The Adoption and Impact of Bovine Somatotropin on U.S. Dairy Farms

Data from a national survey representative of U.S. dairy operations were used to assess adoption and the production and financial impacts of recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST). Adoption rates of rbST varied significantly across the nation, but were higher among larger diary operations in all regions. However, the scale bias of rbST adoption was substantially diminished when the influence of location and the use of related technologies were measured. An increase in milk production per cow was associated with rbST adoption, but estimated financial impacts were not statistically significant due to substantial variation in the net returns of rbST adopters.     

Estimation of Treatment Effects of Recombinant Bovine Somatotropin Using Matching Samples

The production and profit impacts of recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST) on select New York dairy farms were estimated using data over the years 1994 through 2004, by comparing matching farms that use and do not use rbST. The use of rbST increases milk production per cow and decreases the cost of production per hundredweight of milk. The cost penalty (cost reduction) is $0.39 per hundredweight for those currently using rbST to stop using rbST, while the average treatment effect is $0.73.     

The U.S. Dairy Sector without Price Supports

Under legislation approved in 1996, the U.S. dairy price support program would end on 31 December 1999. While U.S. dairy markets would continue to be protected by import tariffs and export subsidies, the previous floor under market prices would be removed. Given the prospective market situation, model results indicate that removing the price support program would have only modest impacts on the U.S. dairy industry. Prices of nonfat dry milk may be lower without the price support program than they would be if the program continued, but the net impact on milk prices and production would be small. Unless world demand is substantially stronger than projected or unless U.S. supplies are much larger, unsubsidized U.S. exports of products such as butter and nonfat dry milk appear unlikely. Niche markets and changes in relative values of milk components, however, may offer other U.S. dairy export opportunities. En vertu d'une loi agricole approuvée par les États-Unis en 1996, le régime de soutien des prix des produits laitiers devait se terminer le 31 décembre 1999. Même si les marchés laitiers américains continueraient àêtre protégés par des tarifs douaniers à l'importation et par des subventions à l'exportation, le prix plancher en place serait enlevé. Vu la situation prospective du marché, les résultats modélisés font voir que le retrait du régime de soutien des prix n'aurait que des impacts modestes sur le secteur laitier américain. Les prix de la poudre de lait écrémé seraient peut-être plus bas que si le régime avail été maintenu, maisl'impact net sur les prix du lait et sur la production laitière serait faible. À mains que la demande mondiale n'augmente sensiblement plus que prévu ou que les stocks américains ne soient beaucoup plus importants, il est peu probable que des exportations non subventionnées de produits comme le beurre et la poudre de lait écrémé voient le jour dans le proche avenir. Toutefois, le développement de certains créneaux du marché et les changements affectant les valeurs relatives des composants laitiers pourraient se traduire par d'autres possibilitiés d'exportation pour les produits laitiers américains.     

Scale Economies and Inefficiency of U.S. Dairy Farms

This study employs data drawn from the 2000 Agricultural Resource Management Survey, a U.S. Department of Agriculture-sponsored farmers' survey. The article estimates returns to scale relationships across dairy farms of different sizes and across different regions, incorporating variables hypothesized to influence farm performance. Results point to significant scale economies in U.S. dairy farms and underscore the importance of taking account of inefficiency when estimating scale economies. Contrary to previous research, the preferred cost function specification does not show a region of decreasing returns to scale. This finding helps explain why the average size of dairy farms has been increasing.     

Environmental Regulation and the Spatial Structure of the U.S. Dairy Sector

Substantial public scrutiny about adverse environmental impacts of the dairy sector has resulted in increased environmental regulations. A behavioral model of location and production is developed to examine the impacts of environmental regulations, traditional location factors, and agglomeration economies on the spatial structure and geographical location of dairy production. The results show that counties in the states with more stringent environmental regulations tend to lose dairy inventories to those with less stringent policies. There are substantially meaningful spatial patterns of dairy production. Current dairy production levels are positively correlated while changes in production levels are negatively correlated across counties.     

A Microeconometric Analysis of the U.S. Meat Demand

Price and expenditure elasticities and estimates of the effect of household demographic variables on U.S. meat demand are estimated using the newly released 1987–88 USDA household food consumption survey data. The USDA survey for the first time included variables reflecting respondents' concerns for health and diet information. A hybrid demand system, which combines a modified generalized addilog system and a level version Rotterdam demand system, is developed as the analytical framework. The micro econometric analysis takes into consideration the consumer selection problem, the missing-price problem, and the aggregation and quality variation problem. The most significant household characteristic and socio-economic variables are region, ethnic background, household size, urbanization, food planner, received health information, female household head employment status and proportion of food expenditure on away-from-home consumption. The results support the speculation of other time-series meat demand studies claiming both health concerns and convenience are the reasons for changes in consumer preference in favor of poultry and fish and in disfavor of red meat.     

