中国资本市场股权溢价的实证分析

基于我国资本市场的历史数据进行实证分析,验证了我国A股市场存在股权溢价且呈现高波动性.并采用行为金融学理论从投资主体、市场、制度三方面分析了我国股权溢价及其高波动性的原因.     

基于中国股票市场的基本面指数投资策略实证研究

传统的市值加权指数可能会过多持有被高估股票、减少持有被低估股票,不是均值方差最优组合。基本面指数以基本面指标据进行样本股的选样和加权计算,打破样本股价格与其权重之间的联系从而避免这种缺点。利用Arnott等学者的方法构建在中国股票市场上的基本面指数,发现基本面指数在中国市场的表现不如市值加权指数。     

中国创业板市场IPO抑价实证研究

本文采用逐步回归和多元回归的方法,实证检验了中国创业板市场IPO抑价现象,分析了影响我国创业板市场IPO抑价的相关因素,并根据实证检验结果,提出降低创业板市场IPO抑价率及提高创业板市场定价效率的相关政策建议.     

中国创业板市场IPO抑价实证研究

本文采用逐步回归和多元回归的方法,实证检验了中国创业板市场IPO抑价现象,分析了影响我国创业板市场IPO抑价的相关因素,并根据实证检验结果,提出降低创业板市场IPO抑价率及提高创业板市场定价效率的相关政策建议。     

中国创业板市场IPO抑价及其影响因素的实证研究

IPO抑价现象在各国证券市场普遍存在,中国创业板市场相对于主板市场而言具有更强的投机性,风险也相对更大。因此,研究创业板市场的IPO抑价现象,就具有了很强的理论和现实意义。从IPO抑价理论入手,综合利用实证分析的方法,针对中国创业板市场的IPO抑价水平以及影响因素进行分析研究,并就如何促进中国创业板市场的健康发展提出相关的政策建议。     

中国股票市场外国投资者所有权投资的限制与市场分割

本文针对中国股票市场1992-1997年度的A股和B股的市场分割问题进行研究,并讨论了B股大幅度折价的原因.研究发现A、B股价差的主要原因是B股市场缺乏流动性.B股相对缺乏流动性导致了投资者较高的期望收益,因此定价较低,以补偿投资者增加的交易成本.但是,在这两类股票中,B股价格比A股价格更接近于市场基本面.因此,本文认为,1992-1997年度的中国股票市场,实际上是A股溢价,而不是B股折价.     

灾难风险与资产定价——一个拓展的长期风险模型

本文首先在理论上提出了带有灾难冲击风险的长期风险模型,得到了股权溢价的解析表达式。根据解析表达式,股权溢价由四部分构成：短期风险溢价、长期风险溢价、波动性溢价和灾难风险溢价,且灾难风险溢价通过灾难风险的各阶矩(矩生成函数)对股权溢价起作用。其次,对模型进行了校准并通过数值模拟与实际数据进行了比较,发现本文的模型可以较好地解释股权溢价之谜。研究发现引入灾难风险的长期风险模型无论在价格股利比例预测消费增长率和股利增长率方面,还是在价格股利比例预测消费波动性和超额回报率波动性方面都与现实较为吻合。此外,模型还能较好地解释我国股票市场过度投机、波动率较大等典型特征。     

股权规模、风险溢价与投资者理性--基于中国股市的经验研究

基于从市场模型出发,来研究风险溢价在中国是否存在,分析风险系数β值及规模因素对预测股票收益的作用,以及通过数据分段来分析我国股市处于不同运行周期情况下的投资者行为特征,发现:(1)在较为合理的估算方法下,β值对股票收益的作用得到很大的提升,而这一结论与国内一些学者研究的结论有着明显差异。(2)在两个观测期内都没有捕获到正风险溢价存在的证据,即在第一个观测期内存在弱小盘股效应,在第二个观测期内则发现较明显的大盘股效应和负风险溢价现象。研究结果表明,当股市处于较为正常的运行周期时,投资者呈现出较高的理性特征;而当股市处于长期熊市期间时,我国投资者呈现出明显的非理性特征。     

中国A股市场规模溢价与价值溢价成因研究

金融理论界对规模溢价与价值溢价现象的困惑与争论由来已久,对上述现象的理论解释可以归纳为传统范式与行为范式。前者认为,溢价是对高风险的补偿,后者则认为,溢价源是对过度反应的纠正。为了弄清溢价形成的真正原因,本文对1993——2003年中国深沪A股进行了实证分析,研究发现：中国A股市场存在规模与价值溢价现象,但上述两种范式的解释均存在一定的局限性。本文借鉴展望理论的参照依赖原理,提出相对盈利的概念,并对溢价现象予以新的解释。     

