The U.S. Sugar Policy Reforms and World Sugar Trade

This article incorporates the U.S. sugar policy instruments in a spatial Nash equilibrium model of world sugar trade and simulates the consequences of the U.S. sugar policy reforms on sugar trade among major producing and consuming regions of the world. The results show that policy reforms which eliminate import barriers by the U.S. can lead to major changes in the directions and volumes of sugar trade. Specifically, U.S. sugar imports would increase but domestic production and consumer prices would decline. Several regions in the developing world would increase their shares of the world sugar export trade.     

The linkage between the U.S. ethanol market and developing countries’ maize prices: a panel SVAR analysis

The major expansion of U.S. ethanol production raises concerns about the potential detrimental impacts on developing countries’ agricultural prices, farm income, and food security. To assess the sensitivity of maize prices to ethanol production, this study explores the linkage between the U.S. ethanol market and developing countries’ maize prices. The econometric approach, based on a panel structural vector autoregression model, captures market interdependencies and the likelihood that developing countries’ responses are both heterogeneous and dynamic. The results indicate that the U.S. ethanol market's impacts on maize prices in developing countries are heterogeneous and that coastal countries are more susceptible to U.S. economic shocks. The estimates also suggest that countries more dependent on food imports and/or receiving U.S. food aid are at a higher risk of being affected by such shocks. Overall, the results indicate that those countries with the greatest sensitivity and exposure to global agricultural commodity markets could benefit from domestic policies and international assistance, which reduce their exposure to impacts from the U.S. maize market.     

Why U.S. Consumers Support Country of Origin Labeling: Examining the Impact of Ethnocentrism and Food Safety

ABSTRACT

The legality of U.S. country of origin labeling (COOL) laws for agricultural products has been challenged by foreign countries. Isolating the reasons why consumers support COOL can help determine the efficiency of COOL as a policy. Therefore, this study investigated why consumers have a desire for COOL. Data were collected through an online survey with 566 U.S. participants. Results of a bivariate ordered probit model indicate that as consumers are more ethnocentric and more pessimistic about the safety of their food, they are more likely to support COOL for sugar and for sugar in soft drinks. Thus, policies designed to inform the public about the safety of foreign commodities could reduce their desire for COOL. Evidence is also provided that highly ethnocentric individuals support COOL in an effort to “buy American” products.     

The National Economic Benefits of Food Imports: The Case of U.S. Imports of Hass Avocados From Mexico

Imports of food products are often seen primarily as a threat to domestic producers while the broader economic impacts are ignored. Research on rapidly growing U.S. avocado imports has focused on the consequences for the U.S. avocado industry. This study conducts an economic impact analysis to measure the level and industry distribution of any benefits of U.S. imports of avocados from Mexico that may accrue to the U.S. national economy. We find that the US$1.5 billion in U.S. imports of Mexican avocados in 2015 had a positive and statistically significant effect on the U.S. economy in that year. Every dollar of avocado imports from Mexico in 2015 generated US$2.31 in U.S. output, US$1.41 in U.S. GDP, and US$0.79 in U.S. labor income. About 12.3 jobs were generated per US$1 million of imports. A separate econometric analysis corroborates the result. We conclude that imports of Mexican avocados are pro-growth for the U.S. economy.     

A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis of U.S.–Canadian Disputes on the World Softwood Lumber Market

This paper utilizes a world spatial equilibrium model to examine the effects of U.S.–Canadian softwood lumber disputes on U.S., Canadian, and other exporters' and importers' lumber markets. Results show that the U.S. import tariff on Canadian softwood lumber impacts prices, supply, demand and trade flows not only in the United States and Canada but also in the other countries. Though the goal of U.S. trade restriction is to limit imports from Canada and protect its producers, the United States cannot fully accomplish this goal as non-Canadian exporters fill the void left by the reduced imports from Canada. Canadian producers lose from the U.S. policy, but their loss is mitigated as Canada redirects its exports to other importers. Importing countries such as Japan and the European Union benefit from the U.S. trade restrictions as Canada seeks to sell its softwood lumber to these countries.     

Linking of U.S. monetary policy and exchange rates to world soybean markets

The linkage between macroeconomic policies and agricultural commodity trade has become an important research issue of agricultural economists. This paper investigates the macroeconomic linkage of soybean trade competition between the exporting countries of the United States, Brazil, and Argentina in the EC-12 and Japan import markets. It is argued that U.S. monetary growth may have important impacts on the competitive position of U.S. soybean exports through exchange rates. Two relationships are investigated: (a) the effects of U.S. monetary growth on the agricultural trade weighted exchange rates, and (b) the responsiveness of agricultural commodity prices and U.S. exports to exchange rate movements. Results indicate that a weak dollar increases imports of soybeans and soymeal significantly which serves to increase the equilibrium world price and increase both U.S. and Brazil/Argentina exports in the long run. However, during periods of more expansionary U.S. monetary policy there is little evidence of significant increases in market share position for U.S. soybeans and soymeal in world markets.     

