Converting Forests to Farms: The Economic Benefits of Clearing Forests in Agricultural Settlements in the Amazon

Agricultural expansion into tropical forests is believed to bring local economic benefits at the expense of global environmental costs. The resulting tension is reflected in Brazilian government policy. The national agrarian reform program has settled farm families in the Amazon region since the 1970s, with the expectation that they will clear forests in order to farm the land. On the other hand, recent Brazilian policy initiatives seek to reduce deforestation to mitigate climate change. We contribute to the policy debate that surrounds these dual goals for the Amazon by estimating the marginal effects of new agricultural land on the full income and assets of farm settlers over a 13-year period from 1996 to 2009. Using micro panel data from agrarian settlements where forest was being rapidly cleared, and controlling for factors that would otherwise confound the relationship, we estimate the effect of converting forest to agriculture on total household income to estimate the opportunity cost of conserving forest. Our measure of income reflects any re-allocation of resources by utility maximizing households and any productivity effects due to loss of forest ecosystem services. The estimated effect of new agricultural land on income is positive, but small relative to the income per hectare of previously cleared land. However, we show that income increases investment in physical assets, which raises households’ income generating capacity and future accumulation of assets. Thus, while there is only a small immediate income gain from clearing more forest, the long-term effects on wealth are still substantial. This demonstrates that given the right conditions, conversion of forest to agricultural land can be an impetus for asset accumulation by smallholders. It also highlights the importance of considering the indirect and long-term welfare benefits of new agricultural land when assessing the opportunity costs of forest conservation.     

Deforestation and national accounting

We construct a first best growing economy in which land is being switched continuously from use in forestry to an alternative use. We find that implicitly for such activity to take place there must be no net loss to land owners. This implies no deduction in the national accounts for deforestation. With soil erosion on deforested land, Pigovian taxes must be levied to sustain a first best. We also observe an optimal tax on households for their implicit use of forests as oxygenation sinks.     

Ethanol Production, Food and Forests

This paper investigates the direct and indirect impacts of ethanol production on land use, deforestation and food production. A partial equilibrium model of a national economy with two sectors and two regions, one of which includes a forest, is developed. It analyses how an exogenous increase in the ethanol price affects input allocation (land and labor) between sectors (energy crop and food). The total effect of ethanol prices on food production and deforestation is decomposed into three partial effects. First, the well-documented effect of direct land competition between rival uses arises; it increases deforestation and decreases food production. Second, an indirect displacement of food production across regions, possibly provoked by the reaction of international food prices, increases deforestation and reduces the food sector’s output. Finally, labor mobility between sectors and regions tends to decrease food production but also deforestation. The total impact of ethanol production on food production is negative while there is an ambiguous impact on deforestation.     

An assessment of the influence of bioenergy and marketed land amenity values on land uses in the Midwestern US

There is substantial concern that bioenergy policies could swamp other considerations, such as environmental values, and lead to large-scale conversions of land from forest to crops. This study examines how bioenergy and marketed environmental rents for forestland potentially influence land use in the Midwestern US. We hypothesize that current land uses reflect market values for environmental benefits of forestland, so that the marketed component of the environmental value of land can be captured as the difference between Census land values and value of land as a timber asset. We use a multinomial logit model to estimate the land use shares of forests, crops and urban in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. The results show that marketed environmental rents increase forestland relative to cropland. To examine the effects of biofuels on land use, we conduct policy analysis by altering future land rents. Our baseline scenario projects that urban development uses mostly cropland, but with higher crop rents resulting from increased demand for bioenergy, there will be significant losses of forestland to urban and cropland. On the other hand, if marketed environmental rents grow while crop rents are maintained at their baseline value, urban growth will occur, primarily at the expense of cropland.     

