生产性服务业与城市协调发展研究述评与展望

随着经济全球化的推进以及国际分工体系的重组,生产性服务业已经发展成为推动城市经济发展、重建城市竞争格局的重要力量。本文从分工理论、价值链理论和产业集聚理论等视角分析了城市生产性服务业的发展基础,以及对城市经济增长、制造业发展和空间结构优化等方面的影响,并对未来的研究趋势进行了展望。     

发展现代服务业的财税政策研究

随着经济全球化和信息资源进入现代主流经济,现代服务业将发展成为最具活力的产业部门.大力发展现代服务业对推动经济增长方式转变和加快构建和谐社会都具有极其重要的意义.本文从现代服务业概念和特点入手,阐述了当前我国现代服务业发展中存在的主要问题,并对当前制约现代服务业发展的财税政策因素进行了分析和研究,最后提出了发展现代服务业的财税政策应采取的措施.     

论生产性服务业的发展与分工的深化

对现代生产性服争业与分工深化的关系进行了考察。认为现代生产性服务业改变了服务产品的内容、性质以及在国民经济中的地位与作用，突出表现在它一方面推动分工的深化，另一方面又是分工经济的“黏合剂”。正因为这一功能使现代生产性服务业成为经济增长的牵引力和经济竞争力提高的助推器。     

服务业结构与服务业发展实证研究

改革开放以来,伴随着中国经济的高速增长,服务业的发展也取得了很大的成绩,但是从服务业内部结构分析,不同类型服务业发展水平存在很大的差距。该文从要素密集度、劳动生产率、新技术的应用率三方面分析了我国服务业的发展特征;从服务业的内部结构,即分配性服务、生产性服务、社会服务和个人服务四个方面对服务业的影响因素进行了实证研究,并探讨了服务业发展的政策思路。     

服务经济的微观分析——基于生产与交易的分工均衡

与目前有关服务经济的研究不同,本文用一个新兴古典的佣金中间商1模型来分析交易服务的经济性质。主要结果表明：在市场分工中,交易服务是一种能够对产品的交易产生正网络效应的特殊商品;由中间商数量所决定的服务网络规模会影响市场一体化程度;制度效率和服务交易效率的改进将提高人均真实收入,当制度效率比服务交易效率的改进程度更大,或当服务业的劳动生产率提高,从生产部门向交易部门的劳动力迁移将增加;而改进的制度效率也将扩大产品和服务的市场容量;因而,经济增长呈现为以服务业发展为导向的增长。本文对于服务业缘何已成为发达国家的主导产业给出了一个微观解释,也为中国通过服务业来推动经济增长提供了一个理论视角。     

服务经济的微观分析-基于生产与交易的分工均衡

与目前有关服务经济的研究不同,本文用一个新兴古典的佣金中间商1模型来分析交易服务的经济性质.主要结果表明:在市场分工中,交易服务是一种能够对产品的交易产生正网络效应的特殊商品;由中间商数量所决定的服务网络规模会影响市场一体化程度;制度效率和服务交易效率的改进将提高人均真实收入,当制度效率比服务交易效率的改进程度更大,或当服务业的劳动生产率提高,从生产部门向交易部门的劳动力迁移将增加;而改进的制度效率也将扩大产品和服务的市场容量;因而,经济增长呈现为以服务业发展为导向的增长.本文对于服务业缘何已成为发达国家的主导产业给出了一个微观解释,也为中国通过服务业来推动经济增长提供了一个理论视角.     

从开放宏观的视角看环境污染问题:一个综述

在全球化背景下,伴随着国际间的要素流动,环境问题越来越多地被赋予了全球化的内容。本文将环境与增长、环境与贸易、环境与就业、环境与人口迁移等研究文献纳入到一个开放宏观分析框架中,通过文献研究发现,国际分工使"南—北"之间存在了多纬度的"环境不平等":首先,环境与经济增长问题先后经历了三个发展阶段,即罗马俱乐部提出的"增长极限说"、环境库兹涅茨曲线假说、贸易与环境库兹涅茨曲线假说相关性的争论。随着研究的推进,环境与增长问题越来越类似于一枚硬币的两面,难以同时兼得,但是,由于国际分工模式的差异,发展中国家却为发达国家提供了"污染储藏地"。其次,虽然环境规制使企业损失了部分"棕色"就业,但是环境保护同样能够创造"绿色"就业,然而,在国际分工背景下,环境保护是否有利于发展中国家的整体就业还存在着争议。最后,环境恶化已经导致一些国家出现了"环境难民"以及随之而来的人口迁移。到2050年,全世界由气候变化引起的人口迁移很可能达到5千万至7亿。然而,穷国和富国的环境压力和迁移能力却不尽相同,从某种程度上,这也是国际分工产生的间接影响,但是,关于这一问题的研究还十分有限。     

