人力资本对企业绩效影响的实证研究——基于农业上市公司的数据

以2011-2015年A股26家农业上市公司为样本,对企业绩效和人力资本的关系进行探究。实证研究发现:企业绩效与员工人均培训投资额、员工人均薪酬,人力资本存量、高管平均年龄、技术人员占比均为显著正相关,但企业绩效与企业规模和人力资本流动率无明显相关性。     

集体林权改革后的林农生产投资行为

根据辽宁省农户调查的数据,分析了集体林权改革后林农林业生产投资现状,通过建立计量模型,对影响林农投资行为的主要因素进行实证分析,结果表明:户主受教育程度、生产资金获取的难易程度、农户家庭收入、林地面积等显著影响林农投资行为,提出应拓宽林农投融资渠道、组建专业合作社和规范林业资源流转机制等对策建议。     

Farm Capital Investment and Deviations from the Optimal Path

We identify farms’ optimal investment path in capital assets and compare it with their actual investment to assess the direction and extent of deviation from the optimal investment. A probit model is further used to investigate the determinants of the probability that a farmer over‐ or under‐invests in capital assets. We use a panel dataset of Dutch dairy farms over the period 2003–2013, and find that most farms under‐invest in capital assets during the study period. Although the number of farms that had over‐invested in capital assets is relatively small, these farms account for the biggest share of total investment in capital assets. The probit results show that liquidity, agricultural support payments, age, land tenure and standard output size are important variables explaining the likelihood of over‐and under‐investment.     

Group heterogeneity and the economic effect of farmer organisation participation: Empirical evidence from Taiwan

We explore the effects of different farmer organisations on smallholder farmers' economic performance. The average treatment effect of switching between different farmer organisations is examined. In addition, based on the premise that a higher level of social capital is accumulated through participation in multiple farmer organisations, we also investigate how the economic consequences of farmer organisation membership vary with the intensity of participation. Our conceptual model explicitly includes social capital to provide a micro-foundation and a theoretical justification for the linkage between farmer organisation participation and the economic outcome. This indicates that participating in different types of farmer organisations is beneficial for farm households only when the returns from social capital investment outweigh the time cost of participation. Our empirical results suggest that membership of farmer organisations that are more homogeneous in terms of member specialty and similarity in production and marketing activities results in a significant increase in farm sales revenue and net returns. This result supports the view that technological proximity accentuates knowledge spillovers within the farmer organisations, and thus leads to better economic outcomes. In line with the prediction of the theoretical model, the average treatment effect of participation is found to increase with the number of organisations that farmers belong to. Moreover, results from the quantile regression provide empirical evidence supporting increasing returns to social capital accumulated through participation in several farmer organisations.     

Decision-making Criteria for Purchasing Milk Quota at the Individual Farm Level

Dairy farmers wishing to contemplate purchases of additional quota should first consider what the appropriate time horizon on their investment should be. If the chosen time horizon is one year or less, the problem of estimating how much they can afford to bid for quota can be solved with simple budgeting techniques. On the other hand, if the time horizon is taken as several years, and this would seem rational, then capital budgeting techniques are required. However, in either case, investment in additional quota should be compared with alternative investment opportunities before a final decision is made. Where capital budgeting techniques are used, a modification of the net present value approach permits the farmer to take account of his time preference for money, and allows calculation of the break-even price, or the maximum affordable price to pay for additional quota. This approach necessitates the provision of estimates of the expected net returns from investing in quota for each year of the selected time horizon, as well as provision of estimates of the salvage value of the quota and an appropriate discount rate. The calculation of the expected net returns figures represents the most difficult task for the farmer. If expansion of milk shipments rests upon increasing output of milk per cow, then the short-run production function and marginal cost curve provide the appropriate reference points. The expected net return on investment in quota is then given by the area under the marginal revenue line and above the relevant portion of the marginal cost curve. If, however, all short-run variable input decisions have already been implemented at the optimum level, and expansion of milk shipments depends upon expanding the number of cows, or the “fixed” plant and equipment, or both, then the average total cost curve is the appropriate reference point. The expected net return on investment in quota is then represented by the difference between total net revenue at the new planned level of output and total net revenue at the existing level of output.     

