exports, accounting for slightly less than a quarter of total imports, that is, about half of the exports value. Moreover, we find that the shares of least-traded imports from the EU 15 and from Russia started diverging around the time the Baltic countries joined the EU, with the EU 15 share increasing and the Russian one declining. We also find that the Baltics’ share of least-traded exports outpaced that of other economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, exports of new goods from the Baltic countries suffered noticeably during the Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis ended, the restart in new goods exports growth displayed mixed patterns.     

Does antidumping cause investment and R&D?: Evidence from Turkey

This article employs Turkish firm-level data and analyses the effect of antidumping protection on capital spending and Research and Development (R&D). Using matching techniques and alternative control groups and applying difference-in-difference methodology, we find that antidumping duties imposed by the Turkish government significantly increase fixed investment and R&D expenditures. We also show that antidumping duties are effective in terms of increasing the domestic sales. To our knowledge, our article represents the first attempt to analyse the effect of antidumping policy in Turkey, a very active user of temporary trade barriers, using firm-level data.     

The Time-varying Impact of China’s Economic Rebalancing on Korea’s Exports to China

While China seeks to shift from exports and investment to a consumption-oriented economy and to increase the self-sufficiency rate of exports, this study uses time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) to examine the impact of economic structural changes in China on Korea’s exports to China over time. The study results suggest that the impact of China’s export shocks on Korea’s exports has weakened, which demonstrates the slowdown in regional production fragmentation, considering that Korea’s export goods are mainly intermediate goods. Instead, the influence of China’s domestic demand shock on Korea’s exports has expanded, which implies that China has increasingly become the final destination of intermediate goods made in Korea.     

THE IMPACT OF TRADE AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT POLICIES ON TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION AND SOURCING OF CHINESE FIRMS

How do trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) policies impact the decisions of firms in technology adoption (process vs. product innovations) and sourcing (internal vs. external and foreign vs. domestic)? We use a sample of Chinese firms to address this question. China's trade and FDI policies lead to different forms of internationalization: ordinary exports, processing exports, majority FDI, and minority FDI. We find that both exporting and FDI stimulate process innovation; ordinary exports, processing exports, and FDI have strong, weak, and no effects on stimulating product innovation, respectively. Exporting firms source technologies both internally through R&D and externally from foreign and domestic sources. FDI firms have a lower tendency of internal technology development and domestic technology sourcing, but a much higher tendency of foreign technology sourcing than exporting firms. (JEL F13, F23, O32)