企业知识转移负面效应研究评述与展望北大核心

随着知识经济的全球化,知识转移负面效应研究不断涌现,但文献涉及领域较分散,缺乏系统性分析。运用文献计量分析和定性评述相结合的方法,基于Citespace和VOSviewer软件,对知识转移负面效应的研究概况、研究热点和演进脉络进行可视化分析。以2000-2021年的134篇文献为样本,全面考察知识转移负面效应的前因、后果和调节因素,构建知识转移负面效应综合分析框架,系统揭示知识转移过程中负面效应形成机制及其对创新绩效的影响,并对未来研究方向提出建议,即企业如果能够在知识转移前确保良好的始发状态,在转移过程中巧妙地避开衍生的负面效应以及在转移后对负面效应进行积极引导,能更好地提升知识转移效率和效果。     

复杂产品系统的技术创新及其风险分析

随着复杂产品系统在当今的经济社会中扮演着越来越重要的角色,其创新过程也就成为技术创新研究领域的一大热点。探讨了复杂产品系统的定义、内涵,总结了复杂产品系统的特征,概括了复杂产品系统创新的关键风险因素,并分析了复杂产品系统的技术创新过程,最后得出了进行创新风险管理的途径。     

创新生态系统的理论演进与热点前沿：一项文献计量分析研究

本文利用CiteSpace对Web of Science数据库中2001—2018年关于创新生态系统领域的已有研究进行文献计量分析。基于主题词共现分析结果,本文首先对创新生态系统的基础研究进行系统性梳理;其次,本文进一步追踪该领域2016—2018年期间的最新文献及其相关引用情况,基于文献共被引分析结果,归纳了三大研究前沿热点:"生态系统"反思及补充、系统风险预测及应对、系统成员行为与微观治理机制;最后,文章瞄准现有研究存在的不足,对未来研究提出合适的探索方向。     

房地产信托投资基金研究的文献计量分析

从数量特征、合作特征、学科特征和研究热点等维度对房地产信托投资基金的国际研究现状进行了文献计量分析,监控了国际研究态势,发现了该领域的研究热点和方向。     

人力资本的复杂特征研究

文章分析了人力资本研究前沿即人力资本定价理论的困境,认为原因在于还原论指导下的人力资本研究是有局限性的,考察现代自然科学研究方法论的进展,有必要把复杂系统研究方法论引入人力资本定价领域,首先解构其复杂性特征。人力资本是一个典型的复杂系统,具有开放性、非线性、统计性、多样性、整体性等复杂特征。     

中国企业转型升级研究热点与前沿

中国关于企业转型升级的研究已有近20年历史,对于其研究历程和发展动向虽有相关综述性研究,但尚未有研究运用文献计量方法进行系统科学的整理。采用CiteSpace文献计量工具绘制企业转型升级知识图谱,并结合共词分析、聚类分析和战略坐标等方法,以CSSCI数据库中1998-2014年5 427篇企业转型升级研究论文为对象,探讨该领域研究状况、研究热点和研究前沿。研究结果显示：全球价值链、加工贸易、制造业转移、中国产业结构升级、产业集群升级和转型升级路径等是中国企业转型升级领域的主要研究热点;品牌经济、传统产业转型、中小企业转型升级、研发投入和代工企业等可能成为该领域研究前沿。     

基于知识图谱的国内区域创新研究

本文采用文献计量方法,并运用可视化工具绘制知识图谱,对在CNKI上检索到的4631篇有关区域创新研究的文献进行可视化分析。研究发现,我国区域创新的研究热点从"区域创新系统""区域创新能力"等方面向"协同创新""创新驱动"等方面转移。未来几年在"科技创新""创新生态系统"等方面的研究将会获得更多研究者的关注。本文通过区域创新领域的发展脉络和研究热点的整理分析,揭示国内区域创新研究的趋势,为相关学者在该领域的研究提供有价值的参考。     

