物流业发展与外商直接投资关系的实证分析

本文利用协整分析对外商直接投资与中国物流业的发展关系进行了研究,选取了1994~2012年中国外商直接投资额、货物周转量及国内生产总值序列数据,采用单位货物周转量产值来描述物流业发展水平,考察中国物流业与外商直接投资之间的关系。研究发现中国物流业与外商直接投资存在协整关系,外商直接投资的增加有利于提升我国物流业整体发展水平。基于以上结论,本文得出了推进中国物流业整体发展的政策建议。     

外商直接投资对河南省产业结构升级作用研究

采用回归分析法对1990—2012年河南省外商直接投资存量与三次产业增加值的关系进行研究,结果表明,外商直接投资对河南省第二产业发展促进作用最大,对第三产业提高作用最小,并对于如何利用外商直接投资实现河南省产业结构优化升级提出加强对外商直接投资产业投向的引导和提高外资进入门槛的对策。     

武汉市外商直接投资发展状况及对策分析

改革开放以来,我国在吸引外商直接投资方面取得了重大成就,通过对武汉市外商直接投资发展状况的分析,重点研究了当前武汉市吸引外商直接投资的特点,在此基础上提出了促进武汉市吸引外商直接投资的对策建议。     

人民币汇率与外商直接投资关系研究——基于上海市的数据

运用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应分析等实证方法研究上海市外商直接投资与人民币实际有效汇率及其波动之间的相关性,研究表明:上海市外商直接投资(FDI)与实际有效汇率(REER)、地区国内生产总值(GDP)和对外依存度(OPEN)显著正相关,与汇率波动(VOL)和平均工资(WAGE)显著负相关;短期内人民币实际有效汇率及其波动对上海市外商直接投资存在影响,且汇率的波动比其实际值的大小更能影响外商直接投资;实际有效汇率及其波动的冲击在零期对外商直接投资均没有影响,响应值在第四期达到最大,实际有效汇率对于外商直接投资的影响主要体现在投资时机的选择上。     

FDI与经济增长效应的实证分析——以河南省为例

本文根据河南省1985～2010年外商直接投资(FDI)和国内生产总值(GDP)的数据,综合运用单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验等一系列计量经济手段,分析河南省外商直接投资与经济增长之间的关系.研究表明,河南省外商直接投资与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,FDI每增加1％,GDP就增加0.343％;当FDI短期波动偏离长期均衡时,经济系统将以0.087的调整力度将短期非均衡状态拉回到长期均衡状态;Granger因果关系检验表明,在10％的显著水平下,FDI对GDP具有单向的正向因果关系.     

外商直接投资对中国外贸结构影响的实证分析

采用中国外商直接投资和进出口数据,实证分析外商直接投资与进出口贸易结构的关系。研究发现中国外商直接投资对初级产品进口的增长在长期内有促进作用,在短期内有抑制作用;外商直接投资与初级产品出口、工业制成品进出口之间不存在显著的关系。外资对外贸结构优化有一定作用,但中国外贸结构优化不应过分依赖外资引进。     

基于Panel-Data模型的FDI对我国低碳经济发展的影响研究

随着经济全球化的发展,国际直接投资发展势头不断增强,且成为全球经济增长的重要引擎。2012年我国外商直接投资(FDI)流入量达1 117.2亿美元,成为吸引外商投资额最大的国家,FDI不仅带动了我国经济的发展,同时也对我国环境造成了一定程度的污染,作为世界第一大碳排放国和第二大能源消费国的中国,节能降耗减排,发展低碳经济已成为我国节约能源、改善生态环境的迫切要求。文章通过选取我国1991~2012年的外商直接投资和低碳经济指标数据,建立外商直接投资与低碳经济指标的面板数据模型,通过实证研究发现,外商直接投资与反映低碳经济水平的四个指标,即碳强度、单位国内生产总值能耗、人均二氧化排放量、清洁能源的利用存在长期的稳定关系,且具有显著的影响作用,说明随着我国外商直接投资的不断增加能够有效促进我国低碳经济的发展。     

外商直接投资与中国出口总量及结构的相关关系分析

根据1980年至1997年间外商直接投资与我国出口总量及结构的相关关系进行回归分析，结果表明外商直接投资对我国出口总量增长起到了重要的拉动作用，而外商直接投资与我国工业制成品出口和劳动密集型产品出口的高度相关性则表明外商直接投资改善了我国的出口商品结构，但对于我国产业结构升级的作用尚不明显，当前和今后我国利用外资，促进产业升级的关键，一是调整引资战略目标，二是严格按照国内产业结构升级目标，合理引导外资产业投向。     

