Factor price overshooting with trade liberalization: theory and evidence

This paper develops an intra‐industry trade model with skilled and unskilled labor as factors of production, endogenous accumulation of skilled labor and firm heterogeneity in factor intensities to examine the effect of trade reforms on factor prices. Since exporters are more skill intensive than non–exporters, a decrease in trade barriers initially increases wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers, as a result of an increase in the relative demand for skilled labor. Over time, however, as agents respond to the change in relative wages by investing in skilled labor, the relative wage of skilled labor decreases. Evidence from Chilean plant–level data supports the idea of factor price overshooting with trade liberalization.     

Skills,Tasks and the Scarcity of Talent in a Global Economy

The scarcity of talent is a tremendous challenge for firms in the globalized world. This paper investigates the role of labor market imperfection in open economies for the usage of talent in the production process of firms. For this purpose, I set up a heterogeneous firms model, where production consists of a continuum of tasks that differ in complexity. Firms hire low‐skilled and high‐skilled workers to perform these tasks. How firms assign workers to tasks depends on factor prices for the two skill types and the productivity advantage of high‐skilled workers in the performance of complex tasks. I study the firms’ assignment problem under two labor market regimes, which capture the polar cases of fully flexible wages and a binding minimum wage for low‐skilled workers. Since the minimum wage lowers the skill premium, it increases the range of tasks performed by high‐skilled workers, which enhances the stock of knowledge within firms to solve complex tasks and reduces the mass of active firms. In a setting with fully flexible wages trade does not affect the firm‐internal assignment of workers to tasks. On the contrary, if low‐skilled wages are fixed by a minimum wage, trade renders high‐skilled workers a scarce resource and reduces the range of tasks performed by this skill type with negative consequences for the human capital stock within firms. In this case, trade leads to higher per‐capita income for both skill types and thus to higher welfare in the open than in the closed economy, whereas – somewhat counter‐intuitive – inequality between the two skill types decreases, as more low‐skilled workers find employment in the production process.     

Equipment Investment and the Relative Demand for Skilled Labor: International Evidence

The effects of equipment investment on relative wages and employment of skilled labor are estimated. The basic hypothesis is that such effects are positive, because of the presence of either equipment–skill complementarity or skill advantage in technology adoption. Using a panel data set for a wide range of countries, the relative wage and relative employment of skilled workers are regressed on lagged investment in machinery and other relevant variables. The results indicate a positive and strong effect of machinery investment on the relative demand for skilled labor, with the relative wage responding much sooner and for a much shorter time than relative employment. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: E24.     

Wage inequality and skill supplies in a globalised world

We investigate empirically, and explain theoretically, how the relative wages of skilled and unskilled workers vary with their relative supplies in open economies. Our results combine the insights of simple labour market and trade models. In countries that trade, relative wages respond inversely to variation in skill supplies, but the response decreases with the degree of openness to trade and is small in very open countries. To reconcile our results with standard estimates of the elasticity of substitution between skilled and unskilled workers, we allow also for the influence of directed technical change and income elasticity of demand for skill-intensive goods.     

The demand for skills and labour costs in partner countries

We analyse the consequences of trade integration in Europe (1995–2005) detecting how the labour costs in partner countries affect the domestic demand for high‐ and low‐skilled labour in ‘Old’ (EU‐15) and five ‘New’ EU member states. In general, independently of the skill level of workers, the results suggest complementarity between domestic and foreign labour. However, when we take into account the typology of sectors, the demand for the high skilled in low skill intensive sectors in ‘New’ EU members is boosted by the increase of the average labour cost in ‘Old’ EU members. Thus in low skill intensive sectors, the high skilled in ‘New’ member countries can substitute for employment in EU‐15 countries.     