农民发展权综合评价指数模型的构建及实证分析

[目的]中国农民发展权是农民拥有的公平参与促进经济、社会、文化和政治发展过程并公平分享发展成果的基本人权。但由于涉及权利,概念抽象,学者和公众关注度不高,因此,对农民发展权进行分解,并进行指标数据量化并计算结果,是一个不错的、方便民众了解该权利,并对该权利实现结果有一个整体判断的途径。[方法]运用层次分析法构建农民发展权综合评价指数模型,具体有3个步骤:第一,解析农民发展权内容、构造农民发展权指标体系。第二,借助层次分析软件中的群决策工具完成农民发展权各个中间层指标的赋权。第三,运用该模型,对中国农民发展权进行测度。[结果]从指标值和发展权计算结果看,近10年农民相对市民的发展权不足一半,且并未有所改善。单看农民发展结果类指标数值城乡差距有增大趋势。从农民发展权构成看,政治发展权是短板。[结论]近10年农民发展权处于弱势且未得到保障。政治发展权的短板是农民发展权未得到保障的根源。给予农民更多话语权,财政资金的投入向农民更多倾斜,只有这样才可能降低现有的农民和市民发展结果的差异。     

A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING THE DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY IN THE UK

In this paper an investment demand function is estimated, making use of some particular characteristics of data on the sales of agricultural equipment in the UK. The characteristics are that, first, much of agricultural equipment is deliverable quickly from stock and does not appear to be supply-constrained, thus allowing equality of actual and desired capital stocks as a working hypothesis. Second, frequent replacement of machinery leads to depreciation rates which are high and variable. A method is presented to calculate a variable depreciation rate for each period and the resulting estimates are superior to the same model with a conventional, fixed depreciation rate.     

TAX CHANGES AND MACHINERY INVESTMENT

The effects of recent tax changes on the profitability and feasibility of machinery investment and on the incentive for the substitution of labour by machinery are studied. Using two examples, variations in tax, interest and inflation rates are also evaluated, as is the effect of the consideration of tax bands. The results indicate that not only has the change in capital allowances made machinery investment less favourable, but so also does the use of tax bands, especially for more expensive items. If interest and inflation rates decline in the longer term the profitability of machinery investment will deteriorate, although feasibility may improve.     

Role of education and extension in the adoption of technology: a study of upland rice and soybean farmers in Central-West Brazil

This paper explores reduced form determinants of the adoption of certain technologies by upland rice and soybean farmers in the Center-West region of Brazil. We merge community level data on the availability and quality of publicly provided infrastructure, principally extension, to the farm level data containing information on farmer human capital as well as land quantity and quality. By using community level measures of availability and quality of extension, we avoid problems of endogeneity of farm level measures of extension use. We find positive impacts of farmer education on the diffusion process, in accordance with other studies. We also isolate effects of the quality in regional extension investment as measured by the average experience of technical extension staff. These results indicate that investments in human capital of extension workers does have a payoff in terms of farmer adoption of improved cultivation practices.     

A dynamic analysis of cost-share agri-environmental programs

The purpose of this paper is to theoretically examine the efficiency of a cost-share agri-environmental program through a farm life cycle lens. Faced with a growing environmental impact from agricultural production, the farmer must decide when and how aggressively to invest in environmental capital. The steady state of the optimal control problem reveals the trade-off between allocating farm profits to consumption versus environmental improvements. A payment from a cost-share program reduces the time to investment in environmental capital, and also permanently increases the farmer's level of investment. A lack of targeting results in inframarginal farmers being paid more than the minimum amount that is required to induce investment. The portion of both the marginal payment and the average payment that induces new investment declines as the government's share of the payment increases, and this decline decreases overall program efficiency. Despite this inefficiency, a larger payment from a cost-share program is shown to decrease the farm's environmental impact in both the short and long run.     

Short and long‐run returns to agricultural R&D in South Africa,or will the real rate of return please stand up?

This paper briefly presents the results of a total factor productivity (TFP) study of South African commercial agriculture, for 1947‐1997, and illustrates some potential pitfalls in rate of return to research (ROR) calculations. The lag between R&D and TFP is analyzed and found to be only 9 years, with a pronounced negative skew, reflecting the adaptive focus of the South African system. The two‐stage approach gives a massive ROR of 170%. The predetermined lag parameters are then used in modeling the knowledge stock, to refine the estimates of the ROR from short‐ and long‐run dual profit functions. In the short run, with the capital inputs treated as fixed, the ROR is a more reasonable 44%. In the long run, with adjustment of the capital stocks, it rises to 113%, which would reflect the fact that new technology is embodied in the capital items. However, the long‐run model raises a new problem since capital stock adjustment takes 11 years, 2 years longer than the lag between R&D and TFP. If this is assumed to be the correct lag, the ROR falls to 58%, a best estimate. The paper draws attention to the possible sensitivity of rate of return calculations to assumed lag structure, particularly when the lag between changes in R&D and TFP is skewed.     