Geographically explicit global modeling of land-use change, carbon sequestration, and biomass supply

This study aims to determine whether carbon sequestration policies could present a significant contribution to the global portfolio of climate change mitigation options. The objective is to model the effects of policies designed to induce landowners to change land use and management patterns with a view to sequester carbon or to reduce deforestation. The approach uses the spatially explicit Dynamic Integrated Model of Forestry and Alternative Land Use (DIMA) to quantify the economic potential of global forests. The model chooses which of the land-use processes (afforestation, reforestation, deforestation, or conservation and management options) would be applied in a specific location, based on land prices, cost of forest production and harvesting, site productivity, population density, and estimates of economic growth. The approach is relevant in that it (1) couples a revised and updated version of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios with the dynamic development of climate policy implications through integration with the Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE); (2) is spatially explicit on a 0.5° grid; and (3) is constrained by guaranteeing food security and land for urban development. As outputs, DIMA produces 100-year forecasts of land-use change, carbon sequestration, impacts of carbon incentives (e.g., avoided deforestation), biomass for bioenergy, and climate policy impacts. The modeling results indicate that carbon sequestration policies could contribute to a significant part of the global portfolio of efficient climate mitigation policies, dependent upon carbon prices.     

气候变暖的第一影响因素及我国的应对

全球气候变暖已是人们逐渐接受的事实,由于大气中二氧化碳等气体含量的升高引起的温室效应是导致全球气温变暖的显著原因。经过统计分析发现,大气中碳含量的增加与全球森林面积减少、化石能源燃烧增加的碳排放高度相关,但年均0.4%增速的大气中的碳含量是与按年均0.2%速度递减的全球森林面积存在显著的统计上的因果关系,乱砍滥伐、开发耕地等导致的全球森林面积的减少是大气中二氧化碳含量增加的格兰杰因果关系原因,从而构成全球变暖的第一影响因素。二氧化碳排放量的增加一直比较平稳,年增速在2.2%左右,它与大气中的碳含量的增加虽然相关,但因果关系统计上并不显著,也不是其格兰杰因果关系原因,这一结论与IPCC的报告中二氧化碳排放量是全球变暖的主要原因的结论并不完全一致。据此,我们提出中国应对全球变暖时谨防陷入"碳排放陷阱"。     

Land Use in the 21st Century: Contributing to the Global Public Good

This paper focuses on the evolution of global public goods related to the world's land resources over the course of the 21st century, their potential impacts on the world's poorest households, as well as prospects for policy interventions aimed at enhancing these outcomes. It begins with global scale projections to 2100 of land use and associated goods and services, including food, fuel, timber, greenhouse gas emissions, carbon sequestration and biodiversity. This is followed by in‐depth discussion of each of these services and the challenges of providing these public goods in sufficient quantities to advance societal welfare—especially that of the world's poorest households. The paper concludes with a discussion of policies aimed at promoting the provision of land‐based public goods and how they could be altered to be more pro‐poor. Within this context, the paper argues that access to geospatial analysis tools and information on climate, land use and tenure, poverty and environmental indicators will become increasingly valuable to both public and private decision makers.     

Long‐Run Impact of Biofuels on Food Prices

About 40 percent of US corn is now used to produce biofuels, which are used as substitutes for gasoline in transportation. In this paper, we use a Ricardian model with differential land quality to show that world food prices could rise by about 32 percent by 2022. About half of this increase is from the biofuel mandate and the rest is a result of demand‐side effects in the form of population growth and income‐induced changes in dietary preferences, from cereals to meat and dairy products. However, aggregate world carbon emissions would increase, because of significant land conversion to farming and leakage from lower oil prices.     