Imports versus Domestic Production: A Demand System Analysis of the U.S. Red Wine Market

The U.S. wine market experienced rapid growth in all facets—production, consumption, exports, and imports—over the past decade. Red wine imports more than tripled while consumption of domestically produced red wines doubled. This research estimates demand elasticities of U.S. red wine imports from five countries accounting for over 90% of imports—Italy, France, Spain, Australia, and Chile—using the first-difference version of the almost ideal demand system (AIDS). These elasticities are compared with those for domestically produced red wine. Results for conditional expenditure elasticities indicate that the U.S. red wine industry gains over imports when U.S. consumers' total expenditures on red wine increase. However, comparing own- and cross-price elasticities reveals an increase in the price of U.S. red wine results in a decline in quantity demanded six times greater than for French and Italian red wines and over 20 times greater than other import countries, thus harming the U.S. red wine industry. Empirical results suggest that U.S. red-wine producers could increase their total revenue by decreasing prices, while Italian and French producers can increase total revenues by increasing them.     

Link between Agricultural Assistance and International Trade

This paper investigates a central part of the argument that agricultural assistance by the United States to developing nations leads to diminished export markets for U.S. farmers. A sizeable cross section of low-income and lower-middle-income nations is used to provide statistical analyses of: (1) the link between agricultural productivity and economic performance, and (2) the link between economic performance and agricultural imports. The results show that a reasonably strong case can be made for the idea that advances in agricultural productivity are associated with long-run increases in imports of cereals and other agricultural products by less wealthy nations. The connection comes via the positive income effect of general economic development. For these countries, investments in agricultural development through successful assistance are not detrimental to U.S. farm export interests in the long run. They are generally beneficial. For middle-income nations, the case is less clear and more controversial. However, nothing in the cross-section data used suggests that farm productivity improvements in these nations is systematically threatening to U.S. agricultural trade in the long run.     

Sources of Real Exchange Rate Variability:

The effect of real exchange rate variability on the demand for agricultural imports by developing countries has potentially important implications for U.S. exporters because of the potential for expanded trade. This study uses the Edwards model (1987) to investigate variations in monetary factors, terms-of-trade, and trade policy (openness) as sources of Trinidad and Tobago's real exchange rate variability. Given that the influence of these factors on the determination of real exchange rate variability may be affected by the way in which trade-weighted-exchange-rate indexes are constructed, indexes for corn and wheat were used. The results indicate that although reductions in terms-of-trade variation yield reductions in exchange rate variability, monetary disturbances display both of the real-exchange-rate-variability-increasing and decreasing effects depending on the index used. Thus, the results do not support any clear set of policy actions through which export opportunities could be expanded for U.S. agricultural commodities.     

Japan's peanut import demand: implications for United States exports

Japan's import demand for both raw peanuts and processed peanut products was estimated using the Rotterdam model in order to determine the impact of an increase in the Japanese raw peanut quota on peanut imports from the USA and its competitors. The results indicate that if a larger import budget were allocated to raw peanut imports by Japan, most of the increase would be allocated to imports of Chinese raw peanuts. Furthermore, U.S. exports of peanut products could be affected if Japanese expenditures on peanut product imports change as a result of an increase in the quota for raw peanut imports. Thus, this study concludes that an increase in the Japanese import quota for raw peanuts provides only limited market opportunity for U.S. peanut exports, and China appears to benefit more than the USA from an increase in the Japanese raw peanut import quota. In contrast, the value added trade of peanut products could provide a better market opportunity for the U.S. peanut industry.     

U.S. food aid and American exports to recipient countries during the Cold War

In this article, we test to what extent the food aid granted by the U.S. during the Cold War was strategically motivated and used to promote U.S. interests. Using the data for the period 1971–1990, we investigate whether U.S. wheat aid had an effect on recipient countries’ total import of American products. The evidence we provide suggests a positive and robust relationship and thus it is consistent with the argument that U.S. food aid helped to create larger markets for U.S. producers.     