A Schumpeterian North–South Growth Model of Trade and Wage Inequality*

The paper presents a dynamic general‐equilibrium model of interindustry North–South trade that is used to analyze the effects of trade liberalization on the Northern wage distribution. Both countries have a low‐tech sector where consumer goods of constant quality are produced by use of unskilled labor. The North also has a high‐tech sector that employs skilled labor and features a quality‐ladder model structure with endogenous growth. Both innovation and skill acquisition rates are endogenously determined. In a balanced trade equilibrium, it is found that Southern‐originated (Northern‐originated) trade liberalization leads to an increase (decrease) in Northern wage inequality both between skilled and unskilled workers and within the group of skilled workers. The endogenous change in the Southern terms of trade determines the direction of change in unskilled wages in both the North and the South.     

Trade and inequality in a directed search model with firm and worker heterogeneity

This paper integrates the insight that exporting firms are typically more productive and employ higher‐skilled workers into a directed search model of the labour market. The model generates a skill premium as well as residual wage inequality among identical workers. A trade liberalization increases the skill premium and likely increases residual inequality among high‐skilled workers. The calibrated model generates results consistent with the prior literature examining the effect of the Canada‐US Free Trade Agreement on the Canadian labour market: a significant decrease in employment in manufacturing, but only a small change in unemployment and wages.     

A SEARCH‐EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH TO THE EFFECTS OF IMMIGRATION ON LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES

We analyze the impact of the U.S. skill‐biased immigration influx that took place between 2000 and 2009 within a search and matching model that allows for skill heterogeneity, differential search cost, and capital‐skill complementarity. We find that although the skill‐biased immigration raised the overall net income to natives, it had distributional effects. Specifically, unskilled native workers gained in terms of both employment and wages. Skilled native workers, however, gained in terms of employment but lost in terms of wages. Nevertheless, in an extension where skilled natives and immigrants are imperfect substitutes, even the skilled wage rises.     

Technology Adoption,Export Status,and Skill Upgrading: Theory and Evidence

This paper develops a model of trade that features heterogeneous firms, technology choice and different types of skilled labor in a general equilibrium framework to explain within‐industry increase in the relative demand for skilled workers. Its main contribution is to investigate the impact of firms' export and technology choice decisions on skill upgrading. Only firms in the upper range of the productivity distribution produce for the foreign market using high‐technology. Since this technology is skilled‐biased, exporters that resort to modern technologies are more skill intensive. Empirical evidence is also provided to support the model's main predictions using plant‐level panel data from Chile's manufacturing sector (1990–1999).     

Greenfield FDI and skill upgrading: A polarized issue

Outbound FDI is often accused of increasing income inequality in developed countries by shifting labour demand from low‐skilled towards high‐skilled workers (wage polarization). In response, we employ data on greenfield FDI that, in contrast to M&As, may be more clearly linked to skill upgrading. Our data also delineate greenfield FDI by sector, function and destination, allowing us to control for different motives and skill intensities for 17 developed countries for 2003–2005. We find that greenfield FDI in support services, e.g., back and front office services, induces polarized skill upgrading, benefitting high‐skilled workers at the expense of medium‐skilled workers, thereby polarizing wages.     

We Can Work It Out: The Impact of Technological Change on the Demand for Low-Skill Workers

There is little doubt that technology has had the most profound effect on altering the tasks that we humans do in our jobs. Economists have long speculated on how technical change affects both the absolute demand for labour as a whole and the relative demands for different types of labour. In recent years, the idea of skill‐biased technical change has become the consensus view about the current impact of technology on labour demand, namely that technical change leads to an increase in the demand for skilled relative to unskilled labour painting a bleak future for the employment prospects of less‐skilled workers. But, drawing on a recent paper by Autor, Levy and Murnane (2003) about the impact of technology on the demand for different types of skills, this paper argues that the demand in the least‐skilled jobs may be growing. But, it is argued that employment of the less‐skilled is increasingly dependent on physical proximity to the more‐skilled and may also be vulnerable in the long‐run to further technological developments.     

