欧洲中央银行货币政策透明度研究

大多数国家的央行开始摈弃隐秘性传统,其货币政策逐渐走向开放和透明。如何最充分、准确、及时地向公众披露与解释货币政策目标、策略和决策已成为多数国家货币政策操作所面临的首要问题,本文首先对欧洲中央银行在实践中所采用的主要沟通策略和工具进行归纳和介绍,然后将欧洲中央银行与世界其他主要中央银行的信息公开程度进行横向比较,最后就关于提高欧洲中央银行货币政策透明度的相关建议和争议进行评述。     

欧洲中央银行货币政策目标与货币政策调控手段的实施

1998年7月1日欧洲中央银行正式建立。欧洲中央银行由两个层次组成:一是欧洲中央银行(EuropeanCentralBank,EBC)本身,另一个是欧洲中央银行体系(EuropeanSystemofCentralBanks,ESCB),由各成员国的中央银行组成,不加入欧元区的其他国家也属于欧洲中央银行体系的成员。欧洲中央银行是决策机构,各成员国中央银行是执行机构。即欧洲中央银行在欧元区内为所有国家制定统一的货币政策,然后交由各成员国中央银行来实施执行。从1999年1月1日起,欧元区各国中央银行制定货币政策和货币法律的权利上交给欧洲中央银行。欧洲中央银行的职能是:制定和…     

欧洲中央银行货币政策述评及前景展望

文章对欧洲中央银行稳定导向型货币政策进行了阐述与前景分析。     

未来欧元区面临的主要问题

一、欧洲中央银行的独立性和权威性问题为了保持欧元的稳定,首先要求建立一个真正权威的欧洲中央银行,使其具有独立制订符合共同利益的货币政策,对欧洲统一大市场进行宏观调控的职能。按照《马约》设计蓝图,欧洲中央银行体系将分为两个层次：高层为未来的欧洲中央银行...     

评析欧元区统一的货币政策

本文对欧洲中央银行在欧元区实行统一的货币政策进行了评析,通过研究提出了影响统一货币政策实施和效果的潜在矛盾,认为统一货币政策所面临的问题不是技术问题而利益问题,欧元区成员国对待不对称冲击的政策以反应呈现为一种动态博弈过程,并据此提出只有通过加强成员国的利益趋同、经济周期同步、财政政策的协调配合,甚至统一经济政策的实施才能进一步促使统一货币政策的有效运作。     

欧元如何运行——试析欧洲中央银行体系的货币政策工具

举世瞩目的欧元已于1999年1月1日正式启动.作为一种跨国界货币,欧元的运行将与以往各个主权国家的货币有着很大的不同.欧洲中央银行体系(ESCB)是欧元的操作主体,它的货币政策将对欧元的未来发展产生直接而重大的影响.有鉴于此,本文从欧洲中央银行的货币政策工具入手来简要分析欧元的运行框架.     

欧洲经济与货币联盟中财政纪律的重要性分析

随着欧洲经济与货币联盟进入第三阶段,联盟内部集中的货币政策与分散的财政政策间的协调变得尤为重要。这时各国已经失去了货币政策这个调节宏观经济的工具,只能利用财政政策来缓解负面冲击并实现其宏观经济目标。如何减少集中的货币政策与分散的财政政策的冲突,保证欧洲中央银行货币政策的有效性,是联盟一直以来致力解决的问题。一、财政政策对各成员国的重要性随着欧洲经货联盟的发展,单一市场的完成,各成员国间经济的相关性进一步增强。虽然在进入第三阶段前,各国为完成《马约》规定的趋同标准做出了巨大的努力,但他们在国家大小、市场结…     

欢洲经济与货币联盟中财政纪律的重要性分析

随着欧洲经济与货币联盟进入第三阶段，联盟内部集中的货币政策与分散的财政政策间的协调变得尤为重要。这时各国已经失去了货币政策这个调节宏观经济的工具，只能利用财政政策来缓解负面冲击并实现其宏观经济目标。如何减少集中的货币政策与分散的财政政策的冲突，保证欧洲中央银行货币政策的有效性，是联盟一直以来致力解决的问题。     

