中国国家级非物质文化遗产的空间分布特征及影响因素

基于点格局分析、核密度分析、热点聚类等方法,以中国4批次3 140项国家非物质文化遗产为研究对象,对其空间分布模式进行了定量分析。结果发现:(1)中国国家级非物质文化遗产呈聚集分布态势,具有较强的空间依赖性。(2)从类别来看,表演艺术类聚集于京津冀与冀鲁豫、长三角、粤闽沿海、湘鄂贵地区;传统手工艺类聚集在长三角、陕晋交界、京津冀地区;口头传统和表现形式类聚集在长三角及黄河下游地区;有关自然界和宇宙的知识和实践类主要分布于京津冀地区;社会实践、仪式与节庆类多分布于东南沿海。(3)从批次来看,前两期非遗项目较多;后期更重视经济不发达地区非遗项目的开发。(4)非遗项目的两个分布高核区分别位于京津冀和长三角。(5)非遗分布趋向于地势比较平坦、气候温暖宜人、水资源丰富、阔叶林为主的平原和低山地区,以及历史文化悠久、民族聚居、经济较发达区域。     

中国制造业就业的空间偏离—份额分析

在传统偏离-份额分析基础上,本文引入空间偏离-份额分析方法分析我国八大区域的制造业就业空间变动.研究认为,西部大开发对制造业的就业变动影响不大;2005年东部振兴和中部崛起以及国内外其他因素的作用使到制造业产业部门向非沿海地区转移,而且主要集中在中部区域和东北区域;东部沿海和南部沿海区域仍然是制造业发展的重要基地,制造业转移过程呈产业集中与产业转移同时发展的特征;沿海区域发展较好的产业部门难以向非沿海地区转移,非沿海区域对承接制造业产业部门存在着无序规划的问题.     

我国区域经济的溢出效应研究

以最近提出的区域划分为依据,将全国分为南部沿海、东部沿海、北部沿海、东北、长江中游、黄河中游、西南和西北等八大区。ADF检验表明每个区域的人均产出都是包含结构转变的趋势平稳序列,因此以八个区域的产出为变量建立向量自回归VAR模型,来研究区域经济的互动关系。格兰杰因果关系检验和脉冲响应结果表明:东部沿海、北部沿海、长江中游、黄河中游和西南地区的经济增长产生明显的溢出效应,东北、西北和南部沿海地区的产出增加对其他区域的带动作用不大。由此认为,促进“长三角”和沿江地区、黄河中游以及京、津、唐地区的经济增长,有利于全国总体经济;推动西北、东北和“珠三角”的发展,仅对这些地区自身有利。     

中国“淘宝村”的空间分布特征及驱动因素分析

采用2013—2015年"淘宝村"空间统计数据,结合区域网民数量、互联网普及率等数据信息,利用GIS空间分析和空间计量经济学的方法,研究了中国"淘宝村"的变化趋势、空间分布特征,以及驱动因素。结果表明:12013—2015年中国"淘宝村"发展迅猛,以江浙沪为核心向邻近区域扩散;2"淘宝村"在空间分布上呈现显著的阶梯特征,即由东部沿海向西部内陆梯度锐减,以"秦岭—淮河"一线为界"南多北少","淘宝村"集聚分布在"长三角"、"珠三角"、"京津冀"等物流便利、经济基础良好、消费市场成熟的沿海发达地区;3"淘宝村"快速发展的深层驱动因素主要有:互联网消费市场的繁荣,快递、互联网金融、通信网络等相关行业的发展,政府引导调控和电商平台企业战略投入的共同推动,"邻里效应"与"商业文化传统"等社会因素的促进。     

中国城市电影票房分布特征及影响因素

以2012—2015年艺恩数据智库发布的中国298个地级及以上城市电影相关数据及中国城市统计年鉴为基础,计算电影票房综合指数,运用空间分析和多元线性回归法,从省、市两个层面分析电影票房的地域差异,并探讨其影响因素。研究表明:①电影票房省级层面上呈现自东部沿海向西部内陆地区由高到低的阶梯状分布特征;城市层面呈现东部沿海城市与内陆城市之间、省会城市与一般地级市之间的分异并存,但随时间推移差距不断减小;一二线城市电影票房明显下滑,三线及以下城市大幅上升。②电影票房的等级规模结构呈现首位城市垄断性不强,中间位序城市较多,中后位序城市发展逐渐快于位序在前的城市。③电影票房的热点集聚区主要分布在珠三角、长三角及环渤海地区,环渤海地区逐渐下滑,长三角地区不断加强;热点集聚区逐渐缩小,次热点集聚区不断增大,冷点集聚区变化不大,主要集中在西部地区。④高中及以上文化水平人数、年末移动电话用户数、城市影院数、房价压力是影响电影票房空间分布的主要因素。     

