构建“城市即旅游”新格局

实施“旅游即城市”新战略，构建“城市即旅游”的新格局，其实质就是要把旅游发展全方位地融入无锡整个城市发展，打造“山水名城”的大背景中来规划；就是要把旅游业作为城市发展新的内在动力和支柱产业来打造；就是要把整个城市作为最大的景区、最好的旅游产品、最美的旅游目的地来建设和经营；就是要提升城市的旅游功能和旅游特色，从而使城市不再是中外游客的过境地，而是中外游客的停留地；不再是中外游客的集散地，而是中外游客的目的地。     

旅游景区形象对游客满意与游客忠诚的影响研究

旅游景区形象研究正成为旅游景区营销领域的热门话题之一。本研究提出了旅游景区形象五维度测量模型,并建立了旅游景区形象对游客满意与游客忠诚的影响机制模型。数据研究表明：⑴笔者开发的旅游景区形象量表具有良好的信度、组合信度、收敛效度、整体拟合度;⑵旅游景区形象各维度对游客满意与游客忠诚存在不同的影响效应。本研究对于开展旅游景区形象管理具有重要启示。     

自然旅游景区关于游客忠诚度培养的深层探讨

随着市场竞争的日益加剧 ,越来越多的企业通过顾客忠诚度的培养提升企业竞争力。然而在旅游景区行业 ,特别是以自然观光为主的旅游景区行业 ,回头客少的天然局限性让很多景区企业认为 ,游客不存在普遍忠诚。本文针对自然旅游景区游客忠诚度问题作了深入剖析 ,并针对如何提升忠诚度提出了解决方法。     

传统赶集文化在旅游产业中的可塑性

在国家经济稳步发展的今天，国民市场经济也得到大幅度的提升，人们对于物质与精神生活环境的需求量加大，从而造就了旅游产业的蓬勃发展。但我国大多数风景区属于走马观花式的观光旅游点和享受型度假旅游点。这些大型旅游点的观光期比较受限于时间，大多数人们会选择时间充裕的节假日出游。由于游客在同时段集中到各大景区旅游，会导致大部分景区呈现出爆满、“观人”的场面，并没有起到很好的休闲、放松的作用。所以部分游客放弃节假日“涌入人群”的计划转而奔向相对人群稀少、空气清新的乡镇旅游。而在国内现阶段的乡镇旅游中，较为热门的是古镇观光游、名人故居游、乡间采摘瓜果游、农家娱乐游、赏花游等。它也集中体现了人们的三种需求：生活需求、经济需求、文化需求。所以随着旅游业的蓬勃发展，更需要一个能够全面地、系统地展示活动空间，让传统的本土文化活跃起来，观的就是民俗民风，地方文化、品的就是绿色食品，地方特色。拓展旅游项目不仅对地区经济发展、地区文化宣传起到了支撑作用，还推动了旅游产业链的发展。     

古镇旅游解说系统研究--以李庄古镇为例

李庄是历史悠久、文化多元的川南古镇,尤以抗战文化、建筑文化、民俗文化等吸引着各方游客。景区在游客接待过程中,如何通过优秀的旅游解说系统,向旅游者提供景区的信息和导向服务,特别是将古镇的历史文化内涵传递给游客,塑造古镇良好的旅游形象是景区的重要功能。通过对李庄古镇旅游解说系统的实证研究,分析其旅游解说系统现状,提出了着重加强自导式解说系统和交通导引系统的建设、提供游憩性学习体验等优化建议。     

论旅游景区游客中心的功能完善

国内各旅游景区纷纷建立游客中心,把它作为景区管理、对外形象展示的主要窗口,游客中心已经日渐发展成为旅游景区的一项基础旅游设施。文章主要讨论了目前我国旅游景区游客中心存在的主要问题,探讨了完善旅游景区游客中心功能的各项措施。     

景区游客体验管理运行机制初探

随着人们自由支配时间及旅游供给的增加,人们的旅游方式也发生了改变,旅游正从服务经济向体验经济转变,体验旅游将可能逐渐取代观光旅游成为未来旅游发展的趋势。正是在这种趋势下,景区成为体验旅游选择的主要目的地之一。游客体验质量的高低与景区的游客体验管理水平密切相关。影响景区游客体验管理质量的因素主要体现在景区游客与景区的互动缺失、景区员工和游客的互动缺失和景区员工与景区的互动缺失三个方面。从景区游客体验管理运行机制的系统要素、景区游客体验管理运行机制设计和管理制度创新三个方面构建景区游客体验管理运行机制,既可以实现景区游客、景区和景区员工三者的有效互动,同时也有利于提升景区游客体验管理水平。     

“三转变”打造美丽武夷山

阳春四月,武夷山依然以其摄人心魄的秀美、灵动和中国画似的大自然美深深吸引着游客。然而,人们尚且不知,在这山水脚下,武夷山市正发生着历史性变化:以"打造国际旅游度假城市"为目标,全力实施"三大转变",即从自然观光旅游向休闲度假旅游转变,从旅游景区向旅游城市转变,从以旅游业     