Heterogeneity of imported intermediate inputs and labour: evidence from India’s input tariff liberalization

This article explores whether the nature of imports matters when examining the effects of trade on plant-level labour outcomes. Previous literature that examines this question mainly considers imported intermediate inputs as a homogenous group and is unable to reach a consensus on the effects of input tariff liberalization on employment and wages of skilled and unskilled workers. Exploiting detailed product-level information available on intermediate inputs from plant-level data for the Indian manufacturing sector, I distinguish between plants that import mainly for quality considerations as opposed to plants that seek imports as cheaper alternatives to domestic inputs. I find that strong complementarities exist between skilled workers and imported inputs for plants importing high-quality inputs. For plants importing intermediate inputs mainly as a cost-cutting strategy, input tariff liberalization leads to an increase in employment of both skilled and unskilled workers, but a decline in skill composition. This can best be explained as a strategy that achieves economies of scale. On average, as input tariffs liberalize, importing plants employ more workers and pay higher wages than non-importing plants.     

Industrial de-licensing, trade liberalization, and skill upgrading in India

We investigate the relationship between industrial de-licensing, trade liberalization, and skill upgrading during the 1980s and 1990s among manufacturing plants in India. We use a unique dataset on India's industrial licensing regime to test whether industrial de-licensing during the 1980s and 1990s played a role in skill upgrading, as measured by the employment and wagebill shares of white-collar workers. In addition, we assess the relative contribution of industrial de-licensing and trade liberalization to skill upgrading. We identify two main channels through which industrial de-licensing affects skill upgrading: capital- and output-skill complementarities. Using both difference-in-differences as well as regression discontinuity techniques, we find two important results. First, after controlling for the size-based exemption rule that determined whether or not a plant faced licensing restrictions, industrial de-licensing during the 1980s appears to have increased the relative demand for skilled workers via capital- and output-skill complementarities. Capital- and output-skill complementarities exist for plants in both licensed and de-licensed industries but were stronger in de-licensed industries during the 1980s, prior to India's massive trade liberalization reforms in 1991. Second, regardless of de-licensing, capital- and output-skill complementarities are generally weaker after trade was liberalized during the early 1990s. Together, capital- and output-skill complementarities contributed 75% (57%) and 31% (29%), respectively, of the growth in the employment and wagebill shares of white-collar workers in de-licensed (licensed) industries before trade was liberalized. After trade liberalization, these contributions were smaller. This suggests that trade liberalization may not have played a major role in raising the relative demand for skilled labor during the early 1990s.     

The Effect of Emigration from Poland on Polish Wages

In this paper, we analyse the effect of emigration from Poland on Polish wages. Focusing on the 1998–2007 period for Poland, we use a unique dataset that contains information about household members who are currently living abroad, which allows us to develop region‐specific emigration rates and to estimate the effect of emigration on wages using within‐region variation. Our findings show that emigration led to a slight increase in wages for high‐ and medium‐skilled workers, which are the two groups with the largest relative outmigration rates. Workers at the low end of the skill distribution might have experienced wage decreases.     

Quantifying the Impact of Trade on Wages: the Role of Nontraded Goods

This paper uses an applied general‐equilbrium model to decompose the effects of changes in trade‐ and technology‐related variables between 1982 and 1996 in the United States on the wages of skilled and unskilled labor. The results indicate that trade‐related variables (tariff cuts, improvement in the terms of trade, and the increase in the trade deficit) had little impact on the widening wage gap. The major factor behind the rise in the skilled wage relative to the unskilled wage was differential rates of growth in skill‐biased technical change across sectors. The paper also highlights the role that nontraded goods play in explaining the wage gap. Finally, the paper presents estimates of how wages would change if the economy moved to autarky. The results show that expanding trade could actually reduce wage inequality, rather than increase it.     

