Factors affecting electricity generation in China: Current situation and prospects

China has attracted worldwide attention due to the global economic and environmental effects of its rapid economic growth over the last 20 years, with particular attention given to the country's accelerating energy consumption and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. China's electricity sector is particularly important for both of these issues as it accounts for nearly half of its greenhouse gas emissions and even greater proportions of the country's demands for primary fuel resources. In order to better understand how these issues may progress in an economy changing as fast as China's, this paper develops a framework that can be used to help model the electricity sector's future development. The framework builds upon key technological and socio-economic drivers, including those affecting electricity demand (e.g., economic growth, structure, energy efficiency, urbanization, and change in per capita income) and electricity supply (e.g., deregulation, initiatives to promote natural gas, nuclear and renewable energy, air pollution regulations, price developments for coal and natural gas, and changes in generation technology). The framework serves as a foundation for a scenario exercise on the greenhouse gas and fuel consumption impacts of different developmental paths for China's electricity sector. These scenarios and their implications for emissions and fuel consumption are presented in a subsequent article.     

INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC ACCOUNTING: FRAMEWORK FOR A SNA SATELLITE SYSTEM

National accounts have provided the most widely used indicators for the assessment of economic performance, trends of economic growth and of the economic counterpart of social welfare. However, two major drawbacks of national accounting have raised doubts about the usefulness of national accounts data for the measurement of long-term sustainable economic growth and socio-economic development. These drawbacks are the neglect of (a) scarcities of natural resources which threaten the sustained productivity of the economy and (b) the degradation of environmental quality from pollution and its effects on human health and welfare. In the present paper, the authors attempt to reflect environmental concerns in an accounting framework which maintains as far as possible SNA concepts and principles. To this end, the accounting framework is used to develop a "SNA Satellite System for Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting" (SEEA). Environmental costs of economic activities, natural asset accounts and expenditures for environmental protection and enhancement, are presented in flow accounts and balance sheets in a consistent manner, i.e. maintaining the accounting identities of SNA. Such accounting permits the definition and compilation of modified indicators of income and expenditure, product, capital and value added, allowing for the depletion of natural resources, the degradation of environmental quality and social response to these effects. A desk study of a selected country is used to clarify the proposed approaches, to demonstrate their application in future country studies and to illustrate the quantitative effects of the use of modified concepts on the results of analysis.     

"三农问题"的缓解会降低中国的出口竞争力吗?

我国的出口竞争力主要来自于低廉的工资成本.依赖FDI和加工贸易的迅速增长,我国形成了低成本扩张的外向型经济增长模式.这种增长模式和"三农问题"存在紧密的内在联系."三农问题"的缓解,劳动者工资的提高,并不一定会降低我国的国际竞争力.从长期来看,转变这种不可持续的增长模式与解决"三农问题"应该而且能够协调互动.     

Scenario development in China's electricity sector

The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and global resource depletion. In 2005, the generation of electricity in China resulted in the emissions of 2290 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (approximately 53% of the nation's total) and required 779 million metric tonnes of coal (approximately 50% of China's total coal consumption). These figures are expected to increase with China's economic growth. In order to gauge the range in which fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by the authors (published in (vol.) of this journal). The application and analysis of this shows that under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, electricity generation could contribute upwards of 56% of China's energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Meanwhile, consumption of coal will also increase, growing to nearly 60% of total national demand by 2020. However, variations in a number of key drivers could produce significant deviation from the BAU scenario. With accelerated economic output, even with greater technological advances and greater potential to bring natural gas on stream, carbon dioxide emissions would rise 10% above the BAU. Alternatively, in a scenario where China's economy grows at a tempered pace, less investment would be available for advanced technologies, developing natural gas infrastructure, or nuclear energy. In this scenario, reduced economic growth and electricity demand would thereby be countered by reduced efficiency and a higher contribution of coal.     

对外经济发展与生态环境研究

Since China＇s opening to the outside world, a large amomt of foreign investment has flowed into the country. The domestic economy has been full of vigor and vitality after adepting the socialist market economy, which contributes to a higher economic growth. However, ecological enviromnent has a close relationship with the foreign economic development. The good ecological environment and natural resources are the foundation of foreign economir development. With the expansion of its market economy. China is confronted with a series of sustainable development challenges related to population, resources and environmental protection, etc. How we should prevent and control effectively the impact of economic development upon the environment and avoid serious. effect and damages on environmental quality are the key points this paper will discuss.     

