The evolution of post-communist systems

I propose in this article a new interpretation of the evolution of post-communist systems by comparing the evolutions in Central and Eastern Europe and in China. Transition is reinterpreted as the result of a collapse of communist state structures in Central and Eastern Europe and, in China, in contrast, as the result of the will to prevent such an outcome. This reconceptualization helps us to better understand the emergence of bad institutions and corruption in Eastern Europe under the market economy as well as the absence of political liberalization in China and the strengthening of the power of the Communist Party in recent years.     

Trade Liberalization in Agriculture in Developed Nations and Incidence of Child Labour in a Developing Economy

This paper is an attempt to analyse the consequence of trade liberalization in agriculture in the developed countries on the incidence of child labour in a developing economy in terms of a three‐sector general equilibrium model with informal sectors. Adult labour and child labour are substitutes for each other in the two informal sectors of the economy and are used together apart from capital in producing two exportable commodities. The interesting result that appears from the analysis is that agricultural trade liberalization in the developed countries may be effective in bringing down the incidence of child labour in the system. The paper substantiates the desirability of trade liberalization in agriculture in the developed nations from the perspective of the developing economies for reasons other than welfare improvement.     

Wage Inequality,Increased Competition,and Trade Liberalization: Short Run vs Long Run

This paper examines the impact of increased competition and trade liberalization on skilled–unskilled wage inequality in the short run as well as the long run. It is shown that an increase in the number of firms in the producer services sector increases wage inequality in the short run even if the income shares of capital in the industrial and agricultural sectors were identical. A decrease in the services sector's fixed cost decreases wage inequality in the short run if the income share of capital in the agricultural sector is relatively large. Owing to the presence of external economies, a decrease in the services sector's fixed cost increases wage inequality in the long run. A decrease in import duty on the agricultural good increases wage inequality in the short as well as the long run but its effect in the long run is stronger due to the presence of external economies in the industrial sector.     

The U-shape of happiness in Scotland

We examine well-being in Scotland using micro data from the Scottish Health Survey and the UK Annual Population Surveys. We find evidence of a midlife nadir or zenith in Scotland in well-being at around age 50 using a variety of measures of both happiness and unhappiness. We confirm that higher consumption of fruit and vegetables is associated with higher levels of happiness in Scotland. We compare this with evidence for England from the Health Survey of England. The decline in well-being between youth and midlife is comparable in size to the loss of a spouse or of a job and around half of the fall in well-being in the COVID-19 lockdown. We also find a midlife peak in suicides in Scotland. Despite higher mortality and suicide rates in Scotland than in England, paradoxically we find that the Scots are happier than the English. Northern Ireland is the happiest of the four home countries. We also find evidence of U-shapes in England, Wales and Northern Ireland in the mid to late forties.     

Biodiversity conservation, loss of natural capital and interest rates

It is argued that there is neither regular relationship between changes in the level of the market rate of interest and variations in the rate of biodiversity loss nor does such a regular relationship occur between alterations in the market rate of interest and changes in the rate of natural resource extraction. However, some texts suggest otherwise. Microeconomic examples are given in which a rise in the market rate of interest results in increased biodiversity loss and others in which it does not. It is also posited that the rate of biodiversity loss (as well as the rate of natural resource extraction) tends to rise with the level of aggregate investment and aggregate economic activity. It is demonstrated, using macroeconomic models, that the market rate of interest can increase or decrease with a rise in aggregate investment and also with an increase in the level of aggregate economic activity. Therefore, changes in biodiversity loss (and in the rate of natural resource extraction) are independent of variations in the market rate of interest in macroeconomic models.     