收入不平等问题最新研究热点分析

长期以来,收入不平等是研究热点,近五年来热度进一步上升,本文借助Web 0f Science的搜索功能考察近五年来这一领域研究的最新进展、热点与亮点,范围是SSCI索引论文。本文对收入不平等文献的发文量进行了分析,并说明了差商法有助于描述各类别收入不平等文献的增长速度。文章回顾了收入不平等研究领域的奠基性文献和收入分配分析的来龙去脉;介绍了近五年来收入分配理论研究中最突出的两个方向,其中之一是邦费罗尼曲线与指数;评介了有关我国收入不平等及相关问题的研究成果。此外,本文还介绍了收入不平等分析方法在其他不平等分析中的拓展与应用。     

国际视阈下创新理论研究脉络与热点分析——基于Wos的SSCI/SCI数据源

以Web of Science数据库收录的1987-2016年国际创新理论文献为研究对象,对国际视阈下创新理论研究进行述评。采用文献计量方法对创新理论研究的科研力量分布、核心作者合作网络、文献共被引和研究热点演化等内容进行分析。结果发现:创新理论研究热门区域主要集中于美国和欧洲;开放式创新、农业创新系统、青光眼诊断创新、知识密集型服务、创新指标是国际创新理论的5个主要学术集群;组织创新、吸收能力、动态能力、开放式创新和产品结构创新是国际创新理论领域的研究热点与趋势。     

基于复杂网络视角集群创新网络研究进展与评述

基于复杂网络视角的集群创新网络研究成为集群创新系统研究的新热点。针对创新网络研究中创新运行机制、创新系统结构的复杂性特征,文章梳理了复杂系统研究和社会网络研究的发展脉络,阐述了复杂网络理论研究的重要成果,分析了目前国内基于复杂网络的创新研究的重要进展与不足。研究表明,基于复杂性系统集群创新网络研究近年来取得了较大进展,未来发展有较大的空间,集群创新网络框架与传播系统分析依然存在许多空白,建立理论框架、用创新方法进行实证分析、对研究主体进行多元分析是未来实现突破的重要领域。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

新员工主动社会化行为与组织承诺关系研究——以社会资本为中介变量

为了探索新员工主动社会化行为影响组织承诺的过程,本文对来自企业的401个有效样本进行了实证分析。本研究运用层级回归的方法,控制了人口统计变量的影响后,发现员工的搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为对组织承诺有直接的正面影响,同时,通过员工社会资本对员工组织承诺产生了间接的正面影响。社会资本在员工搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为影响组织承诺的机制中起部分中介作用。员工的关系构建行为对组织承诺没有显著影响,但对员工社会资本存在显著的正面影响。     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.     

Evidence on the impact of R&D and ICT investments on innovation and productivity in Italian firms

Both research and development (R&D) and information and communication technology (ICT) investment have been identified as sources of relative innovation underperformance in Europe vis-à-vis the USA. In this article, we investigate the R&D and ICT investment at the firm level in an effort to assess their relative importance and to what extent they are complements or substitutes. We use data on a large unbalanced panel data sample of Italian manufacturing firms constructed from four consecutive waves of a survey of manufacturing firms, to estimate a version of the CDM model of R&D, innovation, and productivity [Crépon–Duguet–Mairesse 1998. Research, innovation and productivity: An econometric analysis at the firm level. Economics of Innovation and New Technology 7, no. 2: 115–58] that has been modified to include ICT investment and R&D as the two main inputs into innovation and productivity. We find that R&D and ICT are both strongly associated with innovation and productivity, with R&D being more important for innovation, and ICT investment being more important for productivity. For the median firm, rates of return to both investments are so high that they suggest considerably underinvestment in both these activities. We explore the possible complementarity between R&D and ICT in innovation and production, but find none, although we do find complementarity between R&D and worker skill in innovation.     

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth*

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth are identified. Included is a discussion of his contributions on: the determinants of differences in speed of adoption of innovations; the use of patents to measure technology; the private and social returns to R&D; and spillover effects from R&D. Griliches's own evaluation of his research contribution is compared to the evaluation of others in the field, using as evidence citation counts of his works collected from the online Web of Science. Griliches's most important contribution is his 1957 Econometrica hybrid corn paper that is a foundation of the economics of technological innovation. Remarkably, the trend in annual citations to the paper has continued to increase for over 40 years. Finally, we summarize Griliches's most recent views on the practice of economics and on the most important unanswered questions in the economics of technology and growth.