可持续发展视角下自然资源价格构成的进一步研究

自然资源是人类赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础和经济基础。在资源枯竭和环境污染日益严重的今天,必须重新认识自然资源的价格。文章从可持续发展的视角研究了自然资源的价格构成成分及其相互之间的关系,提出自然资源的价格由内部价值和外部性成本构成,内部价值包括天然价值和人工价值,外部性成本包括环境成本、生态成本和代际补偿成本。只有清楚认识自然资源的价格构成及其关系,才能为自然资源的定价提供客观科学的依据。     

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL DILEMMAS

Rapid economic growth in the Asian-Pacific region provides economic hope for the region's low-income countries but raises international environmental dilemmas and could be unsustainable. The strong international and Asian political support for Asia's economic growth often makes little mention of the environmental issues involved. The natural resources water, air, and soils as well as Asia's conservation of living resources and maintenance of biodiversity are important environmental issues. Tourism development—especially ecotourism—could combine economic development and conservation, but as Asian examples illustrate, it has limitations. Other environmental influences include the rapid urbanisation of Asia and the likelihood of increased international and transboundary conflicts over use of natural resources as economic growth in Asia proceeds. Markets and market reforms are not sufficient to deal with Asia's economic problems. Institutional and other reforms also are needed. One must reject the view that economic growth neglecting the environment is acceptable even in low-income countries. Polluting and degrading the environment now and repairing it later is a dangerous policy to follow, particularly for larger Asian countries. In fact, a strong case exists for high-income countries to support the environmental conservation efforts of low-income countries.     

Environment, human development and economic growth

Over the last few years, environmental issues have entered into policy design, particularly development and growth policies. Natural resources are considered necessary production inputs and environmental quality is considered a welfare determinant. The integration of environmental issues into economic growth and development theories and empirics is currently widely analyzed in the literature. The effects of natural resources endowment on economic growth are mainly analyzed through the so-called Resource Curse Hypothesis (RCH) whereas the effects of economic growth on environmental quality are part of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Furthermore, recent contributions on RCH and EKC have shown the important role of institutions and human development dimensions in building a sustainable development path. In this paper, we attempt to analyze the causal relationships between economic growth, human development and sustainability combining the RCH and EKC models and adopting a human development perspective. Results confirm the importance of high institutional quality and investments for human capital accumulation in order to build a sustainable development path.     

The Role of Natural Resources in Economic Development

Economists now recognize that, along with physical and human capital, environmental resources should be viewed as important economic assets, which can be called natural capital. Three recent debates have emerged over the role of natural capital in economic development. First, as many ecological services are unique, does the environment have an “essential” role in sustaining human welfare, and if so, are special “compensation rules” required to ensure that future welfare is not worsened by natural capital depletion today? Second, the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis has fostered empirical estimations of an “inverted U” shaped relationship between a variety of indicators of environmental pollution or resource depletion and the level of per capita income. Does the existence of such EKC relationships suggest that environmental degradation will eventually decline with growth? Finally, recent economic theories and empirical evidence have questioned whether lower income economies that are endowed with abundant natural resources develop more rapidly than economies that are relatively resource poor. Is it possible that resource abundant economies are not reinvesting the rents generated from natural resource exploitation into productive assets, or that resource booms actually divert economic resources from more productive and innovative sectors?     

SWEEA—Swedish environmental and economic accounts

As part of the Swedish effort at integrating economic and environmental issues, Statistics Sweden has developed a system of physical environmental accounts. The system is based on the concept of satellite accounts which supplement the traditional national accounts. Here, Statistics Sweden focuses on the chain linking natural resources to economic activities and emissions. Current projects include the use of energy and the emission of pollutants, statistics on waste generation and recycling, and accounts for phosphorus and nitrogen flows. Attention is also paid to improvements of data on expenditures on environmental protection.     

节约增长的内涵和路径选择

近年来我国经济社会快速发展的同时,伴随着资源的大量消耗,给经济社会带来了巨大的成本代价,制约经济科学发展的资源瓶颈日益凸显。按照以科学发展观统领经济社会发展的新要求,在经济社会运行中对资源需求进行减量化,以最少的资源消耗创造最大的经济和社会效益,形成节约型增长方式,这是我国实现经济又好又快发展、全面建设小康社会、构建和谐社会的重要保障。     

环境成本内部化与企业竞争力

环境成本内部化可以纠正市场失灵,优化资源配置,促进社会经济的可持续发展,是21世纪经济发展的重大趋势。环境成本内部化对企业的影响是多重的和不确定的,与环境标准、企业的贸易依存度、企业产品的品质、企业的规模和生产水平、企业的组织结构、企业所处的社会背景等多种因素有关。从短期来看,环境成本内部化因为增加了企业成本倾向于削弱企业竞争力,但从长期看来,环境成本内部化与企业维持和提升自身生产力和竞争力是相一致的。最后,本文针对中国企业给出了若干应对环境成本内部化的对策。     

完善我国环境保护税收制度的思考

当前,我国资源破坏和环境污染问题相当严峻,要实现中国跨世纪环保政策目标和可持续发展战略,必须依靠税收这种有效的经济手段。但是,我国现行的税费政策总体作用有限,因而必须进一步完善我国环境保护税收制度,一是改革和完善现行资源税;二是及时开征环境保护税;三是在其它一般性税收中采取各种税收调节措施,体现环保目标。     

