地区放权与经济效率:以计划单列为例

中国的经济改革始于放权,尤其是对地区的放权。本文以计划单列为例,研究整体性行政放权对经济效率的影响并通过构造省内与省外城市的对比组来估计计划单列的因果效应。研究结果表明:从总体上,放权确实有助于计划单列市提高其经济效率。本文对此结论进行了一系列的稳健性检验。     

The Influence of Socioeconomic Factors on Economic Growth

The main goal of this paper is to analyse the relationship between social capital and economic growth taking into account the role of fiscal policy from theoretical and empirical points of view. To achieve this goal, “Human Capital and Public Capital Effects on Economic Growth” is focused on the effects of two traditional factors: human capital and public capital effects on economic growth. “Social Capital Effects on Economic Growth” considers qualitative variables introducing some socioeconomic effects on economic growth process analysis. In this case, social capital the main variable will be considered. “Empirical Analysis,” an empirical analysis is developed considering the case of European countries prior to the EU enlargement. Finally, in Conclusions,” the main conclusions will be resumed.      

Aggregate returns to social capital: Estimates based on the augmented augmented-Solow model

We extend the augmented-Solow model to estimate the aggregate output elasticity and depreciation rate of social capital that characterize aggregate returns. The estimated output elasticity is approximately 0.1. While social capital positively affects economic growth, the magnitude is much smaller than that of other production inputs. The estimated depreciation rate is at least 10% per annum, which is higher than that of physical capital. The median value of the implied aggregate return of social capital is approximately 19.11% at the global level. In OECD countries, it is likely to be considerably smaller than the individual returns, suggesting the fallacy of composition. While there is no systematic relationship between GDP per capita and returns to physical or human capital, the aggregate returns to social capital seem to be negatively related to the level of development.     

The political economy of linguistic cleavages

This paper uses a linguistic tree, describing the genealogical relationship between all 6912 world languages, to compute measures of diversity at different levels of linguistic aggregation. By doing so, we let the data inform us on which linguistic cleavages are most relevant for a range of political economy outcomes, rather than making ad hoc choices. We find that deep cleavages, originating thousands of years ago, lead to better predictors of civil conflict and redistribution. The opposite pattern emerges when it comes to the impact of linguistic diversity on growth and public goods provision, where finer distinctions between languages matter.     

Social security, public education and the growth-inequality relationship

We study how the relationship between economic growth and inequality depends upon the levels of funding of two of the largest government programs, public education and social security. We do this in the context of an overlapping generations economy with heterogeneous agents where the government collects a tax on labor income to finance these programs. We show that in our model an increase in government spending on social security reduces income inequality and can have a non-monotonic effect on growth. When the initial level of social security funding is low, as is the case in most poor economies, then its increase will enhance growth. When its funding level is high as is typical for developed countries, we show that its further increase can slow down growth while reducing income inequality. These results obtain regardless of whether the increase in social security funding is financed by a tax increase or by cutting the public education budget. We also find that the effects of increasing the level of public education expenditures or the overall size of the government budget (holding the budget composition fixed) are characterized by similar non-monotonic growth-inequality relationships.     

Trust and development

In this paper we examine linkages between social trust and economic development using, for the first time, a panel of data. We confirm earlier cross-sectional studies finding that trust is a significant factor in development and also show for the first time that trust significantly interacts with both investment in physical and human capital. We provide a robustness analysis of our results via a set of jackknife experiments on our main equations, and the trust coefficients and interactions are very tightly distributed, indicating that the results are not highly sample dependent. We also consider whether trust directly influences investment and find that in a panel framework it does not unless we allow for a trust–education interaction in the investment equation.     

论对外开放与分权改革的互动

已有的研究认为,中国改革开放30年来之所以能够在经济转型和增长方面创造出"中国奇迹",是由于分权改革发挥了重要的作用.本文认为,分权改革自身并不一定产生出"趋好的竞争","中国奇迹"的取得是对外开放与分权改革形成良性互动的结果.但是对外开放并不能从根本上消除分权改革所造成的负面影响,因而调整分权改革政策,重构中央政府和地方政府之间的关系是延续"中国奇迹"的必然举措.     

World economic convergence: Does the estimation methodology matter?

An extant empirical literature produces evidence on economic convergence using methods that assume an underlying deterministic trend. Competing approaches that assume a stochastic trend, however, produce only limited evidence of economic convergence. In this paper we address this puzzling feature of the literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of economic convergence using three methodologies that cover all possible underlying assumptions: deterministic, stochastic, and combination trends. We also develop a method for an overall Stochastic Convergence Rate Index, that combines the outcomes of alternative stochastic tests and provides a single measure of the intensity of stochastic convergence. We consider 135 economies over the period 1980–2017. We find that economic convergence occurs at a global level through the formation of convergence clubs, and economic convergence emerges as a deterministic rather than a stochastic process. Tests that ignore deterministic trends tend to understate the evidence for convergence.     

人力资本与区域经济发展的计量分析

基于1990年与2000年人口普查数据,运用回归分析研究了区域人力资本指标10年间的差异及其变化趋势对地区经济发展水平变动的影响.结果表明,对人均GDP的增长率有显著影响的因素,按其影响程度由大到小依次为:平均受教育年限增长率、识字率提高率、教育投资占GDP 的比例变动和每千人医生数增长率,但它们对人均GDP影响的方向不同,这一结论不同于许多学者的总量研究结果.本文还利用因子分析进一步解释了人力资本各指标的层次结构对经济作用的影响.这对于在经济转型期深刻认识人力资本在促进区域经济发展中的作用有参考价值.     

