佳木斯市中小企业融资渠道亟待通畅

全球金融危机对我市经济的负面影响逐步显现,其中对工业领域的影响尤为突出,从2008年4季度企业生产综合景气指数明显下滑,2009年1季度同比仍下降27．18点。在这样一种宏观环境下,我市企业融资困难突显,成为生存与发展中一个突出的问题。国家统计局佳木斯查队对我市55家工业企业的生产经营情况进行监测调查,发现我市当前企业融资主要存在以下情况：     

关于商业银行如何加强中小企业贷后管理的思考

2012年国际金融危机带来的不利影响持续发酵,国内经济增长速度放缓,部分中小企业开始出现明显的经营下滑,流动资金紧张,甚至部分地区和行业企业开始出现＂关门潮＂。国内的商业银行也面临着重大挑战,中小企业贷款风险逐步显现。鉴于此,如何通过分析中小企业风险特征,采取有针对性的措施,加强中小企业贷后管理值得我们思考。     

江苏省中小企业政策景气指数的现状及原因分析

本文基于学院企业生态研究中心对江苏省中小企业四项景气指数的调研结果,着重研究其中的政策景气指数偏低的现状及原因.文章首先介绍了研究中心对江苏省中小企业景气指数的分类及调研的结果,接着分析江苏省对中小企业已有的扶持政策,然后选取苏南、苏北和苏中三个区域的代表性城市,具体分析这些城市政策景气指数偏低的现状及原因,最后提出提升江苏省中小企业政策景气指数的建议.     

软件与信息技术服务业景气指数研究——以南京中小企业为例

软件与信息技术服务行业是处于快速成长中具有科技与服务双重性质的行业,在经济不景气的背景下依然发展良好.为了解此行业的实际情况,南京大学中小企业研究中心成员对南京本行中小企业进行实地考察和问卷访谈.调研结果表明:该行业中小企业遭遇融资、税收和人工成本的瓶颈,同时也面临“走出去”的困境.本文以南京中小软件与信息技术企业为切入点,运用景气指数的方法具体分析企业所面临的问题,并提出相关建议,为政府进行宏观调控、投资者决策等提供参考.     

房地产行业宏观风险分析

文章基于2008~2014年房地产行业的季度数据,用因子分析提取综合反映行业风险的5个公因子,并建立识别宏观风险的二元逻辑回归模型。实证结果显示:2008年底中国房地产行业风险达到最大值98.7%,2008年以后风险快速下降,到2011年下半年风险开始迅速回升至90%,2012-2014年风险发生概率维持在70%左右且呈现波动下降趋势;对中国房地产行业风险影响较大的是房屋销售面积增长率、房屋销售额增长率和定金及预收款增长率等房地产需求因素且负相关;GDP增长率、房地产企业景气指数和房地产贷款余额增长率是影响我国房地产行业风险的重要因素。     

南京市中小企业的政府融资支持指数研究——基于2014-2016年对南京市中小企业的调研数据

本文基于学院企业生态研究中心对南京市中小企业景气指数的调研结果,着重分析其中的政府融资支持指数.首先对政府在中小企业中作用的相关文献进行综述,接着介绍了调研状况并对政府融资支持的六个指标进行解读,然后根据2014-2016年的调研结果计算出六个政府融资支持指标的即期及预期景气指数,并进行比较分析,最后总结比较三年的政府融资支持指标的总景气指数,并提出加强政府对中小企业融资支持的措施.     

经济转型时期的科技型企业创新效率比较研究

本文采用主成分分析与DEA指数模型相结合的方法,通过提取主成分将多种投入和产出降维,在此基础上运用DEA-Malmquist指数模型对正处在经济转型期的科技型中小企业以及大型企业创新效率进行评价并做出对比分析,评价结果表明:在2013-2015年的经济转型期间,科技型中小企业和大型企业的创新效率均呈下降趋势,且科技型中小企业的创新效率下降更快.对比结果发现:科技型中小企业在资源配置及企业管理上与大型企业有较大差距,同时其技术进步不足也是科技型中小企业创新效率低下的重要原因.最后,本文通过行业及创新模式划分,寻找影响科技型中小企业创新效率的实质性因素.研究结果发现:经济转型时期的科技型中小企业在资金和管理投入上较大型企业而言存在差距,未来通过自主研发及提高企业管理能力对发挥科技型中小企业的作用至关重要.     