基于风险补偿的企业债券定价研究

在有效市场中,企业债券的超额收益是对其所面临的风险可能导致损失的补偿,企业债券的理论价格是表征资金时间价值的无风险收益率和风险溢价的函数。根据市场无风险收益率、违约风险溢价,以及流动性风险溢价所遵循的随机波动方程,并考虑债券的违约回收率,本文构建了基于风险补偿的企业债券理论价格模型,并对2006年第3季度至2010年第1季度中国债券市场中32只企业债券的实际价格和理论价格进行了实证检验。研究发现,绝大多数企业债券的实际价格与理论价格差异不大,但少数中长期债券的实际价格系统性地低于理论价格;公用事业类企业债券的价格对市场信息不够敏感;我国债券市场上存在较多的套利资金。最后从所做的研究中,得出了完善我国债券市场的一些启示。     

并购的长期财富效应--经验分析结果与协同效应解释

文章分析了并购对目标公司的长期财富效应,认为目标公司在并购后5年获得了巨大的超额收益.并购溢价可以解释目标公司的长期财富效应,并购溢价越高,并购产生的协同效应越大,目标公司的长期财富效应也越大.另外,并购后目标公司在组织形式和产权性质上的变化也会提高公司治理效率,从而增加目标公司的长期财富效应.     

The conditional influence of term spread and pattern changes on future equity returns

We extend previous research examining the relation between interest rates and equity returns using a multivariate analysis of covariance model with a dynamic yield curve and conditioned term spread. We find yield pattern changes predict economic equity returns; that the long end-of-yield curve is a strong determinant factor; and, in contrast to previous research, we find no relation between a decrease in the short rate and equity returns. However, the conditional term spread captures a significant positive return indicating that the degree of decline in the short rate relative to the long rate is of more importance than the term spread alone.     

Do financial distress and liquidity crises affect value and size premiums?

This study investigates the impact of liquidity crises on the relationship between stock (value and size) premiums and default risk in the US market. It first examines whether financial distress can explain value and size premiums, and then, subsequently, aims to determine whether liquidity crises increase the risk of value and size premium investment strategies. The study employs a time-varying approach and a sample of US stock returns for the period between January 1982 and March 2011, a period which includes the current liquidity crisis, so as to examine the relationship between default risk, liquidity crises and value and size premiums. The findings indicate that the default premium has explanatory power for value and size premiums, which affect firms with different characteristics. We also find that liquidity crises may actually increase the risks related to size and value premium strategies.     

On the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of interest rates and country risk premiums

We examine the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates and country risk premiums for the Eurozone and six other industrial countries for 1999–2008. In so doing, we utilize comparable random walk forecasts as benchmarks. Consistent with the efficient market hypothesis, the long-term interest rate forecasts fail to outperform the random walk. Our findings on the accuracy of short-term interest rate forecasts are, however, mixed. Further results reveal that Blue Chip is more (less) accurate in predicting country risk premiums associated with short-term (long-term) interest rates. Such evidence is reasonable since the short-term country risk premiums contain only the perceived default risk, while the long-term risk premiums, in addition, can contain the perceived inflation and exchange rate differentials.     

Background risk and the demand for state-contingent claims

Summary. We consider the demand for state-contingent claims, in the presence of an independent zero-mean, non-hedgeable background risk. An agent is defined to be generalized risk averse if he/she chooses a demand function for contingent claims with a smaller slope everywhere, given a simple increase in background risk. We show that the conditions for standard risk aversion, that is positive, declining absolute risk aversion and prudence, are necessary and sufficient for generalized risk aversion.Received: 13 February 2002, Revised: 10 February 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D52, D81, G11. Correspondence to: Guenter FrankeWe are grateful to Louis Eeckhoudt, Christian Gollier, Harris Schlesinger and an unknown referee for valuable comments.     

Efficient Transfer of Aging Provisions in Private Health Insurance

In German-style private health insurance contracts, aging provisions are used to flatten premium profiles. An individual would like to change insurer if she perceives a low service quality. The first-best optimum is characterized by provision transfers upon insurer changes which are higher for high risks and may be negative for low risks. Should the actual risk status not be verifiable, provision transfers have to be uniform. Efficient transfers will equalize consumption across periods and states if high risks are deterred from switching. Otherwise, the optimum transfer balances the distortion of incentives for high-risk and low-risk individuals.     

Risk aversion and risk loving in the small: a decomposition of the multivariate risk premium

This note proposes a decomposition of the familiar scalar multivariate risk premium into components which can be easily interpreted in the context of consumer theory. The premium under consideration is the standard one used to ascertain the impact of price and income risk on consumer welfare. This proposed premium decomposition allows for a more intuitive identification of the detrimental and beneficial effects that arise from income and price risk. As an illustrative example, this decomposition is used to ascertain the welfare effects arising from the price fluctuations experienced by UK households over the period 1963–97.