中国外贸集装箱生成量的空间分布特征

自1980年代以来中国集装箱运输以年均24.78%的速度快速增长,其中70%以上为外贸集装箱量,研究外贸集装箱生成的空间分布和差异对发展中国的集装箱运输至关重要。对我国340个地级市2013年外贸集装箱生成量分布特征研究发现,地级市的集装箱生成能力具有明显的趋海性特征,呈现出由东部向中、西部迅速递减的格局,东部沿海51个地级市4.56%的国土面积上生成了65.4%的外贸集装箱;距离海岸线350 km以内约全国面积16.23%的地级市,形成了高达94.12%的外贸集装箱量;距离海岸线350 km以外83.77%的国土面积上,仅具有全国约6%的集装箱生成能力。利用探索性空间数据分析方法研究空间差异的结果表明,我国外贸集装箱生成同时也具有明显的不均衡性特征,在集装箱分布高度密集的东部沿海地区,山东半岛区域、长三角地区、海峡西岸和珠三角地区是显著性热点区域,而西部绝大部分地区及东北的部分城市是显著性的冷点区域。基于外贸集装箱分布明显的趋海性和不均衡性特征,在对集装箱港口腹地的划分、港口布局及港口集疏运体系的规划等方面的研究过程中,应重点关注距海岸线350 km以内的东部沿海区域的相关问题。     

中国市域经济发展质量水平的格局演变及其驱动因子

利用纵横向拉开档次法,构建了由38个具体指标构成的市域经济发展质量水平评价指标体系,利用Dagum基尼系数、传统马尔可夫链和空间马尔可夫链、地理探测器等方法,研究了2000—2019年中国地级及以上市域经济发展质量的格局演变及其驱动因子。结果表明：(1)2000—2019年全国市域经济发展质量不断提升,八大经济区间呈现“东部沿海>南部沿海>北部沿海>长江中游>黄河中游>东北>西南>西北”态势,市域经济发展质量在空间分布上呈显著的空间集聚性;(2)全国经济发展质量高的市域在“东西”“南北”间数量差距明显,并呈现由长三角、珠三角和山东半岛城市群向四周放射性扩张的时空分异特征;(3)区域内Dagum基尼系数平均值呈“西北>南部沿海>西南>东北>东部沿海>黄河中游>北部沿海>长江中游”态势,区域间差异随时间推移正渐趋消弭;(4)市域经济发展质量水平向上等级跃迁的难度逐级增大,且“高高集聚、高带动低”的“俱乐部趋同”现象明显;(5)产业集聚、金融科技、城市等级、对外开放、与港口的距离是市域经济发展质量的主要驱动因...     

环境规制下的中国水资源利用环境技术效率测度及空间关联特征分析

基于省际水足迹和灰色水足迹等的面板数据,利用带有“非期望”产出的数据包络分析方法计算出中国省际的水资源利用环境技术效率,利用聚类分析与探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法研究了水资源利用环境技术效率空间分布特征.研究发现:东部的水资源利用环境技术效率明显高于中西部;中国各地区水资源利用环境技术效率呈现出正的空间相关性特征,存在着空间集聚特征.HH集聚主要分布在东部沿海一带;LL集聚主要分布在中、西部地区,在空间分布上较稳定;HL集聚和LH集聚省市较少,各时期均有变化.结果表明,文中提出的模型可以更加客观地评价环境规制背景下的水资源利用效率,具有一定的理论意义与实践价值.     