欧洲中央银行统一货币政策的内外制约与协调改进

欧洲央行的统一货币政策实施中在维持物价稳定、促进经济增长等方面起到了一定的作用 ,但在运行中也暴露出了央行责任弱化、决策过程忽略整体利益、货币政策战略目标互相冲突等政策机制的内在缺陷 ;同时 ,也存在货币政策难以达到统一、有效的目标、欧元区成员国相对独立的财政政策与统一的货币政策难以协调等外在制约。因此 ,欧洲中央银行需通过强化非正式的责任义务、保持决策的公开性、建立经济与政治各领域新的制衡机制、处罚机制、调整货币政策战略、统一协调财政政策等措施来改进货币政策。     

从英国脱欧看欧盟内部经济的不稳定因素

欧盟内部大多数国家经济结构不合理,产业结构单一,经济增长严重依赖外需拉动,缺少抵御世界金融危机的能力.虽然建立了欧洲中央银行,货币政策实现了统一,但各成员国却各自拥有相对独立的财政政策,这种统一的货币政策与分散的财政政策之间存在着不可调和的矛盾,使得各国的宏观调控能力大幅度减弱.一些欧盟国家的执政党为了获取民众的选票,不顾本国实际经济发展水平和实力,长期实行高社会福利的政策,过高的福利支出成为了政府的沉重经济负担,政府负债累累.而且欧元区的金融监管不足,与快速发展的金融创新不相适应,也为欧元区国家的经济发展埋下了隐患.     

Transparency and central bank losses in developing countries

Recent evidence shows central banks suffering from losses in some developing countries. This is a surprise to economists and policymakers. At the same time, these banks are asked to conduct monetary policy within a more transparent framework. Therefore, this paper seeks to answer the following question: Would more transparency in developing countries suffering from central bank losses be beneficial?This paper shows that the cost constraints of conducting monetary policy, central bank losses, in both transparency and opacity alike is significant and affects positively the error of the private sector in expected inflation rate and the output gap. In a country suffering from central bank losses, the expected benefits of transparency and the existence of cost constraint move in two opposite directions. As a result, it is unwise for developing countries suffering from central bank losses to focus on transparency. Priority should be given to fixing monetary policy and to developing financial markets.     

货币政策有效性与货币政策透明制度的兴起

本文着重探讨货币政策透明性与货币政策有效性之间的关系,目的在于说明货币政策透明制度能够兴起的一个关键因素在于货币政策的透明性有利于提高货币政策的有效性。在标准的“时间不一致性”理论里面,货币政策是否透明对货币政策的效应是没有影响的,因为在这类理论里面,经济主体能够使用所有可获得的信息形成与经济系统相一致的、无偏的估计。但问题的关键在于,这种假设的基本前提在实践中并不完全成立。当考虑到经济主体对经济运行结果和经济运行过程的不完全认知时,货币政策透明性对于促进经济主体的学习过程,稳定和引导公众的通胀预期,进而提高货币政策的有效性就起着至关重要的作用。     

The effects of public deficits on money growth in the European Union

The impact of government debt on the money supply has been studied for different countries, with an emphasis on developing countries and the U.S. This topic becomes especially interesting in European Union countries that have high public deficits and low inflation rates. It is also very relevant in the monetary union, with a European central bank controlling monetary policy and introducing monetary measures for all the member countries. The main goal of this paper is to analyze if there is any relationship between public deficits and monetary growth in the European Union. The conclusions presented in the previous literature are ambiguous. Some studies concluded that there is little evidence that government debt influences money in some of the member countries.     

Monetary policy implementation and transmission in the European Monetary Union

I discuss possible problems engendered by loss of national monetary policies, and study them from three empirical perspectives. First, are business cycles sufficiently synchronized across EMU member countries? The evidence suggests that economic activity in those countries has become increasingly correlated in the 1990s, and that policy co–ordination has played a role in generating that outcome. Second, are there asymmetries in the mechanisms through which policy affects economic activity? The paper documents that policy transmission was indeed heterogeneous in the member countries, and that structural and financial factors were sensibly related to cross–country differences in the response of output to a monetary policy shock. Third, how is policy implemented in an environment of diverse business cycle fundamentals and transmission mechanisms? Estimation of monetary policy reaction functions finds that the European Central Bank is closer to an aggregate of the central banks in Germany, France, and Italy than to the Bundesbank alone.     

Is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation?

