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1.
Vacant technology forecasting (VTF) is a technology forecasting approach to find technological needs for given industrial field in the future. It is important to know the future trend of developing technology for the R&D planning of a company and a country. In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian model for patent clustering. This is a VTF methodology based on patent data analysis. Our method is composed of Bayesian learning and ensemble method to construct the VTF model. To illustrate the practical way of the proposed methodology, we perform a case study of given technology domain using retrieved patent documents from patent databases in the world.  相似文献   

2.
Patent technology morphological analysis utilises the advantages of both patent information analysis and morphological analysis to provide more detailed information on current and future patent technology. Current patent technology morphological analysis methods are largely reliant on manual expertise in the construction of morphological boxes with few approaches to the evaluation of future morphological configurations. We developed a patent text mining and informetric-based patent technology morphological analysis technique. We defined the basic parameters of the morphological box as the factors in factor analysis, with a patent keywords matrix, and the clusters in clustering analysis with factor scores. Patent citation, year of patent registration, keyword frequency, and contributing factors were used to evaluate future morphological configurations. We used an empirical study of liquid crystal display wide viewing angle patents to validate our method. The Thomson Reuters Derwent Innovation Index was used to collect patent text datasets. Our study indicates that this method is feasible for the implementation of patent technology morphological analysis. Our method provides advantages in terms of cost and time reductions during morphological box construction and more flexible methods for evaluating morphological configurations. We discuss problems and possible development of our method in the last section.  相似文献   

3.
Three-dimensional (3D) printing enables products to be custom-designed and produced using additive manufacturing processes. This research develops a patent analysis approach to explore biomedical 3D printing technology trends. First, the method searches for related patents. Second, frequently appearing key terms in patents are extracted as a means to identify key concepts of inventions. Third, in order to structure the domain knowledge, the ontology is created by referring to the relevant key terms and literature. The key terms create indexes used to measure similarities for clustering the patents and sub-technologies. Based on the patent context and dynamic patent concept analysis maps, the evolutionary trends of technology development are depicted. Biomedical 3D printing R&D projects are used as case examples to compare against co-occurring patent evolutions. The proposed patent concept analysis is generalisable for critical decision support of R&D planning and evaluation in any market sector.  相似文献   

4.
The increasing syntheses and interactions between various technologies increase the usefulness of cross impact analysis (CIA) as a method for forecasting and analyzing them. Conventional CIA depends on an expert's qualitative judgment or intuition and thus it is difficult to evaluate quantitatively the impact of one technology on another. In this study, we employ patent analysis in CIA to examine such impacts between technologies based on multiple patent classifications. Patent information is used for facilitating quantitative and systematic approach in CIA. The distinctive feature and main contribution of the proposed approach is the overcoming of the limitations of conventional CIA, by employing conditional probabilities based on the patent information. The classification of patents, particularly the multiple classifications, is used to evaluate the relationships between technologies. As an illustration, a patent-based CIA with information and communication technologies (ICTs) was conducted. Firstly, the patent-based cross impact among ICTs was calculated. Secondly, the technology pairs were classified based on the cross impact score between ICTs. Thirdly, a cross impact network was constructed to identify the complex relation among ICTs. Finally, the changes in cross impact scores between technologies over time were analyzed. The results of this research are expected to help practitioners to forecast future trends and to develop better R&D strategies.  相似文献   

5.
ABSTRACT

Industry convergence has been the subject of many prior studies, yet most have focused on certain domains based on ex post evaluation. This study presents a systematic approach to anticipating technology-driven industry convergence using large-scale patent analysis covering all technology fields. Our approach includes patent co-classification analysis with the concordance between patent classes and industrial sectors to measure technological relations between industries; centrality and brokerage analysis to identify the specific roles of technology fields in industry convergence; and finally link prediction analysis to anticipate technology-driven industry convergence. A case study with the patents issued by the United States Patent and Trademark Office from 1976 to 2014 confirms that our approach provides a holistic and forward-looking perspective on technology-driven industry convergence.  相似文献   

