双重委托代理下的股利政策研究

我国上市公司股权相对集中或高度集中,存在大股东与经营者、中小股东与大股东之间的双重委托代理关系,大股东利用信息不对称攫取中小股东利益.本文将股利政策作为一个可观测变量引入单层、双重委托代理模型,详细分析了降低代理成本的途径.研究结论认为,在单层和双重委托代理关系下,将股利政策作为一种信息传递机制,写入激励合同,可以降低风险成本和总代理成本.     

上市公司与投资者信息不对称分析

中国上市公司与投资者之间存在两种显著的信息不对称：逆向选择和道德风险；而解决问题的理论框架包括信息经济学中信号传递、委托代理激励和声誉模型三个理论。我们认为完善信息披露、设计最优的委托代理合同（特别要优化股权结构）和建立声誉机制是实践中行之有效的解决方法。     

上市公司治理中控制股东与中小股东的代理问题

本研究了上市公司治理中控制股东与中小股东之间委托代理关系的形成,并强调了控制股东与中小股东之间股权代理关系在市场实践中的重要性已远大于公司股东与经营层之间的委托代理关系。为研究控制股东与中小股东之间的代理成本来源,本建立了一个分析模型,研究的结果是控制股东为获得控制收益而进行的控制活动所造成的公司股权价值的损失是代理成本的来源,模型的实践意义在于：完整,严格的信息披露与股本的全部流通,是降低股权代理成本保护中小股东利益的政策着力点。     

全流通环境下投资者利益保护研究——控股股东、中小股东和经理人三方博弈分析

随着上市公司控制权的转移,投资者保护在全流通环境下有了新的内涵。文章从公司的委托代理问题出发,构建了控股股东、中小股东和经理人的三方博弈模型。各方决策的混合策略纳什均衡结果显示,股权的集中在一定程度上可以抑制公司的内部人控制;为保护投资者利益,应对控股股东和经理人的违规操作进行严厉惩罚,降低投资者的监督稽查成本,健全上市公司的治理机制。     

完善中国独立董事制度本土化的思考

独立董事制度作为“舶来品”,并不是一剂灵丹妙药,在中国上市公司大股东滥权、中小股东保护机制缺失等治理背景下,独立董事的独立性、行权能力及激励约束机制均存在一定的问题。独立董事可以看成是剩余控制权进一步社会分工的结果,股东拥有终极控制权,独立董事为上市公司的职业监管者,监管的对象是代理问题,而其本身与股东、政府、公众、董事会构成复杂的委托代理关系。因此,独立董事制度本土化的过程就是解决独立董事与本土上市公司各利益主体间的代理问题。     

双重委托代理理论:上市公司治理的另一种分析框架——兼论进一步完善中国上市公司治理的新思路

本文认为西方传统委托代理理论本质上是一种单委托代理理论 ,主要是针对以股权分散为主要特征的上市公司而构建的一种公司治理理论 ,不适合作为以股权相对集中或高度集中为主要特征的上市公司治理问题的分析框架。本文针对以股权相对集中或高度集中为主要特征的上市公司的实际情况 ,在已有的单委托代理理论的基础上 ,提出和构建了一种新的上市公司治理问题分析框架———双重委托代理理论。本文的分析表明 ,对以股权相对集中或高度集中为主要特征的上市公司而言 ,双重委托代理理论比单委托代理理论的解释力更强 ,更有利于实现降低这类公司的双重代理成本和全体股东利益的最大化。本文还依据双重委托代理理论 ,初步探讨了进一步完善中国上市公司治理的基本思路和设想。     

我国国有控股上市公司治理:现实困境及制度求解——基于双重委托代理理论的分析框架

我国国有控股上市公司脱胎于国有企业市场化转型的自我探索,由此形成了高度集中的股权结构及不平衡的权力配置特征。在此基础上,国有控股上市公司各经营主体的利益冲突更为复杂,公司大股东与经营者之间,以及大股东与中小股东之间均存在委托代理问题。为缓解国有控股上市公司中的双重委托代理问题,需厘清各方相关行为收益和成本,尽快优化和完善公司治理机制,以求得国有控股上市公司治理困境的制度解。     