中国中小企业贷款成本影响因素的实证分析

利用某商业银行在2013—2015年的中小企业贷款数据,通过多元回归分析研究了银企关系特征、贷款特征、企业特征和区域特征对中小企业贷款成本的影响,并深入探讨了上述影响在不同区域的差异。结果表明:银企关系持续时间越长,中小企业的贷款成本越低;企业的所有制类型、区域特征对其贷款成本有显著影响,其中国有企业的贷款成本低于私营企业,东部地区中小企业的贷款成本较高。     

环境规制技术创新效应差异性分析

运用我国2002-2009年的区域面板数据对环境规制的技术创新效应进行了检验,结果表明,在经济发展水平和能源使用效率较高的地区,环境规制显著促进企业技术创新,在经济发展水平较低和能源消耗较多的地区,环境规制会阻碍其技术创新;运用行业面板数据测度了不同污染密集度行业环境规制对创新的影响,结果显示,环境规制促进污染密集型行业的技术创新,对中度污染密集型行业影响不明显,与轻度污染密集型行业的技术创新呈反方向变动,即环境规制的技术创新效应呈现明显的地区和行业差异。     

银行业结构影响中小企业信贷能力? ——基于分层线性模型实证

中小企业融资问题引起了我国普遍关注。基于wind数据库,利用分层线性模型考察了企业规模与银行业结构对中小企业信贷能力的影响,并引入了商业信用环境变量,研究不同商业信用环境下,该影响是否会发生变化。研究发现,企业规模越大,银行业结构越分散,企业信贷能力越强,但该影响程度随着商业信用环境的提高而减弱。本研究对于如何提高中小企业信贷能力具有重要参考意义。     

Interrelationship among foreign presence,domestic sales and export intensity in Chinese manufacturing industries

Using panel data on six Chinese manufacturing industries over the period 2005–2007, this article explores the interrelationship among foreign presence, domestic sales and export intensity of local firms. We find that the domestic sales and exports are complementary for local firms in China’s pharmaceutical industry, whereas in the case of the textile, transportation equipment, beverage, communication equipment and general equipment manufacturing industries, domestic sales and exports are substitutes. An increase in the average domestic sales increases foreign presence in all industries. The same applies to an increase in the average export intensity. An increase in the level of competition in China’s textile industry increases the export intensity as well as domestic sales of local textile firms. However, an increase in the level of competition in the pharmaceutical industry leads to a very large decrease in export intensity of local pharmaceutical firms. In the case of China’s transportation equipment manufacturing industry, an increase in the level of competition decreases domestic sales of local firms. Furthermore, an increase in the firm size increases domestic sales of Chinese firms in all six manufacturing industries.     

Foreign versus domestic outsourcing: Firm-level evidence on the role of technology

The decision about where to outsource varies across firms and industries. General machinery heavily depends on domestic subcontractors, while outsourcing overseas is prevalent in apparel. Based on firm-level data explicitly distinguishing foreign outsourcing from domestic outsourcing in all manufacturing industries, this paper finds that firms tend to prefer domestic outsourcing to foreign outsourcing when they are R&D-intensive. This finding is consistent with incomplete contracting models, since technologically complex products are likely to require high-quality contracting environment and assembler–supplier proximity. This paper also finds that firms connected with computer networks are actively outsourcing.     

中国企业储蓄率 ——来自企业的微观证据

实施扩大内需战略，实现经济结构调整，促进经济增长，是当前中国经济政策的重要内容，而对中国储蓄率的分析则是扩大内需战略研究的逻辑起点。作为国民储蓄率的重要构成，企业储蓄率的研究尤为重要。本文在对企业储蓄率界定进行调整的基础上，利用统计局工业企业数据库1996—2007年共1886万个企业微观数据对中国企业储蓄率进行分析。研究得出的结论是：（1）中国企业储蓄率依然处于较高的水平，1996—2007年这12年的企业平均储蓄率高达287%（储蓄占工业增加值比重），近几年依然在逐年上升；（2）中国企业储蓄率在绝对水平上始终高于发达国家，但当前企业储蓄率持续增高已经成为一个全球性趋势而非中国的特有现象；（3）民营企业储蓄率整体水平约为253%，低于国有企业和外资企业，但是民营企业储蓄率保持了较高的增长水平，而外资企业和国有企业储蓄率水平则有不同程度的下降；（4）中国企业储蓄率具有明显的行业特征，传统的劳动密集型行业的企业储蓄率相对较低，资金密集型行业的企业储蓄率相对较高。     

The “Business Climate” and Economic Inequality

“Business climate indexes” characterize state economic policies, and are often used to try to influence economic policy debate. However, they are also useful in research as summaries of a large number of state policies that cannot be studied simultaneously. Prior research found that business climate indexes focused on productivity and quality of life do not predict economic growth, while indexes emphasizing taxes and costs of doing business indicate that low‐tax, low‐cost states have faster growth of employment, wages, and output. In this paper, we study the relationship between these two categories of business climate indexes and the promotion of equality or inequality. We do not find that the productivity/quality‐of‐life indexes predict more equitable outcomes, although some of the policies underlying them suggest they might. We do find, however, that the same tax‐and‐cost‐related indexes that are associated with higher economic growth are also associated with increases in inequality.     

