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1.
菲利普斯曲线:理论与模型的动态演变与评论   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
菲利普斯曲线提供了把失业与通货膨胀关联起来的方程式,填补了凯恩斯理论中的通货膨胀缺口,成为凯恩斯宏观经济模型的重要组成部分。在预期方式的不同、价格调整的方法不同、货币经济等约束条件下,菲利普斯曲线产生了不同的模型形式,具体可以划分为传统的菲利普斯曲线、后顾菲利普斯曲线和新菲利普斯曲线三个阶段,并且每个阶段在不同的假设条件下又包含几种不同的曲线形式。这些形式是对原始的菲利普斯曲线模型的补充和发展,丰富了菲利普斯曲线模型,加强了模型对实际的解释能力和理论基础。同时需要注意的是,建立在西方经济假设条件下的菲利普斯曲线,在中国二元经济条件下的应用,则要做修正和补充。  相似文献   

2.
基于中国1978-2008年31个省市的动态面板数据,运用系统广义矩估计方法,分别考察了传统的菲利普斯曲线、新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线和混合菲利普斯曲线在中国的适用性及稳健性。结果表明三种类型的菲利普斯曲线在中国省际动态面板数据意义上都是成立的,且都是稳健的。政策含义是,政策制定需高度重视人们对通货膨胀率的前瞻性预期。  相似文献   

3.
关于菲利普斯曲线研究的评述   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
菲利普斯曲线自提出以来,就受到了凯恩斯主义经济学家的高度重视,同时也受到了反凯恩斯主义学派的反对,围绕菲利普斯曲线,凯恩斯学派和反凯恩斯学派的争论从没有停止。以弗里德曼为首的货币主义学派认为短期菲利普斯曲线有效而长期无效,理性预期学派从根本上否认了菲利普斯曲线的存在。该文系统梳理了围绕菲利普斯曲线的争论,评价了各种学派的观点,认为菲利普斯曲线只是说明通货膨胀和失业的相关性,并不意味着二者是因果关系,通货膨胀和失业的原因是不一致的。  相似文献   

4.
中国经济转轨时期的菲利普斯曲线   总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7  
本文尝试用长期菲利普斯曲线的环形曲线模型来解释我国经济体制转轨以来的菲利普斯曲线的变动情况。探讨我国菲利普斯曲线变动的原因,分析我国菲利普斯曲线的变动与经济周期的关系。对今后一段内我国菲利普斯曲线的变动趋势作出预测,进而提出适宜的宏观经济政策思路。当然,由于众所周知的原因,我国的失业率被公认为低于真实的失业水平,但这并不影响菲利普斯曲线的总趋势。  相似文献   

5.
菲利普斯曲线是衡量失业率与通货膨胀率之间关系的一条曲线,本文简略概述了菲利普斯曲线的提出和发展历程,并且运用最新的中国数据对简单的菲利普斯曲线进行了实证研究,并对结果进行了一定的分析.  相似文献   

6.
重新认识菲利普斯曲线的真正价值   总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13  
崔建军 《经济学家》2003,50(1):86-92
菲利普斯曲线的真正价值不在于失业率与通胀率之间的置换关系而在于对经济运行态势的勾勒。短期菲利普斯曲线可分为六种类型,长期菲利普斯曲线则极不规则,就实现宏观调控而言,研究短期菲利普斯曲线更有意义。  相似文献   

7.
菲利普斯曲线帮助人们更清晰地了解失业与通货膨胀的关系。为解决人们对该曲线知识的进一步探求,本文将结合菲利普斯曲线的相关知识,研究该统计曲线的多模态性质,构建菲利普斯曲线多模态符号的分析方法,本文意在提升人们运用菲利普斯曲线解决社会科学问题的认识水平。  相似文献   