城镇化背景下中国农村家庭住房的集约性特征分析

中国土地资源稀缺而住房需求庞大,长期形成的农村家庭住房粗放建设惯性与当前城镇化的快速增长因素相互叠加,会造成资源与资金的浪费,不利于农村的可持续发展,因此须提倡面向集约型的农村家庭住房模式。为此,文章设计投资强度、用地强度及使用强度等3个集约性指标来分析城镇化背景下中国农村家庭住房的集约性特征,以期为有关工作提供参考。首先总结各指标的省际差异与空间格局特征,再聚类分析集约类型特征,接着考察背景因素人口城镇化率与影响因素农村收入水平、村庄用地宽松程度、地形平坦程度、农村人口净流出强度等对农村家庭住房集约性的影响,最后结合城镇化率水平差异探讨各省农村家庭住房集约化的态势。研究表明:2010年时,各省之间农村收入水平与投资强度、用地强度呈正相关性,与使用强度呈负相关性;用地紧张的省份,使用强度一般较低,如果同时地形崎岖,则还会有用地强度较高的特点;农村人口净流出较多的省份,通常用地强度较高且使用强度较低;各省之间随着城镇化率变高,投资强度增大的趋势比较明显,但使用强度未呈现显著的单向变化,住房高度则呈现差异化发展格局。各省的现状集约性程度存在与其城镇化率水平不相称的情形,由此可能导致资源与资金的浪费,值得引起关注并加以干预。     

Managing complexity in modern farming*

Modern farming in Australia is no longer simple. Farms are large, multi‐enterprise businesses underpinned by expensive capital investments, changing production technologies, volatile markets and social challenges. The complexity of modern broadacre farming leads to the question: what is the nature of the relationship between farm business complexity and farm profitability? This study uses bioeconomic farm modelling and employs eight measures of complexity to examine the profitability and complexity of a wide range of broadacre farming systems in Australia. Rank order correlations between farm profitability and each measure of complexity show inconsistent relationships, although the most profitable farming systems are found to be reasonably complex on several criteria. Among the set of highly profitable systems are found some characterised by less complexity. A commonly acknowledged feature of farm business complexity is the annual workload of the farmer, yet the trade‐off between farm profit and this workload is found not to be large. A case is outlined where the farmer’s annual hours worked could be reduced by 9 per cent for a 3 per cent reduction in farm profit. If farmers’ workloads are proving problematic now, and in the future, then agricultural R&D, service delivery and policy development will need to focus more on being highly attractive to increasingly time‐poor farm managers.     

Measuring Real Capital Input in OECD Agriculture

This paper provides a farm sector comparison of levels of capital input for 17 OECD countries. The estimates of capital input are derived by representing capital stock as a weighted sum of past investments. The weights correspond to the relative efficiencies of capital goods of different ages, so that the weighted components of capital stock have the same efficiency. We convert estimates of capital stock into estimates of capital services by means of capital rental prices. Comparisons of levels of capital input among countries require data on relative prices of capital input. We obtain relative price levels for capital input among countries via relative investment goods prices, taking into account the flow of capital input per unit of capital stock in each country.
Cet article se propose de comparer le niveau du capital dans Vagriculture de 17pays de l'OCDE. Les estimations du niveau de capital sont déduites en calculant un stock de capital comme une somme pondérée des investissements passés. Les poids utilisés correspondent a Vefficacite relative des biens capitaux à différents âges, de telle sorte que les différentes composantes du stock du capital ait la même efficacité. Le stock de capital est déduit une estimation des services de capital en utilisant un taux de rentabilité. Cette comparaison des niveaux de capital entre pays nécessite des données sur les prix relatifs du capital. Ces prix dépendent des prix relatifs des biens capitaux mais aussi des flux de service générés dans chaque pays par une unité de capital.     