改革开放30年来中国旅游业发展空间差异演变研究

以中国31个省市自治区为研究单元,以1991年、1999年、2007年3个年份为研究时间截面,以中国旅游统计年鉴和中国统计年鉴为数据源,运用SPSS和ArcGIS软件,对改革开放30多年来我国旅游业发展的空间差异进行分析后发现:30年来,中国旅游业大体上可分为发达区、较发达区、欠发达区和不发达区等4类区;中国旅游业总体取得了较大的发展,但空间差异明显,且有拉大的趋势;发达区进一步集中在东部沿海地区,较发达区向东北沿海和中南部地区集中,欠发达区向北部地区集中,不发达区向西南地区集中;广东省和北京市旅游业发展最快,一直属于发达区,而青海省和西藏自治区发展最慢,一直为不发达区。     

中国省域渔业全要素碳排放效率时空分异

基于2005—2015年中国大陆28个省市区的面板数据,分别运用非期望产出超效率SBM模型、GIS空间分析法和莫兰指数对渔业全要素碳排放效率的时空差异和演变特征进行分析,并建立动态面板模型实证检验渔业碳排放效率的主要影响因素。结果表明:(1)中国渔业全要素碳排放效率总体上不断上升但整体水平不高,高效率省份呈现出由分散布局向东部沿海和长江流域集聚的显著趋势,东部、中部和西部的渔业碳排放效率依次递减且差距逐步减小;(2)在空间关联格局上,中国渔业全要素碳排放效率的空间集聚存在交叉分布,且空间依赖具有动态性,逐步形成较为明显的H-H区和L-L区集聚格局;(3)渔业全要素碳排放效率与渔业节能技术水平、产业结构、对外开放程度和渔业发展水平呈正相关关系,与资源禀赋呈负相关关系。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Neurally reconstructing expected utility

While the concept of “expected utility” informs many theories of decision making, little is known about whether and how the human brain might compute this quantity. This article reviews a series of functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) experiments designed to localize brain regions that respond in anticipation of increasing amounts of monetary incentives. These studies collectively suggest that anticipation of increasing monetary gains activates a subcortical region of the ventral striatum in a magnitude-proportional manner. This ventral striatal activation is not evident during anticipation of losses. Actual gain outcomes instead activate a region of the mesial prefrontal cortex. During anticipation of gain, ventral striatal activation is accompanied by feelings characterized by increasing arousal and positive valence. These findings affirm the role of emotion in the anticipation of incentives, and may provide an initial step towards a neural reconstruction of expected utility.     

Duplication, Growth and ‘Total Return Economics’

Maintenance consumption is an expense recovered in product prices, yet also a source of taste satisfaction which must be exhausted, rather than reinvested, from the capital affording it. This riddle is solved in the duplication rules: the cost of maintenance consumption is recovered in pay and prices, but an equal flow is exhausted from the human capital of the worker earning the pay. The rules impact tradition in several ways. If output is defined in principle as value added, then it cannot also be described as consumption plus net investment without double-counting the maintenance consumption recovered in prices. Also rate of return in the stationary state is not zero, but is the rate sufficient to offset the exhaustion of individual human capital. The rules lead to new insights into economic return, and support an argument that all growth at the scale of closure is due to productivity gain rather than to thrift.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Simulating the Effect of Regulatory Systems in a Fishery, An Application to the French Driftnet Albacore Fleet

With a thin economic component, most bio-economic models of fisheries failto assess the effects of the regulation systems on firms. In order to analysethe short term consequences of different management schemes, a simulationmodel is applied to the French driftnet albacore fleet: licence allocation withdriftnet regulation, individual quotas, and individual transferable quotaswithout any input control. Vessel technology is estimated by using the datacollected, and groups of vessels are distinguished according to criteria ofperformance. We present the adjustment within firms and between groupsunder different scenarios (limited entry with and without driftnetregulation, individual quotas and individual transferable quotas allocation),and we compare their results in terms of quasi-rent value and otherindicators such as hake harvests or dolphin by-catches.     

Knowledge as a Path-Dependence Process

By following a new approach proposed by Cognitive and Neuroeconomics, this paper presents and extends that part of Hayek's theory concerning knowledge in path-dependent terms, and shows that this is a fertile theory, opening new lines of inquiry for contemporary economics. In his theory of knowledge Hayek shows that the dynamics of economic change is path-dependent, in a different and more profound way than in the rest of the path-dependent literature. This literature deals with an important controversy, which will be also discussed and its specific and original meaning will be highlighted. As it will emerge, knowledge as a path-dependent process is consistent with cognitive theories of perception and learning and it plays a more important role than is traditionally assumed. Path-dependence is in fact always present in the cognitive dimension of perception and in individual decision-making processes, as well as in the processes of organizational innovation, and even in the macro-dimension of institutional change. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.