Is Pricing to Market Behavior a Long-Run Phenomenon? A Non-Stationary Panel Analysis

This paper examines how the Swedish imports prices react to exchange ratechanges in the long run. It finds, through non-stationary panel analysis, thatthe Swedish import prices (for the majority of industries) change but not inproportion to exchange rate changes. The evidence from panel cointegrationalso shows that pricing behavior of the Swedish imports varies across industriesand such variations could be related to industry-specific characteristics.     

Exchange-rate pass-through and market structure

We consider a situation in whichn firms located in market 1 andm firms located in market 2 each sell a commodity which is homogeneous within each market but may differ between markets. All firms sell on both markets. Each market has its own currency. The market demand functions differ. We give some basic results on the effects of exchange-rate changes and then show the following. When these markets are independent on the cost side (constant marginal costs) and demands are linear, a reduction in the number of firms (which might result from a merger) in market 1 increases the pass-through (of an appreciation of currency 2) in market 1 and decreases the pass-through in market 2. A similar occurrence in market 2 has the opposite effect. We give conditions under which, with identical economies of scope linking the markets, the sign of the price changes will be reversed when the number of foreign firms is small enough compared to the number of local firms. However, such sign reversals cannot occur in the two markets simultaneously.     

Time-varying regional integration of stock markets in Southeast Europe

In an attempt to assess the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance, recent studies are employing disaggregated trade data to avoid aggregation bias. However, since import and export prices are not available at disaggregated level, recent studies are using export and import values rather than their volumes so that they can establish direct relation between inpayments and the exchange rate as well as between outpayments and the exchange rate. This study explores the experience of Malaysia. Bilateral inpayments and outpayments models are estimated between Malaysia and her 14 trading partners using quarterly data and bound testing approach to cointegration. The results show that while real depreciation of the ringgit has short-run effects, in the long-run it increases Malaysia's inpayments from only five trading partners.     

人民币实际汇率与进出口国别结构实证分析

笔者运用中国和美元区、日元区、欧元区(以德国为例)、韩元区、东盟区(以新加坡为代表)等五大货币区1981年～2003年的年度数据,通过Panel Date 分析人民币实际双边汇率变化对中国进出口国别结构的影响,并就1994年前后人民币实际双边汇率对进出口国别结构的影响进行了结构性诊断检验,研究结果表明:1994年前,人民币实际汇率变化与日本、美国在华进口流向指标存在着较高的正相关关系,与德国、新加坡在华进口流各指标存在着较强的负相关关系;1994年后,人民币实际汇率变化与德国、新加坡在华进口流量指标存在着较强的正相关关系.与美国、日本、韩国在华进口流量指标存在着较强的正相关关系.     

人民币汇率变动的价格传递效应——基于协整与误差修正模型的实证研究

文章使用协整与误差修正模型研究中国的汇率变动对进口价格的传递效应。研究结果表明人民币汇率变动对国内消费者价格的传递是不完全的,而且传递过程存在时滞。进口价格对人民币汇率变动的弹性远高于消费者价格对汇率变动的弹性。     

Foreign exchange reserves and import demand in a developing economy: the case of Pakistan

Conventional specifications of import demand in LDCs have commonly been plagued by implausible and unstable parameter estimates. This paper shows the importance of imposing long‐run income homogeneity and of including foreign exchange reserves when estimating import demand function for an LDC. Using several cointegration techniques, it is shown that there is one linear relationship among real imports, real income, relative import prices and real foreign exchange reserves. In addition, by employing stability tests for cointegrated systems by Hansen (1992a), the paper shows that only when foreign exchange reserves and long‐run unit‐income homogeneity are accounted for does a constant parameter, long‐run equilibrium relation emerge for Pakistan. Also, the ensuing short‐run dynamic model is constant and data‐coherent. Finally, the study provides information on the speed of adjustment to equilibrium and the median and mean time lags of adjustments of real imports to changes in their determinants. The results indicate a quick response of real imports to changes in their determinants.     