How sensitive is U.S. agricultural trade to the bilateral exchange rate? Evidence from bulk,intermediate, and consumer‐oriented products

This article examines the dynamic effects of changes in bilateral exchange rates on changes in bilateral trade of bulk, intermediate, and consumer‐oriented agricultural products between the United States and its 10 major trading partners. We find that, for consumer‐oriented products, U.S. exports are highly sensitive to bilateral exchange rates in both the short and long run, while U.S. imports are mostly responsive only in the short run. For bulk products, on the other hand, U.S. exports and imports are relatively insensitive to exchange rate changes in both the short and long run. For intermediate products, exports and imports are responsive to exchange rate changes in the short run, but not in the long run. It is also found that income of the United States and its trading partners has a significant effect on U.S. exports and imports of the three types of agricultural products in both the short and long run.     

Changing the U.S. Sugar Program into a Standard Crop Program: Consequences under the North American Free Trade Agreement and Doha

We analyze the impact of continuing the existing U.S. sugar program, replacing it with a standard program, and implementing the standard program with multilateral trade liberalization. Under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), duty-free sugar imports from Mexico could undermine the program's ability to operate on a "no-cost" basis to taxpayers as large public stocks of sugar could accumulate. The replacement of the current sugar program by one similar to other major U.S. crop programs would solve the problem of potential stock accumulation, accommodate further trade liberalization under a new WTO and future bilateral trade agreements, but would induce significant fiscal outlays through direct payments.     

THE SHORT-RUN IMPACT OF BEEF IMPORTS ON U.S. MEAT PRICES

This paper contains short-run estimates of the impact of beef imports from Australia and elsewhere on U.S. retail meat prices. The U.S. beef demand is separated into two categories, table cuts and processed items. Estimates of direct and cross price elasticities of demand for these products are used together with elasticity estimates for other meats and other foods to assess the effect of imports on prices and upon various portions of the Consumer Price Index.     

An econometric analysis of U.S. vital wheat gluten imports

In light of the wheat wet milling industry's development in the E.C. and of the prominent role U.S imports play in the international market for wheat gluten, this paper discusses the international market for wheat gluten, an important component of processed grain products. An econometric analysis of the U.S. import demand for wheat gluten is undertaken. The price of flour, income, and the U.S. value of wheat protein are found to be important determinants of wheat gluten imports.     

Econometric Examination of U.S. Potato-Related Market Relationships

Abstract

Modeling results, from a U.S. International Trade Commission investigation, that illuminate potato-related competitive conditions, particularly U.S. market impacts of potato imports, are presented. Estimation and simulation results of a monthJy vector autoregression model of the U.S. fresh and frozen trench fry markets suggest that the own-price elasticity of fresh table potato demand is more moderately elastic than previously thought; that U.S. fresh potato and trench fry markets only modestly interact, because the fresh table market residually and infrequently supplies raw product to processors; and that increased U.S. imports of fresh Canadian potatoes are likely a regional problem in Northeast U.S. markets, and do not appreciably influence potato-related prices or quantities nationally. Given the scarce potato-related literature, the model's estimated market parameters arc of interest.     

The role of intellectual property rights in seed technology transfer through trade: evidence from U.S. field crop seed exports

A panel of 134 countries over the period 1985–2010 is used to evaluate the effect of intellectual property rights (IPRs) on field crop seed imports from the United States. Based on estimating a gravity equation using the Heckman selection and Poisson fixed‐effects panel econometric methods, the results indicate that membership of countries in both the International Union for the Protection of New Varieties of Plants and the Trade‐Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights Agreement of the World Trade Organization have a positive and statistically significant effect on their imports of U.S. field crop seeds. These results, however, are also sensitive to both income level of importing countries and better enforcement of IPRs by those countries.     

ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS OF BRAND ADVERTISING PROGRAMMES FOR U.S. ORANGE JUICE IN THE EUROPEAN MARKET: AN ERROR COMPONENT ANALYSIS

An econometric model is used to measure the impact of the Three-Party Programme on European demand for U.S. orange juice. The results show that the programme has helped expand the demand for orange juice in European countries and, from the viewpoint of the U.S. citrus industry, is an economically preferred way of generating additional exports compared with using price reductions to achieve additional sales.     

Alternative U.S. and EU Sugar Trade Liberalization Policies and Their Implications

This study analyzes the impacts of alternative trade liberalization policies in the United States and the European Union (EU) on the U.S. sugar industry. A global sugar policy simulation model was used for this analysis. The study results indicate that the U.S. sugar industry may be able to survive if both the United States and the EU liberalize their sugar trade. However, if only the United States eliminates its sugar programs, all U.S. sugar-producing regions would be threatened.