迈向贸易强国之路：构建中国服务贸易竞争优势

世界经济正向服务型经济转型,经济全球化开始向服务业全球化发展。这给我国经济结构的调整与优化。改变经济增长方式,建立创新型国家带来了难得的发展机遇。在分析了中国服务业和服务贸易国际竞争力方面的现状和问题的基础上,以国家竞争优势理论为基础设计了构建中国服务贸易竞争优势的“钻石”模型,并对如何提高我国服务贸易国际竞争力提出了一些有益的建议措施。     

服务业国际转移下的北京服务贸易

随着经济全球化加深和国际产业结构调整,服务业大规模的国际转移成为新一轮经济全球化的显著特征。北京积极抓住服务业国际转移的新机遇,充分利用中国服务贸易领域日益开放的宏观环境和北京服务业良好的基础以及各类服务人才集聚的优势,大力提升北京服务业国际化水平,成为中国大陆服务贸易领先的城市。本文分析了北京服务贸易发展现状、主要推动因素,并提出进一步发展的路径选择。     

国际分工新特点与我国参与国际分工的新思路

按照马克思主义经济学的基本观点和方法,当代经济全球化的发展从本质上讲是国际分工深化的结果。加入世贸组织以后,我国要在更宽的领域、更广的范围和更高的层次上参与国际分工的竞争和合作,就离不开对当前国际分工新特点的把握。那么,当前国际分工发展的新特点是什么?我们认为,从产品分工向要素分工发展,是当代国际分工的一个重要特点。     

信息产业的区位因素分析

本文以当今席卷全球的信息革命、经济全球化和新国际分工为背景，从传统区位理论在解释信息产业区位时所面临的问题入手，分析了影响信息产业区位的主要因素。     

服务贸易自由化与中国应对策略的探析

服务贸易自由化是在服务贸易重要性显现以及全球经济一体化背景下提出的。随着国际服务贸易发展程度的深化,全球经济一体化进程的加快,以及《服务贸易总协定》的签订,服务贸易自由化可谓是大势所趋。这必将对世界各国服务贸易的发展和政府经济政策的制定产生众多深远的影响。服务贸易自由化既具有积极的经济效应,又具有一定的负面效应。作为既是发展中国家也是WTO成员方的中国,服务贸易自由化对我们来说是机遇也是挑战。我们必须要在这一趋势下认清中国服务贸易发展的现状,抓住机遇,并勇于迎接挑战,制定符合中国实际的应对策略,提高中国服务贸易的竞争力。     

知识型服务业的质量管理浅析

“服务经济时代”随着知识经济与经济全球化的到来,向我们慢慢接近。目前我国知识型服务业基本上还处于发展的起步阶段,但同时也存在着巨大的发展潜力,面临着承接国外转移的良好机遇。那么,我们在关注我国知识型服务业发展的时候,首先就应关注其质量,因为高质量就是高竞争力,本文通过对知识型服务业的概念及服务质量特征进行概括和分析,对我国知识型服务业的质量管理进行了对策研究。     

Beyond the income effect of international trade on ethnic wars in Africa

We use detailed information on the location of agricultural and mining production to approximate international trade for different ethnic groups in order to study its impact on ethnic conflicts in Africa between 1993 and 2010. The goal is to go beyond the income effects of trade to study the residual effects of globalization on conflicts. We find that once we control for income but also for a wide variety of different factors in conflicts (using political variables and fixed effects), the international trade by ethnic groups has a pacific impact on conflicts. While this peaceful impact of trade is mainly found in the trade in agricultural products, it does not have a significant impact on the international trade in mining products. Finally, we propose an original two-step analysis showing that exports significantly reduce conflicts by affecting time-varying national characteristics. We interpret this result as an indication that globalization in Africa has participated in the formation of new national identities with peaceful effects between ethnic groups.     

