劳动份额在经济周期中的波动性及其影响效应

中国劳动份额波动与生产率波动、产出波动之间存在较强的关联性,中国劳动份额具有逆周期波动特征。本文构建了一个同时包含生产率冲击与要素收入份额冲击的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,研究中国劳动份额波动在经济周期中的影响效应,结果表明:中国劳动份额具有较大的波动性、较强的持续性以及逆周期性;本文的理论模型能够较好地模拟实际经济波动特征,在产出和消费波动上的Kydland-Prescott比率分别高达93%和91%,分别解释了投资、资本存量与劳动投入68%、58%和34%的波动,并较好地预测了消费、投资、资本存量的顺周期特征;面对劳动份额冲击,产出、投资、资本存量、生产率均会产生负向效应,消费表现出先提升后下降的动态效应,劳动投入则有所上升。     

环境与经济增长的动态均衡分析

本文以Solow增长模型为基础,在生产函数中引入环境资本这一生产要素,建立了环境Solow模型。它首先分析了资本均衡点和环境资源均衡点的存在性,而后应用非线性微分方程组的相位图分析方法对密集形式模型中的资本存量变化率和环境资本存量变化率进行动态均衡分析,得到在模型设定的条件下,经济达到均衡增长路径的条件。本文同时分析了模型中的参数对过渡期和长期经济增长的影响,并利用脉冲响应函数对结论进行了实证检验。     

一个古典-马克思经济增长模型的中国经验

目前主流的新古典增长理论存在着非正统经济学所提出的总量生产函数和边际生产力法则的虚假性质疑与逻辑悖论质疑,并丢失了古典宏观经济理论和马克思经济学所重视的收入分配与阶级分析传统。因此,一类古典-马克思经济增长模型在最近十余年发展起来并得到相当程度应用。本文利用1978-2012年中国的数据对它进行了检验,结果发现中国经济存在劳动生产率提高和资本生产率下降的"马克思有偏技术进步",该模型对中国经济的有效性成立,这意味着固定工资份额假设下,经济将会遇到实际工资率上升、长期利润率下降的"马克思趋势"。     

就业稳定增长的条件——基于马克思均衡假设的考察

以马克思扩大再生产均衡条件为基础,可以推导出一个马克思就业模型。模型表明,就业存在多个均衡点;就业资本弹性大于该部类收入资本弹性与物价收入弹性的乘积时,就业增长率会保持稳定上升。     

人民币汇率变动的收入分配效果研究——基于厂商价格加成模型的理论和实证分析

本文基于厂商价格加成模型对汇率变动的收入分配效果进行了理论分析,在此基础上,利用我国39个工业行业2002-2010年相关指标的年度数据和面板联立方程两阶段最小二乘回归,实证考察了人民币实际汇率变动对工资份额和利润份额的影响。研究发现,人民币贬值提高了利润份额、降低了工资份额,从而恶化了收入分配不公,而人民币升值则有利于改善收入分配不平等。本文表明,汇率变动对收入分配的作用效果会受企业价格加成比例和资本产出比的影响——价格加成比例的提高会削弱汇率变动的收入分配效果,而资本产出比增加会提升汇率变动的收入分配效果。     

经济波动中的收入分配与有效需求——基于1990-2007年中国数据的再检验

从资本存量与收入流量均衡的角度,本文分析了在经济波动的过程中,功能性收入分配比例的变化将会对有效需求结构产生影响,这是构成中国经济波动的内在机制.并通过实证分析,提出政府在调节经济的同时,应特别注意到有效需求问题,保持资本存量与收入流量之间的适当比例关系,并调整收入分配.这对实现国民经济平稳、快速的增长有着重要的意义.     

卡莱斯基增长模型的重新思考

鉴于卡莱斯基增长模型存在把经济增长完全归结为技术因素、只注重经济流量分析、适用范围窄等缺陷,本文将资本存量加入其中,使之成为一个可以反映市场经济关系的增长模型.同时,引入有效需求分析,得出一个重要结论:经济中收入流量时资本存量的变动,是导致有效需求不足问题的主要原因.为此,本文建议,在运用凯恩斯主义政策解决经济问题时,也必须注重对资本存量的调整.     

环境质量与经济增长:代际交叠模型下的理论分析

通过建立包含环境质量的代际交叠模型,考察了环境质量与经济增长之间的动态关系.模型既包含了环境对产出及效用的影响,也考虑了生产的外部性.分析表明,内点解下的稳态存在多重均衡,并在此基础上对均衡点进行了稳定性及比较静态分析;其次,当经济由角点解过渡到内点解时,环境质量与经济增长之间存在倒U型的关系,这可以进一步解释为何不同的环境污染问题会有不同的治理难度;最后,从福利分析角度得出,在一定条件下,资本存量的动态无效性会引起环境质量的动态无效性.     

