全产业链发展 2023年我国乳业发展前景可期

<正>乳制品是指以生鲜牛羊乳及其制品为主要原料，经加工而制成的各种产品，主要分为液体乳、乳粉、炼乳、乳脂肪、干酪、乳冰淇淋和其他乳制品7大类。乳制品制造的产业链较长，涵盖饲草饲料、奶牛养殖、乳制品加工、终端销售等多个环节，对提升居民营养健康水平，带动三农发展具有重要意义。近年来，随着我国居民收入和消费水平的提高，     

中国城镇居民家庭收入对其乳制品消费结构的影响

乳制品价格与居民收入已成为限制居民奶类消费增长的重要因素,当任何一种乳制品价格上涨,城镇居民会倾向于购买其他乳制品替代。本文基于2018年中国6座典型城市3000户居民的调查数据,运用QUAIDS模型分析由巴氏杀菌乳、灭菌乳、常温酸奶、低温酸奶、奶粉、奶酪和奶油的价格变化所导致的需求变化特征,并进一步采用Tobit模型考察收入对乳制品消费结构的替代影响。结果表明,收入和价格是影响城镇居民乳制品消费增长的主要因素,各类乳制品之间的相互替代性较强,随着居民收入水平的持续提高,消费者更偏好于奶酪、奶油、巴氏杀菌乳消费,各类乳制品的消费量也将进一步增长,巴氏杀菌乳增长将快于其他乳制品。     

我国乳制品质量安全问题发生机理及对策分析

本文在对近几年我国食品安全问题的回顾以及我国乳业流通、营销渠道分析的基础上,从原料乳的生产过程、加工过程、边缘地区的流通、管理机制几个方面对乳制品质量安全问题发生机理进行深入剖析,并对如何解决乳制品质量安全问题,减少食品安全事件的发生提出相应的对策及建议.     

国家乳、肉类产品质检中心成立

近日,国家乳制品及肉类产品质量监督检验中心在呼和浩特市成立。据了解,该中心是国家质量监督检验检疫总局授权、具有第三方公正地位、法定的产品质量监督检验机构。该中心设在自治区产品质量检验所,受国家质量监督检验检疫总局委托,承担全国乳制品及肉类产品质量国家监督抽查任务,面向社会各界提供乳制品及肉类产品质量检验和相关技术服务。内蒙古拥有得天独厚的畜牧业养殖条件,特别是近几年来,随着“伊利”、“蒙牛”和“草原兴发”的相继崛起,内蒙古的乳肉制品在全国得到了广泛认可。该中心担负着全国乳肉产品质量保证的重要使命,会进一…     

我国原料乳生产模式演化路径研究——基于利益主体关系视角

近年来我国乳业发展迅速,但是原料乳产量增长的速度一直滞后于加工乳品企业需求增长的速度,这主要源于我国原料乳生产仍处在一个较低的发展阶段,奶牛养殖模式落后,散户养殖所占比重大,效率较低的原料乳生产成为引发我国乳制品质量安全和制约乳业发展的关键因素。本文以不同利益主体之间的关系为依据对原料乳生产模式进行了重新划分,通过影响乳业生产发展的自身条件及外部动力研究探寻其演化的规律和特点,在此基础上研究原料乳生产模式的演化路径。     

一句话新闻

财政部近日发布《关于在部分行业试行农产品增值税进项税额核定扣除办法的通知》,自7月1日对以购进农产品为原料生产销售液体乳及乳制品、酒及酒精、植物油的增值税一般纳税人,开展农产品增值税进项税额核定扣除试点。隰以农业现代化为主题的《中国现代化报告     

生物炭对土壤肥料的作用及应用前景研究

将生物炭运用到农业生产中,可有效改善土壤质量,为农业生产提供肥料,改善土壤的理化性质,满足现代农业的需求。以生物炭为研究对象,对生物炭在土壤肥料中的作用进行了详细研究,结合当前的研究现状,分析了其未来的应用前景。     

