Medium-term EU integration impacts on Norwegian agriculture: A partial equilibrium analysis

The paper analyses and discusses possible impacts on Norwegian agriculture of an EU membership based on the regionalized agricultural sector model CAPRI. Norwegian agriculture is characterized by a small-scale farming structure and high levels of support. Previous analyses have shown that Norwegian agriculture is expected to undergo dramatic changes because of EU membership in terms of farm income, production and structural change. Our study indicates that a substantial share of the agricultural production can be maintained at the national level. Milk and crop production may remain largely unaffected, while meat production decreases in the range of 10-20% compared to a reference run without membership. However, a reduction in total farm income by about 40% indicates that structural adjustments will follow EU accession. The results are discussed in view of the pattern of adjustments observed in Finland and Austria after EU accession in 1995. The need for the dairy industry to take advantage of the improved market access is stressed. Attention is also called to some strengths and limitations of the CAPRI model to analyse large-scale policy changes and to identify model improvements as an area of future research.     

Driving Forces behind Exiting from Farming in Western Europe

This study examines the exit process of Western European farmers. Using a simple theoretical model of structural change, we examine empirically the impact of farm characteristics, macroeconomic conditions and policy intervention on farm exits during the 1990s. Econometric estimates using regional data for 110 regions in Western Europe indicate that exits from farming are strongly influenced by farm characteristics and policy conditions. In particular, exit rates are higher in regions with smaller farms and are closely related to production structures. Exit rates are lower in regions with more part‐time farming, high subsidy payments and high relative price increases for agricultural outputs, indicating that off‐farm income and government intervention slow down structural change in European agriculture.     

China’s Agricultural Policy Transition: Impacts of Recent Reforms and Future Scenarios

This article reviews recent developments in China’s agricultural domestic support policy, especially the transition from taxing farmers and agriculture to providing direct subsidies to grain production and purchased inputs. A model‐based quantitative analysis on the effects of these policy changes is presented. Simulation results suggest that recent policy changes have achieved the declared policy goals of increasing grain production and boosting farm income. Much of the increase in grain production and farm income can be attributed to higher per unit return to arable land, land reallocation to grain production and extra agricultural employment triggered by the policy changes. Based on the assumption that China’s public assistance to agriculture and farmers will continue and rise, two hypothetical future scenarios are simulated. Using all the support permitted under WTO de minimis limits with existing instruments, China’s policy will increase grain production, change trade patterns seemingly contrary to China’s comparative advantage, increase rural employment and significantly increase farm income (by more than 12%). If, however, decoupled instruments are applied to raise China’s agricultural domestic support to the same level, China’s agricultural production and trade will remain unchanged, rural employment remain stable, but farm income will be increased by nearly 15%.     

Income Mobility and Income Inequality in Scottish Agriculture

The paper explores the distributional consequences of farm income mobility in Scotland, focusing on the extent to which farm income inequality is a chronic as opposed to a temporary phenomenon and on the nature of the dynamic processes driving changes in farm income inequality over time. The empirical results reveal that the majority of farm income inequality was long‐run or structural in nature, reflecting differences in both farm business size and farm‐specific factors such as land quality, managerial ability and business structures. Evidence of absolute convergence in farm incomes is explained by short‐run adjustments towards equilibrium or target incomes conditional upon prices, technology and farm business size, with farm business growth conditional upon survival found to have had no significant redistributive effect.     

Nonfarm employment,agricultural intensification,and productivity change: empirical findings from Uganda

This article uses panel data from the Living Standards Measurement Study‐Integrated Surveys on Agriculture for Uganda to assess the farm‐level effects of nonfarm employment on agricultural intensification and productivity change. A sample selection model is used to account for both unobserved heterogeneity and potential simultaneity between agricultural production and nonfarm income. Results show that nonfarm employment can have differential impacts on farm technology intensity and productivity. Nonfarm income is found to have a positive impact on farm hired labor and improved seed intensity; a negative effect on on‐farm family labor use; and no significant impact on fertilizer, soil water management, and joint use of farm technologies. The econometric evidence also indicates that agricultural productivity declines as nonfarm income increases. Taken together, our findings reveal important trade‐offs between nonfarm employment and income and farm productivity growth under smallholder agriculture. The results indicated that targeted policies are required to reduce these potential trade‐offs between nonfarm employment and agricultural intensification and productivity change.     