卡菜斯基增长模型的重新思考

鉴于卡莱斯基增长模型存在把经济增长完全归结为技术因素、只注重经济流量分析、适用范围窄等缺陷，本文将资本存量加入其中，使之成为一个可以反映市场经济关系的增长模型。同时，引入有效需求分析，得出一个重要结论：经济中收入流量对资本存量的变动，是导致有效需求不足问题的主要原因。为此，本文建议，在运用凯恩斯主义政策解决经济问题时，也必须注重对资本存量的调整。     

后凯恩斯存量流量一致模型：原理与方法#br#

2007年次贷危机之后,存量流量一致模型在预测危机方面的成功使其重回宏观经济分析的主流。本文阐述了存量流量一致模型的基本原理,运用模型的资产负债表矩阵和交易流量矩阵详细分析了其会计一致性的原理;然后进一步探讨了存量流量一致模型的闭合、行为设定以及均衡求解方法;最后从模型构建的基本思路、行为设定以及均衡求解技术方面比较分析了存量流量一致模型与动态随机一般均衡模型。本文认为后凯恩斯的存量流量一致模型在货币、信贷、财富、生产和分配方面提供了一体化的处理方法,此模型能够将实体经济和货币、金融市场有机衔接,从而能够更好地分析现实经济体系中的货币政策、金融化、杠杆和收入分配等现实问题。未来存量流量一致模型的研究需要借鉴马克思关于资本配置、总劳动配置以及社会再生产正常进行的理论分析,挖掘存量流量一致模型背后的深层次根基以更好地刻画现代宏观经济的运行。     

Employee Profit-sharing and Labor Extraction in a Classical Model of Distribution and Growth

This article sets out a classical model of economic growth in which the distribution of income features the possibility of profit-sharing with workers, as firms choose periodically between two labor-extraction compensation strategies. Workers are homogeneous with regard to labor power, and firms choose to compensate them with either only a conventional wage or a share of profits on top of this conventional wage. Empirical evidence shows that labor productivity (i.e. labor extraction) in profit-sharing firms is higher than labor productivity in non-sharing firms. The frequency distribution of labor-extraction employee compensation strategies and labor productivity across firms is time-variant, being driven by satisficing imitation dynamics from which we derive two significant results. First, heterogeneity in labor-extraction compensation strategies across firms, and hence earnings inequality across workers can be a stable long-run equilibrium outcome. Second, although convergence to a long-run equilibrium may occur with either a falling or increasing proportion of profit-sharing firms, the share of net profits in income and the rates of net profit, capital accumulation and economic growth nevertheless all converge to the highest possible long-run equilibrium values.     

Growth with many agents and wages paid ex ante

In this paper, we consider a one-sector model of economic growth with several infinitely-lived heterogeneous agents, who are endowed with diverse discount factors as well as preferences over consumption. In line with the classical Ramsey model, agents are not allowed to borrow against future income. Unlike the traditional assumption of ex post wage payment, wages are paid ex ante in our model. We first explain the difference between the assumptions of wages being paid ex ante and wages being paid ex post in the framework of a simple illustrative two-class model. Our main result shows that in contrast to the many-agent Ramsey model with ex post wage payment, the capital stock sequence converges to the steady state stock irrespective of production technology employed by the firms. Further, all impatient agents own zero capital stock, whereas the most patient agent owns the entire capital stock from some time onward. Thus, we have shown that a slight modification in the timing of wage payment in growth models can lead to significant changes in the stability properties of equilibrium dynamics.     

Resource abundance,market size,and the choice of technology

How resource abundance and market size affect the choice of increasing returns technologies is studied in an overlapping‐generations general equilibrium model in which manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition. The model is surprisingly tractable. First, for the steady state, the wage rate, the level of technology, and capital stock are not affected by the amount of natural resources. An increase in the share of agricultural revenue going to natural resources leads to a lower wage rate and firms choose less advanced technologies. Second, an increase in market size increases the equilibrium wage rate, level of technology, and capital stock. Finally, other things equal, a country with a lower endowment of natural resources or a higher market size has a comparative advantage in producing the manufactured good.     

