PMC承包商的风险分析

项目管理承包(PMC)作为一种大型国际工程项目管理与承包模式,在国际工程项目管理中发挥着越来越大的作用.本文从PMC的概念、PMC合同费用构成、PMC承包商承担风险不同的分类入手,对PMC承包商在项目中的职责及其在项目各阶段承担的风险进行了深入分析,并对PMC承包商如何应对这些风险给出了相应的对策.     

境外电站EPC承包商汇率风险控制

由于近年来走出国门从事境外电站EPC项目的承包商逐渐增多,与此同时,国际结算货币汇率变动幅度增大,不确定性也越来越大,特别是2008年的世界金融危机给汇率的变动带来新的更大的不确定性,迫使从事境外电站EPC项目的承包商必须高度重视对汇率风险的分析和控制。     

国际工程项目遴选因素分析

目前国际工程承包市场竞争日益激烈,项目信息来源渠道也越来越广泛,如何对国际工程项目进行遴选已成为我国国际工程承包商迫切需要解决的问题。本文介绍了国际工程项目的遴选流程,以帮助承包商在项目遴选过程中能够合理规避风险,选择优质项目。     

国际工程项目遴选因素分析北大核心CSSCISSCI

目前国际工程承包市场竞争日益激烈,项目信息来源渠道也越来越广泛,如何对国际工程项目进行遴选已成为我国国际工程承包商迫切需要解决的问题。本文介绍了国际工程项目的遴选流程,以帮助承包商在项目遴选过程中能够合理规避风险,选择优质项目。     

国际工程物资采购外汇风险管理

在国际工程物资采购中,外汇风险管理对物资采购成本控制乃至整个项目成本控制具有重要意义。当项目材料设备进口支付币种和业主支付币种不一致时,负责采购的承包商便会面临外汇风险。承包商应对物资采购面临的外汇风险进行识别,并在对汇率进行预测的基础上对其进行衡量与评价,必要时采取选择货币法与合理利用含有汇率调整因子的调价公式、利用远期外汇交易、外币期权交易、投资法或BSI法等对外汇风险进行管理。     

国际工程承包主要金融交易方式的选择分析

随着人民币相对美元等主要货币的汇率变动弹性增大,响应国家"走出去"政策承包海外工程的我国国际工程承包商正面临着越来越大的外汇风险,迫切需要了解和掌握各种金融交易方式在外汇风险管理中的应用。本文对现阶段我国国际工程承包商防范外汇风险可以利用的远期外汇交易及其衍生形式、外汇期权交易、BSI法以及货币互换等金融交易方式进行了分析,指出应当在给定条件下,根据每一金融交易方式所锁定的汇率选择较优者管理国际工程承包项目面临的外汇风险。     

新形势下对外承包工程外汇风险分析及防范

外汇汇率风险,如何应对外汇风险,如何制定国际工程外汇风险防范措施和对策,对提高企业的国际应变能力、国际竞争能力和保证工程项目的经济效益起到至关重要的作用.     

ECC合同中的"风险分摊"程序

国际工程承包是一项风险较大的事业，无论是工程项目的业主或是承包商均会面临一系列的风险，都必须正视风险并对风险作出决策。为了保证项目的顺利实施，为了达到项目的目标，工程项目业主和承包商均希望实施工程项目的合同条款中尽可能地合理分摊风险，以便业主或承包商采取相应的措施来防范风险或转移风险。英国土木工程学会1995年11月出版的工程施工合同（Engineer-ingandConstructionContract，简称ECC合同）对工程实施中的风险在业主与承包商之间进行了合理的分摊，使得合同双方明确了自身可能会面临的风险，以便采取措施规避风险…     

国际承包工程面临的若干风险及对策(下)

