ANNUITIZED ASSET ADEQUACY IN JAPAN: THE DEMAND FOR INDIVIDUAL PENSIONS

In this paper, I analyze the impact of social security wealth, retirement payments, and living expenses during retirement on people's retirement savings in general, and on their individual pension holdings in particular, using micro data from a 1996 Japanese household survey. I confirm a replacement effect of social security on saving for all types of households and on individual pensions for self‐employed households only. This suggests that the social security assets of self‐employed households are less than their optimal level of annuitized assets and that they would increase their demand for individual pensions if social security benefits were to be reduced.     

THE PRESIDENT'S COMMISSION ON PENSION POLICY HOUSEHOLD SURVEY 1979: NET WEALTH DISTRIBUTIONS BY TYPE AND AGE FOR THE UNITED STATES

A household survey was done for the U.S. President's Commission on Pension Policy (1979-81). This paper reports on the net wealth of families in the United States for the year 1979, the first wave of the survey. The survey was begun in September 1979 and was a two-wave, nationwide random sample of households in the United States. The survey instrument gathered information on income, wealth, labor supply, participation in pension plans, vesting status, entitlement to various benefits, attitudinal views on retirement, social security wealth, and individual demographic characteristics. Details of the survey methodology are reported. A response rate of sixty-two percent was achieved among the 6,384 dwelling units in the first wave. Imputations are made to calculate the wealth embodied in private and public employee-based pensions. Included in this valuation is an adjustment for expected vesting status in the pension plan. Net wealth is examined by type and age of the head of household. The average net wealth of the family is $53,956, and the average value of retirement wealth is $3,281 which comprises about 5 to 6 percent of net wealth. The striking changes in the portfolio of net wealth are depicted over the cross-section of age cohorts. The oldest age cohort, 65 and over, is found to have for retirement wealth the lowest frequency of ownership, the lowest proportion of their portfolio in this form of wealth, and the second to lowest average value.     

The role of personality traits in pension decisions: findings and policy recommendations

Many countries need to stimulate pension participation and contribution to ensure their citizens are prepared adequately for retirement. Identifying at-risk groups with tendencies of not joining pension plans will help governments target strategies to improve pension awareness and participation. This study investigates the role of personality traits in pension decision making using data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study. Our results demonstrate that Extraversion significantly correlates with non-participation in private pensions, including both employer run and personal pensions. Individuals who are high in Conscientiousness are more likely to participate and pay more into personal pensions. Openness to experience is negatively correlated with saving via personal pensions. Agreeableness and Extraversion correlate inversely with the amount contributed to personal plans. This paper discusses our findings in detail and offers policy implications which may help promote pension participation and ease the problem of old age poverty.     

Women and Retirement Pensions: A Research Review

Abstract

The links between women's caring work and access to economic resources are particularly critical in the context of widespread public policy debates about retirement and pensions, many of which neglect care as a key issue for analysis. However, among feminist economists it is widely recognized that women's patterns of care provision have adverse implications for their access to economic resources in later life. The feminist economics literature examines many of the interactions between women's caring roles and their access to resources, particularly women's capacity to access economic resources through publicly mandated or regulated pension schemes. This article reviews research that places women's patterns of work and care at the center of analyses of retirement pension policy in an effort to provide a summary of research on gender and pensions policy and to contrast the extent to which differing institutional and policy frameworks accommodate women's caring roles.     

The future of pensions in Europe

Unfunded state pension schemes are projected to become financially unsustainable. This is usually attributed to demographic trends. Yet trends in unemployment and in female labour force participation are quantitatively as important. Improvements in either or both might be sufficient to rescue existing state schemes, especially if combined with an end to the practice of allowing, even after retirement, the value of a pension to rise with national earnings rather than prices.
Attempts at piecemeal reform are important because nothing in economic theory suggests a switch to the alternative, fully funded pensions is desirable. Not only would such a transition be costly, and therefore politically difficult; it also neglects the fact that it makes sense to diversify the retirement portfolio, holding claims both on labour productivity and on capital assets. One can even view pensions as part of a more sophisticated system of intergenerational transfers through which workers finance their earlier education and subsequent retirement.     

延迟退休年龄与养老保险收支余额:作用机制及政策效应

文章通过连续时间养老金收支模型分析认为延迟退休年龄对养老保险计划收支余额的影响来自四个方面的效应,即缴费年限效应、领取年限效应、替代率效应和差异效应。改革的最终效果是上述四种效应共同作用的结果。短期看,前两种效应占据主导;长期看,后两种效应也具有显著影响。延迟退休年龄的政策效果和工资增长率、养老金增长率、改革速度以及未来参保人口结构有关。理论分析和实证检验结果表明,无论从改革过程还是从对养老保险计划收支余额的影响看,延迟退休年龄都是一个复杂而渐进的过程,延迟退休年龄必将减轻政府在养老保险方面负担的传统说法并不全面。     

Micro simulations on the effects of ageing-related policy measures

In the Netherlands, like in most OECD-countries, the ageing of the population endangers the sustainability of public finances. In this paper a dynamic micro simulation model is used for calculating the financial and economic implications of the ageing problem and the policy measures considered. The model uses micro datasets of all Dutch pensions and pension entitlements. The retirement decision is modelled by using an option value approach.     