Imperfect Competition and Growth with Entrepreneurial Risk

Abstract. This paper analyzes an overlapping generations endogenous growth model of occupational choice under risk in a two-sector economy with intermediate and final goods. Agents choose between business ownership in the monopolistically competitive intermediate goods industry or employment as a worker in this sector. Firm-specific profits are stochastic. Occupational choice under risk endogenizes the number of firms and products in the intermediate goods industry. The analysis shows that economic performance and growth both depend on the entrepreneurship rate and are inefficiently low compared with an economy with perfect markets for pooling risks. Monopolistic competition partly offsets the negative income effects from a too low level of entrepreneurial risk-taking.     

The regional allocation of infrastructure investment: The role of equity, efficiency and political factors

This paper analyses the main determinants of the regional allocation of infrastructure investment. The estimated investment equation is derived from a general specification of the government's objective function (Berhman and Craig, Am. Econom. Rev. 77 (1987) 315), which accounts both for the equity-efficiency trade-off and for deviations from this rule that arise because of political factors. The reaction of investment to changes in the regional output provides information about the strength of the equity-efficiency trade-off. The main political factor considered is a measurement of the electoral productivity of funds invested in each region. The equation is estimated from panel data on investment and the capital stock of transportation infrastructure (i.e., roads, rails, ports and airports) for the Spanish departments (NUTS3) during the period 1987-1996. We use a dynamic specification of the equation that allows for slow adjustment and which is estimated by GMM methods (Arellano and Bond, Rev. Econom. Stud. 58 (1991) 277). The results suggest that efficiency criteria play only a limited role in the geographical distribution of government infrastructure investment. Specific regional infrastructure needs and political factors both appear to be factors that do explain the regional allocation of infrastructure investment.     

国内区域协调发展状况定量评价研究综述

通过对国内区域协调发展定量研究的相关论文进行梳理,本文认为相关研究遵循指标选择-模型设定-权重设定的研究范式.在此框架下,本文对学者针对区域协调发展在概念理解、研究目标、方法设计及情境选择等方面的研究进行对照和总结,指出国内学者针对该主题的研究呈现出较强的演化特征,研究维度向多维化、深入化演进,研究指标向全面化、综合化演进,研究方法向客观化、科学化演进.同时本文还认为对区域协调发展状况的定量研究尚存在一定的难点,主要表现在:缺少对模型效度的检验;定量评价过多注重方法,忽略方法为区域建设服务的理念;数据采集的困难导致模型为数据服务,从而对真实情况反映不完整.在此基础上,本文最后提出了未来的研究方向.     

INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL TEST SCORES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Hanushek and Kimko's analysis of the relationship between growth and schooling quality, as measured by scores in international tests, suffers from potential endogeneity as schooling quality is not always measured at a date strictly prior to the observed growth. To address this problem we treat the data as a panel, relating growth only to test scores at earlier dates. The estimates of the effect of schooling quality on growth are similar to those obtained from cross‐section regressions.     

促进区域经济发展的社会资本培育机制建设探讨

信任、合作、规范、网络、文化认同等社会资本要素在区域经济发展中的作用越来越明显,已成为自然资本、物质资本和人力资本的必要补充,并与其一起构成区域经济发展所必不可少的要素。因此,应充分发挥区域社会资本因素的作用,并与物质资本、人力资本等融合在一起,使之形成一种推动区域经济发展的合力。地方政府在关注区域内有形资本和人力资本的投入时,更应致力于社会资本的培育。具体而言,地方政府应建立健全法律规范,营造一个诚信的制度环境;加快构建社会信用体系;加强商会、行业协会等民间组织的作用;培育创新、信用、合作、开放的区域文化。     

中国区域经济的"资源诅咒"效应:地区差距的另一种解释

国际上许多研究显示，自然禀赋与一些国家的经济增长之间存在显著的负相关关系，由此形成所谓的“资源诅咒”效应。本文在回顾相关文献的基础上，提出中国区域的经济增长在长周期上也存在着“资源诅咒”效应的假说，并把它看作是地区发展差距的一个重要原因，论文通过构建一个以能源资源为代表的资源丰裕度指数，重点考察我国不同省份之间资源禀赋与经济增长的相互关系。结论表明，1978-2003年我国资源丰裕的地区经济增长速度普遍要慢于资源贫瘠的地区。对此现象，论文用“资源诅咒”的四种传导机制作出解释，同时也为我国资源丰裕地区加快经济发展提供了一些具体的政策建议。     

Growth and human capital: good data,good results

We present a new data set for years of schooling across countries for the 1960–2000 period. The series are constructed from the OECD database on educational attainment and from surveys published by UNESCO. Two features that improve the quality of our data with respect to other series, particularly for series in first-differences, are the use of surveys based on uniform classification systems of education over time, and an intensified use of information by age groups. As a result of the improvement in quality, these new series can be used as a direct substitute for Barro and Lee’s (2001; Oxford Economic Papers, 3, 541–563) data in empirical research. In standard cross-country growth regressions we find that our series yield significant coefficients for schooling. In panel data estimates our series are also significant even when the regressions account for the accumulation of physical capital. Moreover, the estimated macro return is consistent with those reported in labour studies. These results differ from the typical findings of the earlier literature and are a consequence of the reduction in measurement error in the series.