On the Effects of Asset Purchase Programs on Emerging Stock Markets

ABSTRACT

It is well documented that there has been a relationship between stock markets and unconventional monetary policies. However, most research concentrates on developed economies and analyzes the effects of shocks from such polices on stock prices. This paper is different from this research in that we investigate the impact of surprises from the Fed’s and the ECB’s announcements on the stock returns and volatility in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using GARCH models. We find that a positive surprise associated with a fall in the U.S. Treasury yield causes an increase in ADX returns. We show significant effects of the ECB’s shocks on price returns. In particular, announcement that induces a decline in yield spreads in Italian sovereign bonds leads to higher stock prices. We also document a significant impact of surprises both by the Fed and ECB on volatility. However, the estimates are mixed. We note that volatility went down in response to the ECB’s policies, while they increased after the Fed’s asset purchases. Finally, when we distinguish surprises by their sign, the GJR-GARCH model estimates indicate that the effect on the volatility which is, perhaps surprisingly, symmetric for both types of news.     

The heterogeneous volume-volatility relations in the exchange-traded fund market: Evidence from China

We decompose the trading volume of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) into specific components according to different triggers of trades: (i) private information, (ii) disagreement among investors due to their different opinions on public information or having different information, and (iii) investor impatience. Then we examine the particular impact of each type of ETF trade on the market volatility of the tracked index. Focusing on the three ETFs tracking the CSI 300, we show that ETF trades stemming from investor disagreement are a key determinant of CSI 300 volatility, dominating other factors considered. Liquidity ETF trades can partially explain CSI 300 volatility. However, little evidence supports a significant correlation between privately informed trades of ETFs and CSI 300 volatility.     

The intraday relation between return volatility, transactions, and volume

In this article, we examine the relation between return volatility, average trade size, and the frequency of transactions using transaction data. Consistent with Jones, Kaul, and Lipson (1994)(. Review of Financial Studies, 7, 631–651), our results show that the frequency of trades has a high explanatory power for return volatility. However, contrary to their finding, we find that average trade size contains nontrivial information for return volatility. The positive relation between return volatility and average trade size is more significant for actively traded stocks. Furthermore, return volatility exhibits significant intraday variations. It is found that the effect of trade frequency on return volatility is much stronger in the opening trading period.     

On the Tobin Tax

Abstract

This paper clarifies why a transaction tax, such as the Tobin Tax, can stabilize financial markets. In markets that are already fairly deep, relatively small changes in trading volume are unlikely to have any impact (positive or negative) on volatility. Thus, a Tobin Tax can potentially have a stabilizing effect on international currency markets not because it reduces the excessive volume of transactions of speculators, but because it can slow down the speed with which market traders react to changes in prices of currencies. Moreover, it can lower their elasticity of future price expectations with respect to current price changes, which also has a stabilizing effect. Thus, to the extent that a Tobin Tax causes traders in financial markets to delay their decisions, a few ‘grains of sand in the wheels of international finance’ can indeed be stabilizing. Whether or not that is sufficient to prevent speculative attacks on currencies is a different matter.     

Small trades and volatility increases after stock splits

In this paper, we examine the trading activity and return volatility pattern before and after splits. Unlike previous studies, we employ high-frequency transaction data and more powerful asymptotical tests on the impact of split on volatility. Furthermore, we examine the relationship between volatility and volume using different volatility measures and controlling for the effects of autocorrelation and trading costs. We find that small trades increase significantly after stock splits and the increase in return volatility is strongly related to the increase in small trades after stock splits. The results support our contention that the post-split volatility increase is driven primarily by the trading activity of smaller noise investors. Test results are robust to different measures of trading activity and return volatility.     

Bank size,competition and risk in the Turkish banking industry

This paper investigates the impact of bank size and competition on earnings volatility and insolvency risk using quarterly data for commercial banks operating in the Turkish banking industry for the period 2002Q1–2012Q2. The main result of the paper indicates that bank size and earnings volatility are negatively related, suggesting that larger banks are less risky. The results also indicate that competition measured by the Boone indicator increases earnings volatility. The results further suggest that higher capitalized banks, banks with a higher share of non-interest income in total income and efficient banks face lower earnings volatility. Finally, insolvency risk measured by Z-score and bank size are positively related, suggesting that larger banks are more stable.     