8.
任梦睿 《生产力研究》2013,(12):18-19,50
文章首先介绍了货币主义与新古典学派对传统菲利普斯曲线的争论。20世纪70年代"滞胀"的出现使依据传统菲利普斯曲线所做的政策受到质疑,传统菲利普斯曲线稳定性也遭到质疑,这时出现了附加预期的菲利普斯曲线。又分别对货币主义的自然失业率假说和加速通货膨胀理论;新古典学派的理性预期与稳定政策无效性学说作了评价。  相似文献   

9.
菲尔普斯在承认传统的菲利普斯曲线短期存在的情况下在价格和工资粘性假设、自然失业率假说和适应性预期或理性预期假设的基础上对附加预期菲利普斯曲线做了更深入的研究.提出长期菲利普斯曲线存在的形式,这一成果弥补了传统菲利普斯曲线时间上的限制,改变了人们长期以来对通货膨胀和失业之间关系的传统认识,加深了人们对经济政策对经济的长期影响与短期影响关系的理解。  相似文献   

10.
宋永利 《经济论坛》2005,(10):31-32
一、从短期总供给曲线到菲利普斯曲线 政策的动态不一致性与通胀和自然产出率、或者是自然失业率彼此的交替关系有关。这就是著名的菲利普斯曲线,它是从短期总供给曲线推导出来的。短期总供给曲线:YF=YN α(P—P^e),现在我们由此推导菲利普斯曲线。  相似文献   

11.
This paper examines the theory of the Phillips curve, focusing on the distinction between “formation” of inflation expectations and “incorporation” of inflation expectations. Phillips curve theory has largely focused on the former. Explaining the Phillips curve by reference to expectation formation keeps Phillips curve theory in the policy orbit of natural rate thinking where there is no welfare justification for higher inflation even if there is a permanent inflation–unemployment trade-off. Explaining the Phillips curve by reference to incorporation of inflation expectations breaks that orbit and provides a welfare economics rationale for Keynesian activist policies that reduce unemployment at the cost of higher inflation.  相似文献   

12.
This article evaluates various models’ predictive power for U.S. inflation rate using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. The starting point is the traditional unemployment Phillips curve. We show that a factor Phillips curve model is superior to the traditional Phillips curve, and its performance is comparable to other factor models. We find that a factor AR model is superior to the factor Phillips curve model, and is the best bivariate or factor model at longer horizons. Finally, we investigate a New Keynesian Phillips curve model, and find that its forecasting performance dominates all other models at the longer horizons.  相似文献   

13.
This paper formally tests for time variation in the slope of the Phillips curve using a variety of measures of inflation expectations and real economic slack. We find that time variation in the slope of the Phillips curve depends on the measure of inflation expectations rather than the measure of real economic slack. We find strong evidence in support of the time-varying slopes of the Phillips curve with different measures of inflation expectations. Thus, we conclude that the slope of the Phillips curve is time-varying.  相似文献   

14.
张勇 《财经研究》2008,34(6):131-143
文章以1994年前后的价格冲击下人民银行将适应性政策转变为非适应性政策这一事件为背景,考察了公众对政策可信性的变动及其对通胀预期形成方式和菲利普斯曲线稳定性的影响。我们首先在理性预期假定下设定引入政策可信性变量的菲利普斯曲线模型。通过对"产出-物价"曲线的判断,SVAR模型中通胀冲击下通胀和产出缺口的响应函数以及菲利普斯曲线模型的递归最小二乘法检验,得出我国公众对政策的可信性增加,进而导致其通胀预期形成方式中的前向参照政策信息的成分增加,菲利普斯曲线发生改变。这就意味着,如果人民银行试图维持通胀预期形成方式和菲利普斯曲线的稳定,就应该保证政策可信性具有稳定性,而且,从长期实现价格稳定目标的角度来看,人民银行还应不断提高这一政策的可信性。  相似文献   