四、非系统性风险系统性风险对所有的国际承包商都会产生影响,并带来经济损失。如果一个国家的政局不稳或汇率动荡,那么在这个国家的国际承包商都会因此遭受经济损失,只不过影响的程度可能不同。但非系统性风险只对单个国际承包商造成经济损失。不同的承包商所面对的业主不同、所承包的项目不同、本身的资金实力不同、融资能力不同、管理能力不同,所以有的非系统性风险只对某一个承包商产生作用,而对其他承包商则毫无影响。１．投标阶段面临的风险(１）投标保函被业主没收的风险目前,绝大多数的国际承包工程项目都采用公开招标的办法来选择…     

国际工程承包中的汇率风险与防范

国际工程承包中的汇率风险与防范傅玉成（中国建筑工程总公司）国际工程承包中的汇率风险是指外汇汇率变化对承包商的赢利能力、净现金流量、资产负债状况及其在市场中的地位等方面产生的影响，这种影响可能给承包商带来不利的后果。因此正确估计和合理防范汇率风险，可以...     

Access to finance,foreign ownership and foreign takeovers in Germany

With this article we present the first microeconometric analysis of the impact of a foreign acquisition on the target firm’s access to finance. By using a large database of German firms, we furthermore investigate for the first time the link between foreign ownership and access to finance in Germany, one of the world's leading target countries for FDI. We use newly available comprehensive panel data that we constructed from information collected by the German statistical offices and from credit rating scores supplied by the leading German credit rating agency. We find foreign-owned firms in German manufacturing on average to show slightly more financing restrictions than domestically owned enterprises, but this very small difference diminishes once unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account. We further demonstrate that one reason for this finding is the preference of foreign investors for targets with relatively low credit-worthiness. Although the likelihood of a foreign acquisition appears to be correlated with credit rating, there is no impact of foreign takeovers on the credit constraints of the target firms ex post and therefore no support for the hypothesis that foreign takeovers ease financial frictions.     

Language and foreign trade

While language plays an important role in gravity models, there has been little attention to the channels through which a common language promotes bilateral trade. This work proposes separate series for a common language depending upon whether ease of communication facilitates trade through translation or the ability to communicate directly. The series related to direct communication is far more important in explaining bilateral trade, but the other series, based on translation, makes a distinct contribution as well. Either measure of a common language outperforms the measure in popular use, which is implicitly related to translation, and a combination of the two does far better. In addition, the paper examines the effect of two country-specific linguistic influences on trade: Literacy and linguistic diversity at home. Both of these influences promote foreign relative to domestic trade. Finally, the article studies the separate roles of English and network externalities.     

Does a foreign degree pay? The return to foreign education in China

A large body of literature is devoted to estimating causal effects of schooling; however, few studies have addressed the returns on education overseas. In this paper, we focus on the causal impact of holding a foreign education degree on one's performance in the homeland labor market in the context of China, the world's leading source of students pursuing education overseas. To address the issue of endogeneity, we construct an instrumental variable based on the exchange rate when the individual is about to make further education plans to isolate the arguably exogenous cost‐side shocks to one's education decision. Utilizing data from the China Household Financial Survey, we find that holding a foreign education degree has no effect on one's propensity to join the labor market but leads to a 108.95% increase in one's wage upon employment. Moreover, such effects display significant heterogeneity among returnees regarding their background. Specifically, returnees earn less if they went abroad after China joined the WTO, work in public sectors or have rich family resources.     

Reducing large net foreign liabilities

In light of persistently large net foreign liability (NFL) positions in several euro area countries, we analyze 138 episodes of sizeable NFL reductions for a broad sample of advanced and emerging economies. We provide stylized facts on the channels through which NFLs were reduced and estimate factors that make episodes “stable”, that is, sustained over the medium term. Our findings show that while GDP growth and valuation effects contribute most to NFL reductions overall, stable reduction episodes also require positive transaction effects (i.e., current account surpluses), in particular in advanced economies. Considering the different components of a country's external balance sheet, we observe that reduction episodes were almost exclusively driven by a decline in gross external liabilities in emerging economies, while in advanced economies also gross external asset accumulation contributed significantly, in particular in stable episodes. Our econometric analysis shows that NFL reductions are more likely to be sustained if a country records strong average real GDP growth during an episode and exits the episode with a larger current account surplus that consists of a combination of relatively high exports, low imports and low net factor income payments. Moreover, we find evidence that nominal effective exchange rate depreciation during an episode is helpful for achieving episode stability in the short run, while IMF programs and sovereign debt restructurings also contribute to longer term stability.     