Life Expectancy and Claiming Behavior in a Flexible Pension System

We study the relationship between early claiming of pensions and incentives in the highly flexible Norwegian public pension system, measuring incentives to claim based on an estimated model for expected longevity. Despite a strong correlation between incentives and claiming decisions, the additional costs to public budgets arising from this selection turn out to be modest. Based on analyses exploiting only variation in expected pensions generated by variation in parental longevities and only claiming of pensions not in conjunction with retirement, we conclude that part of the selection is active: some individuals claim pensions early because they gain from doing so.     

OCCUPATIONAL PENSIONS, WAGES, AND JOB MOBILITY IN GERMANY

Pension‐covered workers in Germany are three times less likely to change jobs than workers not covered by an occupational pension scheme. This paper examines the effects of occupational pension coverage and pension portability loss on voluntary job changes using a sample selection model with endogenous switching. The model estimates, derived from western German panel data for 1985–1998, indicate that occupational pension coverage reduces worker mobility by imposing a capital loss on those leaving their job before retirement age. Moreover, pension‐covered workers receive a higher compensation, which discourages mobility. Making pensions portable increases mobility, but from a low initial level.     

The Effect of Benefit Reductions on the Retirement Age: The Heterogeneous Response of Manual and Non‐Manual Workers

I estimate the effect of benefit reductions on the timing of retirement. The introduction of actuarial adjustments in the German public pension system serves as a source of exogenous variation to estimate discrete time transition rates into retirement for individuals of age 60–66. Responses to benefit reductions are elaborated separately for manual and non‐manual workers. On average, individuals postpone retirement by 13.2 months if pension benefits are reduced by 3.6 percent for each year of early retirement. This result is in line with the previous quasi‐experimental literature and suggests that people respond to the incentive of reducing the implicit tax on further periods of work. However, among men the response is about 50 percent lower for manual workers compared to non‐manual workers. Surprisingly, this does not necessarily indicate that retirement incomes of manual workers deteriorate. The explanation is that disability pensions are available at age 63—without benefit reductions.     

Endogenous retirement and public pension system reform in Spain

Population aging has spurred developed countries around the world to reform their PAYG pension systems. In particular, delaying legal retirement ages and reducing the generosity of pension benefits have been widely implemented changes. This paper assesses the potential success of these policies in the case of the Spanish economy, and compares them with the results obtained by the (rather modest) reforms already implemented in 1997 and 2001. This evaluation is accomplished in a heterogeneous-agent dynamic general equilibrium model where individuals can adjust their retirement ages in response to changes to the pension rules. We check the ability of the model to reproduce the basic stylized facts of retirement behavior (particularly the pattern of early retirement induced by minimum pensions). The model is then used to explore the impact of pension reforms. We find that already implemented changes actually increase the implicit liabilities of the system. In contrast, delaying the legal retirement age and extending the averaging period in the pension formula to cover most of the individual's life-cycle can reduce the implicit liabilities substantially. These findings reveal the failure of the Spanish political system to distribute the costs of population aging more evenly across the generations.     

On myopia as rationale for social security

It has been argued that “paternalistically motivated forced savings constitutes an important, and to some the most important, rationale for social security retirement systems.” This paper revisits the role played by myopia in generating a theoretical rationale for pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security in dynamically efficient economies. If the competing asset is linear storage and myopic agents are allowed to borrow against future pension benefits, there is no welfare-rationale for PAYG pensions. Sufficiently strong myopia may justify such pensions only if agents cannot borrow against their future pension, but then they are at a zero-saving corner. With enough myopia, co-existence of positive optimal pensions and positive private saving is possible if the return to saving declines with saving, as in a model with a neoclassical technology.     

Are Tax Expenditures of Individuals Only a Tool of Tax Optimisation?

The paper focuses on tax expenditures of individuals, which are one of the fiscal tools of the state. In the Czech Republic they are primarily aimed at housing policy, pension policy, and philanthropy, and the question is the extent to which tax expenditures can influence the preferences of tax payers. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effect of tax expenditures of individuals in the form of tax deductions for social policy, housing support and retirement savings. We also evaluate whether these tax deductions fulfill the fiscal functions for which they were introduced and the extent to which taxpayers use them. Methodically, the research is based on the analysis of secondary statistical data of the Financial Administration of the Czech Republic and results from aggregated tax returns filed for the period 2005–2015. The effect of tax deductions was decreased by abolition of the progressive rate of personal income taxes and by introduction of a uniform tax rate of 15%. Tax deductions for retirement savings do not have a sufficiently strong motivational impact and do not affect taxpayers in the context of public policy. Deductions for mortgage interest can be regarded as a form of major housing support, but are related to taxpayer income and favor those with higher incomes.     

