京津冀都市圈新型城镇化与城市土地利用效益协调性研究

运用变异系数法、极差变换法、耦合度模型和协调度模型对2003、2006、2009、2012年京津冀都市圈城市土地利用效益与新型城镇化的耦合协调程度进行深入分析。结果显示:京津冀都市圈城市土地利用效益与新型城镇化水平综合指数差异明显,尚未达到土地利用效益和新型城镇化水平同步稳定发展的阶段;各城市的土地利用效益与新型城镇化之间的耦合程度良好,以中高度耦合程度为主且整体呈上升的趋势;区域内各城市的协调程度大多数处在失调阶段,并呈现出明显的"中心—外围"逐步递减的分布趋势;除北京和天津外,大部分城市的土地利用效益与新型城镇化的耦合强度高于协调程度,空间上尚未达到耦合协调的良性共振。     

辽宁省人口城镇化与土地城镇化耦合协调性研究(上)

人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展是促进城镇化可持续发展的重要手段之一,更是提高城镇化质量的重要手段。以辽宁省14个城市为研究对象,构建评价指标体系,利用均方差赋权法和耦合协调模型,度量人口与土地耦合协调度,结果表明:(1)辽宁省人口城镇化水平比较平稳,城市建设面积在快速增长,但是土地利用效益较低,出现了下降趋势比较明显。(2)人口城镇化与土地城镇化处在耦合颉颃阶段,以高等强度耦合城市为主。(3)人口城镇化与土地城镇化的协调度处于初级协调阶段和勉强协调阶段,城市比重很低,濒临失调和轻度失调阶段,城市所占比例很高,空间上形成了以沈阳、大连为核心的依次递减的空间结构。(4)协调度类型方面:沈阳和大连处于高水平协调区,盘锦处于次高水平协调区,鞍山和抚顺等6个城市处于较低水平协调区,丹东和朝阳等中小城市处于低水平协调区,人口与土地城镇化的协调类型上看,沈阳和阜新属于同步型,铁岭和朝阳属于人口城镇化滞后型,其余10个城市属于土地滞后型(本文分上、下两部分刊出)。     

人口半城镇化与产业非农化的时空耦合分析——以浙江省67县市为例

通过改进人口半城镇化测算方法,运用双变量空间自相关及耦合度模型,分析了浙江省人口半城镇化与产业非农化的空间格局及耦合度,并对其耦合关系进行了时空分析和规律探讨。结果表明:①浙江省人口半城镇化与产业非农化均呈增长趋势,人口半城镇化呈现出南高北低的空间格局,产业非农化表现出相反的北高南低格局。②人口半城镇化与产业非农化表现出显著的空间负相关,形成浙北低人口半城镇化—高产业非农化、浙西和浙南高人口半城镇化—低产业非农化的空间格局。③浙江省大部分县市人口城镇化与产业非农化耦合水平处于较高水平以上,无明显空间差异;人口半城镇化与产业非农化以中度耦合和较高度耦合水平为主,2005—2014年间中度耦合县域逐渐转变成较高度耦合,在空间分布上出现明显空间差异。④相较于人口城镇化和产业非农化耦合度不断上升的特征,人口半城镇化与产业非农化存在动态耦合关系,与人口城镇化水平呈倒“U”型分布,倒“U”型拐点在人口城镇化水平的55%左右,浙江省大部分县市处于倒“U”型分布的左侧阶段,人口半城镇化与产业非农化的耦合发展可以提高人口城镇化水平,同时注意拐点右侧需结合产业升级、户籍制度改革等手段促进半城镇化人口市民化。     

山东半岛人口城市化与土地城市化时空耦合协调关系研究

将山东半岛作为研究区域,建立人口城市化与土地城市化质量指标体系,采用均方差权值法和耦合协调模型,计算山东半岛城市群人口城市化和土地城市化质量指数及二者的耦合度和协调发展度。从时空两个维度分析了山东半岛人口城市化与土地城市化质量的耦合关系和协调发展情况。结果表明:①城市化水平只能反映城市化的速度,并不等同于城市化质量,土地城市化较快的城市,在土地城市化质量上反而较低。②从时间序列上看,山东半岛城市群自1999年到2010年,土地城市化速度明显快于人口城市化速度,2004年起半岛城市群城市土地面积迅猛增长,土地城市化质量开始明显低于人口城市化质量。③从空间格局上看,山东半岛城市群8地市总体协调发展度偏低,烟台、日照、威海三市的人口城市化质量和土地城市化质量耦合度较低。     