委托—代理治理模式的适用性及其问题

现代主流经济学往往把委托—代理关系视为一种普遍的社会存在,把委托—代理治理视为社会经济关系的基本治理机制,它要求：设计合理的合同激励经理或员工为股东利益服务,并以法律手段给予股东恰当的权利,赋予董事会监管经理的信托责任。但是,这种治理模式在实际应用中却会遇到很大的局限：1.在现实中纯粹的委托人和代理人往往是找不到的;2.委托—代理单向治理的效果取决于监督权的完善程度和法理基础;3.委托—代理机制隐含着＂委托人会自动履行其承诺＂的前提是不现实的;4.委托—代理治理机制在实践中应用也不像理论阐述的那样普遍。特别地,委托—代理治理机制在理论思维上也存在重大缺陷：它将两个行为主体割裂开来,而没有考虑到双方的整体性,忽视了作为协作系统构成要素地位的平等性,从而无法真正地增进企业组织的有效性。     

代理理论与公司治理综述

委托-代理理论是目前公司治理研究中的主流分析框架,也是指导现实实践的一个重要理论根据.传统委托-代理理论所关注的是如何缓解股东与经理人之间的信息不对称程度,但是现实实践表明,公司治理中大股东与中小股东之间也存在着隐性代理关系.本文就代理理论在公司治理中的发展过程及逻辑进行了总结,并对代理理论发展方向进行了预测.     

委托代理关系的形成及其法律基础

委托代理问题是信息经济学研究的主要课题之一。委托代理 ,又称意定代理 ,是基于被代理人的委托授权而发生的代理 ,是最常见、最广泛适用的一种代理形式。在现代社会 ,没有代理制度 ,一切企业都将无法存在。文章指出 ,法律制度的完善是解决企业委托代理关系的基础和保障     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.     

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth*

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth are identified. Included is a discussion of his contributions on: the determinants of differences in speed of adoption of innovations; the use of patents to measure technology; the private and social returns to R&D; and spillover effects from R&D. Griliches's own evaluation of his research contribution is compared to the evaluation of others in the field, using as evidence citation counts of his works collected from the online Web of Science. Griliches's most important contribution is his 1957 Econometrica hybrid corn paper that is a foundation of the economics of technological innovation. Remarkably, the trend in annual citations to the paper has continued to increase for over 40 years. Finally, we summarize Griliches's most recent views on the practice of economics and on the most important unanswered questions in the economics of technology and growth.     

Evidence on the impact of R&D and ICT investments on innovation and productivity in Italian firms

Both research and development (R&D) and information and communication technology (ICT) investment have been identified as sources of relative innovation underperformance in Europe vis-à-vis the USA. In this article, we investigate the R&D and ICT investment at the firm level in an effort to assess their relative importance and to what extent they are complements or substitutes. We use data on a large unbalanced panel data sample of Italian manufacturing firms constructed from four consecutive waves of a survey of manufacturing firms, to estimate a version of the CDM model of R&D, innovation, and productivity [Crépon–Duguet–Mairesse 1998. Research, innovation and productivity: An econometric analysis at the firm level. Economics of Innovation and New Technology 7, no. 2: 115–58] that has been modified to include ICT investment and R&D as the two main inputs into innovation and productivity. We find that R&D and ICT are both strongly associated with innovation and productivity, with R&D being more important for innovation, and ICT investment being more important for productivity. For the median firm, rates of return to both investments are so high that they suggest considerably underinvestment in both these activities. We explore the possible complementarity between R&D and ICT in innovation and production, but find none, although we do find complementarity between R&D and worker skill in innovation.     

新员工主动社会化行为与组织承诺关系研究——以社会资本为中介变量

为了探索新员工主动社会化行为影响组织承诺的过程,本文对来自企业的401个有效样本进行了实证分析。本研究运用层级回归的方法,控制了人口统计变量的影响后,发现员工的搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为对组织承诺有直接的正面影响,同时,通过员工社会资本对员工组织承诺产生了间接的正面影响。社会资本在员工搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为影响组织承诺的机制中起部分中介作用。员工的关系构建行为对组织承诺没有显著影响,但对员工社会资本存在显著的正面影响。