汇率冲击与劳动力市场调整——中国行业数据的经验研究

文章主要分析在汇率冲击下,中国可贸易行业1998—2009年劳动力市场的调整过程。文章利用实际有效汇率指标和动态面板估计方法分析影响劳动力市场调整的不同渠道。结果表明,汇率贬值通过出口渠道增加就业和降低工资,通过进口渠道降低就业和提高工资,通过效率渠道促进就业和降低工资。高贸易依存度行业的就业汇率弹性大于低贸易依存度行业,低加成比例行业的就业汇率弹性大于高加成比例行业,劳动力技术结构是影响就业汇率弹性的重要因素。     

转型期国有资本收益的公共福利性支出

国有资本收益支出结构取决于经营投资性支出与公共福利性支出对全民福利之边际贡献比较.一方面,随着经济的发展和转型.我国总的公共福利性支出参照国际水平,已严重滞后于自身的经济发展程度及社会公共需要.与这一转型相伴的是我国个人收入差距的扩大,要求扩大政府支出;另一方面,人均资本积累水平的提高以及国有资本盈利能力的增强为国有资本收益适量用于公共福利性支出提供了条件.从操作层面来说,各级政府的国有资本收益用于公共福利性支出比例应由全国人大来决定,且用于公共福利性支出的部分应上交中央财政、全国统筹使用.     

Input-output anatomy of import elasticities

The elasticity of imports with respect to final demand, calculated from the 1964 and 1970 input-output tables for Austria, is equal to 1.35. Input-output analysis makes it possible to show how the value of the import elasticity is related to following structural changes: i) Changes in the shares of final demand components (i.e. of consumption, capital formation and exports) on total final demand; ii) changes in the pattern of final demand components; iii) changes in the technology matrix; iv) substitution of domestic output by imports in the final demand; and v) substitution of the domestic output by imports in the intermediate demand.     

平行进口产生的充分必要条件

本文研究了长期以来困扰经济学界和企业界的平行进口问题,第一次从理论上找到了平行进口产生的充分必要条件,并且这个条件也是平行进口从高零售价国家流向低零售价国家的一个必要条件.     

Pricing,distribution and the supply of storage

The Belgian nitrogen fertilizer cartel announces each year a price schedule which is enforced during the coming twelve months. These prices are resale prices to final users and reflect changes in costs of storage. A game-theoretic model is set up to rationalize this behavior for the case of instantaneous final demands and a large number of distributors. Habit formation in final demand is then shown to lead to even more flexible prices, while transferability over time is seen to favor more rigid prices. It is finally suggested that vertical integration into a competitive distribution sector can be profitable because it restores the possibility of intertemporal price discrimination.     

Tax Expenditures on Health in Australia: 1960–61 to 1988–89

Commonwealth government tax expenditures arise because departures from the tax structure produce favourable tax treatment of particular types of activities or taxpayers. Such tax concessions can be used in the same way as direct expenditures to give effect to government policies, and in fact are often used as substitutes for direct expenditures. Although estimates of tax expenditures on health in more recent times are readily available, this form of subsidisation of the health sector has not been used heavily since the introduction of Medicare in 1984. It is for the period spanning the 1960s and the 1970s, when tax expenditures were a much more important source of health care finance, that consistent estimates are lacking. This article presents estimates of the revenue cost of income tax concessions for health in Australia over the period 1960–61 to 1988–89 and integrates these estimates into the currently available health expenditure statistics. It is concluded that failure to allow for tax expenditures on health when analysing public expenditures on health in Australia can lead to misleading conclusions about the net fiscal impact of changes in the Commonwealth's health expenditure policy. In particular, the fiscal effect of introducing Medihank in 1975 is significantly lower if account is taken of changes to tax concessions on health occurring at the same time. Likewise, the net cost of the introduction of Medicare in 1984 is overstated by measures based on direct outlays alone.     

STRATEGIC LOBBYING BY POTENTIAL INDUSTRY ENTRANTS*

A firm which lobbies government for a change in policy, say an import tariff, can increase its profits in two ways. First, the policy can increase the profits of all firms in the industry. This effect therefore involves a free-rider problem. Second, a firm's lobbying expenditures may signal other firms about its costs and interests. For example, a firm with low marginal costs may profit much from an import ban. Other firms which see that this firm expects to profit much from the ban may decide not to enter the industry. This may further increase the low-cost firm's profits.     