流域“环境——经济——社会”复合系统耦合协调时空分异研究——以金沙江为例

以流域为视角,构建"环境—经济—社会"复合系统耦合协调评价指标体系,采用耦合协调模型分析2001—2016年金沙江流域"环境—经济—社会"复合系统耦合协调度演变趋势,并结合GIS和泰尔指数分析其空间异质性。结果表明:(1)从时序角度看,金沙江流域"环境—经济—社会"复合系统耦合协调度整体呈波动上升态势,协调类型实现濒临失调衰退至良好协调的逐步升级;(2)从空间差异看,金沙江流域耦合协调状态区域差异明显且组内非均衡性显著,耦合协调类型呈现三角格局、半包格局、中心—外围格局、西北—东南格局的依次演化进程。建议金沙江流域走全域绿色发展之路,高效引领长江经济带高质量协调发展。     

新型城镇化与城市低碳发展时空耦合关系及驱动力因素分析

高质量发展背景下,追求城市低碳发展是新型城镇化建设的目标之一。针对全国30个省份,构建了综合评价指标体系,采用耦合协调度模型分析新型城镇化与城市低碳发展时空耦合关系,借助空间计量模型分析影响两者关系的驱动力因素。结果显示:(1)新型城镇化与城市低碳发展综合评价指数均呈稳步上升、持续下滑、波动上升、波动下滑四种特征,我国东、中、西部地区均有分布。(2)时间序列看,耦合协调度除个别地区呈波动上升外,其余均呈稳步上升态势;空间格局看,不同年份各地区呈不同耦合协调类型;2016年耦合协调度高于全国平均值的省份主要集中于中西部地区,已经发生转变。(3)空间计量结果看,耦合协调度具有较强的正向溢出效应,且平均气温、相对湿度、城镇化率、地区产业结构、工业绿色转型水平、PM₁₀浓度及环境规制对耦合协调度呈显著影响。     

粮食主产区农业生态效率与新型城镇化耦合协调研究北大核心

以中国13个粮食主产区2010—2019年的面板数据为基础,综合运用非期望产出的SBM模型、熵值法、耦合协调度模型、相对发展模型和GIS空间分析方法,分析了粮食主产区农业生态效率和新型城镇化耦合协调的时空分异特征。研究结果表明:粮食主产区的农业生态效率和新型城镇化的整体水平均呈现出上升趋势;耦合度保持在0.5左右,长期处于拮抗阶段,空间分布上表现为“东高西低”的格局;耦合协调度逐年上升,在空间布局上呈现出“东高西低,南高北低”的局面。基于此,提出推动农业生产绿色集约发展,持续提高农业生态效率;坚持以人为本的核心理念,切实提升新型城镇化质量;因地制宜采取差异化举措,推动区域协调与城乡统筹的对策建议。     

湖北省人口—土地—产业城镇化的时空分异与动态耦合分析

基于城乡人口、土地与产业发展的内在关系,构建人口、土地与产业城镇化测度指标,综合运用三角模型和动态耦合度模型,分析2009—2016年湖北省人口、土地与产业城镇化的时空分异特征,识别三者城镇化动态耦合关系和演进规律,结果表明:①湖北省人口、土地与产业城镇化分异特征显著,城镇化属于典型的产业带动型,形成以武汉为主中心,以宜昌、襄阳为副中心的产业城镇化发展格局,城镇化水平高的县域在空间上具有集聚特征,其城镇化的"溢出效应"提升周边县域城镇化水平;②湖北省人口、土地与产业城镇化的静态耦合度呈上升式演进趋势,县域人口、土地与产业城镇化优劣差距明显缩小,县域间城镇化发展逐渐呈现均衡化态势;③湖北省人口、土地与产业城镇化的动态耦合度明显低于静态耦合度,由于人口、土地与产业城镇化上升空间的有限性和社会经济转型压力,经济发达县域更易表现出人口、土地与产业动态变化的不一致性。     