The impact of agricultural policy on farm income concentration: the case of regional implementation of the CAP direct payments in Italy

One of the objectives of agricultural policy worldwide concerns the support of farm income. Common Agricultural Policy direct payments (DPs) are the main instruments to support farm income in the European Union. This article addresses their role in the concentration of farm income. This is done by calculating the Gini coefficient and its disaggregation in a large sample of Italian farms in the period between 2006 and 2007. Although this approach has been used to develop ex‐post analysis in previous studies, this article is innovative given that it is used here in an ex ante analysis aimed at evaluating the likely impact of a recent reform proposal. This latter requests changing the current model to a regional model of DPs application to make payment rates (i.e., payment per hectare) homogeneous among farms in the same region. The analysis shows that DPs and farm incomes are both very concentrated but that DPs allow for an income concentration reduction in Italian farms. The shift to a regional implementation reduces DPs concentration and, to a limited extent, farm income concentration. Of the considered regionalization scenarios, those that redistribute DPs among regions are the most effective in reducing concentration. The extension of the Gini considered approach to an ex ante setting seems effective because it provides insights that could feed the policy debate regarding the forthcoming reform.     

Technology,market policies and institutional reform for sustainable land use in southern Mali

To identify appropriate interventions that support sustainable land use; a farm household modelling approach is applied to analyze micro-economic supply reactions to various policy measures. The modelling framework links agro-technical and economic data, and takes both production and consumption decisions into account, allowing land use and production technology adjustments in accordance with farm household objectives. Different types of farm households are distinguished on the basis of their resource endowments, savings coefficients and time discount rate. Actual and alternative (sustainable) cropping and livestock activities for different weather regimes are defined for southern Mali. The effects on sustainable land use and expected farm household welfare of adopting alternative technologies and modifying prices, transaction costs, access to credit and land taxes are demonstrated. Even with full information on sustainable technologies, strong policy interventions are required to halt soil degradation. Structural policies proved to be more effective than price policies to reduce soil degradation while maintaining positive income effects. When prices are determined endogenously, structural policy loses some effectiveness as an incentive for sustainable land use due to the effect of additional supply on local cereal and meat Prices.     

Internal and contextual drivers of dairy restructuring: evidence from French mountainous areas and post‐quota prospects

The end of the milk quota system in Europe has resulted in substantial structural changes to the dairy industry, calling its future into question, especially in mountainous areas. This study analyzes the internal and contextual factors that influence dairy restructuring in French mountainous areas. Three complementary logit models are used to specify farmer decisions (e.g., dairy production exit, stability, and growth). Original and exhaustive geo‐located administrative datasets are combined to create a farm longitudinal dataset and characterize farm‐restructuring patterns on a fine geographical scale. Farm size, corporate legal status, and specialization are positively associated with farm growth. Viable diversification strategies through either farm processing or agro‐environmental scheme contracting are also highlighted. Farm sustainability is supported by the economic success of the local industry and the propensity to adopt extensive practices. With respect to public policy, dairy policy appears to have the strongest impact. Thus, the liberalization of dairy policy threatens the future of dairy farming, particularly in areas with low milk density and no production under labels. This work calls for a policy that promotes the collective dimension of dairy farm performance. The current rural development policy alone may be insufficient to support farms’ long‐term sustainability.     

Factors affecting farm growth intentions of family farms in mountain regions: Empirical evidence for Central Switzerland

Family farms in mountain regions are undergoing a progressive structural change and an ongoing shift in the allocation of production factors land, capital and labor. In Switzerland, various policy measures influence the re-allocation of these production factors. To understand the effectiveness of these schemes and to assess future farm structural change, it is useful to analyze the underlying drivers which support and hinder the emergence of individual farm growth strategies. We study the family farms’ growth intentions using a logistic regression model based on a combination of census and survey data on family characteristics from two mountain case study regions in Central Switzerland. Factors supporting farm growth intentions are the relative change in farm size in recent years, farm related sunk costs, farm diversification and farm size. We found no support for the hypothesis that farm growth intention is also influenced by the perceived personal situation represented by indicators for the perceived workload, psychological stress and financial problems. In addition, off-farm labor did not prevent farmers from stating growth intentions. Our empirical findings suggest that (i) the most important factors which support farm growth intentions correspond with factors driving observed patterns of structural change; (ii) limited availability of family labor may result in a new critical threshold for farm growth strategies; (iii) aims and non-pecuniary preferences of farmers will impede a rapid structural change in the near future.     

Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi

This study examines the ex‐ante farm‐household effects of changes in family size, yield potential, and yield gaps using a farm‐household simulation model that reflects the economic and biophysical conditions of central Malawi. Disparities between growth in human population and crop yields present challenges for farm‐household crop production and income in sub‐Saharan Africa. We focus on the effect of growth in yield potential and a more efficient use of livestock manure as approaches to improving crop production and incomes in the face of looming population pressures. Our results suggest that, even without considering climate change, expected changes in population density and crop prices in 2050 mean that per person crop production and income may fall by 21% compared to 2013 values if yield potential and yield gaps remain constant. However, per person crop production and income could increase in 2050 by 8% compared to 2013 values if (1) growth rates of yield potential rise for maize by 1.13% each year and for legumes rise by at least 0.4% each year, and (2) farmers use livestock manure more efficiently. Our foresight approach to considering crop production at the farm‐household scale supplements macro‐scale analyses of the production dimension of food security.     

Marginal Analysis of Income Mobility Effects by Income Source with an Application to the Agricultural Policy Mix

The Note makes novel use of a decomposition of the Shorrocks mobility index by income source to identify the impact on farm income mobility of a marginal change in each component of income. An empirical application shows that a revenue‐neutral change in the balance of agricultural protection between market‐based support and direct payments would not have reduced the variability of relative farm incomes in Scottish agriculture.     

The Redistributive Effects of Agricultural Policy on Scottish Farm Incomes

This paper focuses on the measurement of the redistributive effects of agricultural policy, proposing measures to characterise and quantify these effects that are based on the change in absolute value of the Gini coefficient. An illustrative study shows that the distribution of support in Scotland in 1999/2000 was regressive with respect to pre‐support farm incomes. Nevertheless, the provision of support would have had an equalising effect on farm incomes but for the resulting changes in the ranking of farms within the income distribution. Reranking not only makes ‘coupled’ support policies ineffective but also inefficient as redistributive instruments.     

The effects of EU agricultural policy changes on farmers' risk attitudes

This analysis utilises a model of production under risk estimatedon Finnish farm-level data to measure farmers' risk attitudesin a changing policy environment. We find evidence of heterogeneousrisk preferences among farmers, as well as notable changes overtime in farmers' degree of risk aversion. This result is dueto the increase in the non-random part of farm income generatedby the policy change after Finland's European Union accession.The analysis confirms the assertion that agricultural policiesthat are decoupled from production do affect input use and cropmix through their effect on farmers' risk attitudes.     

Internet Access and Farm Household Income – Empirical Evidence using a Semi‐parametric Assessment in Taiwan

There is considerable literature examining individuals’ behaviour with respect to Internet use, but less attention is paid to farm household use of the Internet. Among the few studies on farm households, the emphasis is on the correlation between socioeconomic factors and the adoption of the Internet. Thus, relatively little is known about the association between Internet use and farm household well‐being. In an effort to fill this void, this paper investigates Internet access among farm households and examines the effects of Internet access on farm household income. Given the observed income gap between Internet users and non‐users, we then investigate the extent to which socioeconomic factors may be associated with this income gap. Using a nationwide survey of farm households in Taiwan, a novel econometric model is proposed and estimated employing a semi‐parametric technique. Our results support the conclusion that Internet use improves farm household income. Most of the income gap between adopters and non‐adopters can be explained by the differences in the return of the socioeconomic factors.     

IMPACTS OF TAXES TO REDUCE AGRICHEMICAL USE WHEN FARM POLICY IS ENDOGENOUS

The economic impacts of policies to reduce water pollution from agriculture have been explored in a number of studies. A standard assumption in this literature is that farm income support policies are given. However, the modern public choice view of agricultural policy suggests that significant environmental initiatives in agriculture would likely be accompanied by changes in farm income policies to protect those with a significant stake in agriculture. We explore the potential effects of such compensating adjustments on the costs and effectiveness of taxes on polluting chemical inputs in US corn production. We find that compensating farm policy adjustments can greatly increase the costs and reduce the effectiveness of the environmental protection measure. The results also indicate the potentially high costs of poor policy co-ordination.     

