显性部分存款保险下的有效银行退出机制--基于成本收益分析下的博弈分析

目前,中国银行业还没有建立起有效的市场退出机制和相关的制度安排,这不符合市场经济条件下金融业的基本规则,也给国家带来了沉重的负担.本论文通过一个二阶段完全信息动态博弈模型的分析揭示,由于银监会未建立起有效的成本约束下的市场退出机制,使得相机抉择的关闭机制对于商业银行而言是一个不可置信的威胁,促进了商业银行的冒险投资,加之隐性存款保险的存在,形成巨大的社会成本和福利损失.目前条件下,加快市场退出机制建设并建立与之相配套的显性部分存款保险制度是一个上佳的选择.     

中国银行业市场竞争程度及其顺周期性——以勒纳指数为衡量指标的重新考察

准确判断中国银行业市场竞争程度及其特点,对于把握中国银行业改革方向以及金融安全问题有着重要意义.文章首次以勒纳指数为衡量指标,运用新实证产业组织理论对中国银行业1994-2006年市场竞争程度进行研究.结果表明:中国银行业在1994年到亚洲金融危机前处于高度竞争状态,危机后到入世前市场竞争程度下降,入世后市场竞争程度有显著加强.市场竞争程度存在明显的顺经济周期特点,中国应密切关注银行信贷竞争的顺周期性以确保宏观经济的稳定运行.     

The Workout of Banking Crises: A Macroeconomic Perspective

This paper provides a macroeconomic perspective for governmentinterventions in banking crisis. Such crisis occur when a largenumber of banks fail to meet capital requirements or are insolvent.Using a macroeconomic model with financial intermediation, ouranalyis suggests that strict enforcement of capital-adequaterules suffices in prosperous periods. Capital requirements serveas an indicator for crises interventions in critical stateswhich may require interest rate intervention and restructuringof the banking industry. These policies can be reinforced byrandom bailouts and temporary financial relief, with a largepercentage of the costs being covered by current and futureowners of banks. (JEL D41, E4, G2)     

Competition and risk in South East Asian commercial banking

This article investigates the effects of competition on bank risk taking behaviour in four South East Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam). Our main finding is that competition does not increase bank risk-taking behaviour and the results appear robust to different model specifications, estimation approaches and variable construction. We also find that concentration is inversely related to bank risk whereas regulatory restrictions positively influence bank risk-taking.     

基于MCMC方法的我国银行业技术效率评价

以动态随机前沿模型为基础,采用基于吉布斯抽样的马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法,运用1998—2007年我国银行类金融机构的基本数据对模型的各参数进行贝叶斯估计,得到我国银行类金融机构的技术效率评价结果。结果表明:我国银行类金融机构的技术效率均值为96.68%,运行效率较高,这说明我国推行的银行业改革卓有成效。     

Convergence of bank competition in Central and Eastern European countries: do foreign and domestic banks go hand in hand?

Following the massive entry of foreign banks into the Central and Eastern European (CEE) banking markets, one may wonder whether their competitive behaviour differs from that of their domestic counterparts, possibly leading to the segmentation of these markets at the regional and national levels. We find that the competitive behaviour of foreign and domestic banks differs, with foreign banks having less market power until the recent financial crisis and more market power after this financial turmoil. Despite this difference, banks tend to behave similarly, and their market power converges to a similar level. The tendency towards similar competitive behaviour is observed at the regional and national levels and for both foreign and domestic banks, although foreign institutions that enter these markets through the acquisition of domestic banks have slightly more market power. Our findings suggest the regional integration of CEE banking markets and no segmentation between foreign and domestic institutions.     

竞争战略、资本结构与企业业绩

文章认为,对于竞争性行业和垄断性行业的资本结构与企业业绩的相关性,可以尝试从不同的理论出发点来解释,对于竞争性行业而言,其保守的财务政策(低负债率)可能是基于行业竞争程度、资本市场条件以及企业竞争战略的理性商业选择,不一定是以往学者从代理问题出发得出的股权融资偏好。我国监管机构基于抑制股权融资偏好行为而制定的一系列股权融资约束似乎并未考虑到行业竞争程度的不同,这种资本市场的配置低效率使得我国上市公司面临着过度监管和监管不足并存的现象。     

Consumer perception of deposit insurance: little awareness,limited effectiveness?

The empirical findings on bank runs and market discipline are at odds with the theoretical predictions from the literature, at least in emerging markets. Using unique survey data from the Netherlands, we explore two possible explanations: deposit holders may have limited knowledge of deposit insurance (DI)-schemes or they may not fully trust these schemes to be executed faithfully. We find that knowledge on the eligibility for DI is limited, particularly when it concerns minor banks. Nevertheless, households with more deposits have better knowledge of the DI-scheme and show higher levels of trust. In addition, deposit holders generally expect an associated payback time that well exceeds the time it has taken to pay back depositors in the past. Moreover, consumers believe repayment is more likely and faster for large, systemic banks. These results confirm that both households’ awareness of the coverage and trust in the operations of the DI-scheme are suboptimal.     