重庆市新型城镇化发展质量评价与比较分析

基于对新型城镇化发展内涵的理解,运用AHP层次分析法,构建包括城镇化发展水平和效率两个子系统的新型城镇化发展质量评价指标体系,采用重庆市1996—2014年统计年鉴数据,通过计算机拟合计算并根据结果对重庆市城镇化发展质量进行综合测评,将重庆市与其他中心城市的城镇化发展质量结果进行横向比较分析。研究表明:新型城镇化发展质量应综合考察人口、土地、产业城镇化水平和经济增长贡献率、发展要素产出率、社会发展质量、生态环境质量等城镇化效率及其区域协同程度;重庆市新型城镇化发展质量虽然在快速提高,但仍远落后于东部中心城市;重庆市的人口、土地、产业发展要素与资源利用方式、生态环境之间匹配度相对较好,可持续发展潜力较大,应加快转变发展方式,优化要素配置和城镇体系格局,推进城乡统筹进程,不断提高城镇化发展质量。     

县域城镇化与人口回流耦合关系研究——基于湖南省88个县(市)数据的分析

在国家实施乡村振兴战略和县域人口回流趋势明显的背景下,实现人口回流与县域城镇化协调发展显得尤为重要。运用复杂系统理论探讨人口回流与县域城镇化相互作用机理,进而构建县域城镇化评价体系以及人口回流与县域城镇化耦合关系模型,以中部人口大省湖南省为例,运用耦合协调度模型、GIS技术对县域城镇化与人口回流水平以及两者之间的耦合协调度进行测度和空间可视化表达。研究表明:①县域城镇化是人口、产业、基础设施与公共服务各系统协调发展的过程,人口回流与县域城镇化之间存在复杂的交互关系;②湖南各县域整体上人口城镇化、产业发展相对滞后,人口回流与县域城镇化耦合协调度低,且空间分异特征明显。     

Marx and Menger on value: as many similarities as differences

This paper argues that, as far as theories of value and moneyare concerned, Marx and Menger have more in common than hasbeen traditionally maintained. Each of them had his own abstractconcept of value, distinct from labour or utility and priorto prices. Moreover, both proposed theories of value form andprovided explanations of the origin of money. These conceptsand theories can hardly be found in the works of Smith and Ricardo,nor in those of Jevons and Walras, because they were primarilyconcerned with the determination of exchange ratios. Furthermore,Marx and Menger become more sharply divided owing to their similarities.They shared many questions to which they offered opposite answers.     

瑞典开展科技评估的实践及启示

本文对瑞典政府开展的多层次科技评估实践活动进行了系统梳理,重点介绍了瑞典在开展国家科技计划实施绩效评估、科技创新政策实施效果评估、科研机构运行情况评估、中小企业创新能力评估、国际科技合作评估等方面的典型案例,分析了这些评估活动的组织实施模式、主要评估结论及评估结果的应用等。最后,从四个方面总结了瑞典开展科技评估活动的经验与启示。     

The firm as an interactor: firms as vehicles for habits and routines

This paper pursues a research agenda inspired by Richard Nelson and Sidney Winters Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change (1982). This seminal work applied the Darwinian concepts of variation, replication and selection to the evolution of firms. It proposed a level of evolution, replication and selection at a level higher than individuals or genes, involving the replication and selection of routines and institutions. Significantly, the applicability or otherwise of these Darwinian concepts depends on precise definitions of terms such as replication and selection. The present essay builds on previous work where the concepts of replication (Godfrey-Smith, 2000; Aunger, 2002; Hodgson, 2003b) and selection (Price, 1995; Frank, 1998; Knudsen, 2002b, 2003) have been refined. We deploy the key concepts of replicator and interactor from the modern philosophy of biology (Hull, 1981, 1988). It is shown that while habits and routines can be regarded as replicators, there is a case for regarding firms and similarly cohesive organizations as interactors. We explore some of the implications of this result and provide an important component in the construction of a multiple-level evolutionary theory, involving replicating units at several socio-economic levels.JEL Classification: B25, B52, D20, D83, L20Correspondence to: Geoffrey M. Hodgson, Malting House, 1 Burton End, West Wickham, Cambridgeshire CB1 6SD, UK     