Is Local Food More Environmentally Friendly? The GHG Emissions Impacts of Consuming Imported versus Domestically Produced Food

With the increased interest in the ‘carbon footprint’ of global economic activities, civil society, governments and the private sector are calling into question the wisdom of transporting food products across continents instead of consuming locally produced food. While the proposition that local consumption will reduce one’s carbon footprint may seem obvious at first glance, this conclusion is not at all clear when one considers that the economic emissions intensity of food production varies widely across regions. In this paper we concentrate on the tradeoff between production and transport emissions reductions by testing the following hypothesis: Substitution of domestic for imported food will reduce the direct and indirect Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions associated with consumption. We focus on ruminant livestock since it has the highest emissions intensity across food sectors, but we also consider other food products as well, and alternately perturb the mix of domestic and imported food products by a marginal (equal) amount. We then compare the emissions associated with each of these consumption changes in order to compute a marginal emissions intensity of local food consumption, by country and product. The variations in regional ruminant emissions intensities have profound implications for the food miles debate. While shifting consumption patterns in wealthy countries from imported to domestic livestock products reduces GHG emissions associated with international trade and transport activity, we find that these transport emissions reductions are swamped by changes in global emissions due to differences in GHG emissions intensities of production. Therefore, diverting consumption to local goods only reduces global emissions when undertaken in regions with relatively low emissions intensities. For non-ruminant products, the story is more nuanced. Transport costs are more important in the case of dairy products and vegetable oils. Overall, domestic emissions intensities are the dominant part of the food miles story in about 90 % of the country/commodity cases examined here.     

The Expanding Techniques of Progress: Agricultural Biotechnology and UN-REDD+

This paper provides a comparative analysis of agricultural biotechnology and the United Nations program for reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). Despite the existing differences between the technical manipulation of biological systems and a conservation program aimed at reducing carbon and protecting forests, the two share commonalities in ideological origin, application, and values. Presented as positive developments, both seek to address large-scale issues such as global hunger and climate change, but while receiving national and international support they remain controversial issues. Both issues are critically assessed, beginning with a brief history, followed by the application of William Dugger's four invaluation processes: contamination, subordination, emulation, and mystification. This approach unravels the subtle social power of state and market forces that seek to control genetic material and forest frontiers as new outlets for growth and investment.     

National and international policies for tropical rain forest conservation—A quantitative analysis for Cameroon

This paper provides a numerical general equilibrium assessment of policies to reduce tropical deforestation in Cameroon. Market failure—mainly in the form of national and international externalities—and policy failures—such as highly distorted product markets—are identified as major sources of overexploitation. The ecological effects of deforestation control are shown to depend crucially upon its impact on land use patterns whereas its efficiency effects hinge on the manner in which a specified set-aside target is achieved. If the international community wants to ensure a higher level of protection of these forests, and to do so within a market-based system, the provision of conditional financial resources is neceassary.     

Economic cost of deforestation in semi-deciduous forests — A case of two forest districts in Ghana

The ecological, economic and socio-cultural roles of forests are under threat in Ghana due to the high rate of deforestation. Efforts are being made to combat this problem through rehabilitation measures. However, the costs of deforestation and restoration benefits are not adequately estimated. This paper fills in the gap in knowledge by providing an empirical estimation of the cost of deforestation in monetary terms. Primary data collected regarding timber, non-timber forest products and soils in semi-deciduous forests were analyzed using opportunity cost and replacement cost techniques. The results emphasize differences in the value of these forest goods and services lost annually. The largest losses were in stumpage fees, edible fruits, and avoided carbon emissions values. The results show that US$133,650,000 gross revenue, equivalent to 2.6% of the 2008 agricultural sector Gross Domestic Product, is lost annually. It can be concluded that restoring the degraded forest lands would bring benefits particularly to the local communities through increased stumpage revenues and harvest of non-timber forest products, as well as additional funds from carbon credits. It is recommended that stakeholders of forest resources are made aware of these costs in order to raise awareness of what they are losing through deforestation.     