U.S. Dairy Policy and the Agreement on Agriculture in the WTO

The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone and in no way represent those of the institutions they represent. This paper calibrates a stylized national policy model of the U.S. dairy industry to analyze the effects of liberalizing the tariff quota policy. It is important to distinguish in-quota, over-quota, out-of-quota and nonquota imports. A framework to model quota underfill with out-of-quota imports is highlighted. To endogenize quota underfill and still account for out-of-quota imports, one needs to depict the marginal private benefits of imports under the quota and the corresponding marginal cost curve. The total transaction costs of the import quota scheme can be calculated. This framework is well suited for handling shocks because a change in in-quota or out-of-quota tariffs or a shift in the excess supply/demand curves affects marginal benefits, while a change in the quota affects the marginal cost of imports. We show regime switches affect trade liberalization and that a decrease in tariffs or an increase in quotas may have little effect without liberalizing both instruments. A component approach to model the sector has endogenous government-controlled class prices. An increase in imports of one product can result in an increase in the prices of other nontraded dairy products. This is because component prices change and so impact government-controlled class prices. Nous étalonnons un modèle de programme national stylisé du secteur laitier étatsunien pour analyser les effets d'une libéralisation de lapolitique des contingents tarifaires. Il est important de faire la distinction entre importation à l'intérieur du contingent, excédentaire au contingent, hors-contingent et non visée par un contingent. Nous mettons en évidence un cadre pour modéliser la portion non utilisée d'un contingent en présence d'importations hors-contingent. Pour endogénéiser la portion non utilisée d'un contingent tout en gardant en compte les importations hors-contingent, il faut décrire les avantages privés marginaux des importations prévues dans le contingent et la courbe des coûts marginaux correspondants. Les coûts transactionnels totaux des régimes de contingents tarifaires 4aG l'importation peuvent être calculés. Ce cadre convient bien pour absorber les chocs, du fait qu‘un changement des tarifs douaniers imposés aux importations intra-contingent ou aux importations hors-contingent, ou encore un déplacement de la courbe d'offres/demandes excédentaires, se répercute sur les bénéfices marginaux des exportations, alors qu‘un changement du régime de contingentement le fait sur les coûts marginaux. Nous démontrons que des changements de régime influent sur la libéralisation du commerce extérieur et qu'une réduction des tarifs douaniers ou une augmentation des contingents peuvent n'avoir que peu d'effets sans une libéralisation réelle des deux instruments. Une solution utilisant les composants laitiers pour modéliser le secteur comporte un contrôle endogène de l'État sur les prix par catégoric de produits. Un accroissement des importations visant un produit donné peut se propager aux prix d'autres produits laitiers non visés par les échanges commerciaux. Une telle réaction vient du fait que les prix des composants changent et qu'ils peuvent se réverbérer sur les prix par catégorie réglementés par l'État.     

Exploring Incentives for the Adoption of Food Safety Controls: HACCP Implementation in the U.K. Dairy Sector

This article explores the incentives that motivate the adoption of food safety controls by businesses through a study of HACCP adoption in the U.K. dairy processing sector. The study identifies four key factors that have motivated the adoption of HACCP, namely, internal efficiency, commercial pressure, external requirements, and good practice. Respondents to the survey are clustered according to the relative importance of these factors in their adoption decision. Four clusters are identified and related to the characteristics of firms, including firm size and type of products manufactured. The results indicate that there are systematic differences in the HACCP adoption process between individual firms.     

Effects of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Outbreaks on U.S. Cattle and Beef Prices

U.S. trade of beef and live cattle declined substantially after the discoveries of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada and the United States in 2003. In this study, an econometric model is developed to estimate the effects of lifting trade restrictions on U.S. cattle and beef prices. Results show that increases in imports of Canadian cattle and beef would lower prices of slaughter steers, feeder steers, and retail beef, but these negative impacts would be more than negated by the positive effects on prices that would result if beef exports return to near pre-BSE levels.     

U.S. Dairy Policy and the Agreement on Agriculture in the WTO: Discussion

The views and conclusions expressed in this discussion are those of the author and not those of his institution.     

A Price Analysis of U.S. Agricultural Exports in East Asian Markets

This paper examines the price competition between U.S. agricultural exports and that of its competitors in East Asia. The results show weak price competition in Japan's corn and soybean markets, and no price competition in the wheat market. U.S. cotton exports to Japan face strong price competition. In Hong Kong, U.S. market shares are low, while the demand for its rice, corn, soybeans and cotton is elastic. For South Korea and Taiwan, improved political relationships between China, South Korea, and Taiwan have caused the U.S. to lose market shares to China.     