固体饮料挑选

固体饮料属于软饮料的一类,主要分为蛋白型固体饮料和普通型固体饮料. 　　蛋白型固体饮料是指以乳及乳制品、蛋及蛋制品以及以其它动植物蛋白等为主要原料,添加或不添加辅料制成的、蛋白质含量大于或等于4%的制品,常见的产品有豆奶粉、核桃粉、麦乳精等.……     

2012年7月起乳品等可享农产品增值税进项税额抵扣

据报道，为调整和完善农产品增值税抵扣机制，经国务院批准，财政部、国家税务总局决定自2012年7月1日起在部分行业开展农产品增值税进项税额核定扣除试点，涉及以购进农产品为原料生产销售液体乳及乳制品、酒及酒精、植物油行业。     

中国乳制品产业集聚溢出效应研究

[目的]乳业振兴战略实施以来,国内乳业从饲草布局、奶牛养殖、原料乳加工、市场格局等迎来大发展的利好时机。产业集聚是当前乳业发展的重要特征,研究乳制品产业集聚的溢出效应对分析区域经济增长与产业竞争力等具有重要的参考价值。[方法]文章利用1992-2017年中国省域乳制品产业相关面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型,研究中国乳制品产业集聚带来的经济增长、产业发展及乳制品安全等溢出效应及其作用机理。[结果]乳制品企业、奶站、奶农等利益相关主体的集聚增加了乳制品产业内各环节的关联性,显著增加区域经济的增长,提高乳制品产业竞争力,为乳制品产业发展提供内源性动力,最后在微观层面,各利益相关主体的集聚程度在一定程度上有助于改善乳制品质量安全水平。[结论]在此基础上,从打造乳制品产业集聚区、乳业振兴及质量安全管控等方面提出政策建议,进一步发挥产业集聚的辐射能力、提高产业核心竞争力。     

Attitudes and Preferences of Kosovar Consumer Segments Toward Quality Attributes of Milk and Dairy Products

ABSTRACT

The dairy market is one of the fastest growing agri-food sectors in Kosovo, yet the farm structure is fragmented. The level of productivity is lower compared with European Union levels and shows potential for improvements. The consumption of dairy products is expected to rise due to income growth and segmentation of consumers that would reflect different preferences for low-fat or zero-fat products, products with natural additives, and so on. On the market level, a significant share of the consumed milk and dairy products is imported. This study aims to better understand attitudes and preferences of Kosovar consumer segments toward milk and dairy products. A quantitative survey with 300 consumers was conducted in major Kosovo cities. Applying a reduced version of the Food Related Lifestyle instrument identified three distinct consumer segments: the conservative consumer segment, the socially oriented foodie, and the information-seeking eco-consumer. The latter two segments are especially open to trying new food products and actively search information about food. All three consumer segments show strong consumer patriotism by believing that domestic milk and cheese are safer than imported products and are of higher quality. This indicates the strong market potential for dairy farmers and companies in the Kosovo, which should develop new food products having these segments in mind. The authors explore the strategies that farmers and companies should use to better target these consumer groups and gain greater access to desirable segments.     

Supply and demand for commodity components: implications of free trade versus the AUSFTA for the US dairy industry*

During the negotiations on the Australia–US free trade agreement (AUSFTA), the US dairy industry vigorously opposed opening the US market to imports of Australian dairy products on the grounds that the US industry would be devastated. Subsequently, the agreement signed in February 2004 made an exception for dairy, providing for only limited quota expansion and no free trade, even at the end of the long implementation period. This paper presents a simulation model of world dairy markets, represented by supply and demand equations for fat and non‐fat components of milk and manufactured dairy products. We use the model to analyse the effects on US milk markets of both a hypothetical agreement, allowing free bilateral trade in dairy products, and the actual AUSFTA. An important contribution to the literature is the derivation of explicit supply and demand relationships for milk components. The components model allows an analysis of long‐term production, consumption, and trade patterns that is not tied to specific, fungible products. Simulations indicate that increased imports from Australia resulting from bilateral trade liberalisation would have resulted in small reductions in US milk prices and production. The much smaller increases in Australian access to the US market under the actual AUSFTA will have even smaller, almost negligible, impacts.     

