Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: What does it tell us about the crisis?

In this paper we construct financial conditions indices (FCIs) for the euro area, for the period 2003 to 2011, using a wide range of prices, quantities, spreads and survey data, grounded in the theoretical literature. One FCI includes monetary policy variables, whilst two versions without monetary policy are also constructed, enabling us to study the impact of monetary policy on financial conditions. The FCIs constructed fit in well with a narrative of financial conditions since the creation of the monetary union. FCIs for individual euro area countries are also provided, with a view to comparing financial conditions in core and periphery countries. There is evidence of significant divergence both before and during the crisis, which becomes less pronounced when monetary policy variables are included in the FCI. However, the impact of monetary policy on financial conditions appears not to be entirely symmetric across the euro area.     

IS THE VIEW FROM THE EUROTOWER PURELY EUROPEAN? – NATIONAL DIVERGENCE AND ECB INTEREST RATE POLICY

The official view on ECB monetary policy claims that decisions are based on euro zone data and that diverging regional developments are disregarded. To test empirically whether regional developments have an impact on ECB decisions we develop a generalised monetary policy reaction function which allows for an influence of regional divergence. Reaction function estimations and a probit model of interest rate decisions for the first years of the euro area offer some first support for an impact of regional divergence. The results clarify that ignoring a potential national perspective may lead to biased estimates for the ECB reaction function.     

The transmission of euro area monetary policy to financially euroized countries

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the interest rate pass-through of euro area monetary policy to retail rates outside the euro area, contributing to the literature on the consequences of unofficial financial euroization and on the transmission channels of monetary policy spillovers. The results suggest that in the long run, more than the one-third of all euro retail rates in euroized countries of central, eastern, and south-eastern Europe is linked to the euro area shadow rate. Compared with euro area monetary policy, the share of cointegration of the domestic monetary policy rate is on average lower, suggesting that domestic central banks in euroized countries with independent monetary policy can only partially control the “euro part” of the interest rate channel. Furthermore, euro area monetary policy shocks are fast and persistently transmitted into euro retail rates outside the euro area, which constitutes an additional channel of international shock transmission.     

On the Empirical Evidence of the Intertemporal Current Account Model for the Euro Area Countries

A simple intertemporal current account model is found to explain successfully the current account configuration in the euro area before the Great Recession. The analysis suggests that consumption smoothing, prompted by expectations of economic convergence and the removal of exchange rate risk, has been an important driving force for the build‐up of current account divergence in the euro area since the creation of monetary union. The model also predicts that current account deficits and surpluses would narrow under a post‐crisis scenario of moderate catching‐up and more segmented bond markets.     

Examining asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area: Evidence from a mixed cross-section global VAR model

I estimate the transmission of a common euro area monetary policy shock across individual euro area economies. To do so, I develop a global VAR model in which all euro area economies are included individually while, at the same time, their common monetary policy is modelled as a function of euro area aggregate output growth and inflation. The results suggest that the transmission of monetary policy across euro area economies displays asymmetries, and that, in line with economic theory, these are driven by differences in economies׳ structural characteristics. In particular, euro area economies in which a higher share of aggregate output is accounted for by sectors servicing interest rate sensitive demand exhibit a stronger transmission of monetary policy to real activity. Similarly, even though the evidence is less conclusive, euro area economies which feature more real wage and/or fewer unemployment rigidities also appear to display a stronger transmission of monetary policy to real activity.     

Sectoral Energy- and Labour-Productivity Convergence

This paper empirically investigates the development of cross-country differences in energy- and labour productivity. The analysis is performed at a detailed sectoral level for 14 OECD countries, covering the period 1970–1997. A σ-convergence analysis reveals that the development over time of the cross-country variation in productivity performance differs across sectors as well as across different levels of aggregation. Both patterns of convergence as well as divergence are found. Cross-country variation of productivity levels is typically larger for energy than for labour. A β-convergence analysis provides support for the hypothesis that in most sectors lagging countries tend to catch up with technological leaders, in particular in terms of energy productivity. Moreover, the results show that convergence is conditional, meaning that productivity levels converge to country-specific steady states. Energy prices and wages are shown to positively affect energy- and labour-productivity growth, respectively. We also find evidence for the importance of economies of scale, whereas the investment share, openness and specialization play only a modest role in explaining cross-country variation in energy- and labour-productivity growth.      