Inputs and institutions as conservative elements

Ludwig von Mises argued that capital goods were “conservative elements” that constrain future production decisions. Similarly, social capital and institutions also constrain future production decisions. These insights are applied to the institutional transformation of the post-Reconstruction American South. It is argued that the structure of social capital that developed in the South was inappropriate to the formal institutions that emerged as a result of the Civil War and Reconstruction. The tensions between institutions and social capital are examined in the context of racist lynching.

区域科技需求强度的综合评价方法与应用

选取经济社会发展综合水平、产业发展水平和科技发展水平三个一级指标以及相应的十六个二级指标,构建区域科技需求强度的综合评价指标体系。使用这一指标体系,对北部湾经济区科技需求强度进行评价,并与广西各经济区、区外地区进行比较。北部湾经济区的科技需求强度处于广西中游水平,高于广西平均水平也高于湖南、贵州,不过远低于广东。修正、建立产业科技需求强度评价指标体系,评价北部湾经济区各产业科技需求强度。对北部湾经济区科技需求强度变化趋势的预测,表明其未来几年将呈快速增长态势。应做好北部湾经济区所需科技的廓清、遴选工作,确定科技尤其是关键共性技术的需求内容,以此推进北部湾经济区的科技发展。     

Nixon and Ford as ex-post Keynesians

Reestimation of a growth rate version of the St. Louis equation suggests that the equation does believe in fiscal policy, but only for the Nixon-Ford administrations.     

动态能力与知识管理比较研究及其作用机理

企业需要培育动态能力以应对动态的经营环境,实现持续竞争优势。部分学者以知识为切入点来解释动态能力,形成了动态能力"知识观"。首先对动态能力"知识观"进行述评;然后,系统阐述了动态能力与知识管理理论在理论来源、研究边界方面的不同及两者之间的关系;最后,论文引入了组织学习的概念,构建了知识管理、组织学习与动态能力的相互作用机理模型,剖析三者之间的作用机理及其对持续组织绩效的影响关系。     

OPEC as a political and economical entity

This paper assumes that the decision makers of OPEC (or at least of its core members) are interested in both profits and political payoffs (support, popularity, being a hero of the Arab or Islamic street, etc.). The oil weapon, i.e. a reduction of output is the most powerful instrument to obtain political payoffs from harming the West, which can be also profitable in the short run due to the high prices implied by sluggish demand for OPEC oil. The analysis shows that this political objective reduces longrun supply and includes the possibility that it is optimal to ‘kill the goose that lays the golden eggs’ if initial demand is below a threshold (and multiple steady states exist).     

Nano-worlds as Schumpeterian emergence and Polanyian double-movements

The overarching question raised in this special issue is whether societies can, do or indeed should steer new and emergent science and technological development and its management on to trajectories construed as more or less 'desirable'. It therefore sits at the interface of two arenas. These are governance: processes of shaping/steering emergent technologies and markets; and sustainability: normative agendas incorporating a range of potentially competing conjectures and internally inconsistent desires such as to facilitate rather than stifle innovation, to enable economic development, to anticipate or deploy strategies to cope with risk and uncertainty, and to encourage technological developments that benefit rather than harm humans, their quality of life and the natural environment. Despite the potential for apparent empirical inconsistencies and contradictions that manifest as outcomes of the negotiation of these aims, there is (pace Karl Polanyi) a normative entry point to all of the articles and the material they draw upon, which is the idea that markets and technologies should be the handmaiden of societies, not vice versa.

It is now widely recognized that 'nanotechnology' is a diverse set of feasible procedures emerging from scientific possibilities to enable the production of artefacts at the nanoscale creating new products, processes and services. Attention has to be paid to the desirability of these artefacts, which involve social, economic, ecologic, political and ethical matters that surround their emergence. The purpose of this special issue is to set out the current and future prospects for the widespread use (or innovation) of technological convergence at the nanoscale to create nano-artefacts, and the needs for governance and regulation that will accompany these innovations.