供水企业投资风险分析与控制

针对供水企业投资存在着实际销售水量、预期水价实现程度以及坏账损失程度的不确定性,提出对投资风险因素的预测和选择合理的风险处理手段,供水企业投资风险的转移,实施风险共担和风险内部化策略等。把供水企业投资的风险降低到最低程度,以保证项目投资收益的最大化。即销售水量盈亏平衡计算。     

Farm bankruptcy risk as a link between direct payments and agricultural investment

The European Union is increasingly relying on direct paymentsto support farm incomes. Recent research has shown that a directpayment may increase production and investment by risk-aversefarmers via a link between wealth, risk aversion and decisionmaking. This paper shows that, even in the absence of risk aversion,a direct payment may stimulate farm investment. With lendersusing a standard insolvency rule for determining bankruptcy,the direct payment raises the expected value of marginal investmentbecause it reduces the risk of bankruptcy over the farmer'soperating time horizon. The investment response to the directpayment is larger for a farmer with an intermediate versus lowor high level of equity, and for a farmer with a long versusshort-time horizon.     

渔业经济持续发展的财政投入机制探讨

本文在对渔业经济可持续发展系统的内在构成、环境资本、资源资本、人力资本、社会资本、货币资本等进行阐述的基础上,指出与渔业经济可持续发展的内在构成相对应的财政投入机制可以细分为:生态补偿机制、风险分担机制、利益诱导机制、约束协调机制和公共服务机制。     

Integrated assessment of public investment in land-use change to protect environmental assets in Australia

A framework for comprehensive integrated assessment of environmental projects is developed and applied in partnership with a regional environmental body. The framework combines theory with practice, bringing a pragmatic and efficient approach to the rigorous assessment of projects for a large number of environmental assets in the north central region of the state of Victoria, Australia. The approach is codified as the Investment Framework for Environmental Resources (INFFER). The analysis assisted the environmental body to make strong business cases for a number of environmental projects, resulting in funding for those projects. Key features of the study include extensive participation of decision makers and stakeholders, integration of a comprehensive set of information about projects, explicit assessment of uncertainties and information gaps, and analysis of the most appropriate policy mechanism for each project. The process of applying the framework involved four steps: identification of around 300 important environmental assets in the region, filtering the list of assets to remove those that are less likely to provide opportunities for cost-effective public investment, development and detailed assessment of projects for a subset of assets, and negotiation of funding for projects. Implications for land-use policy include that environmental projects vary widely in their cost-effectiveness, requiring careful targeting of funds if environmental benefits are to be maximised. Many existing environmental programs use simplistic analyses to support decision making, resulting in missed opportunities for substantially greater environmental benefits. Promoting adoption of improved analytical methods is very challenging, requiring changes in mind-set and culture in environmental organisations. Widespread adoption is unlikely unless funders create incentives by rewarding those project proponents who undertake rigorous and comprehensive project assessments that focus on achievement of environmental outcomes.     

渔业企业研发人员人力资本投资风险模糊综合评价

在文献分析和专家头脑风暴的基础上,构建了渔业企业研发人员人力资本投资风险评价指标体系,包括5个一级指标和15个二级指标。运用层次分析法对各指标的权重进行赋值,创建了渔业企业研发人员人力资本投资风险模糊综合评价模型,幵以山东某渔业企业研发人员人力资本投资风险为例进行了实证分析。实证研究的结果表明,渔业企业研发人员人力资本投资风险模糊综合评价模型具有较好的操作性和准确性,可以供其他渔业企业为针对研发人员的人力资本投资决策提供依据。     

扎龙自然保护区景观格局动态变化及其生态风险研究

区域生态风险研究可以为保护区域景观生态系统健康,实现区域资源的合理和可持续利用提供重要科学依据.本文以扎龙自然保护区为研究区,利用遥感手段提取研究区1995年和2010年的景观类型信息,定量分析了不同时期研究区景观格局特征和动态演变规律.根据研究区景观格局变化特点构建研究区景观生态风险指数,对研究区景现生态风险变化特征及演变规律进行分析.研究表明:1995～2010年研究区景观总体格局和各景观类型格局均变化显著;景观生态风险随时间变化而升高,沼泽地、水域和耕地这三类主要景观的生态风险变化是研究区生态风险变化的主导因素.研究区景观生态风险分布大体符合由中心向四周、由高风险向低风险的环形扩散特征.     