New technologies and productivity growth in the euro area

This paper provides an overview of the available evidence on the importance of information and communication technologies (ICT) for developments in average labour productivity (ALP) growth in the euro area. The contribution of ICT to ALP growth is found to have increased both in terms of production and investment over the 1990s (up to 2001). However, there is no evidence of significant positive spillover effects from the use of ICT on ALP growth. This implies that there is no reason to believe that potential output growth in the euro area has increased significantly in recent years on account of new technologies. Comparing developments in the euro area and the United States, it appears, however, that ICT capital cannot account for much of the difference in ALP developments over the 1990s. This suggests that cyclical developments and, in particular, the structure of the economy are more important for explaining the difference in performance.First version received: March 2002/Final version received: May 2003We thank Bart van Ark, Neale Kennedy, Gerard Korteweg, Ad van Riet, Marcel Timmer, two anonymous referees and participants at the 17th Congress of the European Economic Association, Venice August 2002 for their comments. All errors and omissions remain ours, of course. We thank Erikos Velissaratos for his help in acquiring data on investment in ICT and Colin Webb for providing us with the OECD STAN database. This paper represents the views of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the European Central Bank, the European Commission or their staff.     

The money demand and the loss of interest for the euro in Romania

We generalize a money demand micro-founded model to explain Romanians’ recent loss of interest for the euro. We show that the reason behind this loss of interest is a severe decline in the relative degree of the euro liquidity against that of the Romanian leu. Our empirical findings also suggest that the two currencies are rather complements than substitutes, providing thus evidence for a reduced level of monetary integration of Romania with the Euro area. These results put into question the interest for the euro adoption in the next period.     

Assessing independent monetary policy in small, open and euroized countries: evidence from Western Balkan

This article approaches to the optimum currency area from the empirical side by investigating the costs of adoption of a single currency for small, open and euroized Western Balkan countries (WBC). Using several econometric techniques, this study attempts to answer three questions relevant for monetary integration of the WBC and similar transition countries: What are the constraints on an independent monetary policy? What is the need for operating an independent monetary policy? and What is the ability to conduct an independent monetary policy? The constraints on independent monetary policy in most of the WBC at this stage are relatively serious because of high levels of openness and euroization. They limit the ability of the central bank, which is oriented to price stability, to use the nominal exchange rate for achieving other goals (for example, output stabilization). Regarding the second question, the results from structural VAR framework suggest a low synchronization for supply and demand shocks between the WBC and the euro area, indicating potentially high costs of losing independent monetary policy. Furthermore, the results from Kalman filter technique inform that the shock convergence process is slow or absent in the WBC vis-à-vis the euro area. Regarding the last question, the results from cointegration and VAR analysis suggest that the ability to conduct an independent monetary policy, assessed by analyzing the interest rate channel as the most prominent transmission channel in the euro area, is relatively weak in the WBC.     

The transmission of business cyclesImplications for EMU enlargement1

We show that countries characterized by large bilateral trade and financial flows tend to have more correlated business cycles. However, we also find that countries with divergent fiscal policies and highly regulated labour markets are subject to idiosyncratic cycles. Applying these results to the new member states of the EU weakens the optimistic view towards the monetary integration of these countries into the euro area, which is frequently found in the literature. Although our results suggest that extensive trade and financial linkages are likely to result in further increases in business cycle correlation, an increase in labour market regulation and the pursuit of national fiscal policies may result in a counteracting effect.     

Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012

In order to examine productivity waves and convergence processes, we study productivity trends, trend breaks, and levels for 13 advanced countries between 1890 and 2012. We highlight two productivity waves, a big one following the second industrial revolution and a smaller one following the ICT revolution. The convergence process has been erratic, halted by inappropriate institutions, technology shocks, financial crises, and above all wars, which led to major productivity level leaps, downwards for countries experiencing war on their soil, and upwards for other countries. Productivity trend breaks have been identified following wars, global financial crises, global supply shocks, and major policy changes. The upward trend break for the U.S. in the mid‐1990s has been confirmed, as has the downward trend break for the euro area in the same period.     

Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy

This paper looks at the relation between exchange rates and monetary policy. It focuses in particular on the role of the exchange rate of the euro in the context of the ECB's monetary policy strategy. The objective of monetary policy is to maintain price stability. The euro area is a large and relatively closed economy. Therefore, the exchange rate of the euro is not an intermediate target nor is it an objective. Nevertheless, the ECB's stability–oriented monetary policy strategy does not neglect the exchange rate of the euro. Clearly, exchange rate developments are taken into account both when looking at the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and when assessing the current economic situation and prospects for the euro area.     

Real convergence in Europe: A cluster analysis

In this paper we analyse real convergence in GDP per worker in the EU member states. The aim is to test whether there is evidence of club convergence in the EU, i.e. divergence in GDP per worker. Evidence in favour of cluster or club convergence may be an indication of significant productivity divergences between countries, which may also explain the current turmoil in the euro zone. The results show evidence of different economic growth rates within Europe, which also converge to different steady states, implying divergence in the EU-14. Within the EU-14 member states we observe two convergence clubs, which are not related to the fact that some countries belong to the euro area. Furthermore, Eastern European countries are also divided in two clubs, with a more direct effect of belonging to the euro zone in the composition of the clubs.     

Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy

In this study, we perform a quantitative assessment of the role of money as an indicator variable for monetary policy in the euro area. We document the magnitude of revisions to euro area-wide data on output, prices, and money, and find that monetary aggregates have a potentially significant role in providing information about current real output. We then proceed to analyze the information content of money in a forward-looking model in which monetary policy is optimally determined subject to incomplete information about the true state of the economy. We show that monetary aggregates may have substantial information content in an environment with high variability of output measurement errors, low variability of money demand shocks, and a strong contemporaneous linkage between money demand and real output. As a practical matter, however, we conclude that money has fairly limited information content as an indicator of contemporaneous aggregate demand in the euro area.     

The transmission of bank capital requirements and monetary policy to bank lending in Germany

We investigate the transmission of changes in bank capital requirements and monetary policy, and their interaction, on German banks’ corporate loan growth and lending rates. Our results show that increases in capital requirements are associated with an immediate decrease in total domestic and cross‐border bank lending. Changes in the euro area's monetary policy stance are positively related to corporate loan interest rates in general. Regarding the interacting effect of national bank capital requirements and euro area monetary policy, we observe that the transmission of accommodative euro area monetary policy to corporate lending rates can be attenuated by contemporaneous increases in bank capital requirements. Moreover, more strongly capitalized banks increase their loan growth in response to accommodative monetary policy whereas, for weaker banks, increasing capital requirements implies a decrease in their corporate loan growth. Our results confirm a tradeoff between higher capital requirements and accommodating monetary policy originating from banks’ capital constraints.     

Assessing the losses in euro area potential productivity due to the financial crisis

In this article, we show that the recent financial crisis has significantly affected the potential total factor productivity (TFP) of the four largest euro area economies, as well as that of the rest of the euro area. We used a reduced-form equation of TFP, based on an approach recently developed by Cahn and Saint-Guilhem (2010). Our empirical findings show that the permanent impact on potential TFP varies across countries from –3.9 points to –1.3 points in Q2 2012. When these losses are incorporated, TFP gaps develop closely in line with capacity utilization rates (CUR). Moreover, in the case of France, including CUR in our TFP model improves the quasi-real-time reliability of TFP gap estimates.     

Transmission effects of the U.S. and China monetary policy shocks on the world

This paper applies the Markov-switching model to analyse the transition probabilities and generalized method of moments (GMM) with Newey–West heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance estimators (HAC) to examine the continuity of monetary policies in different countries when the U.S. and China change their monetary policies. Our results indicate that the euro area’s monetary authority continues to increase/decrease their money supply to stimulate/depress the economy. In Japan, long-term economic recession motivated the Japanese government to maintain a loose money supply. The continuity of Korea’s monetary policy in expansionary states lasts up to 5.1 years. Besides, the outcomes show the implementation of U.S. quantitative easing (QE), overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP), and Chinese RRP policies have significant spillover effects on other nations. Particularly, the effects on the euro area are the largest. Furthermore, although the monetary policies of China and the euro area seem to move in opposite directions, they are interdependent.     

Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries

This note looks at the correlation of short‐term business cycles in the euro area and the EU accession countries. The issue is assessed with the help of vector autoregressive models. There are clear differences in the degree of correlation between accession countries. For Hungary and Slovenia, euro area shocks can explain a large share of variation in industrial production, while for some countries this influence is much smaller. For the latter countries, the results imply that joining the monetary union could entail reasonably large costs, unless their business cycles converge closer to the euro area cycle. Generally, for smaller countries the relative influence of the euro area business cycle is larger. Also, it is found that the most advanced accession countries are at least as integrated with the euro area business cycle as some small present member countries of the monetary union. JEL classification: E32, F15, F42.     

The (in)stability of money demand in the euro area: lessons from a cross-country analysis

The instability of standard money demand functions has undermined the role of monetary aggregates for monetary policy analysis in the euro area. This paper uses country-specific monetary aggregates to shed more light on the economics behind the instability of euro area money demand. Our results obtained from panel estimation indicate that the observed instability of standard money demand functions could be explained by omitted variables like e.g. technological progress that are important for money demand but constant across member countries.     

欧债危机成因与前景的制度分析

希腊等欧元区国家的主权债务危机可以说是欧洲区域一体化建设中的独特现象,其折射的是欧元区所存在的一个结构性问题：奉行单一货币政策和各国分散的财政政策,集中暴露出了欧洲货币一体化与欧洲福利资本主义的不相容、以及统一货币运行所要求的财政紧缩与欧元成员国经济增长和福利制度之间的矛盾与冲突;欧元不会就此瓦解,但欧债问题的最终解决困难重重;欧元的未来取决于自由与市场的回归欧洲,取决于欧盟的制度完善与欧式福利资本主义改革的成功与否。