Household Consumption Patterns of Dairy Products in Bamenda Urban Town; Northwest Province,Cameroon

An analysis of data collected from 207 households from Bamenda urban town revealed a high preference for fresh milk though actual consumption was low. Only 36% of households reported consuming fresh milk. Apart from butter, all households reported consuming local and imported dairy products on a daily basis. Only 4%, 3% and 16% of low-, medium- and high-income households consumed fresh milk daily, while 7%, 12% and 6% of low-, medium- and high-income households consumed fresh milk weekly. Mean household consumption of fresh milk was 3 kg for the high-income households, 3 kg for the low-, and 2 kg for the medium-income households. Although high-income households spent more money on fresh milk compared to the medium- and low-income households, the proportion of income spent on fresh milk was lowest for the high, followed by medium and low income households. The study suggests the need to organize home-based education programmes on nutrition as a strategy for boosting the consumption of dairy products among low-income households.     

产业链视角下乳制品价格溢出效应研究——基于VAR-BEKK-GARCH(1,1)模型

奶业产业链是乳制品价格形成的基础,从产业链着手有助于发现乳制品价格溢出效应的本质特征。本文选取牛奶、酸奶、婴幼儿奶粉、老年奶粉作为乳制品的代表,基于2010年5月至2018年5月乳制品产业链月度价格数据,使用VAR-BEKK-GARCH(1,1)模型分析乳制品产业链各环节间的价格溢出效应。研究发现:婴幼儿奶粉产业链上、中、下游价格间存在显著的单向均值溢出效应,而牛奶、酸奶、老年奶粉产业链的中游对上游、下游对中游价格存在显著的单向均值溢出效应;牛奶、酸奶、婴幼儿奶粉、老年奶粉产业链各环节价格在自身和彼此间具有显著双向波动溢出效应,但从显著性水平来看,牛奶产业链和婴幼儿奶粉产业链各环节间的双向波动溢出效应最为明显。     

大城市居民低温奶产品消费及其影响因素分析以北京市为例

目的 低温奶产品是我国唯一可以与国际奶产品相抗衡的产品品类,未来低温奶产品必然在我国形成新的消费趋势,并成为复兴民族乳业的关键。基于此,探究大城市居民的低温奶产品消费认知水平、消费现状及其消费的影响因素既可开拓国内低温奶产品消费市场,也可弥补该产品消费研究的不足,对提高我国奶业国际竞争力具有重要现实意义。方法 文章通过使用2019年北京市8个辖区内的418位城镇居民乳制品消费调研数据,以不同群体特征作为切入点,深度分析大城市居民低温奶产品消费认知水平及消费现状,并借助Heckman两阶段模型考察个人及家庭特征和产品认知信息是否是影响城镇居民低温奶产品消费行为决策和消费水平的主要因素。结果 学生人口数、工作人口数、收入水平以及年龄、职业因素分别影响居民巴氏杀菌奶和低温酸奶的消费行为决策。年龄、教育水平以及性别、人口总数、职业因素分别影响居民巴氏杀菌奶和低温酸奶的消费水平。营养价值、口感风味和制作工艺因素对居民巴氏杀菌奶消费行为决策和消费水平均有显著影响,而保质期和价格因素仅对消费行为决策有显著影响。口感风味、制作工艺和价格因素对居民低温酸奶消费行为决策影响显著,但只有口感风味因素对消费水平有显著影响。结论 城镇居民低温奶产品认知概念薄弱,对营养价值、口感风味和保质期信息的认知程度较高。低温奶产品消费具有区域性差异,消费主力集中在女性人群、40~50岁人群、高学历和高收入人群中。个人和家庭特征以及产品认知信息对城镇居民巴氏杀菌奶和低温酸奶的消费行为决策和消费水平均具有显著影响。未来我国大城市居民的乳制品消费将逐渐趋于新鲜化和休闲化发展,低温奶产品消费将发展为新兴消费趋势,液态奶产品消费结构逐步改善。     