Price clustering on the Shanghai Stock Exchange

We investigate price clustering of intraday trades and negotiated block trades on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) from 2003 to 2009. Prices of traded assets tend to cluster on certain final digits, such as 0 and 5. In Chinese culture, 8 is associated with good luck and 4 with death so these numbers may be attractive or avoided. We find that price clustering on the final digit of 0 is significantly higher during the morning call auction and early in the trading day. We find no evidence of price clustering for the digit 8, but there is a significant dearth of prices ending in the inauspicious number 4. Price clustering is significantly higher for negotiated block trades, for which about 28% end with 0. Multivariate analysis shows that price clustering is lower for more liquid firms, but higher for firms with higher return volatility, a higher price level, or when the market is volatile. Our evidence supports the costly negotiation hypothesis. Our results also support the attraction hypothesis in that we document significant price clustering at round numbers and even numbers even after controlling for factors that are associated with price uncertainty.     

Analysis of prices in tradable emission markets: an empirical study of the regional clean air incentives market in Los Angeles

The Regional Clean Air Incentives Market is an emissions trading programme, which is expected to help in reducing oxides of nitrogen and sulphur from stationary sources in the Los Angeles area. This paper uses econometric techniques to determine the factors that can explain the development of the price of emission permits. By controlling for various characteristics of the trades, the regression results allow one to isolate the impact of each factor and conduct a detailed analysis of the implications of this factor on price. The results show that the price of permits is affected by institutional factors such as the trading rules and regulations governing the permit programme. The permits are priced higher in the coastal zone, higher for trades recorded in 1997 as compared to 1994 or 1995 and are affected by the trader category. Brokers are involved in well over half of the trades and have acquired a substantial inventory of permits. Facilities buying from brokers pay higher prices than if they buy from another facility. The price of trades beyond 2003 is higher than for current trades, which could be indicative of expectations of high growth rates in the Los Angeles region or due to expectation of more stringent regulations in the future.     

Oil price uncertainty and the business cycle: Accounting for the influences of global supply and demand within a VAR GARCH-in-mean framework

ABSTRACT

This article reinvestigates the influence of oil price uncertainty on real economic activity in the United States using a four-variable VAR GARCH-in-mean asymmetric BEKK model. In contrast to previous studies in this area, the analysis focuses on business cycle fluctuations and we control for global supply and demand factors that might affect the real price of oil, its volatility as well as the US economy. We find that – even after accounting for these factors – oil price uncertainty still has a highly significant negative influence on the US business cycle. Our computations show that the effect is economically important during several periods, mostly after a significant variance shift in the mid-1980s. We simultaneously estimate the effect on the global business cycle but find that it is comparatively weak. Finally, significant spillover effects in the GARCH model suggest that oil price volatility is a gauge and channel of transmission of more general macroeconomic shocks and uncertainty. These linkages are particularly strong in case of unexpected bad news.     

Malaysia-EU trade at the industry level: Is there an asymmetric response to exchange rate volatility?

Aftab et al. (Empirica 43:461–485, 2016) in this journal assessed the impact of exchange rate volatility on Malaysia-EU trade at commodity level using the linear ARDL approach of Pesaran et al. (J Appl Econom 16:289–326, 2001) and did not find significant effects in most of the 81 Malaysian exporting and 66 importing industries. In this paper, we argue for asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on the same industries’ trades which implies using Shin et al.’s (Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, Springer, New York, 2014) nonlinear ARDL approach. While we find short-run asymmetric effects of volatility in almost all industries, we find evidence of adjustment asymmetry in 17 exporting and nine importing industries. We also find significant impact or short-run cumulative asymmetry in 12 exporting and six importing industries. The most important finding is significant long-run asymmetric effects in 36 Malaysian exporting industries and 25 Malaysian importing industries. Clearly, trade flows react to an increased exchange rate volatility differently than to a decreased volatility.     