长江三角洲都市圈老人乡村休闲养老研究

近年来,长江三角洲都市圈越来越多的老人选择季节性移居乡村休闲养老,这种发展趋势是老龄化程度不断加深、城市养老资源不足和乡村休闲旅游快速发展共同作用的结果。通过对两个乡村休闲养老目的地的调查研究,结果表明：休闲养老目的地的形成可以分为在乡村旅游发展基础上的自发模式和企业投资促成的“联众模式”两种;乡村休闲养老者群体主要是低龄老人,选择乡村休闲养老目的地时主要受目的地自然环境、人文环境、休闲养老配套设施、生活基础设施、管理服务和目的地形象等因素的影响。季节性移居乡村休闲养老不仅可以缓解老龄化背景下都市圈不断增大的养老压力,而且可以解决乡村休闲旅游设施淡季的闲置问题,推动乡村环境的改善,促进当地村民的就业致富和城乡文明的交融与传播。都市圈具备条件的乡村可以把满足周边城市乡村休闲养老需求作为未来经济转型发展的一个方向。     

中国建筑园林的南北差异

我国建筑和园林南北差异明显。在园林方面,南巢北穴,缘由不同;南敞北实,形式不同;南水北石,要素不同;南花北柏,植被不同;南私北皇,社会背景不同。在宗教建筑方面,南方多佛教名山和道教洞天福地,北方多佛教石窟。此外,在民居的空间布局和建筑形式方面、街坊格局方面,也有差异。建筑和园林的南北差异是我国地域文化景观的重要组成部分。     

WHY GROWTH RATES DIFFER—A SUMMARY AND APPRAISAL

This review article initially summarizes some of the highlights of the volume Why Growth Rates Differ , including the use of income shares as weights for the various factor inputs and some of the major factual conclusions drawn from the inter-country comparisons. Some of the main factors in differences in income levels and differences in growth rates are then reviewed.
In appraising the contribution of the volume, the monumental task is emphasized. This study illustrates the adaptability of the approach which Denison developed initially in The Sources of Economic Growth. The volume meets many of the questions and criticisms raised of his earlier study, and should encourage a shift of the discussion from methodology towards the substance of the empirical results.
The volume introduces some shifts in emphasis on the importance of different factors in growth. The role of demand variations and the contribution of capital is considered, but the evidence in the volume gives less emphasis on the importance of these factors than earlier work by others in both the United States and Europe. The volume gives some emphasis to shifts out of agriculture and the self-employed in the high postwar growth in many individual European countries. It considers the effects of reductions in trade barriers, and follows the view of most economists in playing this down. Advances in knowledge are also considered.
Those who are interested in questions of economic growth, past and future, and economic policy in this area will find much in this volume for study and reflection.     

Capital punishment and deterrence: a portfolio approach

Econometric studies of the deterrence effect of capital punishment have developed models of the supply of criminal homicides which include a variable to measure the probability of capital punishment. The present study, in contrast, employs a portfolio approach in which a model is developed realting changes in the rate of homicides across states to changes in the rate of a portfolio of all reported criminal offences. The effects of executions on changes in homicide rates are measured by changes in the nature of the relationship between homicide and the portfolio and abnormal variations in the residual of a model developed in the absence of executions. Using data from 1983–1988 across states and the District of Columbia, both the nature of the relationship and the residual variation are found to be uniquely altered in a manner consistent with the deterrence hypothesis. The results of the present study provide insight into why some studies of capital punishment may have failed to find appropriate disturbances in the rate of homicide. Disturbances may be observed only after accounting for changes in the crime portfolio. That is, those conditions that cause crime rates to rise in general may induce increases in the homicide rate that overwhelm the negative effect produced by executions.     

中国城乡一体化评析及公共政策探讨

对城乡一体化理论、概念及其形成背景作了讨论,对我国一些地方实施城乡一体化的结果作了实地考察,在此基础上根据若干文献资料对我国一些地方实施城乡一体化的实践作了评价。并得出结论：从制度、机制角度提出的城乡一体化,在实践中发生了概念性误偏,畸变成了物质环境布局的一体化,结果未能收到预定成效,反而影响了地方的可持续发展。最后,提出了实施我国城乡一体化的若干公共政策建议。     