后危机时代技术贸易壁垒的新趋势及对策研究

金融危机后,新技术贸易壁垒以其隐蔽性强、透明度低及合法性等特点,越来越受到发达国家的青睐.为了维护我国对外贸易的利益,本文从金融危机后技术贸易壁垒的新趋势、对我国贸易的负面影响及我国的应对策略等方面出发,对新技术贸易壁垒进行研究.     

全球气候变化对海洋生物多样性影响的预测

本文是William W.L.Cheung等发表于2009年出版的<鱼类与渔业>1-17页"全球气候变化对海洋生物多样性影响的预测"一文的译文.译文作者阐述了通过气候变化可以对海洋生物多样性产生影响,改变鱼类品种.但是,气候变化对海洋生物多样性影响的研究目前在全球范围还寥寥无几.本文以1066个生物鱼类和无脊椎动物的分布范围为例,应用最新的生物气候分室模型,预测了截至2050年伞球气候变化对海洋生物多样性的影响.预测表明,在近极地、热带半封闭海域,气候变化可能导致大量土著晶种消失.同时,外来品种侵入,尤其在南、北极海域侵入程度更大.这导致现有生物多样体中60%的品种发生戏剧性变化,这将意味着生态系统被潜在破坏而导致生态失调.这些预测町以成为未来分析研究的假设.     

Influence of strategies and heuristics on farmers' response to change under uncertainty

Hierarchical Decision Models of woolproducers' decisions provide unique insights into the impact of major price changes. Producers' lagged response in some contexts appear to be due to the ambiguous decision environment they face, their strategic goals and responses to that environment apart from lags caused by factors such as attitude to risk, expectations adjustment, adjustment costs and learning costs. Much of the response to major price changes comes from strategic decisions to change enterprises rather than marginal changes to existing enterprises. In ambiguous environments, methods may need to be found that incorporate simplifying behavioural rules and strategies.     

红枫湖沿岸土地利用变化与生态风险评估

本文以喀斯特地区典型高原湖泊-红枫湖为研究对象,依据景观生态学及生态风险评价等相关理论,综合运用“3S”技术、野外调查验证和生态风险评价及格局优化等技术手段,从土地利用变化演变及景观尺度上就红枫湖湖岸周围的生态风险进行探讨,定量分析湖岸周围格局演变及生态风险变化特征,针对性地提出湖岸周围格局优化的调控措施。本文对丰富喀斯特地区高原湖区景观生态格局及风险评价的研究内容、指导红枫湖流域及类似高原湖泊流域的生态环境保护及恢复、促进区域可持续发展具有一定的理论价值和实践意义。     

Introducing socioeconomic characteristics into production analysis under risk

A theoretical framework is developed to study the effects of socioeconomic factors on farmers' risk attitudes and production decisions. No maintained assumptions about the individual's utility are required. A key element in this framework is the categorization of socioeconomic factors by their effect on the farmer's risk attitudes. A simple methodology for this categorization, based on the equivalence between the Arrow–Pratt measure of risk aversion and the probability of winning demanded, is proposed. The latter is illustrated with data collected in a survey of 180 Israeli farmers from 20 villages.     

Managerial efficiency under risk for broiler producers in Saudi Arabia

Managerial efficiency for broiler producers m Saudi Arabia is generally difficult lo achieve. High investment costs coupled with relatively high average production costs and the consequent incompetent market prices, have resulted in projects either working at less than full capacity or being shut down completely. The aim here is to determine the most efficient production alternatives (actions) available to managers under business risk considerations. The ordinary stochastic dominance approach was used to solicit the most efficient production alternatives for broilet producing projects of all sizes in the Central Region of Saudi Arabia. For small-and medium-sized projects, the efficient production alternatives concentrated on marketing risk. For large projects, the efficient actions concentrated on both marketing and production risks. For the three sizes of projects, the two production alternatives that proved to be the most efficient, were the one that contains creating morc marketing strategies and the one that adopts good veterinary care systems. On the other hand, the production alternative that deals with selecting good breeds of chicks appeared to be most efficient for small and large projects only.     