基于可获供给的资产价格动态

通过引入疏忽投资者,本文初步探讨可获资产供给引起的价格波动,对比经典资产价格理论,结果显示市场积极参与度及入场时机引发的交易廷迟都将导致价格波动,而具有更高流动性的市场,其产品供给更丰富,价格也相对更低。     

Macroeconomic Volatility and the Current Account: Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the relationship between macroeconomic volatility and the current account. Using quarterly data for a panel of OECD economies, time-varying relative volatility measures are constructed for GDP, net output, and government consumption. The empirical evidence suggests that current account balances are positively affected by all three volatility measures. Moreover, the current account balance is found to be related positively to output growth and negatively to the growth of government consumption. Evidence from saving and investment rates also suggests that the precautionary saving motive is part of (though perhaps not the entire) mechanism that relates output volatility and the current account. Broadly consistent with the predictions of the standard theoretical model, these estimates are sizable, statistically significant, and robust.     

Oil Price Shocks and Volatility in Australian Stock Returns

This paper examines the effect of oil shocks on return and volatility in the sectors of Australian stock market and finds significant effects for most sectors. For the overall market index, an increase in oil price return significantly reduces return, and an increase in oil price return volatility significantly reduces volatility. An advantage of looking at sector returns rather than a general index of stock returns is that sectors may well differ markedly in how they respond to oil price shocks. The energy and material sectors (as expected) and the financial sector (surprisingly) are out of step (in different ways) with results for the other sectors and for the overall index. A rise in oil price increases returns in the energy and material sectors and an increase in oil price return volatility increases stock return volatility in the financial sector. Explanation for the negative (positive) association between oil return (oil return volatility) and returns (volatility of returns) in the financial sector must be based on the association via lending to and/or holdings of corporate bonds issued by firms with significant exposure to oil price fluctuations and their speculative positions in oil‐related instruments.     

Ex post adaptations and hybrid contracts in software development services

We follow the recent literature on ex post adaptations in procurement and argue that highly volatile specifications result in multiple variations of fixed price (FP) and time and materials (T&M) contracts. Specifically, placing a cap on specification change in FP contracts prevents specification volatility, similar to the way that placing a cap on the price in T&M contracts prevents price escalation. We argue that these hybrid mechanisms are particularly important in software development contracting, a new critical business capability involving frequent and costly ex post adaptations to specification change. The level of completeness in these contractual archetypes is hypothesized to be determined by contracting costs and benefits, where costs are related to project uncertainty and benefits are related to the likelihood of vendor opportunism. We test this hypothesis with a unique data set of 270 software development contracts entered into by a leading international bank. The analysis confirms the existence of multiple hybrid contracts that mitigate both price escalation and specification volatility. It also shows that contracting costs and benefits explain more variance in contract choice when these hybrids are included, uncovering the detailed mechanisms used to curb opportunism when the vendor is less familiar to the client.     

Priced on the note: the case of Japanese IPOs

ABSTRACT

This article examines the pricing of Japanese IPOs: 54.26% are priced in 1,000 Japanese yen increments (The Japanese yen (JPY) has denominations of banknotes and coins. Banknotes are in 1,000, 2,000, 5,000, and 10,000-yen. Coins are in 1, 5, 10, 50, 100, and 500-yen. One thousand banknotes are similar to US $10 dollars. Coins are considered as changes in Japan.) (note-ending IPOs), an economically large increment on a per-share basis that is equivalent to 10 US dollar increments assuming an exchange rate of 1 US dollar to 100 Japanese yen. The number of note-ending IPOs increases with price levels and pricing uncertainty, supporting the negotiation hypothesis. Note-ending IPOs are associated with higher volatility, higher underwriters’ fees, wider filing price range, smaller deal size, shorter firm age, and lower underwriter reputation. Price clustering contributes to IPO underpricing. The initial returns are 60.44% higher for note-ending relative to coin-ending IPOs. These results shed light on the pricing of Japanese IPOs due to negotiations and on investment opportunities with note-ending IPOs.     