银行危机、道德风险与存款保险

存款保险制度是一国金融安全网的核心,在一定程度上防止对银行因存款挤兑而破产。但是,如果缺乏对银行业的有效监管,存款保险制度又会引起银行的道德风险。     

中国商业银行市场集中度影响因素及趋势研究

中国商业银行市场集中度影响因素中,期初集中度、外资银行进入、并购、市场需求成长率与效率变量对集中度的影响为负,而产品差异度与集中度不相关。对趋势的分析表明中国商业银行市场集中度将会经历一个由下降到上升的过程,但是其持续的时间将取决于中国经济金融市场化的深度与速度。     

银行竞争对制造业上市公司融资约束的影响研究

本文研究了银行竞争程度的变动对制造业上市公司融资约束大小的影响。本文将我国制造业A股上市公司作为样本,建立多元回归模型验证银行竞争形势的加剧是否会影响企业所面临的融资约束。本文认为制造业A股上市公司面临显著的融资约束,而且银行竞争与企业所面临的融资约束之间呈现U型关系,即随着银行竞争的加剧,融资约束呈现先放松后收紧的趋势。     

银行监管对银行业结构演进的影响——基于市场准入与经营范围监管视角的研究

文章以银行业集中度作为银行业结构的代理变量,实证检验了市场准入和经营范围的监管对一国银行业结构的影响。研究结果表明:(1)对国内银行市场准入的限制会增加银行业集中度,加强外资银行准入的限制则会降低银行业集中度;(2)发展中国家对于银行从事证券业务的限制更敏感;(3)发达国家对于银行从事保险和房地产业务的限制更敏感。拓展模型结果显示,放松外资银行准入会强化银行经营范围监管对银行业集中度的边际效应。     

保险市场风险与效率探析

从国外文献看,无论从数量还是从研究的系统性及深度和广度上,对保险市场风险与效率的研究都相对滞后于商业银行和资本市场风险与效率的研究,而国内保险界对保险市场风险与效率的研究更是少见,但是保险业高速的规模扩张伴随着保险业低效率是阻碍我国保险业发展的重要问题。鉴于此,试图将我国保险市场的风险与效率结合起来研究,从保险市场存在的风险与低效率的表现入手,分析对外开放风险、信息不对称风险、诚信缺失风险、系统性风险导致的保险业的低效率运行,以求找到提高效率的途径。     

中国农村保险市场差异化竞争研究

当前,中国农村保险市场处在一个重要的发展时期,但由于过度价格竞争的影响,其发展受到一定程度的制约,其根源是差异化竞争不足。在农村保险市场上,产品差异化有利于避免低价恶性竞争及规范市场竞争秩序,有利于市场的良性发展,据此,普及农村保险理念与保险知识、细分农村保险市场、提高农村保险市场差异化竞争的不可模仿性和创新差异化竞争尤为重要。     

The difficult construction of a European Deposit Insurance Scheme: a step too far in Banking Union?

The German Government refused to accept the development of a European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS) for Banking Union member states. Publicly, the German Government was preoccupied with the creation of a moral hazard that common funds would create for banks in those participating countries that had weak banking systems. This paper argues that to understand German moral hazard concerns it is necessary to look beyond the ideational – notably concerns stemming from German Ordo-liberalism – and focus on the existing national institutional arrangements that the German Government sought to protect. German moral hazard concerns stemmed from the fear that well-funded German deposit guarantee schemes (DGS) – especially those of small savings and cooperative banks – could be tapped to compensate for underfunded (and largely ex post funded) DGS in other member states. We thus demonstrate that the difficulties facing the construction of an EDIS owe to the weakness of the previously agreed harmonization of national DGS. This failure to harmonize schemes beyond a low minimal standard can be explained through an analysis focused on national systems. Different existing national DGS stem from the different configuration of national banking systems, the longstanding relationships among national banks and well-entrenched regulatory frameworks.     

我国航空运输服务业的市场结构及价格竞争策略分析

我国航空运输服务业从宏观上分析具有寡头垄断的市场结构特点,从航线运营的角度分析却具有垄断竞争的特点,因此我国航空运输服务市场还处在重要的发展变革阶段。在我国空运市场特定的经济环境下,旅客的购买决策受到多种因素的影响,航空公司的价格竞争主要表现为不同价格的子舱位数量的决策,并且具有复杂的价格体系。在同一航线上经营的不同企业一方面要针对价格需求弹性大和时间需求弹性大的旅客采取强硬的价格竞争策略;另一方面也要注重差异化价格竞争策略, 避免恶性竞争的发生。