Debt Overhang and Barter in Russia

This paper develops a model in which costly barter is used by firms to protect working capital against outside creditors. Although creditors could agree to postpone debt payments and to avoid destroying the firm's working capital, if the firm cannot commit not to divert cash ex post, the outcome of renegotiation still provides ex ante incentives to use barter. We show that the greater is the debt overhang, the more likely is the use of barter, with and without the possibility of debt restructuring. Empirical evidence from Russian firm-level data is shown to be consistent with the model's predictions. J. Comp. Econ., December 2002, 30(4), pp. 635–656. New Economic School, CEFIR, CEPR, and WDI, Nakhimovsky pr. 47, Moscow 117418, Russia; Sloan School of Management, M.I.T., 50 Memorial Drive, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142; and ROSES–CNRS and CEPR, Maison des Sciences économiques, 106–112 Bd de l'Hôpital, 75647 Paris Cedex 13, France. © 2002 Association for Comparative Economic Studies. Published by Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E41, G34, P31.     

Law Enforcement and Legal Presumptions

We compare two alternative legal presumptions, one more pro-defendant than the other, with the objective of reducing bureaucratic corruption to any target level at minimum social costs, broadly defined to include law enforcement costs, trial costs, and verdict error costs. In the absence of collusion possibilities between law enforcers and offenders, presumption of innocence involves lower social costs for low corruption targets while presumption of guilt has a cost advantage for high corruption targets. Allowing for collusion enlarges the corruption range over which the presumed innocence rule will dominate. However, there are two possible exceptions to this outcome, namely, if the government's law enforcement budget is limited and if the offenders can be penalized only up to a maximum permissible limit. In each of these cases, presumption of guilt may become the cost-effective rule. J. Comp. Econ., December 2001, 29(4), pp. 722–748. Bilkent University, Bilkent 06533, Ankara, Turkey; and Department of Economics and Finance, Birkbeck College, University of London, 7-15 Gresse Street, London W1T 1LL, United Kingdom. © 2001 Elsevier ScienceJournal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D73, D78, K41, K42.     

An Economic Definition of the Middle Class

The concept of a middle class is prevalent in both common parlance and the social sciences; concern is frequently expressed that the middle class is shrinking, and politicians often position themselves as champions of the middle class. Yet the phrase “middle class” is extremely ambiguous; no consensus exists on either the upper bound or the lower bound separating the middle class from other classes. The present paper employs the government’s official poverty line as the demarcation between the poor and the middle class, and develops an equivalent distinction to separate the middle class from the wealthy. Based on the new definition, the paper provides some rough empirical estimates of the size of the American middle class over the 1989–2004 period.

Efficiency Wages and Work Incentives in Urban and Rural China

This paper examines incentive-wage effects for production and for managerial/technical workers in both urban and rural Chinese nonagricultural enterprises. We report strong evidence of productivity-enhancing wage behavior among enterprises in all ownership categories. There is also evidence that firms paying higher efficiency wages experience less shirking among their employees. We find that the profit-maximizing potential of incentive-wage setting is not fully exploited, although there is weak evidence that joint ventures come closer to profit-maximizing behavior at this margin of wage/employment behavior than do collectives or state-owned enterprises. J. Comp. Econ., December 2001, 29(4), pp. 645–662. The Ohio State University, 1945 North High St., Columbus, OH 43210 and University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822. © 2001 Elsevier ScienceJournal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: P23, J31, O15.     

Tests of Financial Intermediation and Banking Reform in China

We develop tests of financial intermediation by national banking systems based on the expectation that, in commercial systems, financial intermediation should not be overly influenced by policy variables; should be greater in richer, faster growing industrial areas; and should direct funds to the best projects regardless of where deposits originate. Using Chinese provincial data from 1991 to 1997, we test whether financial reforms in the mid-1990s increased efficient intermediation by different financial institutions. We find that the importance of policy lending by state banks did not fall during the recent period and that lending by financial institutions did not respond to economic fundamentals. J. Comp. Econ., December 2001, 29(4), pp. 608–644. University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109; and Department of Government, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire 03755. © 2001 Elsevier ScienceJournal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G21, O16, O53, P34.     