15.
The Phillips curve has generally been estimated in a linear framework. This paper investigates the possibility that the Phillips curve is indeed a curve, and shows that a convex short-run Phillips curve may be a more accurate representation of reality than the traditionally used linear specification. The paper also discusses the policy implications of convexity in the Phillips curve. These include the need for policy to be forward looking and to act pre-emptively. Convexity provides a strong rationale for stabilization policy, and it reinforces the need for policy makers to proceed cautiously. It also implies that deep recessions may have only a marginally greater disinflationary impact than shallower ones, unless they induce large credibility bonuses.  相似文献   

16.
This article examines inflation dynamics in Europe. Econometric specification tests with pooled European data are used to compare the empirical performance of the New Classical, New Keynesian and Hybrid specifications of the Phillips curve. Instead of imposing any specific form of expectations formation, direct measures, i.e. Consensus Economics survey data are used to proxy economic agents’ inflation expectations. According to the results, the New Classical Phillips curve has satisfactory statistical properties. Moreover, the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve is clearly outperformed by the New Classical and Hybrid Phillips curves. We interpret our results as indicating that the European inflation process is not purely forward looking and inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to changes in expectations. Consequently, even allowing for possible nonrationality in expectations results in a lagged inflation term entering the New Keynesian Phillips curve for inflation dynamics in Europe.  相似文献   

17.
《Research in Economics》2020,74(1):26-62
As the US labor market has tightened beyond full employment with relatively little evidence of inflation pressure, observers are increasingly inclined to declare the demise of the Phillips curve, that is, the flattening of its slope to zero. This paper reviews a substantial range of empirical evidence on this point, by assessing the performance of the conventional expectations-augmented Phillips curve for both prices and wages, based on both historical macro or national level data and panel data for states and MSAs (cities). National data going back to the 1950s and 60s yield strong evidence of negative slopes and significant nonlinearity in those slopes, with slopes much steeper in tight labor markets than in easy labor markets. This evidence of both slope and nonlinearity weakens dramatically based on macro data since the 1980s for the price Phillips curve, but not the wage Phillips curve. However, the endogeneity of monetary policy and the lack of variation of the unemployment gap, which has few episodes of being substantially below zero in this sample period, makes the price Phillips curve estimates from this period less reliable. At the same time, state level and MSA level data since the 1980s yield significant evidence of both negative slope and nonlinearity in the Phillips curve. The difference between national and city/state results in recent decades can be explained by the success that monetary policy has had in quelling inflation and anchoring inflation expectations since the 1980s. We also review the experience of the 1960s, the last time inflation expectations became unanchored, and observe both parallels and differences with today. Our analysis suggests that reports of the death of the Phillips curve may be greatly exaggerated.  相似文献   

18.
The flattening of the Phillips curve is a vigorously investigated phenomenon in many advanced economies. Still little evidence has been presented for emerging, small open economies facing persistently low inflation. In this paper I address this issue through rigorous estimation of a substantial number of stylized, open-economy hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curves for Poland. I find robust evidence of the flattening of the Phillips curve and the rising impact of external factors for both headline and core inflation. I conclude that during excessive disinflation in Poland the flattening of the Phillips curve can be partly explained by the underutilization of labour, whereas the stronger impact of global factors on core inflation suggests strengthening indirect effects. The changes in the estimated parameters indicate that the macroeconomic cost of bringing inflation back to the desired target has increased. Further identification of the reasons behind the flattening of the Phillips curve in an emerging, small open economy should provide useful insights for monetary policy.  相似文献   

19.
Modern theories of inflation incorporate a vertical long-run Phillips curve and are usually estimated using techniques that ignore the non-stationary behaviour of inflation. Consequently, the estimates obtained are imprecise and unable to test the veracity of a vertical long-run Phillips curve. We estimate a Phillips curve model taking into account the non-stationary properties in inflation and identify a small but significant positive relationship between inflation and unemployment. The results also provide some evidence that the trade-off between inflation and the rate of unemployment in the short-run worsens as the mean rate of inflation increases.  相似文献   

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