The Effects of Direct Payments on Technical Efficiency of Irish Beef Farms: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis

The 2003 Mid‐Term Review of the CAP sought to refocus the EU's farm support policy to foster a more competitive and market‐orientated agricultural sector. The foundation of this reform comprised the introduction of decoupled payments to farmers, replacing the EU's previous system of supports that were directly linked to production of designated crops and livestock. This paper explores the effect of coupled payments and their subsequent replacement by decoupled support, on the technical efficiency of specialist beef farms in Ireland. Given the high reliance of beef farmers in Ireland on CAP payments, the decoupling of payments has been especially important for the sector. A stochastic production frontier is estimated using a panel dataset comprising detailed accountancy data for Irish beef farms between the years 2000 and 2013. Our results indicate that technical efficiency in the beef farming sector has been consistently poor, with an average efficiency score of only 0.53 during the period analysed. However, we found that direct income received in the form of coupled payments had a positive impact on farm efficiency, and that this positive effect was maintained after their replacement with decoupled income support.     

Modeling and Extrapolating Wheat Producer Support Using Income and Other Factors

Using wheat market support data from 55 countries for 1961–2011 from the World Bank Agricultural Distortion database, we develop a fixed effect model that shows a more complicated, nonlinear relationship between income and wheat support and its components than previously realised. We find that income generally has a greater effect on border market price support than on domestic price support. Moreover, the difference between these types of support is greater for net importers than for net exporters and has increased with the URAA or WTO accession. Holding other variables constant, the wheat support level of China, driven mainly by border market price support, is projected to rise with future income growth. Meanwhile, Japan is projected to maintain its high level of support, while the US and EU are projected to maintain their lower levels of support. These results are relevant in the context of multilateral trade negotiations, arguing against a narrow focus on past or current policy profiles and for long‐run analyses that might mistakenly rest on the inconsistent assumptions of constant agricultural policies against the backdrop of rising incomes.     

An Evaluation of the Compensation Required by European Union Cereal Growers to Accept the Removal of Price Support

Motivated by the policy trend of exposing European Union farmers to more market risk by reducing price support, this paper evaluates the compensation required by EU cereal growers to accept the complete removal of price support. Additional considerations are whether this policy change also includes the removal of set‐aside, or features only a partial removal of price support. A model is developed which captures the main on‐ and off‐farm factors influencing grower perceptions of the impact of this policy change. This model is subjected to a numerical analysis which shows that divergent assessments of the expected profitability of releasing to production land previously set‐aside mean growers are unlikely to agree whether compensation is even required. It is concluded that the retention of set‐aside for environmental purposes is likely to mean growers are more united in their perception of the need for, and amount of, compensation to accept the removal of price support.     

FARM DIVERSIFICATION AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT

Under a new policy initiative, grants will be payable for the setting up of ancillary businesses on or adjacent to farms in the UK. While this initiative is to be welcomed, it is suggested that more could be done to develop the rural economy as a whole. Farm diversification grants, modelled on previous farm capital grant schemes, are focused on a narrow range of activities, for which demand is likely to be limited, and are most appropriate for the larger farm. They imply that farmine will continue to be the main activity and run counter to current trends. The goals of rural development and farm income support might be pursued more effectively by encouraging the creation in rural areas of off-farm employment, unrelated to agriculture, and suitable for members of families on low-income farms.     

Economic and Household Impacts of Projected Policy Changes for the Irish Agri‐food Sector

The policy environment for the Irish agri‐food sector could change rapidly in the coming decade. A potentially positive factor will be the elimination of milk quotas in 2015, although a potentially negative factor will be further trade liberalisation and increased import competition. These changes come on top of the move to decouple direct aids to farmers in 2005 as part of the Mid‐Term Review of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy agreed in 2003. This paper examines these reforms and their impacts on the Irish economy and income distribution using a CGE model particularly rich in detail on the agri‐food sectors, differentiated household groups, and agricultural policy instruments including their links to productive factors and households. The results suggest that the past and projected changes in the policy environment have, in sum, a small positive impact on GDP and household income. However, the gains and losses are unequally distributed across sectors and household groups due to the highly differentiated distribution of support and protection. Although all households generally gain from the sequence of policy reforms in the long run, some experience strong adverse effects from particular reforms and in the medium term.