6.
高校是国家创新体系的重要组成部分,存有丰富的专利资源,专利运营对促进高校科技成果转化为实际生产力具有重要意义。专利转让是专利运营的一种重要方式,探讨高校专利转让是否存在地区差异,分析地方政府及高校促进专利转让的相关政策及制度,对促进我国高校专利转化、“盘活”高校现有专利资源具有重要意义。基于IncoPat平台检索中国内地31省市高校发明专利转让数据,发现不同地区间高校发明专利转让数量存在差异;运用聚类分析法将中国内地31省市划分为4个类别,并对前3类地区技术优势进行分析,探讨发明专利转让效果显著省市及高校出台的相关政策。结果发现,江苏在不同技术领域均具有明显优势且高校发明专利转让总量位居全国第一,清华大学与上海交通大学发明专利转让数量分别位居全国第一、第二;各级地方政府及相关部门虽然出台政策对高校专利转让进行宏观指导,但高校需要结合自身实际情况制定更加具体、系统化的政策促进高校专利转让。  相似文献   

7.
定性定量结合的分析方法——共词分析法   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
张勤  徐绪松 《技术经济》2010,29(6):20-24
复杂科学管理的方法论是定性定量结合的方法论。作为定性与定量分析相结合的研究方法,共词分析法是复杂科学管理倡导的重要方法之一。本文首先阐述了共词分析法的基本原理、发展历程和主要运用领域,总结了运用共词分析法的4个关键操作步骤。在此基础上,以国外的知识管理研究为例,运用共词分析法发现了国外知识管理研究的9类知识结构、3个理论基础和两个大研究纬度,揭示了知识管理研究中存在的二元对立范式。最后,指出了在复杂科学管理理念下共词分析法的发展前景。  相似文献   

8.
Patent information provides an objective and public source to understand core technologies of companies. In this paper, a method is proposed for identifying core technology capabilities for a company in the semiconductor industry. The method is built on the patent similarity and K-means clustering algorithm. The indirect relations among the patents in the complex industry are considered in the method. In addition, the age of the patent is taken into account to avoid identifying aged core patents. The method is demonstrated by exploring the core technology capabilities that support the platform technology portfolio of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).  相似文献   

9.
In light of the creation of the EU Energy Poverty Observatory (EPOV) in January 2018 and the increase in debates on how fuel poverty is measured, we propose a critical analysis of fuel poverty indicators and demonstrate that choosing a given indicator is central to the identification of the fuel-poorpopulation.

First, we conducted an inter-indicator analysis to show how profiles of fuel-poor households vary depending on the indicator selected. We designed a multidimensional approach based on a multiple correspondence analysis and a hierarchical and partitioning clustering analysis to study characteristics of fuel-poor households. We highlight the difficulty of identifying a fuel-poor ‘typical profile’ and show that the composition of the population depends on the choice of the indicator.

Second, we applied an intra-indicator analysis using two objective expenditure-based indicators with thresholds. In particular, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on a logit model including variables describing household and dwelling characteristics. We show that the profiles of fuel-poor households as well as the drivers of fuel poverty vary considerably with the chosen threshold level.Given these findings, we stress the need to review how we currently rely on conventional fuel poverty indicators to identify target groups and give some recommendations.  相似文献   

10.
In this study, we analyse patent data for technology analysis (TA) because patents are rich in information on developed technology. The results of TA can be used to perform more efficient research and development (R&D) planning. Most companies are trying to develop new and innovative technologies to improve their competitive positions. Research involving TA has been introduced in a variety of fields. Most of the published research analysed original variables related to a target technology. However, it is necessary to analyse the latent variables as well as the original variables included in the technology to achieve a better TA model. Therefore, we propose a factor analysis and a structural equation model for patent analysis. In addition, we use Apple’s patents to determine the target technology. In our case study, we analyse Apple’s technologies by latent variables. Our case study shows how the proposed model is applied to Apple’s R&D planning.  相似文献   

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