Diminishing Returns: Carbon Market Crisis and the Future of Market-Dependent Climate Change Finance

The current and future costs of meeting climate change mitigation needs in the global South vastly exceed levels of available funding from public sources in the North. As a possible solution to this problem, policy-makers and various observers have pushed increasingly for the adoption of market-based carbon financing strategies, with the United Nations Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) representing the most consistent application of this approach to date. Nevertheless, market-based carbon finance remains highly volatile given its heavy dependence on conditions in the broader global carbon market which remains in the throes of a devastating crisis, earning carbon the distinction of 2011s worst performing global commodity. By demonstrating that it is through carbon's market price that finance-generating investment in the CDM is largely derived, and which also determines the ex post value of CDM projects, this paper argues for the decoupling of climate change finance from carbon's market value. The need to do so is particularly pressing since, it is argued, the current crisis in the global carbon market reflects an embedded crisis tendency in that market, born in part from the political machinations through which it was born and which leaves it prone to persisting crises of oversupply.     

The 2008/09 Economic Crisis: The Impact on Psychological Well-Being in the USA

The 2008/09 economic crisis has been the worst crisis of capitalism since the Great Depression. The causes and implications of the so-called “Great Recession” have been widely documented, but the effects of the crisis on psychological well-being have only received limited attention. Using state-level data, this paper aims to assess empirically the impact of the 2008/09 crisis on several indicators of mental health in the USA. The results indicate that unemployment and income levels have a significant and detrimental impact on mental health. This implies that social protection systems—and in particular labor market programs—play a paramount role in reducing the adverse impact of the crisis on mental health.     

Capital flows to an emerging financial market in Turkey

Increased globalization in financial markets implies that the percentage of all shares under foreign ownership in domestic stock markets has been rising. Speculative attacks on the foreign exchange market in February 2001 led to deep economic crisis in Turkey. This article will explore various indicators of the financial crisis in Turkey based on a macro-model. The foreign share of the domestic economy is a key variable to establish the degree of vulnerability during a financial crisis. An empirical investigation shows that the percentage of shares owned by foreigners on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) has been increasing since 1995 and is currently about 50 percent of the total. Furthermore, the general index of stock market prices in 1999 was at its highest level since 1995. This would imply that the general price index of the stock market is another strong indicator of an impending financial crisis. An empirical investigation of Turkish data based on a theoretical model is presented in this paper. An unexpected capital outflow would certainly cause exchange rate fluctuations, balance of payments problems, and international debt crisis. Hot money inflows boost share prices and keep the real exchange rate high. However, short-term stay of capital implies a sudden capital outflow that creates financial crisis, which results in international debt crisis. This in turn leads to a further increase in loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Relatively high stock market prices may suggest an impending financial crisis. Using Turkish stock market price data, an impending financial crisis can be statistically predicted.     

PREDICTING CURRENCY CRISES WITH A NESTED LOGIT MODEL

Abstract.  This paper is the first to apply a nested logit model to measure the probabilities of speculative attacks and the probabilities of successful defences by the central banks. This model allows us to predict the probability not only of speculative attacks but also of successful defences, given attacks. It also provides a framework for analysing the degree to which different factors affect the likelihood of attacks and defences. We find strong evidence that external illiquidity and financial fragility are reliable predictors of currency crises. The results shed light on the validity of the three generations of currency crisis models.     

The Asian Currency Crises: Vulnerability, Contagion, or Unsustainability

The Asian currency crises have been introduced by many economists as evidence that almost any country could be vulnerable to speculative attacks and to contagion effects, even with apparently good economic fundamentals. These financial crises have also been interpreted by other economists as rational market reactions to the unsustainability of domestic macroeconomic policies or structural weaknesses. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the relative importance of macroeconomic unsustainability, financial vulnerability, and crisis contagion in a model that explains and predicts the Asian currency crises. Out-of-sample forecasts based on two-stage panel and logit regressions provide evidence of a pure contagion effect, which significantly worsened the crises. They also show that Indonesia was the only one of the six Asian nations examined (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand) that was in an unsustainable economic situation, and that the other five nations were only vulnerable to a currency crisis.     