中国外商直接投资影响因素的定量分析

利用《中国城市统计年鉴》(1 999)国民经济和社会发展统计数据 ,运用定量分析方法对中国外商直接投资 (FDI)的影响因素进行定量研究发现 :经济实力是影响外商直接投资的主要因素 ,这与进入 90年代以来外商选择直接投资区位的变化是一致的 ;经济效益是影响外商直接投资的次要因素 ,但与外商直接投资的相关性不显著 ;产业结构主要是通过影响外商直接投资的产业分布 ,来间接影响外商直接投资的吸引力。但现阶段经济效益是影响外商直接投资的次要因素 ,与外商直接投资的相关性不显著。     

人民币汇率变动对中国经济增长的影响分析——基于进出口贸易和外商直接投资传导机制的视角

人民币汇率作为联系中国经济与国际经济的纽带,对中国经济发展有着重要的影响。本文阐述了人民币汇率变动对相关经济变量的影响,并实证分析了人民币汇率通过进出口贸易、外商直接投资对国内生产总值的影响。结果显示,人民币实际汇率与进出口贸易、外商直接投资以及国内生产总值存在长期稳定的关系。最后,提出了控制人民币升值幅度的对策建议。     

Foreign direct investment and growth in India: a cointegration approach

The two-way link between foreign direct investment and growth for India is explored using a structural cointegration model with vector error correction mechanism. The existence of two cointegrating vectors between GDP, FDI, the unit labour cost and the share of import duty in tax revenue is found, which captures the long run relationship between FDI and GDP. A parsimonious vector error correction model (VECM) is then estimated to find the short run dynamics of FDI and growth. Our VECM model reveals three important features: (a) GDP in India is not Granger caused by FDI; the causality runs more from GDP to FDI; (b) trade liberalization policy of the Indian government had some positive short run impact on the FDI flow; and (c) FDI tends to lower the unit labour cost suggesting that FDI in India is labour displacing.     

Spillover effects of FDI inflows on output growth: An analysis of aggregate and disaggregated FDI inflows of 13 MENA economies

This paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on overall growth, as well as its sector-specific spillovers in the Middle Eastern and North African region during the period from 2000 to 2020. Our major innovation is our ability to disaggregate FDI into primary, secondary and tertiary and examine their individual impact on growth, as well as their sector-specific spillovers by using dynamic panel GMM methodology. We find prima facie evidence that total FDI significantly stimulates growth. However, when we turn to the disaggregated FDI data, primary sector FDI adversely affects the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the service sector and overall GDP growth. On the other hand, secondary FDI has a ‘double-edged’ effect, benefiting its own sector (the service sector's GDP growth), but not other sectors. In contrast, service sector FDI stimulates GDP growth in mining, manufacturing and service sectors, thereby enhancing overall economic growth. Our findings have important policy implications regarding the incentives provided by governments to encourage FDI, which need to be fine-tuned to attract certain types of FDI (tertiary), with less focus on the primary sector     

In search of FDI-led growth in developing countries: The way forward

This paper challenges the widespread belief that FDI generally has a positive impact on economic growth in developing countries. It addresses the limitations of the existing literature and re-examines the FDI-led growth hypothesis for 28 developing countries using cointegration techniques on a country-by-country basis. The paper finds that in the vast majority of countries, there exists neither a long-term nor a short-term effect of FDI on growth; in fact, there is not a single country where a positive unidirectional long-term effect from FDI to GDP is found. Furthermore, our results indicate that there is no clear association between the growth impact of FDI and the level of per capita income, the level of education, the degree of openness and the level of financial market development in developing countries.     

Growth and Foreign Direct Investment in the Pacific Island countries

Achieving sustained high rates of economic growth in Pacific countries has proved incredibly challenging. Despite many being rich in natural resources, receiving high levels of foreign aid and being open to external trade, the economic growth rates of Pacific Island countries are the lowest and most volatile for all groups of developing countries. This paper examines the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to the Pacific region. Results from the estimation of a number of empirical models suggest that the impact of FDI is lower in Pacific countries than it is in host countries on average. A 10% increase in the ratio of FDI to host Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is associated with higher growth of about 2% in all countries on average. The impact in Pacific countries falls to between 0.1 and 0.4%. A number of explanations for this finding are provided including some empirical evidence that FDI displaces domestic investment in the region.     