The Optimal Length of an Agricultural Carbon Contract

In this paper, we present the economic determinants of the optimal length of a carbon offset contract. We find that because of a declining capacity of the soil to sequester carbon, the optimal length of the carbon contract is finite (the marginal benefit of remaining in the contract is declining over time, whereas marginal opportunity cost is rising). We also explore the effect of varying key parameter values on the optimal length in the contract. If the contract requires the farmer to sequester at a higher rate, the farmer chooses the contract for a shorter length of time, and this may decrease rather than increase social welfare. If society places a higher value on carbon accumulation, the contract is chosen for a longer length of time. Finally, if both the farmer and society have a higher discount rate, the model provides a somewhat surprising result. The overall time in the contract, and benefits from carbon accumulation are higher when the common discount rate is higher.     

Uncertain Land Availability and Investment Decisions: The Case of Dutch Dairy Farms

Within the EU, uncertainty about the possibility of acquiring land can be quite significant for individual farmers in sectors like dairy farming. Farm‐level investment decisions are commonly made ex‐ante, when the farmer is not certain about the possibility of purchasing land. This possibility is realised only in a future period. In this paper, we have developed and applied a simple two‐period model in which a profit‐maximising farmer, facing uncertainty about the possibility of acquiring land, has to choose the optimal mix of capital (buildings) investment and land endowment. We illustrate the model using data from Dutch dairy farms.     

自然资本核算方法研究——基于国家公园的视角

选取全球在国家公园建设方面比较具有代表性的5个国家--美国、巴西、英国、澳大利亚和南非,以及中国十大国家公园体制试点,对比分析其国家公园建设现状与自然资本存量与流量特征,并以我国三江源国家公园为研究案例,基于存量与流量视角,对其进行自然资本实物核算与货币核算。研究认为,对我国国家公园进行有效自然资本核算十分必要且意义重大,并为我国国家公园自然资本核算提出了确定自然资本核算范围;明确自然资本核算顺序,完善核算体系;注重自然资本投资等建议。     

Integrated rural development—helping people help themselves

Sanjit Roy argues that the quest for social justice and the equal distribution of wealth is implicit in any integrated rural development (IRD) project. He claims that up until now, these issues have been rarely linked in India, which has lead to failure. In setting up any IRD programme, the questions of which people and what form of participation is necessary, must be addressed with care. The author argues that those who live below the poverty line should be the main target of such schemes, and these communities must be reached without intermediaries. There is a desperate need in India for face-to-face encounters between the professional and the beneficiary: between geologist and farmer, nurse and pregnant woman, teacher and truant. Such an approach is more likely to bring about a degree of participation beyond that reached so far. Sanjit Roy explains how basically it is a matter of trust; the poor must be trusted to think positively about their own development and the social barriers which have prevented this must be broken down.     

住宅投资、要素结构与配置效率——基于北京市各区县的实证研究

研究目的:估算各类资本存量、生产函数要素弹性系数和要素边际报酬率,实证研究住宅价格及其资本存量的内涵型和外延型资源配置机制,考察它们对要素配置效率和全要素生产率扭曲程度的影响。研究方法:理论模型法,面板校正标准误法(PCSE)。研究结果:(1)住宅开发主要通过投资而非价格产生影响,抵押担保效应、要素挤出效应和技术创新效应很显著,其他效应不显著;(2)住宅资本存量对要素配置效率和全要素生产率扭曲的影响也显著,而住宅价格的影响面和显著性都较低。研究结论:住宅资本存量比住宅价格的资源配置效应更强,都恶化了非住宅业资源配置扭曲度。因此,要盘活存量、优化增量和管好总量,完善住宅调控基础性制度安排,科学测度和控制住宅价格及增速。     

不同兼业程度农户耕地利用行为及其效率研究——基于甘肃、青海两省部分市县的实证分析

运用农户模型构建兼业对耕地利用行为及其效率的分析框架,在分离性成立的前提下,以农户调研数据为基础,利用分组比较、数据包络等方法分析不同兼业类型农户之间的耕地利用行为和效率的差异。研究结果表明:兼业类型对农户耕地利用方式和行为选择有显著的影响,不同类型农户的投入、管理行为和土地规模存在较大差异。总体来说,兼业农户的资本投入、劳动投入等高于纯农户,在兼业户中兼业户Ⅱ高于兼业户Ⅰ;不同的耕地利用行为又导致了耕地利用效率的差异,在分离性成立的条件下,数据包络分析计算出的技术效率表现为纯农户大于兼业户Ⅰ,且两者均大于兼业户Ⅱ。