DEMOCRACY AND GLOBALIZATION

The relationship between democracy and globalization has been a subject of both scholarly and policy debate. Some argue that the two go hand in hand – that unrestricted international transactions encourage political accountability and transparency and that politically free societies are least likely to restrict the mobility of goods and services. But others argue that democracies, in which special interests that suffer from foreign competition have voice, are more likely to have closed markets, and vice versa. Our analysis differs from its predecessors in three ways. We seek to uncover general patterns by considering as long a period as possible and all countries with the relevant data. We consider multiple dimensions of globalization, analyzing both trade liberalization and capital account liberalization. And we estimate these relationships using an instrumental variables strategy that allows us to confront the issue of simultaneity. Our findings support the existence of positive relationships between democracy and globalization.     

西宁市开发区企业的供应销售物流网络结构特征

借助Ucinet社会网络分析工具,构建企业供应销售两类网络,尝试分析内陆高原城市开发区供应销售物流网络的结构特征。研究表明:①供应物流网络在国内呈"U"型结构,即东西部强,中部弱;国际上供应商较少。供应货物流动结构呈地方化、非全球化的特征,表现出显著的地方资源导向。②销售物流网络格局跟供应物流网络大致相似,国内总体也呈"U"型结构;国际上呈现全球化销售较弱。销售货物流动结构呈地方化、弱全球化的特征,表现出企业主要服务青海省内需求的基本特征,同时也表现出东部化、全球化的趋势。③医药卫生、轻工食品及服装纺织行业,产业链完整,可提升地区产业结构;冶金矿产、石油化工及机械电子电工行业,在产业链中处于中游阶段,对产业升级影响较弱;交通运输行业,在产业链中处于下游阶段,一定程度上能促进产业结构的优化升级以及经济发展方式的转变。     

HOW DO HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES IN JAPAN COMPETE FOR REGULAR,FULL‐TIME JOBS? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED UPON AN INTERNET SURVEY OF THE YOUTH*

We use a survey of Japanese youth within 10 years after high school graduation to investigate impacts of academic and social skills on their success in the job market. We find three major factors account for the job market outcome immediately after school: school characteristics and job‐placement services, academic performance, and social skills, including negative impacts of problematic behaviors at school. Second, when we run a probit regression on whether or not the surveyed individuals hold regular, full‐time jobs, we find the persistent but declining (over age) impact of the job placement immediately after school. Moreover, we find that the impact of variables pertaining to social skills remain significant even after controlling for the job‐placement outcome after school, whereas other variables, such as grade point average or attributes of high schools, are largely irrelevant to the current employment status.     

Exploring outward FDI and the choice of destination: evidence from Swedish firm-level data

Using Swedish firm-level data on all firms and their affiliates abroad, we investigate what observable firm and country characteristics affect the size of an affiliate in a particular destination. We employ the richness of the data to investigate the importance of destination country factors in explaining firm outward FDI activities and distinguish between the factors that affect such activities in manufacturing versus services firms as well as vertical versus horizontal investments. Our results lend support to existing theories of multinational activity of manufacturing but not services firms. We also find observable differences between vertical and horizontal manufacturing firms that are not always explained by theory.     

BUSINESS CYCLE,CURRENCY AND TRADE,REVISITED

This paper provides long‐run historical evidence for the link between business cycle synchronization, trade and the exchange rate regime. Using data from a large number of industrialized countries and a group of Asian economies, we examine this link in three sub‐periods: the first globalization period (1870–1913), the bloc economy period (1915–1959) and the second globalization period (1960–2004). The business cycle is identified as the series of deviates from a Hodrick–Prescott filtered trend. Cyclical turning points are located in the business cycles of our sample of 21 major countries, which enables us to comment on the characteristics of business cycles in the three periods. Cross‐correlations of the cyclical deviates are calculated for all the pairs of the 21 countries examined. It is apparent from casual inspection that the business cycle characteristics and the pattern of cross‐correlations in the bloc economy period are different from those found for the two globalization periods, whereas there is less difference between the two globalization periods. Following the estimations by Frankel and Rose, we relate business cycle synchronization to trade patterns and currency unions. Consequently, we find that European integration was already discernible in terms of business cycle synchronization in the early 1900s and that a similar synchronization was not discernible for Asia.     

虚拟价值链下促进服务外包发展的策略选择

经济全球化带来的产品内工序分工和广义虚拟经济的发展,使得服务外包得到了迅速的发展.本文通过研究虚拟价值链下服务外包发展的动因,结合服务外包发展现状及其影响,提出了中国发展服务外包的策略选择.