自然资源与区域经济发展关系的理论之辩

我国工业化和城市化进程的不断加快,以及既成经济增长模式的转型困难,使得自然资源已成为支撑我国经济社会发展的必备要素,但纵观世界资源富集地区的发展可以发现,并非所有的资源富集地区都能因资源的开发利用而获得很好的发展,有些地区甚至出现了衰落。在此背景下,提出资源在促进区域经济发展上,存在着正负两方面的效应,并进一步提出资源与区域经济发展关系在理论上的三方面困惑,即资源的枯竭性、企业的逐利性与资源型地区长久发展之间的矛盾、资源型产业集聚所形成的"路径依赖"与产业结构优化升级需求之间的矛盾、政府在资源型地区发展中的角色矛盾,因此,只有有效的处理好这三方面的关系,才能更好地促进资源型地区的发展。     

Environmental Valuation – To Use or Not to Use? A Comparative Study of the United States and Europe

Valuation methods have been used for five main purposes in environmental decision-making. Cost–benefit analysis (CBA) of projects, CBA of new regulations, natural resource damage assessment, environmental costing, and environmental accounting. The relatively lower importance attached to economic efficiency in environmental decision-making in most European countries compared to the U.S.A., both legally and in practice, might account for our general finding that there are very few valuation studies in Europe which have served as a decisive basis for environmental policy and regulations. However, with EU's goal to establish environmentally adjusted national accounts and to apply CBA to environmental policy and regulations, time seems ripe for an increased use of valuation techniques in Europe.     

中国经济增长中土地资源的“尾效”分析

土地资源是人类赖以生存与发展的重要物质基础。根据大卫·罗默的假说,由于土地与其他自然资源的限制,实际的经济增长将呈下降趋势,即存在因土地与其他自然资源的消耗而引起的"尾效"。1978—2005年,中国经济增长中土地资源的"尾效"平均每年约为1.26个百分点。也就是说,由于土地资源的消耗,在1978—2005年期间,中国的经济增长速度平均每年降低了1.26%。按照这一数据推算下去,到2030年,中国的年经济增长率将会因为土地资源的"尾效"而降低到目前经济增长率的74%;到2050年,中国的年经济增长率将会因为土地资源的"尾效"而降低到目前经济增长率的57%。     

经济发展对环境资源公平配置的影响研究

伴随着我国经济的持续高速增长,地区之间的经济差距逐渐扩大,势必影响到地区之间的环境资源配置状况。对经济发展、经济公平与环境公平之间的相互关系进行了探讨。通过构建环境基尼系数来定量分析我国环境资源配置的公平状况;根据经济增长与环境质量之间的环境库茨涅茨经验曲线假定,采用数值分析方法研究了人均GDP、经济基尼系数对环境基尼系数的影响。我国1996～2008年SO2省际排放差异的实证研究结果与数值分析结果基本一致,表明随着我国经济发展水平的不断提高,经济基尼系数变大的同时,环境基尼系数反而呈现下降趋势。     

Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting: An Application to the Forest Resources in India

Forests contribute to the economy in several ways. While forests are a source of timber with market values, they also influence local and regional climate, preserve soil cover on site, and in the case of watersheds, protect soil downstream from floods –functions, which are not in the production boundary of SNA. Further, the net value added in forestry sector does not reflect sustainability of forest resources, because it ignores the consumption of natural capital (depletion) that occurs when forests are harvested or converted to other uses. The only costs of depletion considered in the national accounts are the extraction costs and records the potential loss in forest wealth as other changes in assets that have no effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The study tries to incorporate forest resources into the national accounts and adjust the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the depletion of forest capital, using the Satellite System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA). The value of net accumulation (positive or negative) of forests is calculated and the net Domestic Product is adjusted for the depletion of the forest resources to get Environment adjusted Domestic Product (EDP). The results show that the EDP equals 98.4% of the adjusted net domestic product in 1993–1994. A proper accounting framework would better reflect not only the long term value of the state's natural wealth but also its immediate contribution to the state economy in the current accounts.     

REFLECTIONS ON ENVIRONMENTAL ACCOUNTING ISSUES

The paper studies how, in the future, certain environmental concerns could possibly be addressed in the central framework of the System of National Accounts. Considering only economic (market-type) valuation and not ecological valuation. the position is taken that a number of changes to the SNA central framework may be envisaged. For example, accounting for the depletion of both renewable and non-renewable natural resources. The issue of the degradation of natural resources due to their use for disposal services and the joint loss of consumption services is more complex, volume aspects should be considered rather than simple adjustments in current value.     

驻马店市相对资源承载力分析

文章采用相对资源承载力的理论与方法,对1997～2006年的驻马店市相对土地资源承载力、相对经济资源承载力和综合资源承载力进行了分析评价。结果表明,驻马店市近10年经济的持续增长是以自然资源的不断消耗为代价。由此得出,必须转变这种增长方式,走节约资源、保护环境的可持续发展道路。