Since the 1990s inflation targeting (IT) has been adopted by several central banks as a strategy for monetary policy. It is expected that the adoption of this monetary regime can reduce inflation and inflation volatility. This article is concerned with these issues and makes use of the Propensity Score Matching methodology on a sample of 180 countries for the period from 1990 to 2007. For analysis, the sample is split into two sets of countries (advanced and developing). The findings suggest that the adoption of IT is an ideal monetary regime for developing economies and, in addition to reducing inflation volatility, can drive inflation down to internationally acceptable levels. Regarding advanced economies, the adoption of IT does not appear to represent an advantageous strategy. In brief, the empirical results indicate that the adoption of IT is useful for countries that must enhance their credibility for the management of monetary policy.     

On the Future of Inflation Targeting in East Asia

This article analyzes the problems associated with inflation targeting (IT) regimes in a number of East Asian countries. It scrutinizes the policy conflicts that can arise when a central bank that has adopted a formal inflation target to guide the conduct of monetary policy simultaneously manages the exchange rate and pursues financial stability objectives. To this end, it empirically investigates the importance of exchange rate and terms of trade movements as determinants of inflation rates across East Asian economies and discusses the role of central banks in guarding financial stability and the ways this may conflict with an IT regime. The article argues that IT never really has been a suitable monetary framework for East Asian countries and that it should hence be supplanted by transparent monetary frameworks that explicitly recognize the multiple goals that are being pursued by East Asian central banks.     

What Do Data Say About Monetary Policy,Bank Liquidity and Bank Risk Taking?

This paper tests empirically the linkage between banks' investment and interbank lending decisions in response to interest rate changes. We draw conclusions for the monetary policy, which uses the interest rate as its main tool. Across European countries we find that the risk-free (i.e. monetary policy) interest rate negatively affects the liquidity retained by banks and the decision of a bank to be a lender in the interbank market. Instead, the interbank interest rate has a positive impact on these decisions. We also find that banks who lend show less risk-taking behaviour and tend to be smaller than those who are borrowers. Most importantly, the risk-free interest rate is positively correlated with loans investment and bank risk-taking behaviour.     

A two-pillar DSGE monetary policy model for the euro area

The current financial crisis has revived the interest for monitoring both monetary and credit developments. Over the past two decades, consistent with the adoption of inflation targeting strategies by a growing number of central banks and the development of New Keynesian models for which monetary aggregates are largely irrelevant, money and credit have been progressively neglected in the conduct of monetary policy. A striking exception has been the Eurosystem, which has implemented a strategy known as the “two-pillar monetary policy strategy” giving a prominent role for money. In this paper, we develop a small optimizing model based on Ireland (2004), estimated on euro area data and featuring this two-pillar strategy. We evaluate an ECB-style cross-checking policy rule in a DSGE model with real balance effects of money. We find some evidence that indeed money plays a non-trivial role in explaining the euro area business cycle. This provides a rationale for the central bank to factor in monetary developments but also raises some issues regarding the reliability of M3 as an appropriate monetary indicator. We find some evidence that the ECB has systematically reacted to a filtered measure of money growth but weak evidence it has reacted more aggressively during excess money growth periods.     

CONSUMERS' INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND MONETARY POLICY IN EUROPE

This article analyses the effects of monetary policy decisions on inflation expectations of European consumers. Using a novel approach, I convert qualitative survey responses of consumers in various European countries into a quantitative time series of inflation expectations. I investigate the effects of unanticipated movements in interest rates and inflation on inflation expectations across European countries. I inter alia seek to explore whether the reaction differs of consumers in countries with more credible central banks than those in less credible countries.     

Surplus liquidity,central bank losses and the use of reserve requirements in emerging markets

Since the turn of the millennium, stocks of foreign reserves held by central banks in many emerging markets and developing countries have exceeded currency in circulation. To steer money market rates, these central banks have been absorbing liquidity from, rather than providing it to, the banking sector in their regular monetary policy operations. When interest rates in countries with major reserve currencies are low, the yield on foreign reserves is low. A higher interest rate on liquidity‐absorbing operations may expose central banks to losses. Although a central bank is not a profit‐maximizing institution, central bank losses can undermine the independence of the central bank. Using data for a large panel of central banks, this paper provides some evidence that central banks tend to apply low‐remunerated reserve requirements when profitability is at stake.