The impact of trade on the relative wages and employment of low skill workers in France

The impact of international trade on labour markets in developed countries will be different according to the degree of competition in product markets, the flexibility of the labour market and the skill intensity of production. An econometric analysis of the impact of trade in France has been undertaken using sectoral data for the period 1985–p1992. It is found that lower relative import prices reduce the relative employment of low skill workers in the first half the period and reduce their relative wages in the second half. In both cases the effect is more pronounced in sectors where the skill intensity of production is initially low.     

Impact of Chinese growth and trade on labor in developed countries

This paper examines the impacts of growth in China's economy and trade on the skill premium of labor in developed countries. We utilize a unique global dataset that disaggregates workers by occupations to identify impacts across labor categories with different skill sets, complementing the widely used GTAP Data Base in the CGE framework offered by the GTAP model. To study the impacts of China's fast-paced growth, we model the counterfactual, i.e., what if China grew and opened at a more modest rate; we then compare this baseline with China's actual growth. Results indicate that a strong rise in manufacturing exports from China to the US impacts output and employment in the US. The US shifts its production away from light manufacturing sectors to more service-oriented sectors that also tend to engage higher skilled labor. There is a small decrease in the real wages of unskilled labor and a rise in the real wages of skilled labor. Interestingly, not all categories of unskilled labor lose, rather those that are more directly linked with manufacturing sectors are impacted; unskilled ‘service and shop workers’ and the unskilled ‘agricultural workers, machine operators, assemblers, craft workers, and others’ observe a small decline in real wages, while the impact on unskilled ‘clerks’ is insignificant. For all categories of skilled workers, there is an increase in real wages primarily driven by the shift in production to services and high-skilled labor intensive categories, resulting in the rising skill premium. Hence disaggregating the labor data provides greater depth on the understanding of the differential impacts on domestic workers resulting from trade, and thereby guides policy on how these differential impacts can be smoothed through redistribution of benefits. Consistent with other study findings, there is a positive impact on overall growth and welfare in the US, EU and Australasia.     

Trade Liberalization and the Relative Wages for More-Skilled Workers in Costa Rica

A prominent argument regarding the effects of trade liberalization on the dispersion of wages in LDCs is that trade liberalization should lower the relative demand for more-skilled workers by inducing between-sector shifts towards sectors intensive in unskilled labor. Based on a disaggregating, nonparametric approach that imposes little structure on the data, the paper presents evidence that trade liberalization in Costa Rica led to an increase in relative demand. Other findings are consistent with the "skill-enhancing-trade hypothesis," whereby trade liberalization induces an acceleration of physical capital imports, which raises relative demand through capital–skill complimentarily.     

Who Trades with Whom? Exploring the Links between Firms' International Activities,Skills, and Wages

Using firm‐level data on the Italian manufacturing industry, we examine how trade activities are related to workforce composition and wages. We contribute to empirical research on these issues in three ways. First, we provide new evidence that is consistent with multi‐attribute models on firm heterogeneity and trade. We show that even after controlling for various company characteristics, including size and capital intensity, exporters still pay higher wages and employ more skilled workers than nonexporters. Second, we consider engagement in international transactions, either by means of exports, imports, or a combination of the two. We show that failing to control for importing activities may bias upward export premia. Third, we look at how the wage and the employment structures of trading firms change with the country of destination and origin of trade flows. We find that wage and skill premia are influenced by the characteristics of partner countries.     

Firms’ location decision across asymmetric countries and employment inequality

This paper analyzes the effect of globalization (lower trade costs) on production and trade patterns if, firms are vertically linked, stages of production differ in labor-factors intensity and countries differ in labor-factors prices. In order to reflect the “Continental Europe” experience, relative wages are assumed fixed and spatial changes in production are translated into changes in relative (skilled to unskilled) employment levels. The asymmetry in factors prices across countries results in a unique agglomeration equilibrium for a broad range of trade costs. At low trade costs, firms’ location depends on production costs—vertical specialization occurs. This paper also provides a consistent explanation of the observed increase in employment inequality between skilled and unskilled workers in relatively high-unskilled wage countries.