Privatization Methods and Productivity Effects in Romanian Industrial Enterprises

Comprehensive panel data on privatization transactions and labor productivity in Romanian industrial corporations are used to describe the postprivatization ownership structure and to estimate the effect of Romania's diverse privatization policies on firm performance. The econometric results show consistently positive, highly significant effects of private ownership on labor productivity growth; the point estimates imply an increased 1.0 to 1.7% growth for a 10% rise in private shareholding. The strongest estimated impacts are associated with sales to outside blockholders; insider transfers and mass privatization are estimated to have significantly smaller, although still positive, effects on firm performance. J. Comp. Econ., December 2002, 30(4), pp. 657–682. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, Central European University; and Budapest University of Economic Sciences, Central European University. © 2002 Association for Comparative Economic Studies. Published by Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G32, G34, L32, L33, P20, P31.     

A Multitask Theory of State Enterprise Reform

During transition, maintaining employment and providing a social safety net to the unemployed are important to social stability, which in turn is crucial for the productivity of the whole economy. Because independent institutions for social safety are lacking and firms with strong profit incentives have little incentive to promote social stability due to its public good nature, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are needed to continue their role in providing social welfare. Charged with the multitasks of efficient production as well as social welfare provision, SOEs continue to be given low profit incentives, and consequently their financial performance continues to be poor.J. Comp. Econom., December 2000, 28(4), pp. 716–738. The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, and WDI; Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, CEPR, and WDI; The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455, CEPR, and WDI.     

Does a Switch of Budget Regimes Affect Investment and Managerial Discretion of State-Owned Enterprises? Evidence from Italian Firms

We investigate the investment decisions of Italian state-owned enterprises (SOEs) across budget constraint regimes and carry out a natural experiment that exploits a regime switch in 1987. Drawing on the theory of capital market imperfections, we apply an empirical framework for investment analysis to a panel of manufacturing SOEs in competitive industries. We identify parallels between SOEs and widely held, quoted companies afflicted by agency problems, managerial discretion, and overinvestment. We argue that, in the case of SOEs, the soft budget regime increases managerial discretion, facilitates collusion with vote-seeking politicians, and results in wasteful investment. Consistent with our predictions, we find that the regime switch disciplines SOE's investment behavior. Following a hardening of the budget constraint, managers lose discretion to indulge in collusion and overinvestment. J. Comp. Econ., June 2002 30(4), pp. 787–811. London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom; and CERIS–CNR, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth, National Research Council, Via Avogadro, 8, 10121 Turin, Italy. © 2002 Association for Comparative Economic Studies. Published by Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E32, G31, G32, L32, M40.     

Will the Future Be Better Tomorrow? The Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Revisited

The favored approach in the literature on the growth prospects for transition economies is based on specifications from Barro (1991) and Levine and Renelt (1992). This paper examines this literature critically by identifying and testing for the underlying assumptions. Our main finding is that this approach performs poorly in the transition context. Our results indicate that, almost a decade after the transition began, the former centrally planned economies are still structurally different from market economies at similar levels of per capita income. The legacies of central planning are more resilient than previously thought. J. Comp. Econ., December 2001, 29(4), pp. 663–676. University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne, and Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, United Kingdom; and The William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan. © 2001 Elsevier ScienceJournal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E23, O40, P20, P52.     

China's new agricultural-policy program: Major economic consequences, 1979–1983

While the bulk of the farm surplus is still compulsorily siphoned off to support the Stalinist strategy of maximizing growth of heavy industry, the new policy attempts to ease the agricultural constraints by drastically raising procurement prices, reparcelizing farmland to the households, and promoting rural diversification to help accommodate both redundant labor and increased local demands for consumables. The new emphasis on maximization of short-run investments makes it difficult to cope with natural disasters and to undertake large-scale irrigation projects. Hence bureaucratic correctives appear to remain indispensable, hopefully without impairing peasants' incentives. J. Comp. Econ., Dec. 1984, 8(4), pp. 353–375. Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong; School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, London WC1E 7HP.     