Does good governance matter for FDI? New evidence from emerging countries using a static and dynamic panel gravity model approach

This paper assesses the impact of institutional factors on foreign direct investment (FDI) attractiveness using a pool of 25 emerging host countries (ECs) for the period 1996–2012. In particular, the paper aims to examine whether higher institutional quality and good governance do improve FDI attractiveness, and thereby to identify which institutional factors are the main drivers of FDI in ECs. Using a static and dynamic panel gravity model with various estimation techniques, we find that FDI is positively and significantly influenced by political stability, government effectiveness and regulatory quality. The remaining set of governance indicators is found to be statistically significant and negatively linked to FDI. Our findings also show that factors like a larger GDP per capita difference between investing partner and ECs, higher degree of trade openness and better infrastructure have positive and significant effects on FDI attractiveness. These results have important policy implications for ECs. Fostering FDI inflows into these countries requires policymakers to improve the quality of their institutions and business climate through implementing sound economic policies and regulations.     

The determinants of foreign direct investment in Malaysia: A case for electrical and electronic industry

This study attempts to analyse the determinants of inward FDI in the electrical and electronic (E&E) industry in Malaysia using bounds test approach for the 1980–2008 period. It is found that GDP, real exchange rate, financial development, corporate income tax, macroeconomic uncertainty and social uncertainty factors significantly affect inward FDI in E&E sector in Malaysia. Empirical results indicate that GDP, real exchange rate, financial development and macroeconomic uncertainty are positively related to inward FDI in E&E sector in the long run. However, corporate income tax and social uncertainty have a negative impact on inward FDI in E&E sector. Furthermore, the Granger causality results also indicate that all explanatory variables Granger-cause FDI in the long-run, but in the short-run only macroeconomic and social uncertainties Granger-cause FDI. The impact of social uncertainty is found to be greater than macroeconomic uncertainty. Thus, foreign investors in E&E sector seem to be more concern about the level of social security and safety when choosing their investment destination.     

FDI视角的环境库兹涅茨假说检验——基于中国中部八省的面板数据

环境库兹涅茨假说认为环境污染指标先随收入的提高而增加,而后随收入的提高而下降。本文利用1985-2008年中国中部八省大气污染、污水和固体废弃物（＂三废＂）等环境质量指标的面板数据,从FDI的视角对中国中部经济发展与环境污染关系进行了库兹涅茨假说检验。结果显示,中国中部八省没有严格意义上的倒U型环境库兹涅茨曲线,FDI对中部各省环境的影响存在差异,数据回归结果也没有支持污染天堂假说。     

U.S. foreign direct investment in Latin America and the Caribbean: a case of remittances and market size

This article investigates the effect of remittances on U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It covers 26 countries for the period 1983–2010. The results show a positive and significant impact of remittances on U.S. FDI flows. However, this effect depends upon the level of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of the host country. On average, the results show that increasing remittances by one standard deviation increases U.S. FDI flows by 0.44 percent a year. Also, host country demand positively affects U.S. FDI flows, which supports the market size hypothesis.     

THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN CAPITAL ON MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN CENTRAL ASIA

This paper investigates the short‐run impact of shocks in international capital flows channeled through foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign aid on national output and export performance in five Central Asian economies under a dynamic multivariate structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) framework. The identification of structural shocks is implemented by AB model based on IS‐LM‐BP postulates. The main message is that external capital shocks are persistent and small open economies are weak to absorb them. Overall, the aid shocks reduce national outputs, while FDI increase it, on average. The expansion of global demand (G20) leads to an increase in domestic GDPs, notably in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The impact is augmented by a positive effect of FDI on export channel (and net exports) that shift the IS curve upwards. We cannot find any significant aid‐FDI nexus in the region, except in Kazakhstan. The structural variance decomposition (SFEVD) results suggest that external flows and foreign demand together explain the bigger part of variability in domestic GDP and exports. Finally, variations in foreign capital, aid and FDI, are mainly explained by series themselves. The role of domestic activities is found to be weaker for aid and greater for FDI. The results could be attributed to rigid exchange rates, high trade dependence, and necessity for foreign capital to explore natural resources in Central Asian region. Our results provide some valuable suggestions to improve an investment climate for boosting economic growth.     

外商直接投资与天津出口贸易的互动关系——基于脉冲响应函数法的实证分析

本文利用天津1980-2007年的年度统计数据,运用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验方法分析了出口贸易与外商直接投资之间的关系,并利用广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解法进一步分析了两者间的动态关系。研究结果表明,天津的出口贸易与外商直接投资、贸易伙伴国的经济增长和进口贸易之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,外商直接投资、贸易伙伴国的经济增长和进口贸易都是出口贸易变动的原因。从动态角度看,在短期内,天津出口贸易对外商直接投资冲击的反应短期较为明显,而贸易伙伴国经济增长与进口贸易对出口贸易的影响在短期并不显著;从长期来看,FDI对出口贸易具有明显的替代效应,出口贸易增长主要依赖于进口贸易,而贸易伙伴国经济增长对出口贸易的影响作用十分有限。