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AS AN INSTRUMENT FOR THE ANALYSIS OF THE SOURCES OF STAGFLATION AN EXAMPLE: FRANCE AND GERMANY, 1971–79

Stagflation is a combination of an increasing rate of inflation with a decreasing rate of real growth. It appears when the inflationary gap of production costs raises faster than the inflationary gap of expenditures on Gross Domestic Marketable Product. The decomposition of these two gaps into their main elements gives then the possibility of determining the sources of the inflationary increase in costs and the causes of the relative retardation of the inflationary increase in expenditures. The main cause of stagflation in 1974 for France and Germany was the huge rise in oil prices which had not been immediately followed by an equal rise in prices of their exports. The inflationary rise in wages is an almost permanent factor of stagflation in France; in Germany its responsibility is involved only before 1975. In France the insufficient increase in the inflationary gap of expenditures was mainly due to the restrictive monetary policy and to the official price regulation. In Germany the restrictive monetary policy also contributed to the slowdown in demand in 1974 and 1975. In 1977, on the contrary, the main cause of stagflation was the slackening of export demands due to the world recession and the revaluation of the DM.     

Pricing-to-market in Swedish Exports

Fluctuations in prices of Swedish exports to five countries are investigated in this paper. We test whether there are systematic differences between prices to different markets and whether relative export prices are affected by macroeconomic conditions in destination countries. The test results indicate that deviations from no pricing-to-market and neutrality of money are quite common and persistent. Over a sample of 15 years, long-run monetary neutrality is rejected in almost half of the cases. In most cases, the degree of pricing-to-market is also affected by aggregate demand in export markets.     

规模经济、人民币汇率与民营企业进出口——兼论民营企业进出口的影响因素

分析了包括规模经济、汇率在内的影响我国民营企业进出口的主要因素。结论认为,人民币升值导致其出口下降,但进口反而减少,人民币升值对民营企业的负面影响较大;随着民营企业规模的扩大,其进出口规模也在增加;2004年贸易经营权的放开对民营企业出口没有明显的刺激效应,但对进口有明显影响;研发支出增加对民营企业出口没有明显影响,但对进口有正面影响;人均国民收入的增加和民营企业进出口没有太大关系。     

An Empirical Investigation of the Ratchet Effect in the OECD, 1985–2009

This paper employs a reduced form structuralist model of inflation in the OECD over the period 1985–2009 to find out whether domestic prices respond symmetrically to rising and falling import prices. We find that the response is asymmetrical: domestic prices rise when import prices rise but they do not fall when import prices fall. Our finding thus confirms the presence of a ratchet effect in the sample countries during the sample period, and implies that factors – such as exchange rate fluctuations and movements in tariff rates – that influence import prices tend to be inflationary.     

Citizen Preference and Public Education in Australia: An Analysis of Interstate Differences*

In the centrally financed public education system of Australia, interstate differences in per student educational spending have been interpreted as measures of efficiency. An alternative explanation is that the variation reflects differences in citizen preference. An analysis of a survey of citizen opinion demonstrates that, while the relative efficiency explanation cannot be ruled out, it is likely that the variance in per student expenditures is a reflection of the preferences of the citizens of each State. It appears that States come close to satisfying the demands of their median voter.     

论我国现阶段的汇率政策——兼谈人民币应否贬值问题

目前发生的通货紧缩,总需求不足的根本原因在于总需求发生流程梗阻。因此,以扩大内需为主的支出增减型政策如财政政策货币政策的效果是有限的。中国的经济改革的深入进行需要一个比较高的经济增长速度,在内需难以启动的条件下,只能由外需即净出口的扩大来完成这一任务。汇率政策便成为最优的选择。本文的研究表明,人民币汇率变动对经济增长的贡献度是很高的。人民币贬值有其必要性及可行性。     

人民币升值能解决美国对华贸易赤字吗?——基于1994～2005年间月度数据的贸易弹性分析

文章以1994年1月到2005年3月的月度数据为样本,用ARDL框架下的协整方法,对中美贸易的收入弹性和实际汇率弹性进行了经验分析。分析后发现:第一,我国对美进出口的收入弹性都是显著的,并且我国对美国出口的收入弹性约为我国从美进口的收入弹性的6倍,但是我国对美进口和出口的实际汇率弹性都是不显著的。因此,文章认为人民币汇率对中美贸易没有显著影响,人民币汇率升值将无法改善美国的对华贸易收支。