Does foreign ownership matter?

The paper both compares productivity of Russian firms that have foreign direct investments with productivity of fully domestically owned firms and analyses spillovers from foreign‐owned firms to domestic firms. Foreign firms are found to be more productive than domestic ones, but productivity of the former is negatively affected by slow progress of reforms in the regions where they operate. It is also found that there are positive spillovers from foreign‐owned firms to domestic firms in the same industry, but negative effects on domestic firms that are vertically related to foreign‐owned firms. The stock of human capital in regions where foreign firms operate is one of the factors which help domestic firms to benefit from the entry of foreign firms.     

浅议中外合作基金

加入WTO,逐步进行适应性尝试,引入中外合作基金是必要且有益的。合作基金的推行会碰到许多障碍,需要谨慎地进行政策调控,严格地加强监管,其积极作用一定能够有效地发挥。     

Trust and foreign ownership: Evidence from intra‐European foreign direct investments

We use a novel firm‐level dataset to test whether trust affects the volume and the ownership structure FDI across Europe. Our methodology deals with the endogeneity of trust from the investor to the recipient country. We expect such a trust measure to affect investment decisions, and the associated knowledge capital, differently across types of foreign investors. In particular, this effect is expected to be stronger for industrial investors who possess transferable knowledge capital. The data confirm our predictions. Higher trust increases the number and volume of FDIs, but also the probability of co‐investing with a partner from the recipient country.     

德国对外直接投资与利用外资的现状和特点

德国是世界第三强国，也是欧洲头号经济大国。1999年，德国国内生产总值为38772亿马克（19824亿欧元）；2000年为39761亿马克（20330亿欧元），增幅达2.6%。德国是中国在欧洲最大的贸易与经济技术合作伙伴，了解、研究和分析德国最近十年的对外直接投资、利用外国直接投资的现状、特点及其国别、行业结构，对中国更有效地吸引德国企业来华投资，以及根据实际情况适当借鉴德国对外投资的经验均有启示作用。背景、现状与特点 自1990年两德统一以来，随着贸易壁垒的日益消除和政治鸿沟的不断弥合，国际间资本流动明显加快，经济全球化不断向纵…     

Determinants of foreign direct investment

Empirical studies of bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) activity show substantial differences in specifications with little agreement on the set of included covariates. We use Bayesian statistical techniques that allow one to select from a large set of candidates those variables most likely to be determinants of FDI activity. The variables with consistently high inclusion probabilities include traditional gravity variables, cultural distance factors, relative labour endowments and trade agreements. There is little support for multilateral trade openness, most host‐country business costs, host‐country infrastructure and host‐country institutions. Our results suggest that many covariates found significant by previous studies are not robust.     

Seasonality in foreign exchange volatility

The paper reports further empirical evidence on seasonality in foreign exchange volatility using high-frequency data. Using a basis of the signal plus noise framework, the approach decomposes tick-by-tick Reuters FXFX quotes into a random walk and a stationary component, termed the efficient price and the pricing error, respectively. The efficient price is not directly observable and is an approximation of the ‘true’ value. The pricing error captures the deviation between the observed indicative quote and the efficient price. Under the proposed model, daily and intraday volatilities of the efficient price are estimated. A pronounced pattern of volatility is uncovered and appears related to the daily activity cycle of major organized stock exchanges. It is argued that seasonality in volatility is a symptom of foreign exchange markets. Results confirm Andersen and Bollerslev's findings that significant seasonal effects are one important determinant of overall volatility at high frequencies.