Productivity dynamics and the cleansing effect of two recessions: Evidence from the manufacturing sector in Korea

In general, recessions provoke the exit of a greater number of firms from the market. Less productive firms are more likely to exit and release their former resources to the remaining, more productive firms. The present study investigates two recessions in Korea: the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis. The main objective of the present study is to analyse the process of creative destruction in a recession, specifically the cleansing effect. We measured total factor productivity using micro‐level manufacturing plant data from 1993 to 2013. We decomposed the source of the changes in total factor productivity to measure the cleansing effect in two large recessions. During the first recession in the 1990s, there was no evidence to support a cleansing effect hypothesis. In contrast, during the second recession in the 2000s, there was evidence of a cleansing effect. In addition, we found differences in market selection criteria in the two recessions; by the second crisis, the market selection criteria had changed to enable a more conducive environment for the creative destruction process.     

Testing for rational bubbles in the US housing market

The presence of a bubble in the US housing market prior to the 2007 subprime mortgage financial crisis is investigated. This is done by looking into the relationship between house prices and rental prices, known as the price–rent ratio, which is an important measure of a potential deviation between house prices and its fundamental value. Additionally, the interest rate is taken into account since it is an important factor in determining demand for housing mortgages and thereby influencing house prices, and explosive behavior of house prices is considered. These relationships are investigated through a theoretical and econometrical framework. The empirical evidence suggests that there was a bubble in the housing market prior to the financial crisis, even when controlling for the decreasing interest rate and the fundamental information given by the rental price in the period. Explosiveness was the main source of the price increase, such that a bubble was present in the housing market after correcting for other fundamental factors. The econometric procedures used in the analysis may therefore be relevant for monitoring the housing market.     

基于金融危机视角的资本市场政府管制研究——兼评政府审计“免疫系统论”

当前,金融危机远未见底,发生金融危机的重要原因之一是政府管制的措施跟不上资本市场金融创新的发展,导致资产证券化缺乏透明度,金融衍生品投资过度形成巨大泡沫。面对国际金融危机,中国应充分有效地发挥政府审计“免疫系统”功能,增强对资本市场的预警作用,及时发现并规范、化解和控制金融风险,为金融与经济的和谐稳定发展发挥效力。     

On the detection of extreme movements and persistent behaviour in Mediterranean stock markets: a wavelet-based approach

We combine the global Hurst exponent and Morlet wavelet multi-resolution analysis (MRA) to investigate the dynamic behaviour of six selected stock markets in the Mediterranean region. Specifically, we employ the resonance coefficients and their power spectra to identify potential extreme movements and long-term dependence in stock returns. Using weekly data for the period 2005 to 2010, our results reveal that the wavelet MRA is able to reconstruct the effects of major extreme shocks on stock returns of studied markets, such as the Asian financial crisis, the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the 2007–2009 financial crisis. Moreover, the wavelet-based global Hurst exponent indicates the presence of long-term dependencies in stock returns of all the considered markets, except for France where the anti-persistent behaviour is detected. Overall, our findings are useful to assess the stock market efficiency and provide new insights into stock market dynamics over different time scales.     

Dancing Spreads: Market Assessment of Contagion from the Crisis in the Euro Periphery based on Distress Dependence Analysis

The crisis in the eurozone periphery has so far affected markets substantially more than the size of the countries in the region would suggest. Data on direct exposures and simple correlations also fail to explain the cross-border impact of the crisis. Following Segoviano (2006), this paper uses distress dependence analysis to measure market assessment of contagion risks from Greece and Ireland to the rest of Europe during the peaks of the crises in these countries. The results provide insights to possible contagion risks through cross-border negative feedback loops between sovereigns and banking sectors in Europe that help explain the severe impact of the crisis.     

An Alternative Approach to the Institutional Economics of the Eurozone Crisis

I argue that the Eurozone crisis is neither a crisis of European sovereigns in the sense of governmental over-borrowing, nor a crisis of sovereign debt market over-lending. Rather, it is a function of the “sovereign debt market” institution itself. Crisis, I argue, is not an occurrence, but an element fulfilling a precise technical function within this institution. It ensures the possibility of designating — in the market’s day-to-day mechanisms rather than analytical hindsight — normal (tranquil, undisturbed) market functioning. To show this, I propose an alternative view on the institutional economics of sovereign debt markets. First, I engage literature on the emergent qualities of the institutions “market” and “firm” in product markets, concluding that the point of coalescence for markets is the approximation of an optimal observation of consumer tastes. I then examine the specific institution “financial markets,” where the optimal observation of economic fundamentals is decisive. For the specific sub-institution “sovereign debt market,” I conclude that the fundamentals in question — country fundamentals — oscillate between a status of observable fundamentals outside of markets and operationalized fundamentals influenced by market movements. This, in turn, allows me to argue that the specific case of the Eurozone crisis is due to neither of the two causes mentioned above. Rather, the notion of “crisis” takes on a technical sense within the market structure, guaranteeing the separation of herd behavior and isomorphic behavior on European sovereign debt markets. By the same token, the so-called Eurozone crisis ceases to be a crisis in the conventional sense.     