The International Economy — A Survey

In most of the major world economies the hesitancy evident toward the end of last year has dissipated and the cyclical upswing in economic activity was well advanced by the middle of 1976, with the recovery showing particular strength in the first half of 1976 inthe United States and in West Germany. Even so industrial production had not yet returned, by the end of June 1976, to the previous cyclical peak in any of the major economies. With the OECD countries in aggregate sure to achieve a real growth rate of 4 per cent in 1976, and quite possibly an appreciably higher rate, the attention of many national and international policy makers is turning to ways of moderating the recovery so that inflationary pressures can be minimised. For in spite of the depth of the 1974/75 world recession the outlook for inflation remains threatening, much more so than at the corresponding stage of the previous cycle in 1972. In the twelve months to May 1976 consumer prices rose by 9.0 per cent in all OECD countries and this figure is disturbingly high for the trough of a serious recession. World commodity prices have risen about 35 per cent in dollar terms in the past year; as in the 1973–74 boom the major economies are now moving into an upswing simultaneously, thus compounding possible demand effects on inflation; business investment has fallen sharply in all countries during the recession, and only in the United States is a strong recovery in investment currently in evidence. The rate of growth of wages has however moderated in most countries, reflecting weak labour market conditions, lower consumer price increases and in countries such as United Kingdom and Canada the successful implementation of incomes policies. With output increasing, the rate of growth of unit wage costs has in most cases dropped sharply.     

重庆市城市用地供需状况研究

首先从供给数量和供给质量两方面,分析了重庆市区城市建设用地的供给状况。耕地在重庆市城市建设用地的供给来源中占有重要地位,但供给数量有限;受重庆市区自然条件的限制,城市建设用地的质量较差,表现在坡地多、平地少,冲沟多、地块小,难建地多、宜建地少,所以,重庆市城市建设用地的供给能力相当有限。其次,分析了重庆市区城市建设用地的需求状况。从城市GDP的增长、重点建设项目和城市人均用地水平的提高这三个方面分析了城市建设用地的未来需求趋势。结论是：重庆城市建设用地的供给相当有限,而需求量很大;随着未来重庆市经济社会的发展,城市用地的供需矛盾将成为城市发展中面临的一个重大问题。从合理利用和保护土地资源,为重庆的经济发展提供用地支持和保障的角度出发,文章就此问题提出了对策和建议。     

让数学“用”起来——从数学建模中看大学数学教学

首先讨论了数学建模的实用性。然后分析数学建模在大学数学课堂教学中的融合、在学生科技创新活动中的融合、在数学实验教学中的融合、在竞赛中的融合、在日常生活中的融合,并通过这些融合,让数学＂用＂起来。最后研究了数学建模在大学数学教学中有效融合的挑战。     

Fast Development With a Stable Income Distribution: Taiwan, 1979–94

This paper studies the mechanisms underlying the apparent stability of the income distribution in Taiwan. An original decomposition method based on micro-simulation techniques is proposed. Applied to the distribution of income in Taiwan since 1979, it permits isolating the respective impact of changes in: (a) the earning structure; (b) labor-force participation behavior; and (c) the socio-demographic structure of the population. The stability of the distribution in Taiwan appears as the result of various structural forces which happened to offset each other. The small drop observed in the inequality of individual earnings resulted from the combination of unequalizing changes in the wage structure and the effects of changes in female labor-force participation as well as in the educational structure of the population. However, the same offsetting forces, together with changes in the composition of households, resulted in a small increase in the inequality of the distribution of equivalized household income.     

Declining output volatility in Germany: impulses,propagation, and the role of monetary policy

The decline in output volatility in Germany is analysed. A lower level of variance in an autoregressive model of output growth can be either due to a change in the structure of the economy (a change in the propagation mechanism) or a reduced error term variance (reduced impulses). In Germany the decline output volatility is due to a decline in the persistence of the growth process. This is in contrast to the US results, where a break in the variance seems to dominate the decline in persistence. A change in the conduct of monetary policy (the establishment of another monetary policy regime) could be part of an explanation for the change in propagation. Stochastic simulations with a New Keynesian DSGE model support the hypothesis.     