最低工资制度能提高民营企业劳动收入占比吗

本文以民营企业要素投入行为为切入点,探讨最低工资制度对民营企业劳动收入占比的影响。基于2005-2008年和2011-2013年中国工业企业数据库民营企业面板数据的研究发现：最低工资制度提高了劳动密集型和资本密集型行业民营企业的劳动收入占比,降低了技术密集型民营企业的劳动收入占比。通过分解影响机制发现,最低工资制度提高了劳动密集型和资本密集型民营企业的工资水平,带来正向的收入效应,但也导致资本替代劳动,产生负向的替代效应。整体而言,最低工资制度提高了民营企业的劳动收入占比。为发挥最低工资制度对民营企业劳动收入占比的正向作用,继续调整最低工资标准、贯彻相关法规实施、提高劳动者技能水平成为重要措施。     

The Finnish Corporate Income Tax Reform and the Financial Strategy of Firms: A General Equilibrium Approach

This paper simulates the effects of the recent Finnish corporate tax reform with a computable general equilibrium model. It shows that the impact of the reform on the capital stock depends on the reactions of firms. If the financial strategy is changed to prefer dividend distribution and share issues, the cost of capital falls and the capital stock increases. On the other hand, if the criterion of financial policy is to minimise the welfare loss of current shareholders, the earlier financial behaviour should be continued. In that case,the induced higher cost of capital leads to a lower capital stock. The overall welfare evaluation of the tax reform is not sensitive to the regime shift: the reform should not have been implemented. This is because the increase in interest income taxation distorts saving decisions, expands the net foreign debt of the economy and weakens the terms of trade.     

我国职工工资增长因素的实证分析——基于七省市PDM模型

针对近年来“经济高增长但工资低增长”的问题,即劳动要素分配份额不断下降的问题,本文基于2004年至2010年中国统计年鉴关于职工平均工资指数、地区生产总值指数、消费者物价指数、劳动力就业指数以及人力资本投资指数的时间序列以及横截面数据的收集整理,建立计量经济面板数据模型(PDM),提出了一套考察我国职工工资增长的影响因素及其大小的评价方法.并根据模型分析结果,提出了在确保一定经济增长速度的条件下应因地制宜地积极推进收入倍增计划、完善工资保障和补贴制度、建立健全工资谈判机制、加大人力资本投入、协调收入增长与经济增长关系等五项政策建议.     

Gender gap,capital accumulation and the demographic transition

This paper focuses on explaining the demographic transition and some of the broad patterns that are associated with it. We present an endogenous growth model that incorporates altruism and son preference within the family as well as gender wage gap and gender wage discrimination in the labour market. We show that with the accumulation of physical capital and human capital, the output share of mental labour increases and the gender wage gap narrows. In the early stages of economic development, gender discrimination is becoming prevalent and the substitution effect of capital accumulation, which raises the cost of child rearing, is dominated by the income effect, so the growth rate of population increases with income. When the degree of gender wage discrimination starts to decline, the increased cost of child rearing induces families to invest more in the human capital of children and the growth rate of the population falls. The quantitative analysis shows that gender wage discrimination is indeed an important contributor to the demographic transition.     

Union Wage Setting and Capital Income Taxation in Dynamic General Equilibrium

This paper concerns the effects of capital income taxation in a dynamic general equilibrium framework with union wage setting, when households face taxes related to both labor and capital. One purpose is to characterize the general equilibrium solution. Another is to study the effects of increased capital income taxation – in terms of the responses in real wages, employment, capital stock, output and consumption – and relate these behavioral responses to the overall tax structure. We also derive a cost–benefit rule for the purpose of analyzing the welfare effects of a small shift from labor income taxation to capital income taxation.     

Capital and saving in a share economy

Weitzman is correct in his claim that, in long-run equilibrium, the capital stock will be identical in wage and share systems. But a corollary of Weitzman's excess demand for labor in the short run is that the firm is holding too much capital at any given moment. The reduction in demand for capital goods following a shock might create a new channel for the accelerator. A share system also exposes workers to increased capital risk.     

The Choice of Technology and Equilibrium Wage Rigidity

In this general equilibrium model, firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose increasing returns technologies to maximize profits. Capital and labor are the two factors of production. The existence of efficiency wages leads to unemployment. The model is able to explain some interesting observations of the labor market. First, even though there is neither long-term labor contract nor costs of wage adjustment, wage rigidity is an equilibrium phenomenon: an increase in the exogenous job separation rate, the size of the population, the cost of exerting effort, and the probability that shirking is detected will not change the equilibrium wage rate. Second, the equilibrium wage rate increases with the level of capital stock. Third, a higher level of capital stock does not necessarily reduce the unemployment rate. That is, there is no monotonic relationship between capital accumulation and the unemployment rate.