An increase in the retirement age in China: the regional economic effects

China’s pension system is in need of comprehensive reform. One measure on which we focus is to increase the retirement age. It is likely that a change in retirement age will have significantly different effects across China’s regions. Interregional disparities are already very substantial in China and it will be important to know how changes in pension arrangements will affect disparities. We consider four policies to increase the retirement age from 60 to 61. They differ according the use made of the extra revenue generated by the policy. All four policies increase welfare and reduce the interregional welfare gap.     

Taxes,Retirement Transfers,and Annuities*

In most countries, retirement benefits from pension saving must be taken as an annuity. By contrast, Australia allows benefits to be taken as a lump sum, and instead has recently introduced various tax incentives to encourage annuity purchase. This paper investigates the effectiveness of these tax concessions, and concludes that they do little to achieve this objective This is because they are nullified by the provisions of the broader tax and social security framework within which Australian private pension policy is set     

A young EU member’s ageing: budgetary and macroeconomic consequences of Slovenia’s demographic prospects

In this paper, we simulate a macroeconometric model of Slovenia over the period 2012–2060, using the projected demographic development as input, and determine time paths for budgetary and macroeconomic variables under alternative assumptions about Slovenian policy instruments so as to limit budgetary pressures stemming from population ageing. The main macroeconomic indicators (growth, employment, price stability, sustainable public finances) are shown to depend on the assumed long-run policy options followed. It is demonstrated that the ageing of the Slovenian population projected in the demographic forecast leads to severe budgetary problems unless increases of the retirement age, rising social security contributions or reductions of state financed pensions are implemented. A reduction of the pension replacement rate turns out to be the most effective measure to cope with the budgetary implications of population ageing. However, none of the analysed policy measures is sufficient to stabilise the debt ratio.     

The efficiency of sponsor and participant portfolio choices in 401(k) plans

To evaluate the extent of inefficient behavior in 401(k) pensions, now the dominant form of retirement saving in America, we attribute inefficiencies separately to the employer's menu design versus participant portfolio elections. Results from our analysis of over 1000 plans and a million participants demonstrate that most sponsors offer efficient investment menus, but participants undo this by constructing inefficient portfolios thus reducing their potential retirement wealth by one-fifth. Because participants are the main source of inefficient pension investment choices, strategies targeting their behavior may be useful — including improved default investment strategies or educational programs. We also show that the number of options offered is less important than the range of funds provided when designing 401(k) menus.     

PUBLIC POLICY TOWARDS PRIVATE PENSIONS

This paper reviews and evaluates public policy towards private pensions which has developed in the U.S. over the past 60 years. It is shown that research results reported in the literature are not sufficiently conclusive to permit resolution of all, or even the most important, efficiency questions that surround pension policy. Given available information, a series of policy recommendations are made to either retain or alter current federal policy towards pensions. Unanswered research questions that prevent a more definitive set of conclusions are identified and discussed     

Optimal Social Insurance and Health Inequality

This paper integrates into public economics a biologically founded, stochastic process of individual aging. The novel approach enables us to quantitatively characterize the optimal joint design of health and retirement policy behind the veil of ignorance for today and in response to future medical progress. Calibrating our model to Germany, our analysis suggests that the current social insurance policy instruments are set close to the (constrained) socially optimal levels, given proportional contribution rates for health and pension finance, the equivalence principle in the pension system, and a common statutory retirement age. Future progress in medical technology calls for a potentially drastic increase in health spending and a higher retirement age without lowering the pension contribution rate. Interestingly, from an ex ante point of view, medical progress and higher health spending are in conflict with the goal to reduce health inequality.     

On the Fairness of Early-Retirement Provisions

Abstract. A crucial parameter for increasing the retirement age is the early-retirement discount of the public pension system. Critics of the present German system argue that the downward adjustment of the pension for early retirees is too small compared with a 'fair' system and thus encourages early retirement. We discuss several notions of 'fairness' of early-retirement provisions and propose a concept called 'distributive neutrality', which states that the ratio between total benefits and total contributions should not depend systematically on the individual's ability. By applying this concept to the German retirement benefit formula and taking empirically estimated relationships between annual income (as a proxy for ability), life expectancy and retirement age into account, we show that at the present discount rate of 3.6% per year there is redistribution from low to high earners, which, surprisingly, could be attenuated by raising the discount rate.