成渝经济区城市体系规模结构实证

采用豪斯道夫(Hausdorff)分维模式,利用2002和2003年成渝经济区各等级城市非农业人口、社会商品零售总额、国内生产总值(GDP)、第一产业产值、第二产业产值、第三产业产值等6个指标对成渝经济区城市体系的分形特征进行研究。结果表明,成渝经济区城市体系的规模结构较为分散。除第一产业外,经济区内各城市在非农业人口、社会商品零售总额、国内生产总值(GDP)、第二产业产值、第三产业产值方面存在着较大的等级差异。针对这一现状,提出了完善和优化成渝经济区城市等级规模结构的对策建议。     

A fire sale without fire: An explanation of labor-intensive FDI in China

China's labor-intensive industries are characterized by low technology and high competition. The massive inflow of FDI in China's labor intensive industries is inconsistent with the conventional wisdom that FDI should be more prevalent in technology-intensive and low competition industries. To explain this puzzle, we offer a “fire sale” hypothesis: facing severe financial constraints, Chinese private firms give up their equity to form joint ventures with foreign firms in order to obtain financing. Using the garment industry as an example, we find that among domestic firms, the financial constraint index is highest for private firms and lowest for state-owned firms. We further estimate a probit model of joint-venture decisions by private firms. Our results suggest that those private firms with greater financial constraints are more likely to seek foreign joint ownership. The effect of financial constraints on joint venture decision is both statistically and economically significant.     

Domestic political competition and pro‐cyclical import protection

Governments, especially in developing countries, routinely practice binding overhang (i.e. setting applied tariffs below binding WTO commitments) and frequently move applied tariffs for given products up and down over the business cycle. Moreover, applied tariffs are pro‐cyclical in developing countries. We explain this phenomenon using a dynamic theory of lobbying between domestic interest groups. Applied tariffs are pro‐cyclical when high‐tariff interests (e.g. import‐competing industries) capture the government: these groups concede lower tariffs to low‐tariff interest groups (e.g. exporting firms or firms using imported intermediate inputs) during recessions because recessions lower the opportunity cost of lobbying and thereby generate a stronger lobbying threat.     

Investment abroad and labour adjustment at home: evidence from UK multinational firms

Abstract. This paper provides new evidence on the effects of overseas FDI on the skill‐mix of multinational firms’ home‐country operations. The analysis exploits China's WTO accession to identify the impact of outward investment into a low‐wage economy and uses plant‐level data to investigate changes in industrial structure within firms driven by plant closures. As predicted by models of vertical FDI, the paper demonstrates that overseas investment in low‐wage economies is associated with asymmetric effects on workers in low‐ and high‐skill industries in the home economy and, in particular, with firms closing down plants in low‐skill industries. JEL classification: F2     

Microeconomic uncertainty and macroeconomic indeterminacy

We propose a stylized intertemporal macroeconomic model wherein the combination of decentralized trading and microeconomic uncertainty (taking the form of privately observed and uninsured idiosyncratic shocks) creates an information problem between agents and generates indeterminacy of the macroeconomic equilibrium. For a given value of the economic fundamentals, the economy admits a continuum of equilibria that can be indexed by the sales expectations of firms at the time of investment. The Walrasian equilibrium is one of these possible equilibria but it is reached only if firms are optimistic enough. With a weaker degree of optimism, equilibrium output, employment and real wages will be lower than in the Walrasian equilibrium. Moreover, the range of possible equilibria will depend positively on the wage elasticity of the labour supply and on the magnitude of the information problem between buyers and sellers (in our case, the variance of the idiosyncratic shocks).Stochastic simulations performed on a calibrated version of the model show that pure demand expectation shocks may generate business cycle statistics that are not inconsistent with the observed ones.     

EU accession and foreign-owned firms in Bulgaria

Bulgaria signed the European Union accession treaty in 2005. Accession caused an increase in the volume of inward foreign direct investment flows (IFDI). We analyse World Bank BEEPS firm-level data for 2007 to understand the characteristics and performance of foreign firms in Bulgaria. Regression analysis reveals that foreign firms are larger, have lower capital-to-labour ratios, are more likely to export and are more likely to locate in Sofia. However, foreign firms have had limited success in Bulgaria. They do not exhibit higher sales growth and, in manufacturing, carried out lower capital investment in machinery than domestic firms. The numbers of visits from tax officials is the same for domestic and foreign firms in manufacturing, and lower for foreign firms in the service sector. However, firms with higher exports-to-sales ratios and higher absolute sales were subjected to a higher number of visits from tax officials. These findings suggest that a range of institutional challenges remain for foreign firms in Bulgaria.