Terms‐of‐Trade Shocks and Exchange Rate Regimes in a Small Open Economy*

We examine the impact of terms‐of‐trade shocks on key macroeconomic variables by numerically solving a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. The model considers nominal price rigidity under different exchange rate regimes. The numerical solutions obtained are consistent with the empirical regularities documented by Broda (2004), in which output responses to shocks are smoother in floats than in pegs; in moving from pegs to floats, the rise in nominal exchange rate volatility is coupled by the rise in real exchange rate volatility; and in both exchange rate regimes, net foreign assets is the most volatile variable.     

New empirical evidence on the bid-ask spread

In this article, we model the determinants of spread for 734 firms listed on the NYSE over the period 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2008. We propose a panel data model of the determinants of spread. There are four main messages emerging from our work. We find a statistically significant effect of volume on spread inconsistent with the work of Johnson (2008). On price, we find mixed results, consistent with the literature. On the effect of price volatility on spread, our results are completely the opposite of the cross-sectional literature but sides with the relatively recent work of Chordia et al. (2001). We allow for persistence of spread as a determinant of spread and find significant evidence of spread persistence across all 16 sectors. Finally, we examine size effects and find statistically strong evidence of size effects based on the relationship between price and spread, persistence and spread, and volatility and spread.     

On derivatives and information costs

Information plays a central role in capital markets and in the process of asset pricing. The specific features of over-the-counter (OTC) markets require often an investment in information acquisition. Information costs can be defined in the context of Merton's [Merton, R. (1987). A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. Journal of Finance, 42, 483–510] model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information (CAPMI). In this context, hedging portfolios can be constructed and analytic formulas can be derived using the Black and Scholes technology or the martingale method. This paper presents a simple framework for the valuation of exotic derivatives and OTC traded securities in this context. We incorporate information costs into a model, and then use this new model to price a variety of exotic options using the general context in Bellalah [Bellalah, M. (2001). Market imperfections, information costs and the valuation of derivatives: Some general results. International Journal of Finance, 13, 1895–1928]. In each case, simple analytic formulae are derived.From a pedagogical viewpoint, we illustrate the methodology and propose simple analytic formulas for pay-on-exercise options, power derivatives, outperformance options, guaranteed exchange-rate contracts in foreign stock investments, equity-linked foreign exchange options and quantos in the same context. These formulae are simple and have the potential to explain some deviations with respect to the standard Black–Scholes model. We can use also stochastic volatilities and information costs to explain the smiles and skews found in options price data as in Bellalah, Prigent, and Villa [Bellalah, M., Prigent, J. L., & Villa, C. (2001). Skew without skewness: Asymmetric smiles, information costs and stochastic volatilitiy, International Journal of Finance, 2001, 1826, 1837] or Bellalah and Mahfoudh (2004) [Bellalah M. and Mahfoudh S. (2004). Option pricing under stochastic volatility with incomplete Information, Wilmott Magazine]. Our methodology can be applied for the valuation of several OTC and real options in the presence of incomplete information.     

A FURTHER EXAMINATION OF THE PRICE AND VOLATILITY IMPACT OF STOCK DIVIDENDS AT EX‐DATES*

We examine the price and volatility reaction around stock dividend ex‐dates for an Australian sample, over the period January 1992 to December 2000. We find that price reaction around stock dividend ex‐dates provides positive abnormal returns both prior, and subsequent, to the abolishment of par value of shares in July 1998. When we partitioned the sample into financial, industrial non‐financial and mining firms, the price reaction is found to be positive and significant only for industrial non‐financial companies. Volatility of daily returns for periods subsequent to ex‐dates is significantly greater than corresponding periods prior to announcement dates, while cumulative raw returns subsequent to ex‐dates are significantly lower than periods prior to announcement dates for industrial non‐financial companies. The magnitude of the price reaction is statistically significantly related to an increase in the volatility of daily returns and to a reduction in cumulative raw returns subsequent to the ex‐dates, for industrial non‐financial companies. These findings support buying pressure hypothesis suggested by Dhatt et al. (1994, 1996 ).