基于互联网的平台型企业商业模式创新研究述评

在对近年来发表的国内外关于平台型企业商业模式创新研究文献进行回溯的基础上,分析了平台企业内涵,并在给定商业模式创新内涵的基础上,对基于互联网平台企业商业模式创新路径、特征和关键成功要素进行了详细分析,构建了平台企业商业模式创新理论框架模型,为下一步深入研究奠定了坚实基础。     

Seasonal models of peak electric load demand

Energy consumption in a pilgrim city belonging to a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) country exhibits strong seasonal pattern due to higher demand in summer season and additional load during the pilgrimage months. The pilgrimage month's timing is not fixed in the Gregorian calendar. The event varies according to the lunar calendar called the Hegira calendar, which lags behind the former by approximately 14 days in a year. Ten seasonal demand models are developed to model energy estimate for a GCC pilgrimage city. Among the long-range forecast models, three trigonometric models, a multiplicative model, and a multivariate model using categorical variables are considered. Further, a composite nonlinear model whose coefficients are nonlinear is suggested. This model combines the seasonality extracted from a multivariate regression model and a model that represents the peak electric load pattern. Adopting least square fit of a chi-square error function expanded by parabolic expansion, the parameters of the nonlinear model are identified. Moreover, smoothing-based techniques, such as moving average, double exponential smoothing, Winter's, and a multiplicative seasonal model, are suggested. The peak electric load model on lunar and solar calendars is closely related, and the deference in fitting error can be attributed to the magnitude of data. Computational results and statistical tests are presented to analyze the models. It is observed that the multiplicative model performs better to predict the peak electric load demand.     

数字背景下新华书店商业模式的多样性

在市场和数字技术发展的压力下,新华书店传统的零售商业模式面临着生死存亡的挑战。鉴于此,分析新华书店如何利用自身优势实现由单一的零售商业模式向多样性的商业模式演变,阐述新华书店如何通过多样性的商业模式创造价值。     

Macroeconomic implications of dynamically inconsistent preferences

Despite the widespread use of models of intertemporal choices in economics, previous studies have assumed that intertemporal preferences are dynamically consistent. This paper provides a fresh perspective on propagation mechanisms of a typical macroeconomic shock in a model with dynamically inconsistent preferences. To this end, I develop a prototypical neoclassical model that features dynamically inconsistent preferences to explore dynamic responses of key macro-aggregates, discounted cumulative effects and some characteristics of aggregate fluctuations in response to a technology shock. The main findings reveal that (a) consumption and investment in the proposed model show a larger increase than those in a standard neoclassical model; (b) unlike the standard model, the proposed model yields a short-run decline in labor, which is corroborated by previous studies; (c) all of these dynamic responses in the proposed model deliver smaller cumulative output effects; (d) the proposed model does a reasonably good job of matching key characteristics of aggregate fluctuations with the counterparts observed in the postwar U.S. data. The present-bias and sophistication effects are the linchpin of these main results. Various analyses on a set of different parameter values are also discussed.     

Persistence of Shocks to Output in Austria and Theories of Economic Growth

The paper analyzes the degree of output persistence in GDP in order toempirically discriminate between the Solow growth model, the perfect competition endogenous growth model and the imperfect competition endogenous growth model for the case of Austria. Wefind that a shock in the growth rate of output induces a permanent and larger effect on the level of GDP. This leads us to refute the Solow growth model and the perfect competition model of endogenous growth.We may not reject the imperfect competition growth model.     

An Evaluation of Alternative Methods of Forecasting Australian Inflation

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the forecast of Australian inflation based on four alternative procedures: a univariate time series model, an interest rate model, an error correction model and a public survey of inflation forecasts. We derive estimates of expected and unexpected inflation from each of the methods and compare the out-of-sample forecasting results. Based on a range of evaluation criteria, the time series model dominates the other models, with the interest rate model, the error correction model and the survey forecasts following in that order.     