Simultaneous ascending auctions with complementarities and known budget constraints

We study simultaneous ascending auctions of two identical objects when bidders are financially constrained and their valuations exhibit complementarities. We assume the budget constraints are known but the values for individual objects are private information, and characterize noncollusive equilibria. Equilibrium behavior is affected by the exposure problem. Bidders with higher budgets are more reluctant to bid, because opponents with lower budgets may end up pursuing a single object, thus preventing the realization of complementarities. Therefore poor bidders may win both objects when they do not have the highest valuation. We gratefully acknowledge comments by Marco Battaglini, Benny Moldovanu and participants at seminars held at Montreal, Yale, Texas A&M, Washington St. Louis and at the Workshop on Mechanism Design with Budget Constraints held at SUNY - Stony Brook. Sandro Brusco acknowledges financial support from the Ministerio de Educacion y Ciencias D.G.E.S., proyecto SEC2001-0445.     

Wage inequality and between-firm wage dispersion in the 1990s: A comparison of rural and urban enterprises in China

Using a worker–firm matched sample, this paper compares the changes of wage structures of urban and rural enterprises following public sector restructuring in China's manufacturing sector. While the wage responses of rural firms with respect to firm characteristics are found to have declined steadily, compensation of urban workers has become increasingly linked to their firms' ability to pay. Our analysis reveals that industrial restructuring has weakened the influence of institutional factors, such as market power, soft budget constraints, and insider influence, on the wage determination of rural firms but it has enhanced their impact on urban firms. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 664–687.     

The economic effects of restrictions on government budget deficits: imperfect private credit markets

Summary. The present paper is an extension of Ghiglino and Shell [7] to the case of imperfect consumer credit markets. We show that with constraints on individual credit and only anonymous (i.e., non-personalized) lump-sum taxes, strong (or “global”) irrelevance of government budget deficits is not possible, and weak (or “local”) irrelevance can hold only in very special situations. This is in sharp contrast to the result for perfect credit markets. With credit constraints and anonymous consumption taxes, weak irrelevance holds if the number of tax instruments is sufficiently large and at least one consumer's credit constraint is not binding. This is an extension of the result for perfect credit markets. Received: August 28, 2001; revised version: March 25, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" We thank Todd Keister, Bruce Smith, and two referees for helpful comments. Correspondence to: C. Ghiglino     

Economic Consequences of Political Approval Management in Comparative Perspective

We develop a dynamic, stochastic, computable general equilibrium model of political approval management and fiscal policy in order to analyze how political approval management affects United States' Presidential and United Kingdom's parliamentary business cycles. We find that governments in both systems respond to declining political approval by pursuing suboptimal fiscal policies that stimulate household consumption expenditures. Relative to a baseline optimal policy, we estimate that politically motivated fiscal policy reduces aggregate output in the United Kingdom and United States by 0.35 and 0.20%, respectively. Moreover, we find that most of the difference in output costs can be explained by differences between the American and British polities. J. Comp. Econ., December 2001, 29(4), pp. 692–721. University of Arizona, 401 McClelland Hall, Tucson, Arizona 85721; Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota, 1414 Social Sciences Building, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455. © 2001 Elsevier ScienceJournal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: P52, N31, E32.     

Ideological Divide within the Cabinet and Public Spending

A budget, i.e., spending by category, is prepared by the cabinet of (three key) ministers. The finance minister wants to minimize total spending, while the rest have single‐peaked preferences over budgets and each views his own spending as relatively more important. The goal is to understand effects of polarization in spending priorities,—or divergence of the ideal points,—on the budget under two typical budgeting procedures. If the procedure is “fragmented,” i.e., the finance minister just passively compiles spending requests, then the divergence of the ideal budgets increases total spending. If the procedure is more centralized, i.e., challenging the initial proposal of the finance minister is costly, and it also requires support of another minister, then polarization may lead to a tighter budget, as it enlarges the set of the unchallenged proposals, provided the ideals of the spending ministers are sufficiently far apart.     