The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry

This paper analyses the role of global land management alternatives in determining potential greenhouse gas mitigation by land-based activities in agriculture and forestry. Land-based activities are responsible for over a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet the economics of land-use decisions have not been explicitly modeled in global mitigation studies. In this paper, we develop a new, general equilibrium framework which effectively captures the opportunity costs of land-use decisions in agriculture and forestry, thereby allowing us to analyse competition for heterogeneous land types across and within sectors, as well as input substitution between land and other factors of production. When land-using sectors are confronted with a tax on greenhouse gas emissions, we find significant changes in the global pattern of comparative advantage across sectors, regions, and land types. Globally, we find that forest carbon sequestration is the dominant strategy for GHG emissions mitigation, while agricultural-related mitigation comes predominantly from reduced methane emissions in the ruminant livestock sector, followed by fertilizer and methane emissions from paddy rice. Regionally, agricultural mitigation is a larger share of total land-use emissions abatement in the USA and China, compared to the rest of the world, and, within agriculture, disproportionately from reductions in fertilizer-related emissions. The results also show how analyses that only consider regional mitigation, may bias mitigation potential by ignoring global market interactions. For example, USA-specific analyses likely over-estimate the potential for abatement in agriculture. Finally, we note that this general equilibrium framework provides the research community with a practical methodology for explicit modeling of global land competition and land-based mitigation in comprehensive assessments of greenhouse gas mitigation options.     

The short-run and long-run effects of corruption control and political stability on forest cover

This article examines how governance, particularly corruption control and political stability, affects deforestation due to agricultural land expansion. We estimate the short-run and long-run effects of corruption control and political stability on deforestation in South American and Asian countries using data from 1990 to 2003 where converting forest land into agricultural land is a significant problem. Political stability has a positive and significant effect on forest cover in the short run but an insignificant effect in the long run. In contrast, corruption control has a negative and significant effect on forest cover in the short run and the long run with a larger magnitude in the former. One possible explanation is that corruption control induces more technological productivity and, if technology and land use are complements, increases in technological development lead to agricultural land expansion.     

Profitability and social impacts of reduced impact logging in the Tapajós National Forest, Brazil — A case study

Brazil contains the world's largest tropical rainforests, most located in the Amazon River Basin. Over the last three decades, rapid growth of this region's deforested area has had negative impacts. To minimize these impacts and maintain biodiversity, the Brazilian Government has established several national forests in the Basin. The ITTO Project, a reduced impact logging (RIL) operation, was recently carried out at one of these forests: the Tapajós National Forest, also known as Flona Tapajós. This paper evaluates the Project's profitability and its effect on local residents. The Project, which ran between 1999 and 2003, was coordinated by the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA), with funding for planning and monitoring provided by the United Kingdom's Department of International Development (DFID) working through and approved by the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO). Treviso Agropecuária Ltda, a private logging company, carried out timber extraction on the Project site. Our evaluation found the ITTO Project to have been highly profitable for Treviso, even after their compliance with all Brazilian labor and environmental laws. This finding was based on field interviews and the examination of documents from IBAMA and Treviso. Treviso's mean internal rate of return from the Project was calculated to have been 35.79%, considerably higher than that generated by the region's farms and ranches. The ITTO Project positively impacted Project workers, providing employment and exposing them to rainforest management techniques that maximize timber production while minimizing forest destruction. The paper closes by suggesting that more of the direct and indirect benefits of new reduced impact logging projects on Brazilian national forest land need to be channeled to the local population to increase the probability of them act as capable forest custodians.     

The stork, the plow, rural social structure and tropical deforestation in poor countries?

This study is an exploration of the relationships between income, demographic pressure, technological change in agriculture, and the structure of political economies in light of cross-country differences in deforestation. The study focuses on small farmers and shifting cultivation. The analysis is based on a model developed by Larson (1994) that accounts for rural poverty, rootlessness, and distribution of landholdings. Regression equations model the average annual rate of deforestation, the relative area under forests, and a recursive model that includes both the deforestation rate and the forested area. Deforestation was reasonably well explained by a dummy variable for Asia, a rank order variable of the amount of forested area in 1980, the gross domestic product per capita in 1990, the average annual population growth rate during 1981-90, and the percentage increase in value added to agriculture during 1981-90 in 1990 dollars. Findings indicate that a 10% increase in the population growth rate increased the rate of deforestation by 10.6%. A 10% increase in income per capita increased deforestation by 49.5%. The influence of income on deforestation followed Kuznet's U-shaped curve. The turning point for reduced deforestation was income of $3500 per capita. Only Central and South America are near this income level. An increase in 1 agricultural worker per household increased deforestation by 50%. A 10% increase in smallholders' share of agricultural land reduced deforestation by 3.4%. Countries with high rural rootlessness had 23.6% less relative area under forests, suggesting that rural rootlessness rather than poverty per se leads to deforestation. The recursive model shows that demographic pressures led to deforestation and were mediated by technological change. Political economy theories of deforestation received strong empirical support.     