浅谈公厕文化在旅游业的经济和社会效应

受传统文化的影响,我国历史上曾认为公开谈论厕所是不礼貌的,因此厕所这个主题在很大程度上被忽视。旅游景区的公厕是每位游客都必须光顾的场所,同旅游景区的风景一样重要。游客的数量关系着景区经济收入,景区公厕卫生状况又直接影响人们的游玩心情,更决定了游客能否再次光临,因此公厕文化与景区的经济和社会效益密不可分。文章分析了目前公厕在旅游景区方面存在的问题,以及应从公厕的合理规划、环保设计、精心管理等多方面改进,进而提升景区公厕在景区经济和社会效应中的地位和作用。     

黄金周假日旅游合理性及可持续发展初探

我国“黄金周”假日旅游产生自1999年。当时为了刺激消费、拉动内需,国务院通过修订《全国年节及纪念日放假办法》,以“上移下借”方式形成春节、五一和国庆三个黄金长假。1999年国庆期间,全国出游人数达到2800万人,全国旅游总收入141亿元人民币,国内旅游呈现出前所未有的繁荣。除却旅游,各大消费市场都呈现出火爆现象。1999年至今的7年来,黄金周为国家带来了3000多亿元的旅游收入。但是,这种集中爆发式的旅游消费,带来资源配置的不合理,给旅游者也给交通部门和旅游目的地带来不便。虽然,如今人们的假日消费行为已然趋于理性化、成熟化和合…     

灰色预测在产品价格预测中的应用

人类社会进入21世纪后，企业间面临更加激烈的市场竞争，价格则是这场竞争中决定企业竞争成败及目标能否实现的重要因素，企业要在竞争中立于不败之地，必须及时掌握市场产品价格动态，并对市场价格的变化趋势做出科学的预测，本借助灰色预测理论，阐述了市场产品价格预测的方法。     

Forecasting the barbados money supply

The purpose of this paper is to provide an adequate forecasting method for the money supply in the Barbadian economy. This would assist the Central Bank in making decisions on monetary intervention. The performance of ARIMA and vector autoregressive forecasting models are investigated along with combinations of these models. The results of this study suggest that there are reasonable options available for obtaining reliable forecasts of the Barbados money supply. Our findings indicate that seasonal factors and interest rate effects should be comprehended within the forecasting model. We accomplished this through a combination forecasting procedure in which seasonal effects are captured by an ARIMA model and interest rates are introduced through a vector autoregressive forecasting model as exogenous variables.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Technological Forecasting at the Stock Market

Under the assumption that competition (Darwinian in nature) reigns in the stock market, we analyze the behavior of company stocks as if they were species competing for investors' resources. The approach requires the study of dollar values and share volumes, daily exchanged in the stock market, via logistic growth functions. These two variables, in contrast to prices, obey the law of natural growth in competition, which like every natural law, is endowed with predictability. A number of unexpected insights about the stock market emerge. The forecasts indicate that whereas there is no looming crash in the near future, no significant growth should be expected either. The DJIA is to hover around 9500 depicting large erratic excursions above and below this level for a few years. The use of Volterra-Lotka equations demonstrates that the 1987 crash altered the stock-bond interaction from a symbiotic to a predator-prey relationship with stocks acting as predators. This research work has lead to the publication of the book An S-Shaped Trail to Wall Street by T. Modis, (Growth Dynamics, Geneva, 1999).     

基于最优组合预测模型的港口集装箱吞吐量预测

根据港口集装箱吞吐量非线性增长等特点,建立了三次指数平滑预测模型、灰色系统预测模型及BP神经网络预测模型等单项预测模型。鉴于单项预测模型的局限性,提出了以测试数据的预测误差绝对值加权和最小为最优化准则的最优组合预测模型,采用线性规划的方法确定最优组合的权系数。最后,给出一个实例进行应用和分析。     

Forecasting welding technology

The case for multinational is described. The experience of the CMEA countries in the field is original from the point of view of (a) a general procedure of the forecasters' interaction developed in the permanent system in the followup of trends and the forecasting of welding science and technology; (b) complex use of different kinds of information (expert estimation, patents, publications, etc.); (c) the relation to decision-making in international technological policy.     

Forecasting broadband provision

The provision of broadband telecommunication services in the United States is spatially heterogeneous. Previous studies find that urban locales typically have a larger selection of access platforms and providers when compared to rural or remote areas. Therefore, the ability to forecast broadband provision is important to understanding regional trends in telecommunications competition and availability. This paper provides a comparative analysis of cross-sectional and spatial econometric forecasts of broadband provision, with results suggesting that the integration of spatially referenced demand-side variables significantly improve the accuracy of short and mid-range forecasts.