The Politics of Co-optation

Our model consists of two groups. Group 1 holds political power and Group 2 threatens this power. Group 1 decreases the probability of its upheaval by co-opting some agents from Group 2 into a more benign third group. Improvements in the upheaval technology lead to fewer but better co-optation offers. Increasing the size and/or the degree of fragmentation of Group 2 has the opposite effect. If the co-opted group also threatens Group 1, co-optation transfers are reduced. Our model provides a new explanation of why growth is a politically stabilizing force. The theory suggests that, in post-Communist privatizations, unstable governments will give large benefits to a small number of beneficiaries while stable governments will give small benefits to a large group. J. Comp. Econ., December 2001, 29(4), pp. 591–607. Universita' di Modena e Reggio Emilia, I-41100 Modena, Italy; and Centre for Economic Policy Research; and Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, Surrey TW20 OEX, United Kingdom; and Centre for Economic Policy Research. © 2001 Elsevier ScienceJournal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D74, P26, D3.     

Legislative output and the Constitutional Court in Italy

This paper considers the impact of the Constitutional Court on legislative output in Italy. Following Tsebelis’ ((2002) Veto Players: Foundations of Institutional Analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press) veto players model and the stylised facts as regards the Italian Constitutional Court’s activity, this paper presents a multi-stage game in the spirit of Gely and Spiller ((1990). A rational choice theory of supreme court statutory decisions with applications to the state farm and grove city cases. Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization 6, 263–300). In the first stage, the legislative veto players, namely the parties in government, choose whether to change or not the policy status quo by enacting new legislation. In the second stage, the Court makes a constitutional interpretation: it decides whether to alter or not the outcome of the first stage through a sentence of constitutional illegitimacy. The Court has both the power of annulling laws and a limited power of creating new legally binding norms. Moreover, in the third stage, a constitutional law voted by a parliamentary qualified majority can overturn the Court’s decisions. The model predicts that the presence of the Court lowers legislative policy change and tests this prediction with 1956–2001 annual time series data for Italy.

An experiment on auctions with endogenous budget constraints

We perform laboratory experiments comparing auctions with endogenous budget constraints. A principal imposes a budget limit on a bidder (an agent) in response to a principal-agent problem. In contrast to the existing literature where budget constraints are exogenous, this theory predicts that tighter constraints will be imposed in first-price auctions than in second-price auctions, tending to offset any advantages attributable to the lower bidding strategy of the first-price auction. Our experimental findings support this theory: principals are found to set significantly lower budgets in first-price auctions. The result holds robustly, whether the principal chooses a budget for human bidders or computerized bidders. We further show that the empirical revenue difference between first- and second-price formats persists with and without budget constraints.     

INVESTMENT BEHAVIOUR,CORPORATE CONTROL,AND PRIVATE BENEFITS OF CONTROL: EVIDENCE FROM A SURVEY OF UKRAINIAN FIRMS

We analyse the impact of ownership and corporate control on firms’ investment using the 2001 survey of Yacoub et al. on Ukrainian firms. The model explains investment by output, financial and soft budget constraints, and corporate control (and ownership) categories potentially enjoying private benefits of control. We find that the corporate control model fits better than the ownership model, a negative relationship between state and employee control and firms’ investment, and evidence for the presence of soft budget constraints. A negative relationship between firms’ investment and the relative size of non‐monetary transactions strengthens the conclusion of private benefits of control impacting investment.     

Common Trends and Common Cycles in Per Capita GDP: The Case of the G7 Countries, 1870–2001

In this paper we analyze per capita incomes of the G7 countries using the common cycles test developed by Vahid and Engle (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8:341–360, 1993) and extended by Hecq et al. (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62:511–532, 2000; Econometric Reviews, 21:273–307, 2002) and the common trend test developed by Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12:231–254, 1988). Our main contribution is that we impose the common cycle and common trend restrictions in decomposing the innovations into permanent and transitory components. Our main finding is permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in incomes for the G7 countries over short time horizons, and is in sharp contrast to the bulk of the recent literature. We attribute this to the greater forecasting accuracy achieved, which we later confirm through performing a post sample forecasting exercise, from the variance decomposition analysis.