Incentives,regulations, and sustainable land use in Costa Rica

Deforestation in Costa Rica has proceeded at a rapid pace. Of the remaining 2,700 km² of virgin forests on privately-owned land, over 300 km² are being deforested each year. Pressure on National Parks, which cover about 27 percent of Costa Rica is likely to increase in the future. Preliminary information indicates that, contrary to our expectations, most of the deforestation at present is not being done by squatters, but driven by profit and asset maximization motives of the timber industry, banana companies, and large cattle ranchers. Setting aside 27 percent of the country's land as parks and reserves was a major policy decision. Aside from the removal of some perverse incentives operating inside park areas, the main issue there is one of sound management, including protection from intruders, strengthening enforcement, and controlled tourism. On the remaining primary and secondary forest areas on privately-owned land outside the parks, a key question is whether public interests connected with external costs of deforestation warrant public intervention. The paper suggests that a differentiated approach to this and other questions is needed, depending on the costs and benefits involved, and it discusses incentives and regulations which influence land use, and makes proposals for reforms.     

Improving the way land use change is handled in economic models

Sound economic modelling of land use in global economic models is critical for evaluating agricultural, biofuel, and climate policies. Current approaches do not preserve physical land area, do not account for the fact that land is of different qualities, or do not explicitly include the cost of converting land from one use to another. This study proposes a land use modelling framework building on the additive form of the constant elasticity of transformation (ACET) approach. We demonstrated that the framework could (1) directly provide traceable physical land use results, (2) flexibly handle land productivity differences based on biophysical information, (3) explicitly introduce land conversion cost, and (4) provide welfare decomposition in light of land heterogeneity and conversion cost. An experiment of mandating a 10 percent increase in grain consumption in the US food sector showed that ignoring land heterogeneity and conversion cost would underestimate the welfare loss by 28 percent.     

At a crossroads: consequential trends in recognition of community-based forest tenure from 2002-2017

ABSTRACT

Insecure, contested, and unjust forest tenure arrangements undermine forest investment and protection, fuel conflict, and jeopardize Indigenous Peoples’, local communities’, and indigenous and community women’s rights, livelihoods, and development prospects. While legally recognized community forests tend to have lower rates of deforestation, store more carbon and benefit more people than forests managed by either public or private entities, evidence shows over two-thirds of forests remain controlled by governments – a significant portion of which is contested by indigenous and local communities who traditionally own, manage, and depend on these forests. It is therefore all the more critical that governments support and advance communities’ forest tenure rights. Using longitudinal tenure data and analysis of global forest ownership trends developed by the Rights and Resources Initiative, this article details the distribution of statutory forest rights across 58 countries covering nearly 92% of global forests over the fifteen-year period from 2002–2017.     

Public Open Access and Private Timber Harvests: Theory and Application to the Effects of Trade Liberalization in Mexico

A common popular assertion is that trade liberalization encourages deforestation. But whether this is true depends on how trade policies affect the allocation of land among competing uses and how they influence illegal cutting of public forests. A model is presented that allows for forests to be either public or private, and public forests are divided into protected (or managed) and threatened categories. Effects of price changes are shown on each part of the forest. An empirical version of the model is applied to the case of Mexico with NAFTA. Most scenarios considered show that NAFTA will have positive long-run effects on forest cover in Mexico but that this is net of losses on private lands.