An Assessment of Partial Dairy Trade Liberalization on the U.S., EU–15 and Canada

The next round of multilateral trade negotiations will involve the expansion of tariff rate quotas and the reduction of export subsidies in the dairy industry. A nonspatial multiregion model of the world dairy industry is used to analyze the potential impact of such reforms on the Canadian, the EU–15 and the U.S. dairy industries. The results from selected partial trade liberalization scenarios indicate that there is no scenario that provides benefits to all participants in the dairy industry. The analysis of partial trade liberalization, in terms of its growth effects, varies by country and by sector, making win–win compromises hard to reach among the participants in a country, and even more so across countries. More market-oriented though still protected regions such as the U.S. generally improve their competitive position in the world dairy market as border measures are removed. By contrast, the dairy sectors in regulated milk production markets such Canada and the EU–15 are projected to be better off when the reform package does not compromise current policy settings, while giving some additional market access for surplus dairy production. La prochaine ronde de négotiations commerciales mullilalérales abordera les questions de l'expansions des contingents tarifaires et la réduction des subventions à l'exportation dans le secteur laitier. Utilisant un modèle multirégion non spatial du secteur laitier mondial, nous analysons les répercussions évenluelles de ces réformes sur les secteurs laitiers du Canada, de l'Union Européenne et des États-Unis. Les résultals obtenus pour certains scénarios de libéralisation partielle des échanges font voir qu'aucun scénario ne profite à tous les participants de lafilière. Les effets de cette libéralisation partielle sur la croissance varient d'un pays et d'un segment de la filière à l'autre, rendanl difficile la recherche d'un compromis salisfaisant pour tous entre les participants d'un même pays el plus encore entre différents les pays. Les régions plus axées sur le marché, malgré un niveau relalivemenl élevé de protections, comme les États-Unis, améliorenl en général leur situation concurrentielle sur le marché mondial lorsque les barrières tarifaires sont enlevées. À l'inverse, les pays où la production du lail est réglement4eAe, comme le Canada el l'Europe des 15, le secteur laitier a tout avanlage à ce que le bloc de réformes ne vienne pas menacer le cadre actuel, tout en ouvrant quelque peu le marché aux productions lailières excédenlaires.     

浅析美国新能源政策及对我国的影响

应对此轮国际金融危机,美国总统奥巴马推行的新能源政策势必给美国乃至世界能源和经济发展带来深远的影响.以发展新能源为核心,辅之以节能和提高能效,构成了奥巴马能源战略的主要框架.美国新能源政策对我国的影响主要在国际环保方面、国际能源和环保领域标准化方面以及产业领域.中国应及早采取应对策略以防止陷入被动的局面,一是通过加大宣传,寻求国际理解、合作和帮助;二是加快新能源相关标准的制修订;三是积极推动能源技术革新和应用推广.     

An Analysis of U.S. Aggregate Output Response by Farm Size

Past empirical evidence on supply response by size of farm in the U.S.A. provides no clear basis to conclude that supply elasticities vary systematically with farm size. In this paper, the central hypothesis that no systematic relationship exists between production response to price and size of farm is rejected. U.S. farms are disaggregated into nine economic size categories and own-price supply elasticities are measured for per farm and total agricultural output. Empirical results from this study suggest that supply response does vary systematically by farm size, with smaller farms exhibiting greater elasticities than midsized farms.     

An Analysis of Regional Economic Growth in the U.S. Midwest

In this paper, we examine more closely some of the forces that underlie economic growth at the county level. In an effort to describe a much more comprehensive regional economic growth model, we address a variety of different hypotheses by introducing a large number of growth-related variables. When formulating our hypotheses and specifying our growth model, we make liberal use of geographic mapping software to describe the data so as to "paint" a picture of where growth spots exist. Our empirical estimation indicates amenities, state and local tax burdens, population density, amount of primary agriculture activity, and demographics have important impacts on economic growth.     

Total Response Measures in Systems of Nonlinear Equations: An Application to a Model of the U.S. Dairy Sector

This paper develops total elasticity and flexibility results for general nonlinear, dynamic systems of equations. Unlike procedures for obtaining total response measures in linear systems, analytical procedures are difficult to obtain for nonlinear models; comparable results, however, may be obtained by using numerical simulations. The potential for obtaining total elasticity measures in nonlinear dynamic models is illustrated with an annual model of the U.S. dairy sector. Results show substantial evidence of asymmetric price and quantity adjustments, as well as limit cycles. Such complexities could not be uncovered by using linear models or a partial-equilibrium framework.