Consumption of dairy products in urban China: results from Beijing, Shangai and Guangzhou

Using urban survey data collected by the authors in 2001–02, this paper analyses demographics, cultural factors and purchasing behaviours influencing the consumption of fresh milk, yogurt, ice cream and powered milk in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, China. Results from estimation of a double-hurdle model of consumption show that income and marketing channels are the key determinants of milk consumption levels; however, education, advertising and convenience play a more important role in consumption of other dairy products. There is some evidence that milk powder, as a consumer good, may be becoming an inferior product in urban China. Finally, the survey data suggest that the growing sophistication of China's retail sector is influencing consumption of dairy products.     

Consumer Willingness to Pay for Dairy Products With the 100% Canadian Milk Label: A Discrete Choice Experiment

ABSTRACT

A component of the supply management policy governing the Canadian dairy sector is a requirement that all milk and cream sold in Canada be sourced from Canadian producers. Cheese, yogurt, and ice cream, however, can be made using imported milk components. Recently, the Dairy Farmers of Canada launched a 100% Canadian Milk label for products that contain only milk and milk ingredients produced in Canada. Featuring a discrete choice experiment, a Canada-wide survey of dairy consumers is used to elicit their willingness-to-pay for milk and ice cream carrying the 100% Canadian Milk label. The results show that Canadian consumers are willing to pay more for milk and ice cream products that carry the label. Consumer knowledge of the dairy sector affects their willingness to pay for this labeling information. Implications for the use of the Canadian origin label and suggestions for further research are discussed.     

Demand for dairy products in Mexico

Mexico is the world's largest importer of non-fat dry milk (NFDM) and imports of cheese, fluid milk, and whey have increased rapidly in the past four years. In the wake of GATT and the NAFTA, as well as recent economic developments in Mexico, world dairy markets will be affected as a result of changes in the Mexican dairy sector. The study analyzes both domestic and import demand for dairy products in Mexico to determine price and income elasticities as well as import elasticities. The results indicate that the demand for fluid milk is the most responsive to price changes and NFDM demand is inelastic with respect to its own price. There is little subtitution between fluid milk and non-fat dry milk, although fluid milk is relatively elastic, which suggests the existence of other substitutes for fluid milk. Estimation of import demand equations reveal similar trends in response to price changes, but income elasticity of imports was highest for fluid milk which suggests that Mexico will import possibly more fluid than dry milk as incomes rise. The exchange rate was the most significant variable influencing all dairy product imports.     

Comovement of dairy product futures and firm value: returns and volatility

This study investigates the exposure of dairy firm stock prices to the prices of dairy product futures, in terms of returns and volatility, from May 2013 to April 2018. Stock price returns are regressed against an index of the futures price returns to four dairy products – milk, cheese, butter and dry whey – to isolate the effects of the dairy futures price returns. Dairy product futures price returns are found to be significant in the regression in the first three years of the sample period, with a mean coefficient of ?0.024. Using the Diebold‐Yilmaz volatility spillover method of forecast error variance decomposition, we show that the volatility of the four dairy product futures accounted for an average of 5.49 per cent of the volatility of dairy stock prices. These results suggest that the prices of dairy firms have minimal exposure to dairy product futures prices. This has implications for dairy firms and investors, who seek to understand volatility and returns in the dairy products and the stocks they trade in, and for policymakers, who seek to control or mitigate undesirable dairy product price volatility.