The Doctoral Origins of Economics Faculty and the Education of New Economics Doctorates

For the open economy, the workhorse model in intermediate textbooks still is the Mundell-Fleming model, which basically extends the investment and savings, liquidity preference and money supply (IS-LM) model to open economy problems. The authors present a simple New Keynesian model of the open economy that introduces open economy considerations into the closed economy consensus version and that still allows for a simple and comprehensible analytical and graphical treatment. Above all, their model provides an efficient tool kit for the discussion of the costs and benefits of fixed and flexible exchange rates, which also was at the core of the Mundell-Fleming model.     

Porter model of economic development at the back of an envelope

The Porter model of economic development links the phases of development with national competitiveness. His model lies at the heart of the Global Competitiveness Index. It appears, curiously enough, that there is nowhere in the economics literature a concise explanation of the Porter model of economic development. This paper not only fills this gap but also draws the line of separation between formal economic models and narrative economic models; provides a rigorous presentation of Porter model of economic development; distinguishes between the Porter development path and Porter's law of economic development; strips Porter model to its bare essentials in a single picture; and finally, shows that the Porter model satisfies the condition known as the way the world works (www) constraint.     

A disequilibrium macroeconomic model of the Belgian economy : The Maribel II model of the Planning Bureau

This paper describes the Maribel II model, a model used by the Belgian Planning Bureau for analysing and simulating macroeconomic changes in the Belgian economy. Its main feature is that it is a disequilibrium model (for both the product and the labour market). During the construction of the model considerable attention was given to its theoretical underpinning. The steady state properties show that the mechanisms are mainly classical with a strong dependence on foreign influences. The multiplier analysis confirms the relatively small multipliers in Belgium and also shows the richness that a disequilibrium model provides for analysing particular policies.     

Estimation of Biological and Economic Parameters of a Bioeconomic Fisheries Model Using Dynamical Data Assimilation

A new approach of model parameter estimation is used with simulated measurements to recover both biological and economic input parameters of a natural resource model. The data assimilation technique is the variational adjoint method (VAM) for parameter estimation. It efficiently combines time series of artificial data with a simple bioeconomic fisheries model to optimally estimate the model parameters. Using identical twin experiments, it is shown that the parameters of the model can be retrieved. The procedure provides an efficient way of calculating poorly known model parameters by fitting model results to simulated data. In separate experiments with exact and noisy data, we have demonstrated that the VAM can be an efficient method of analyzing bioeconomic data.     

服务型领导理论模型的演化与检验

服务型领导是近年来领导学和管理学关注的热点问题。自美国学者Patterson于2003年提出比较严谨的服务性领导理论模型以来,该理论模型得到了学术界广泛的关注和进一步的研究。探讨了服务型领导最初的理论模型以及在此基础上演化出的其他服务型领导理论模型的发展过程,可以看出,未来应进一步探索本土化服务型领导模式。     

The Microeconomics of an R&D-Based Model of Endogenous Growth

This paper explores the microeconomic structure underlying a class of endogenous growth models in which product differentiation and stochastic quality growth coexist. The general equilibrium model generates a stationary stochastic equilibrium in which a nondegenerate ergodic distribution of firm size depends systematically on parameters of the model. Features of the model necessary for stable endogenous aggregate growth are explored, and predictions of the model are compared with microeconometric evidence on R&D intensity, firm growth, and concentration.     

建筑施工企业项目财务管控模式及其改进探讨

目前我国建筑施工企业项目来源性质趋向于多样化,财务型管控模式在建筑施工企业的项目管理中占据了较大比例。然而,财务型管控模式在建筑施工企业的实际操作中存在一些问题。文章在全面分析建筑施工企业项目财务管控模式不足之处的基础上,结合建筑施工企业的实际情况进行多方面综合改进,形成改进的财务管控模式。这种模式克服了目前财务管控模式的不足,提出了绩效考核制度,建立了多方激励的利益分配模式,使得建筑施工企业项目参与各方的目标均得以满足,同时规避现有财务管控可能给项目参与各方及社会所带来的损失。     