Exchange Market Pressure in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CAEMC) Area: Empirical Assessment of the Macroeconomic Determinants

ABSTRACT

The current empirical study contributes to the literature on the exchange market pressure. First we construct as proposed by Eichengreen, Rose, and Wyplosz [1996. Contagious currency crises: First tests. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 98 (4), 463–484], a continuous measure of EMP for the CAEMC franc zone, using quarterly data from 1985Q1 to 2012Q2. We then address the main macroeconomic determinants of this EMP.

We find that our main measure for EMP as well as two alternative measures of this index captures quite well episodes of crises of the CFA (XAF) currency. During the period of study, the common currency of the CAEMC countries experienced about four speculative attacks, with the one in 1993 ending with the devaluation of that currency in January 1994. The other attacks were warded off through reserves losses, as it is clear that the currency peg was maintained principally through changes in reserves. We also find that the GDP growth, the trade balance and the international oil price are the main contributors of EMP and therefore the most significant predictors of currency crises in the CAEMC area.     

Equity market neutral hedge funds and the stock market: an application of score-driven copula models

In this article, we study the time-varying market neutrality of equity market neutral hedge funds. We use data from the Hedge Fund Research? Equity Market Neutral Index (HFRX EH), which represents the performance of a portfolio of individual equity market neutral hedge funds. For each day, we measure different levels of association of the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&;P 500) index and the HFRX EH. We use non-linear dynamic conditional score models of location, scale and copula that, to the best of our knowledge, have not yet been applied in the body of literature on hedge funds. We study whether the neutrality of the HFRX EH that is evidenced in the body of literature for the period of April 1993–April 2003 also holds for the following decade, for the period of May 2003–December 2016. We estimate different average levels of association for the pre-, during- and post-periods of the US financial crisis of 2008. We find that the association of the S&;P 500 and the HFRX EH, on average, is significantly positive for the pre- and post-periods of the financial crisis, and it is significantly negative for the period during the financial crisis.     

Modeling of the impact of the financial crisis and China's accession to WTO on China's exports to Germany

We focus on discussing the impact of China's accession to WTO and the financial crisis on China's exports to Germany, particularly in agricultural products, based on some most recent proposals. Firstly, structural breaks caused by those events are detected. Then the Box–Cox model and a new tree-form Constant Market Share (CMS) model are fitted to discover the long-term impact of those events on the trade relationship between China and Germany and the growth causes of China's exports to Germany. We found that China's accession to WTO had a negative short-term impact on China's exports and its market share in agricultural products, but a positive short-term impact on its market share in industrial products and a positive long-term impact on its exports and market share in both classes. The tree-form CMS model shows the growth of China's exports to Germany due to competitiveness after this event was much higher than before. The financial crisis exhibited a negative short-term impact on China's exports to Germany, but a positive short-term impact on China's market share and the trade relationship between both countries in industrial products. China's market share in agricultural products was not affected by the financial crisis.     

R&D investment,cash holdings and the financial crisis: evidence from Korean corporate data

This article examines the real effects of the financial crisis in 2008 on corporate R&D investment by analyzing firm-level panel data from 2005 to 2011 obtained from KIS-VALUE, a Korean corporate finance database. I estimate a dynamic panel model of R&D investment that includes an after-crisis dummy to reflect the effects of the external finance supply shock after the financial crisis, an interaction term of the dummy and cash holdings to measure the marginal effect of cash holdings after the crisis, investment opportunities (sales and the q ratio) and financial positions as the debt-equity ratio. The estimation implies a negative yet relatively small impact of the credit supply shock from the financial crisis on R&D investment and the mitigation of the negative impacts by cash holdings after the onset of the financial crisis, whereas the data show decreasing R&D investment and sales for the whole period. Based on the data and the estimation, I find that firms were able to lessen the pressure from diminishing market demand before the crisis using external finance, but they had to use internal financial sources after the crisis smooth R&D investment.     