Increasing wage dispersion and the changes in relative employment and wages in Mexico's urban informal sector: 1987-1993

This study analyses the role of changes in informal/formal relative employment, wage levels and wage inequality in explaining increasing wage dispersion in Mexico during the 1987–1993 period. From 1987 to 1993, the variance of the log of hourly wages for Mexican workers increased by more than 50 per cent. Using data from the Encuesta nacional de empleo urbano we find that this increase in the overall wage dispersion was mainly driven by increasing wage dispersion in the formal sector coupled with a faster growth in formal sector employment as a percentage of total employment. However, compression in the distribution of wages within the informal sector contributed to substantially slowdown the increasing overall wage inequality. About 60 per cent of the 1987–1993 4.65 percentage point reduction in the informal sector share of total employment is explained by changes in the structure that determines sectoral employment; the rest is explained by changes in the composition of the labour force, particularly increases in the sectoral education gap and a change in the regional relative share of sectoral employment. Also, from 1987 to 1993 the sectoral wage ratio increased from 0.59 to 0.63. It seems that a relative improvement in unobserved skills in the informal sector helped to close the wage differential but this effect was partially offset by an increase in the relative prices of both observed and unobserved skills, as well as increases in relative observed skills in the formal sector, particularly education.     

加工贸易活动成效差异原因探究——基于东亚与拉美的经验

台湾地区、韩国加工装配活动成功和智利、阿根廷成效差异的原因,在于发展战略、政策环境、劳动力市场发育程度与外部环境差异等等;东亚由加工装配活动成功向加工贸易活动转变,而东南亚成效不佳的原因,在于后向联系和技术溢出方面的差异;中国大陆的加工装配活动是成功的,已在增加就业、增加国民收入与缩小收入差距、平衡国际收支和技术转移方面发挥了积极作用,沿海地区加工装配产业在比较优势将消失的趋势下,向中部地区转移这些产业并同时实现产业升级将是最优选择.     

The Relative Earnings from Self and Paid Employment: A Time-series Analysis for the UK

We investigate the determinants of variations in the reported relative earnings of self-employed and paid-employed workers in the United Kingdom, focusing in particular on the significant decline which has taken place since 1980. We find that the main factors behind this decline have been the rise in the rate of self-employment itself and a reduction in the level of capital per self-employed worker; effects which we associate with a decline in the quality of the average self-employed business. Changes in the tax rates on income and in the sectoral composition of GDP helped to reduce the scale of the decline in self-employment relative earnings to some degree.     

INFLATION DYNAMICS IN LATIN AMERICA

This article studies the mean and the persistence of inflation in the 10 largest Latin American countries for the period 1980–2007. We find multiple shifts in the mean, with inflation in the region increasing throughout the eighties and decreasing in the nineties, thus documenting that the rise and fall of inflation in Latin America occurred a decade later than in industrial countries. Regarding the persistence, we find that it is high but that it decreases when the shifts in the mean are taken into account, as in developed countries, while it appears to have decreased recently in more than half of the countries in our sample. Finally, we find that only about a third of the total variation of inflation in Latin America can be explained by a common factor and, therefore, that most of the variation in the region has been related to idiosyncratic factors. We discuss the relation of our findings with economic policies implemented in the region . ( JEL E31, E42, C22)     

我国碳排放的区域差异及驱动因素分析——基于脱钩和三层完全分解模型的实证研究

文章通过计算1995-2009年我国29个省市的碳排放量,揭示了我国碳排放的区域差异特征,并进一步构建"LMDI三层完全分解模型",研究了各地区碳排放增长的9类驱动因素,其中人均GDP是促进碳排放增长的决定因素,产业部门的能源强度下降是抑制碳排放增长的主要因素。文章根据这9类因素对各地区碳排放增长的影响方向和影响程度及其导致区域碳排放的异质性特征,提出了我国差异化区域碳减排政策。