Dynamic implications of absence behaviour

This paper analyses the absence behaviour of workers in the context of a two-period model. The theoretical results that emerge highlight the potential benefits of analysing absenteeism within a multi-time period model as opposed to a single-time period model, which has generally been adopted by the theoretical models of absenteeism to date. Workers are employed under a two-period contract which is characterized by an experience-rated sick pay scheme. The theoretical results of the model indicate that if a worker faces such a sick pay scheme. The theoretical results of the model indicate that if a worker faces such a sick pay scheme, then the probability of absence in the current period is reduced. The empirical analysis explores the absence rates observed from a set of workers who face an experience-rated sick pay scheme. The empirical results present some support in favour of the predictions which arise from the theoretical model.     

创新基因学视角下商业模式创新方法研究

现有对商业模式创新概念的界定尚不清晰，可行的研究模型也未建立，因此亟待研究方法上的突破。基于此，将创新基因学理论引入商业模式创新探究，借助多案例探索性研究方法，对商业模式创新基因学开展了深入分析，总结出一套适用于多领域的普适性商业模式创新方法。研究结果表明，商业模式创新基因学方法具有适用性和新颖性，可视化和可操作性较强，可为多领域商业模式创新提供新思路。     

基于内涵和模型的战略变革理论探析

本文采取述评的方式对战略变革内涵和战略变革模型的研究成果进行探析,旨在系统化战略变革的内涵和模型的研究,为战略变革的进一步研究提供理论参考。首先,从过程和内容两个方面探讨了国内外学者有关战略变革内涵的研究成果。然后,在内涵研究的基础上,对战略变革模型的理性模式、认知模式、学习模式、Hakan强调学习的模型、Rajagopalan和Spreitzer的多视角模型、Ginsberg的战略变革模型、刘益和李垣的战略转换模型、冯海龙的整合的战略变革测量模型进行分析比较。     

隐马尔可夫模型算法基础探析

隐马尔可夫模型是一个具有双重随机过程的统计模型,已被广泛应用于语音识别、生物序列分析和管理等领域。在隐马尔可夫模型中存在三个基本问题,即学习问题、解码问题和估值问题,一般分别使用Baum-Welch算法、Viterbi算法和向前-向后算法进行解决。其中,学习问题的Baum-Welch算法本质上是EM算法在隐马尔可夫模型中的一个应用,解码问题的Viterbi算法本质上是动态规划算法在隐马尔可夫过程中的一个应用。文章就EM算法和动态规划算法进行了一定的梳理和分析,以促进对隐马尔可夫模型算法的理解。     

分析技术创新扩散过程的事件扩散新模型

针对互动扩散模型和链联接扩散模型的不足,提出了分析技术创新扩散过程的新模型——事件扩散模型,并将它与已有的扩散模型进行比较,最后通过联通公司CDMA技术扩散的实例分析,证明了应用事件扩散模型解释技术创新扩散更具有合理性和更强的适应性。     

论拉姆齐模型与现代宏观经济学的发展

拉姆齐在1928年所提出动态最优化模型(拉姆齐模型)及其重要思想湮没了30多年,直到20世纪60年代才被"重新发现",并对现代宏观经济学的发展产生了深远的影响.许多西方经济学家都认为,就理论分析框架而言,拉姆齐模型已经取代了IS-LM模型的位置,成为现代宏观经济学的研究范式.本文透过拉姆齐模型的略带喜剧意味的命运,追寻现代宏观经济学的发展轨迹.     

移植模式下企业参与研发的高校技术转移定价研究

校企合作能有效促进技术成果转化,而高校如何合理制定定价模式对校企间技术转移起到了关键作用。围绕校企技术转移中的移植模式,结合企业参与情景,构造了校企间技术转移期望效用函数,设计了高校技术转移定价模型,并通过实证求解验证了该模型,对高校确立合理的定价模式具有一定的现实指导意义。