European policy and markets: Did policy initiatives stem the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area?

We investigate how European policy initiatives influenced market assessments of sovereign default risk and banking sector fragility during the sovereign debt crisis in four adversely affected countries — Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy. We focus on three broad groups of policies: (a) ECB policy actions (monetary and financial support), (b) EU programs (financial and fiscal rules as well as financial support in crisis countries), and (c) domestic austerity programs. We measure immediate market impact effects: what policies changed risk perceptions, using CDS spreads on sovereign bonds and banks in this assessment. We employ dynamic panel and event study methodologies in the empirical work. We find that a number of programs initially stabilized sovereign and bank bond markets (e.g. Outright Monetary Transactions program), although announcement and implementation impacts on markets differed in some cases (e.g. second Covered Market Bond Program). Actions designed to shore up sovereign markets often lowered risk assessments in bank bond markets and policies designed to ensure safety and soundness of the European banking system in some cases significantly impacted sovereign debt markets. Finally, a number of policies designed to stabilize markets had surprisingly little immediate impact on either sovereign or bank bond market risk assessments.     

Is market liquidity less resilient after the financial crisis? Evidence for US Treasuries

Understanding market liquidity resilience, i.e. the capacity of liquidity to absorb shocks, of United States Treasuries is crucial from a financial stability standpoint. The conventional resilience measure has limitations due to the use of the liquidity level. We propose a new complementary approach to analyze resilience based on liquidity volatility. For this purpose, we focus on the link between returns volatility and liquidity volatility, which is a relatively unexplored field. We fit a bivariate conditional correlation (CC-) GARCH model for the 10-year bond returns and five liquidity indicators from January 2003 to June 2016 to analyze persistence and spillovers between these variables in a parsimonious way. We find that after the crisis, spillovers between liquidity volatility and returns volatility are higher, feedback loops are more likely and volatility persistence is lower, which is consistent with a lower resilience. Our results help to explain recent episodes of high volatility in this market.     

The impact of unsuccessful pirate attacks on financial markets: Evidence in support of Leeson's reputation-building theory

This paper examines the effect of unsuccessful Somali pirate attacks on financial-market returns in the Arabian Peninsula. Specifically, it tests Leeson's (2010a) reputation-building theory of pirate signaling behavior postulating that unsuccessful pirate attacks may trigger subsequent future attacks by pirates as pirates attempt to maintain and build their reputation for effective piracy. We test this theory empirically by studying the relationship between pirate attacks and financial-market returns in the Arabian Peninsula. The result of our empirical test supports Leeson's theory: unsuccessful pirate attacks are associated with lower financial-market returns, suggesting that market participants expect unsuccessful pirate attacks to be followed by future pirate attacks.     

后危机阶段中国经济发展的途径和模式

从对本次金融危机认识与传导路径研究总结归纳入手,着重分析了美国金融危机对中国国民经济增长带来的影响。以金融、贸易及利率等宏观经济变化为背景,以2006～2009年的月度数据为研究样本,实证检验了中国在这次金融危机中受到的冲击。结果表明,中美股票市场之间相互影响相互引致的关系,且以美国股市影响为主;美国进口需求对中国出口具有显著的影响;人民币汇率变化与美元估值变化关系不明显,并就实证结果提供了相关政策建议。     

Evaluating currency crises: A Bayesian Markov switching approach

In this paper we examine the nature of a currency crisis. We do so by employing an out-of-sample forecasting exercise to analyse the Mexican crisis in 1994. Forecast evaluation was based on modern econometric techniques concerning the shape of forecaster’s loss function. We also extend the empirical framework suggested by Jeanne and Masson [Jeanne, O., Masson, P., 2000. Currency crises and Markov-switching regimes. Journal of International Economics 50, 327–350] to test for the hypothesis that the currency crisis was driven by sunspots. To this end we contribute to the existing literature by comparing Markov regime switching model with a time-varying transition probabilities with two alternative models. The first is a Markov regime switching model with constant transition probabilities. The second is a linear benchmark model. Empirical results show that the proxy for the probability of devaluation is an important factor explaining the nature of currency crisis. More concretely, when the expectation market pressure was used as a proxy of probability of devaluation, forecast evaluation supports the view that currency crisis was driven by market expectation unrelated to fundamentals. Alternatively, when interest rate differential is used as a proxy for probability of devaluation, currency crisis was due to predictable deterioration of fundamentals.