The Edmonton-Calgary corridor: Simulating future land cover change under potential government intervention

The region connecting Edmonton and Calgary, the two largest cities in Alberta, contains rich agricultural land and is one of the most rapidly changing areas in the province. There is little legislation to restrict urban sprawl or adequately protect agricultural land or native grasslands, and there has been little research to predict future alteration. The main study objectives are, therefore, to assess historical changes in the Edmonton-Calgary corridor from 1984 to 2013 and simulate the future landscape change to 2022 under potential government intervention scenarios. Satellite imagery from Landsat, used in conjunction with biogeophysical variables, was used to create a history of cover in the Edmonton-Calgary area. This history of the environment can be used as a baseline to project changes into the future. Testing different legislative scenarios under two major branches of modifying rates of change or locations of change can be used to identify effective policies for limiting damage to the environment while still allowing for urban growth. Five scenarios were created for this purpose: (1) business as usual, (2) increased rate of urban expansion, (3) no urban expansion, (4) implementation of greenbelts around urban areas, (5) protection of the best agricultural land. This study finds that over the past 30 years, urban area has nearly doubled in size, targeting predominately farmland, especially due to an increase in rural subdivisions. Each scenario impacts growth differently, however, greenbelts and the no expansion model decease growth the most, while the agricultural protection is comparable to the business as usual scenario.     

Potential of woody biomass production for motivating widespread natural resource management under climate change

In this study we assessed the potential of woody biomass (short-rotation Mallee Eucalypts) for renewable energy generation as an economically viable way of motivating widespread natural resource management under climate change in the 11.9 million ha Lower Murray agricultural region in southern Australia. The spatial distribution of productivity of agricultural crops and pasture, and biomass was modelled. Average annual economic returns were calculated under historical mean (baseline) climate and three climate change scenarios. Economically viable areas of biomass production were identified where the profitability of biomass is greater than the profitability of agriculture under each scenario for three factory gate biomass prices. The benefits of biomass production for dryland salinisation, wind erosion, and carbon emissions reduction through biomass-based renewable energy production were also modelled. Depending on climate scenario, at the median price assessed ($40/tonne) biomass production can generate $51.4–$88 M in annual net economic returns, address 41,226–165,577 ha at high risk of dryland salinisation and 228,000–1.4 million ha at high risk of wind erosion, and mitigate 10.4–12 million tonnes of carbon (CO₂^−e) emissions annually. Economically viable areas for biomass production expanded under climatic warming and drying especially in more marginal agricultural land. Under the baseline, the area at high risk of dryland salinisation was more than double that at high risk of wind erosion. However, under climatic warming and drying the relative importance of these two natural resource management objectives switched with the area at high risk of wind erosion becoming much larger. As biomass production can achieve multiple natural resource management objectives, it may provide a land use policy option that is adaptable to changing priorities and economically resilient given climatic uncertainties. For such a significant and enduring land use change policy it is prudent to assess both the economic and environmental potential under climate change.     

农业现代化的技术需求类型、技术来源及其实践

本文阐述了农业现代化的技术需求特点 ,分析了技术需求类型 ,指出了各类技术来源 ,对于科研工作者、企业家、农户如何选择应用这些技术具有指导作用 ,从而实现农业可持续发展。     

核能与技术经济

全球的电能消耗需求的倍增,天然气和石油、煤等一次性能源价格的上涨,以及温室气体减排压力,为核能的发展提供了难得的机遇.从当前能源结构和现状及其特点,分析发展核能经济的可比性和核能发展的态势及其对我国核能发展的启示.     

Pests and pesticides,risk and risk aversion

Theoretical and applied literature on risk in decision making for agricultural pest control is reviewed. Risk can affect pesticide decision making either because of risk aversion or because of its influence on expected profit. It is concluded that risk does not necessarily lead to increased pesticide use by individual farmers. Uncertainty about some variables, such as pest density and pest mortality, does lead to higher optimal pesticide use under risk aversion. However, uncertainty about other important variables, such as output price and yield, leads to lower optimal levels of pesticide use. Neglect of these variables in most studies has led to the false assumption that pesticides are always risk-reducing inputs. Furthermore, there is evidence that, in general, the pesticide dosage which maximises expected profit is lower under risk than under certainty. Depending on the balance of forces to increase and decrease pesticide use under risk, in many circumstances the net effect of risk on optimal decision making for pest control may be minimal. The effect on risk of information about pest density and other variables (as in integrated pest management programmes) is discussed. Evidence on this issue is mixed. A range of analytical techniques for analysing risk in pest control is reviewed. Throughout the paper, gaps in the existing literature are identified.